Have Democrats Learned That Voters Want A Moderate?

More than six months after what many pundits predicted would be a flash in the pan, Joe Biden still sits atop Democratic primary polls. The reason for Biden’s preeminence is simple: He is the dominant moderate in a race filled with progressives. Even though moderates do not represent a majority of Democratic primary voters, the moderate niche is large enough to allow Biden to sit atop the cluster of progressives competing for votes among a divided group of leftists. The situation is very similar to how Donald Trump’s plurality allowed him to win the Republican nomination in 2016 amid thanks to Republican primary voters divided between Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich.

Now, after months of watching Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders vie for second place, another Democrat is contesting Biden for the moderate lane. Pete Buttigieg has exhibited a rise in the polls, doubling his share of voters since the beginning of October, per the Real Clear Politics average. Buttigieg now stands at 11 percent, which earns him an increasingly close fourth place. Aside from the Big Three, Mayor Pete is the only candidate to poll at more than 10 percent.

Whether Buttigieg is a moderate depends on how you define “moderate.” Jill Lawrence noted in USA Today that “his résumé includes service as a Navy intelligence officer in Afghanistan and three years at the management consulting firm McKinsey & Co.” and adds, “He’s religious and married (and also, by the way, gay).” Lawrence also notes that his public option health plan “for all who want it” is less radical than the Medicare-for-all plans of many of his opponents.

On the subject of health, it is also relevant to note that Elizabeth Warren’s Icarus-like journey to tie Joe Biden at the top of the polls only to fall apart and begin a long, slow crash back to ignominy can be traced to her radical health care reform plan. When Warren released her much-vaunted Medicare-for-all plan, even Democrats blanched at her sweeping plan to remake America’s health care system as well as its associated price tag.

Elizabeth Warren wasn’t the only candidate whose campaign flamed out over an overly radical platform. Beto O’Rourke, who got off to a quick start by raising more than six million dollars (enough to build a bionic man in 1973), failed to energize his flagging campaign by promising to confiscate assault rifles and tax churches. Progressives failed to rally to Beto’s liberal Christmas list, perhaps recognizing that these positions were too far out of the mainstream to be accepted by a majority of voters.

A third Democrat who succumbed to progressive preferences was Kamala Harris. There is more than one reason for Harris’ failure to launch, but one factor was that she catered her campaign to “woke” Twitter. In so doing, she failed to attract enough mainstream Democrats to keep her campaign going.  

But the fact that Buttigieg is appealing to moderate Democrats doesn’t mean that he is a moderate, especially in Republican terms. “Moderate” to Democrats means something different than it does to Republicans. Even a moderate Democrat is going to hold positions that most conservatives would consider to be deal-breakers. For conservatives, a voluntary public option is scarcely better than Medicaid-for-all and even though Buttigieg is a Christian, his religious views are far from harmonized with conservative evangelicals, especially when it comes to abortion. Mayor Pete may not be a true moderate but he does seem to appeal to moderate Democrats who aren’t sold on Joe Biden.

In fact, it’s difficult to say exactly what Buttigieg really is. As a city mayor, he doesn’t have much of a track record on national issues. As with other recent candidates such as Barack Obama and Donald Trump, his scant history makes Buttigieg a blank slate onto which supporters and opponents can project what they want to see.

Whether Buttigieg continues to surge or becomes another also-ran, it seems that Democratic voters are increasingly looking towards the moderates for their candidate. If Buttigieg falters, Andrew Yang and Amy Klobuchar seem likely to inherit the moderate-but-not-Biden niche.

However, in the end, Joe Biden is the heavy favorite to win the Democratic nomination. His victory will be in no small part due to the support of the largest moderate segment of the Democratic coalition, a demographic that is both staunchly Democrat and heavily Christian. It is a core group with which other Democrats, such as Buttigieg, have been able to make little headway against Biden.

Black voters will be the moderate kingmakers who propel Biden to the nomination.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Trump's election rigging claims debunked

As Donald Trump declined in the polls, he began making claims that elections are rigged and that the system is stacked against him. Trump even went so far as to say that he may not accept the decision of the voters on November 8.

It is true that there have been recent instances of voter fraud in this country. The 2008 Senate race in which Democrat Al Franken beat incumbent Republican Norm Coleman stands as one of the sleaziest episodes in recent electoral history. Democrats “found” enough votes in recounts to turn a Coleman victory into a Franken upset. A watchdog group later found that enough felons had voted illegally to sway the election.

