Fox Newspolling in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin found that President Trump trails Democratic challenger Joe Biden in all three of these states, which were won by Trump in 2016. A surprising finding of the report was that many voters prefer Biden over Trump when it comes to handling both crime and the Coronavirus pandemic.
In a head-to-head matchup, likely voters in all three states picked Biden over Trump:
Arizona: Biden-49 Trump-40
North Carolina: Biden-50 Trump-46
Wisconsin: Biden-50 Trump-42
The poll also asked about four issues facing the country: the economy, the pandemic, policing and criminal justice, and dealing with China. Here is who voters trusted “to do a better job” in the three states polled:
The polling showed lopsided support for Joe Biden on the pandemic, but also indicated a surprising weakness for the president on his signature issues. Across the three states, the best Trump could manage was a statistical tie on criminal justice. Joe Biden trailed the president on the economy and China in North Carolina but ranked statistically even with the president in Arizona and Wisconsin on those issues.
It is especially striking that Wisconsin voters preferred Joe Biden to handle policing and criminal justice since Kenosha has been the scene of violent protests and riots since Jacob Blake was shot by police on August 23. The subsequent unrest led to two killings by Kyle Rittenhouse, who is being charged with murder.
The polling also covered senatorial races in Arizona and North Carolina. In Arizona, Republican incumbent Martha McSally is trailing Democrat Mark Kelly by an astonishing 17 points (56-39 percent) in a race that is trending towards a landslide. In North Carolina, Thom Tillis, another Republican incumbent is doing a bit better but still trailing Democrat Cal Cunningham 48-42 percent.
These two races may provide Democrats with two of the three seats that they need to win control of the Senate. A probable loss by Alabama’s Doug Jones would require an additional two Democratic pickups.
The Fox polling only covered three swing states while several others are in play. If only these three states flipped from the 2016 results, Trump would still win the Electoral College by 270-268. Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania provide additional opportunities to put Biden over the top. As I discussed earlier this week, Biden leads in those states as well.
Polling data shows that Trump’s approaches to the plethora of crises facing voters are falling flat with voters. Today marks 60 days until Election Day. If Donald Trump intends to pivot to a more unifying (and competent) strategy that would better appeal to undecided and moderate voters, he is running out of time to do so.
Kyle Rittenhouse, the 17-year-old, who shot and killed two protesters in Kenosha, Wisconsin on Tuesday night and wounded a third, has been arrested by police and charged with murder. Some are calling Rittenhouse a hero while others say that he is a vigilante. As usual, facts can be muddled and internet claims can be exaggerated or fictional, so here is what we know so far.
CBS News reported that numerous cellphone videos showed a man identified as Rittenhouse in the aftermath of the shootings. Rittenhouse, who is not from Kenosha, was arrested at his mother’s house in Antioch, Illinois, about 20 miles away, per the Chicago Tribune. He is reportedly being held without bond pending extradition to Wisconsin.
The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports that Rittenhouse was with armed older men on the night of the shooting. He also appears in photos on Fox News of a group cleaning graffiti earlier on Tuesday. He is not armed in the photos but is seen again later that night, wearing the same clothes but carrying an AR-15, in a video interview posted to Twitter with Richie McGinniss of the Daily Caller.
In the video, Rittenhouse says, “People are getting injured and our job is to protect this business. And my job also is to protect people. If someone is hurt, I’m running into harm’s way. That’s why I have my rifle; I’ve gotta’ protect myself, obviously. But I also have my med kit.”
It is also unclear whether the militia members were asked to defend the property or where they were there on their own initiative. It seems unlikely that Rittenhouse was being paid to do the “job” of protecting the property.
The Journal-Sentinel reports that the Kenosha Guard, a militia group that has organized an “Armed Citizens to Protect our Lives and Property” event on Facebook, has fielded members in response to the demonstrations. However, Justin Mishler, a self-identified member of the Kenosha Guard, said that Rittenhouse is “not one of us.”
Mishler speculated that Rittenhouse may have been a member of the boogaloo, a loosely affiliated militia group that has also been present in Kenosha. However, boogaloo members are often anti-police, unlike the Kenosha Guard, which offered to help local authorities maintain order.
Another Twitter video shows the armed Rittenhouse and other apparent militia members walking around the streets in close proximity to vehicles belonging to the Sheriff’s Department. A voice on the loudspeaker can be heard telling protesters that they are trespassing and to disperse, but the officers offer water to the militia members and tell them, “We appreciate you guys, we really do.”