The electoral system is not foolproof. Even in states with voter ID laws, there are ways to commit voter fraud. People can vote in more than one state. They can abuse absentee ballots. They can buy votes. Elected officials or political groups can suppress or intimidate voters.

There is an easy way to tell if Donald Trump is in danger of losing the election due to a rigged system. If the system is rigged against Republicans, then the Democrats orchestrating the fraud would probably want to elect Democrats to Congress as well as the White House. If Democrats are manipulating the races and polling, then Democratic congressional candidates should be performing as well as Hillary Clinton. Republican candidates should be performing as poorly as Mr. Trump. A quick look at several hotly contested races should determine whether Trump’s charge of election rigging is accurate.

• ·         In Florida, Donald Trump trails Hillary Clinton by four points according to the Real Clear Politics average. In contrast, Senator Marco Rubio leads his Democrat challenger by a five-point average. Marco Rubio performed so well at his debate this week that Democrats have cut off funding to his challenger. Florida is a must-win state for Trump.
• ·         In the blue state of Illinois, Clinton leads by an average of 15 points. Tammy Duckworth, the Democrat challenging Republican Mark Kirk also holds a lead, but by only seven points.
• ·         Trump trails Hillary Clinton by four points in Nevada. Republican Joe Heck and Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto are locked in a close race for Harry Reid’s Senate seat.
• ·         In New Hampshire, Trump trails Clinton by eight points. Kelly Ayotte, the incumbent Republican, is in a close race with Maggie Hassan. Most polling shows the race in a dead heat, but one outlier poll shows Hassan up by nine points.
• ·         In Ohio, another state critical to the Trump campaign, the presidential race is in a statistical tie. On the other hand, Senator Rob Portman, the Republican incumbent is cruising to reelection with a 15-point lead.

The story is the same in other states as well. Trump is running behind Republican Senators in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In Texas, where there is no Senate race this year, Clinton polls within five points of Trump. Mitt Romney won this reddest of red states by 16 points.

In one interesting case, Trump actually trails Clinton by one point, within the margin of error, in Arizona. John McCain, the incumbent Republican who is reviled by many as a “Republican in name only,” leads his Democratic opponent by 15 points. Arizona is not normally a swing state.

In state after state, Donald Trump performs poorly when compared to other Republican candidates. If there was really a conspiracy to rig the vote against Mr. Trump, his Democrat opponents would probably scheme to defraud Republican congressional candidates as well. There is no indication that this is happening.

Trump’s performance seems to be poor across the board. He lags behind other Republicans in red, blue and swing states. Trump is in trouble regardless of whether local voters are conservative or liberal and whether election officials are Democrats or Republicans.  

Since many of the same voters who prefer a Republican congressional candidate over a Democrat choose Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, Trump’s theory of rigged elections can be discarded. If, after watching him for a year, voters, including many Republicans, are rejecting The Donald, he should bear the blame himself and accept responsibility.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Millennial voters want Obama as president for life

A new poll of millennial voters has disturbing news for conservatives who hope to see liberty and constitutional rights extended to the next generation. When asked to choose between Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump or several alternatives, a plurality of millennials selected a life term for President Obama.

The survey by UMASS Lowell asked respondents to select between five alternatives. The choices were a “(1) a Clinton Presidency, (2) a Trump Presidency, (3) Obama appointing himself to a life term as President, (4) A giant meteor strikes the earth and extinguishes all human life and (5) the President is selected by a random lottery from among all U.S. citizens.”

The results found that “39% of millennials prefer that Obama serve a life term as President rather than have either a Clinton or Trump Presidency, 26% prefer a random lottery to either serving as President, and 23% (nearly 1 in 4!) prefer a giant meteor and the extinguishing of human life….” On an individual basis, voters preferred a lifetime Obama presidency to Trump by 66 percent and to Clinton by 51 percent.

Sixty-seven percent preferred a random lottery to being governed by Donald Trump. Thirty-nine percent would rather have a lottery than President Clinton. This hearkens to William F. Buckley’s statement that, “I should sooner live in a society governed by the first two thousand names in the Boston telephone directory than in a society governed by the two thousand faculty members of Harvard University.”

The reference to SMOD, the “sweet meteor of death,” that has become a running joke this campaign season is amusing. The millennials who selected an extinction level event for the human race over Trump and Hillary shouldn’t necessarily be taken seriously. After all, four years of Trump or Hillary isn’t literally the end of the world.

On the other hand, the idea of a strong leader who can bend Congress and the courts to his will is a real threat to a constitutional republic. The idea of Obama as a benevolent dictator is not entirely new. In 2015, a Rasmussen poll found that 26 percent of likely voters believed that President Obama should ignore the courts “if they are standing in the way of actions he feels are important for the country.” An even higher share of Democrats, 43 percent, agreed with only 35 percent opposed to the idea.

America’s system of government is broken and millennials realize this. The rub is that they probably don’t realize what they wish for longing for a president-for-life. Part of the blame lies with liberal-leaning colleges and universities that whitewash the crimes against humanity of communism. Part of the blame lies with a dysfunctional Congress and judiciary. Part of the blame lies with conservatives who have not instilled a love for liberty and respect for the Constitution and rule of law in their children.

As Ronald Reagan said, “Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children's children what it was once like in the United States where men were free.”

This poll should be a wakeup call.

Originally published on The Resurgent

President Obama admits that Voter ID is not voter suppression

President Obama admitted to the nation on Tuesday that controversial voter ID laws do not suppress the minority vote. The president, speaking in a radio interview, said that the primary reason that minority voters stay away from the polls was apathy.

Speaking on “Keeping It Real” with Al Sharpton, President Obama admitted, “Most of these laws are not preventing the overwhelming majority of folks who don't vote from voting. Most people do have an ID. Most people do have a driver's license. Most people can get to the polls. It may not be as convenient; it may be a little more difficult. There may be a few people who are impeded.”

The Justice Department, led by Obama appointee Eric Holder, had argued precisely the opposite. In challenges to numerous state voter ID laws, the government had argued that the laws were unfair to minority voters and liberals charged that they were an attempt to suppress black voters, who traditionally support Democrats.

Obama’s admission comes in the wake of the recent Supreme Court decision upholding the new Texas voter ID law for this year’s midterm elections. In addition to a battle for control of the U.S. Senate, the election in Texas features a heated gubernatorial race between Republican Greg Abbott and Wendy Davis, a rising star of the Democratic Party.

In the same interview, Obama answered Sharpton’s query about people who were worried about the reliability of vulnerable Democrats. “Here’s the bottom line,” Obama said, “We’ve got a tough map. A lot of the states that are contested this time are states that I didn’t win. So some of the candidates there, it’s difficult for them to have me in the state because the Republicans will use that to try to fan Republican turnout. The bottom line though is these are all folks who vote with me, they have supported my agenda in Congress….” The president continued, “They are the right side of minimum wage, they are on the right side of fair pay, they are on the right side of rebuilding our infrastructure, they are on the right side of early childhood education. So this isn’t about my feelings being hurt. These are folks who are strong allies and supporters of me and I tell them, you do what you need to win….”

Voter ID laws have generally been upheld by the Supreme Court. According to Ballotpedia, 19 states, including Georgia, now have laws on the books requiring voters to present photo identification.

Read the full article on Examiner.com

How to solve the GOP problem with minorities and millennnials

Barack Obama’s two presidential election victories were built on the backs of three groups in which he received landslide victories. Obama won with margins on the order of two-to-one with black, Hispanic and young voters both times he ran. These lopsided numbers provided him with the slim margin that he needed to eke out a victory over Mitt Romney in spite of a strong showing by Romney among white voters. If any Republican hopes to win a national election in the future, it is axiomatic that he must slice deeply into the Democratic advantage with minority and millennial voters.

 The Democratic plan has been one of targeting their message to individual demographic groups in a divide-and-conquer strategy. Black voters are told that Republicans are racist and want to suppress them at the polls and repeal the Voting Rights Act. Hispanics are told that Republicans are racist and want to deport them. Millennials are swayed by Obama’s “cool” factor. The razor thin rationales targeting the various demographic groups should be permeable to Republican attacks.

President Obama’s unpopularity and the failure of his agenda present a unique opportunity for Republicans. Voters who were firmly in the Obama camp may now be willing to listen to alternative viewpoints. Charles Ellison recently wrote in The Root that dissatisfaction with the president and high black unemployment are resulting in tempered black support for Democratic candidates. Likewise, high unemployment among millennials may hurt their support for Democrats as well. With respect to Hispanics, Democrats have promised immigration reform for six years and failed to deliver.

The necessary first step for Republicans is to remove the stumbling blocks that prevent minorities from voting for Republican candidates. Republican candidates should put themselves in the shoes of minority voters and acknowledge that black and Hispanic Americans do have a different experience than white Americans. Republicans should take this into account and consider how certain messages will sound to minority voters.