There are numerous reports that Rittenhouse’s social media accounts showed “Blue Lives Matter” material and photos of himself with a gun similar to the one in the videos from Kenosha. His Facebook page, which has since been taken down, also showed that he belonged to the Grayslake, Lindenhurst, Hainesville Public Safety Cadet program, per the Chicago Tribune. Despite some claims to the contrary, there seems to be no evidence of racist or misogynistic material on Rittenhouse’s social media. Buzzfeed reported on a video that Rittenhouse posted to TikTok showing himself on the front row of a Trump rally in January.
It seems unlikely that Rittenhouse, who greatly admired the police, would have been a part of the boogaloo movement. Even if he was not a part of the Kenosha Guard, he may have been a member of a similar group or simply responded to the open call for assistance on social media.
The events leading up to the shooting are also uncertain at this point. The New York Times has put together a timeline of sorts that places Rittenhouse in the vicinity of a Kenosha car dealership with other self-proclaimed militia members for several hours prior to the shootings. The interview with the Daily Caller reporter and another Facebook live stream broadcast occurred at this point. The video with the police vehicles reportedly was recorded about 15 minutes before the first of two shootings.
Yet another video shows Rittenhouse walking the streets with this rifle about six minutes prior to the shooting. The Twitter thread by a New York Times reporter states that the shooting took place shortly before midnight about four blocks from the car dealership that Rittenhouse had said he was protecting. It is not clear why he was in this area.
The dozens of videos present confused images, but Rittenhouse appears to return fire after a muzzle flashes from the crowd. A protester goes down and then Rittenhouse takes out his phone. As he runs past the camera, he can be heard to say, “I just killed somebody.”
A video showing a different angle on the Twitter thread appears to show Rittenhouse being chased by demonstrators, some of whom are armed. It isn’t known what preceded this video or why Rittenhouse was being chased.
Another video shows a second shooting in which the crowd chases Rittenhouse after identifying him as the person in the original shooting. Rittenhouse is knocked to the ground. He turns and fires at his pursuers. One falls to the pavement while another appears to be hit in the arm and runs away.
A third scene shows Rittenhouse walking up the street with his hands up but still carrying his rifle as police respond to the shooting. A voice yells, “He just shot [unintelligible]. Hey, the dude right here just shot [unintelligible]. The dude right here just shot all of them down there.”
The police vehicles roll by to the scene of the shooting without stopping. This is likely because they were on their way to render aid and did not know that Rittenhouse was the killer. The officers inside the armored vehicles may not have been able to hear the people on the street accusing him. What is certain is that Rittenhouse was not detained but went home.
The Journal-Sentinel identifies the three victims of the shootings. The two dead men were residents of the area while the man wounded in the arm is a member of the Milwaukee-based People’s Revolution Movement and had volunteered as a medic at Black Lives Matter demonstrations in Wisconsin over the past few months. Media sources do not mention any other criminal records on the part of the victims, but Andy Ngo claimed on Twitter that the three all had criminal histories.
The first victim was Joseph Rosenbaum, 36. Rosenbaum was originally from Texas but had moved to the Kenosha area. Anthony Huber, 26, was the second fatality. Photos in The Sun show Huber’s skateboard laying beside him as he falls to the pavement. Another photo posted by Ngo shows Huber hitting Rittenhouse with the skateboard. A GoFundMe page description says that Huber died “while peacefully protesting” as he “selflessly tried to aid in taking down an attacker.”
Whether Rittenhouse was a formal member of a militia or not, the vigilante label does fit. His group had no legal authority to enforce the law and their right to be on the car lot itself was questionable. The fact that police were tacitly encouraging the group’s participation in containing the riots seems to have been poor judgment on the part of Kenosha’s official law enforcement officers.
It is also questionable whether Rittenhouse was legally justified in either shooting. Wisconsin does allow open carry and the Badger State’s laws allow for self-defense without a duty to retreat when a person “reasonably believes that such force is necessary to prevent imminent death or great bodily harm.” Subsequent videos and witness testimony will probably shed more light on how the altercation started.
Self-defense could be claimed more reasonably in the second shooting when Rittenhouse was defending himself from pursuing demonstrators, but that justification may hinge on whether the first shooting was justified. Killing to protect yourself after committing a crime is not self-defense and is specifically excluded in the law.
The Kenosha shootings seem to be a tragic instance in which, like the original shooting of Jacob Blake that prompted the demonstrations, both sides were in the wrong. The demonstrations had turned violent and included property destruction but the actions of the rioters did not provide justification for Rittenhouse and the other militia members to insert themselves into a situation where they had no legal authority to intervene.
In the second shooting, it is very possible that the victims thought that they were doing the right thing in attempting to subdue an active shooter who had already killed a member of the crowd. Both Rittenhouse and Huber may have believed they were legally in the right.
In aviation, we speak of accident chains. It is usually a series of events that leads to an accident, rather than one specific action. In this case, the chain starts with the shooting of Jacob Blake and the decision to take to the streets in protest, the turn toward violence, Rittenhouse’s decision to play soldier, the acceptance of the militia presence by the police, and Rittenhouse’s ultimate decision to pull the trigger make up additional links. If any of these links in the chain had been broken, the two demonstrators would still be alive and Rittenhouse would not be in jail.
The Kenosha shootings show what can happen when untrained and unprepared civilians attempt to do the job of law enforcement. Controlling demonstrations and stopping mobs is difficult and dangerous even for trained professionals. When the militias insert themselves into the mix, the situation becomes even more tense and unstable.
While it seems that Rittenhouse likely went to Kenosha with good intentions, he and the other militia members, especially those from out of town and out of state, had no business being there in the first place. These people, some of who were undoubtedly looking for trouble as much as the rioters were, were probably drawn to Kenosha by a power vacuum as law enforcement failed to protect property and quell the riots. The inadequate police response was another link in the chain.
It is too early to say for certain whether the evidence will ultimately support a claim of self-defense in the shootings, but it is certain that the killings have intensified tensions on both sides. There are fringe members of both sides of the political spectrum who favor violence. With every incident, these people become more convinced that violence is the only answer and the situation spirals further out of control.
There is plenty of blame to go around. Rittenhouse and his colleagues should not have been carrying their guns on the streets of Kenosha, but the demonstrators also should not have rioting and destroying property. State and local law enforcement need to stand up and control the unrest before the situation devolves to one in which vigilante militias feel it necessary to patrol the streets themselves. Police should be better trained and work to avoid questionable shootings. Citizens should cooperate with police so that they don’t get shot. Politicians on both sides should stop stoking the fires under the assumption that unrest will help them politically.
Both sides are showing poor judgment in a situation that is escalating and spiraling out of control. Cooler heads need to prevail before a larger national tinderbox ignites.
Three new Fox News polls sampled voters in the swing states of Arizona, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The news in all three states was not good for the president. Mr. Trump, who won all three states in 2016, now trails Joe Biden in each case.
In the Arizona poll, the president trails his Democratic challenger by a 42-46 margin. On the issues, the economy was the only area in which Trump scored better than Biden (by 48-41 percent). Shockingly, Biden even edged out Trump on immigration in this border state by one percentage point. Trump’s net approval rating in Arizona was negative-six points.
The poll also showed that Arizona is a likely spot for a Senate pick-up for Democrats. The poll showed Republican incumbent Martha McSally trailing Democrat Mark Kelly by 13 points.
In Ohio, which has seemed increasingly Republican, the Fox poll showed Biden with a two-point lead (45-43 percent). This is well within the 3.5-point margin of error for the poll. In Ohio, Trump’s 50-percent approval rating gave him a net approval of two points.
Moving to Wisconsin, the poll found Trump trailing Biden by nine points (40-49 percent). The president’s net approval in the state was negative-nine points, closely mirroring the difference in the head-to-head matchup.
President Trump’s poor response to the three crises of Coronavirus, the recession, and the race riots seemed to be driving much of the opposition to his re-election. While Trump scored best on the economy in all three states, Biden rated better on race relations and Coronavirus in all three cases. On immigration, the only other issue tested, Biden was preferred in Arizona (which was a statistical tie on the question) and Wisconsin. Ohio voters liked Trump’s approach to immigration.
As I frequently point out, individual polls are a single data point and should be treated with caution. There are also additional swing states to consider. In addition to the three surveyed by Fox News, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania are likely battleground states this year. For a more complete look at polling in all seven swing states, all of which were won by Trump in 2016, here is a rundown based on Real Clear Politics averages:
Arizona: Biden leads by 2.8 points
Florida: Biden leads by 3.4 points
Michigan: Biden leads by 4.2 points
North Carolina: Biden leads by 0.8 points
Ohio: Biden leads by 1.0 point
Pennsylvania: Biden leads by four points [As a caveat, Trump held a four point lead in the only May poll, but Biden has led in every other recent poll.]
Wisconsin: Biden leads by 3.4 percent
Based on these polling averages and assuming that the tossup states of North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania go to Trump, Joe Biden would win the electoral vote by 288-250 if the election were held today.
I frequently hear from Trump supporters who are skeptical of all polls since polling pointed toward a Hillary Clinton victory in 2016. In most cases, the surprise states of 2016 were polling within the margin of error by Election Day, and the final Electoral College result hinged on about 70,000 votes. It is whistling past the graveyard to assume that Donald Trump can repeat that performance this year. If Biden still leads in all swing states in November, Trump will have to defy the odds and run the table to keep his job.
Increasingly, the polling for 2020 is not close. On the contrary, more and more red states seem to be moving towards battleground status. For example, the Real Clear Politics average shows Trump only holding a two-point lead in Texas. Likewise, Arizona used to be reliably Republican.
The polling does not predict with certainty that Trump will lose in November, but it is a warning sign that his re-election campaign is in trouble. To turn the tide, the president must change his image, but he seems incapable of doing so.
Iwrote yesterday about the tight racesbetween Donald Trump and Joe Biden in four swing states. Now, a new poll is out that takes a look at three of those states in the Rust Belt. The news is not good for the president.
A newIpsos pollof registered voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin shows the president trailing his presumptive Democratic challenger in all three states. The survey showed Biden leading by 3 points in Wisconsin, 6 points in Pennsylvania, and 8 points in Michigan.
If the president loses all three states and there are no other changes from the 2016 results, he would lose the Electoral College by a260-278 margin. As I discussed yesterday, thepresident is also trailing in Arizonaso Biden has multiple paths to victory.
The poll had a margin of error of five points for each state so Wisconsin could be considered a statistical tie. Biden’s lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania is outside the margin of error.
Biden’s lead in the poll has expanded over his 3-4-point lead earlier this year. Interestingly, this suggests that Biden is gaining ground even though he has not been able to hold campaign events due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Given Mr. Biden’s penchant for gaffes, he may be doing better by not not holding events.
The results also suggest that the focus on President Trump, who is holding daily press briefings, has not helped his campaign. The president’s daily briefings have come under widespread criticism for his misinformation and misstatements.
Even though Trump has higher approval in these battleground states than he does nationally, his approval rating is still underwater in all three states. His net approval is -6 points in Wisconsin, -4 in Pennsylvania, and -12 in Michigan.
The poll does support the idea that Trump’s handling of the pandemic has hurt him. At 48 percent, Coronavirus is the top concern of voters in all states, and the president rates 20 points below state governors for his reaction to the crisis.
There are many wild cards for the upcoming election but the president has his work cut out for him in making up the deficit against Biden. Among the unknowns are how quickly the economy will recover and whether a second wave of the pandemic will strike before November. In the meantime, if President Trump wants to stem the bleeding, he should leave the press briefings to Drs. Fauci and Birx and Vice President Pence.
Wisconsin’s primary election was canceled for a few hours on Monday, but then it was back on. After working with legislative Republicans for the past week to try to reach an agreement to postpone the election, Gov. Tony Evers (D) issued an Executive Order moving the election to June 9. A few hours later,Wisconsin’s Supreme Court overturned the orderand decreed that the election must go on.
Politico reported over the weekend that 10 mayors representing more than a million people had signed a joint letter asking the state government to delay the election. Following the letter, Evers called a special session on Saturday to consider a delay after weeks of party squabbling had failed to produce an agreement.
Evers, who had not called for delaying the election before last Friday, proposed a measure that would allow an all-mail election and extend the deadline for ballots. Republicans did not act on the measure, saying that the move was too late.
Before issuing his Executive Order delaying the election, Evers had tweeted only five days ago, “If I could have changed the election on my own I would have but I can’t without violating state law.” There were no known changes to the Wisconsin constitution or election laws over the past week.
We have three branches of government to ensure a system of checks and balances, and questions about our elections typically rely on all three playing a role. If I could have changed the election on my own I would have but I can’t without violating state law.
The order from the state Supreme Court does lay the seeds for more competent handling of future elections. Per the Wisconsin State Journal, the court let stand Gov. Evers’ call for a special session that could set rules for elections in future crises. Republicans are not expected to take action, however.
The back-and-forth over the election has led to an unprecedented level of requests for absentee ballots. The number of requests has led to delays in receiving absentee ballots, which must be postmarked by Election Day per the US Supreme Court.
For those voters choosing to vote in person, there will be problems as well. Shortages of poll workers and concerns about infections mean that there will be far fewer polling places than normal. The city of Milwaukee normally has 180 polling places but this on Tuesday will only have five. Long lines at polling places are expected, which probably represents a nightmare for Drs. Fauci and Birx.
Joe Biden is expected to win the presidential primary handily but turnout will be a wild card. Three polls taken in March showed Biden with a growing lead over Bernie Sanders. The most recent poll, by Marquette University, gave the former vice president a 28-point lead.
With most states delaying elections due to the pandemic, Wisconsin may be the only state to hold an in-person election in April. In terms of epidemiological studies, the sole election in the midst of a pandemic could be a valuable case study on the spread of a communicable disease. However, in terms of governance, it represents a political system that has failed to protect the citizens of the state from an existential threat.