Guilt by association is real. Conservatives should temper their enthusiasm for the defense of people like George Zimmerman and Darren Wilson. Springing to the defense of alleged murderers, especially before all the facts are known, is just as wrong as calling for their heads. Conservatives should also distance themselves from racists such as Cliven Bundy and Donald Sterling. These people have the freedom to spout racist nonsense, but they don’t have the freedom to duck the consequences.

Conservatives should also refrain from pointing out that Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson and the other race baiters are the real racists. It’s obvious, but also irrelevant, that there is a double standard.
The biggest stumbling block for Hispanics is immigration. The Tea Party fringe that insists on deportation and no “amnesty,” by which they mean any immigration reform, seems bent on driving Latinos permanently into the Democratic camp. These opponents of “amnesty” claim not to the see the problems in the current system in which businesses and farms depend on immigrant labor, but under which legal immigration can take decades.

The next step for Republicans is to show up. Republican candidates should make frequent visits to ethnic neighborhoods and listen to the voters there. This should not merely be an election year exercise. They should forge long-term relationships with community leaders. It is harder to paint a Republican as an evil racist if the people already know and trust him. Minority voters won’t vote for Republicans if Republican candidates don’t show up to ask for their votes.

Finally, Republicans should find out where a majority Americans agree with them and oppose the Democrats. An October 2014 Gallup poll found that the top three issues for voters were the economy (17 percent), dissatisfaction with government (16 percent) and unemployment/jobs (10 percent). These were the only issues to rank in double-digits and, coincidentally, a separate Gallup poll found that voters favor Republicans on these issues. These are the issues that Republicans should be talking about.

While Republicans should not mimic the Democratic ploy of making separate promises to different demographic groups, they should target campaign messages to different groups. While it is true that a rising tide lifts all boats and that conservative principles would benefit the nation as a whole, Republicans can no longer simply spin out a generic message and wait for minority voters to flock to their banner.

The best strategy may be to take the advice of economist Arthur Brooks, who wrote in the Wall St. Journal that conservatives must make their policies personal to voters instead of railing against abstract ideas and things. By connecting with voters on a personal level and explaining how conservative ideas can help the poor, Brooks says, “Conservative leaders will be able to stand before Americans who are struggling and feel marginalized and say, ‘We will fight for you and your family, whether you vote for us or not’—and truly mean it.”

This means that conservatives should spend less time talking about abstract ideas and social issues. Republicans must deemphasize issues like abortion, marriage and even the repeal of ObamaCare. They should completely stop talking about things like amnesty, impeachment, and birth certificates. At best these issues are divisive. At worst, they alienate voters.

What Republicans should spend more time talking about how is Democratic policies hurt real people and their families, playing to their advantage on the economy and jobs. Republican candidates should stand with the unemployed who have been unable to find jobs in the Obama economy, the family breadwinner struggling to support a family on less than he made in 2008, the college graduate with no employment prospects and the cancer patient whose health insurance policy was canceled due to the Affordable Care Act. Republicans should make an emotional connection with voters by putting names and faces to real effects of the Obama agenda.

When the Republicans win control of the Senate, passing immigration reform unilaterally should be a top priority. If President Obama chooses to veto Republican immigration reform, the Democrats might well incur the wrath of Hispanic voters, while the Republicans could, for once, be the party of “si’.” Democrats promised immigration reform for six years, but didn’t deliver. This leaves the GOP with an opportunity. One need look back no further than 2004, or even more recently to Chris Christie in New Jersey and Rick Perry in Texas, to see that a conservative can win Hispanic votes.

With respect to millennials, emphasizing jobs and playing down social issues may help the GOP since younger voters tend to be more liberal on social issues, but may lean conservative on size and role of government. Removing Obama from the ballot may help as well. Potential Democratic candidates such as Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Elizabeth Warren lack the president’s hipness and youth appeal. In the pre-Obama elections, young voters were more closely divided. George W. Bush even tied the demographic with Al Gore in 2000.

Republicans don’t have to change their principles or write off entire demographics to the Democrats, but neither will these groups simply fall into the GOP camp by default. To win these voters, Republicans must show up, listen to their concerns, and convince them that conservative ideas will make their lives better. Read the rest on Examiner.com

Polling predicts Romney landslide

As the presidential election enters the home stretch, the race is still tight according to the polls. Most recent national polls now give Mitt Romney the edge. Gallup shows Obama trailing by five points nationally. According to a new Rasmussen poll released today, Romney leads 49-47 percent.

In the swing states, many races are trending towards Romney as well. In Florida (29 electoral votes), the majority of polls show Romney in the lead. This is also true in North Carolina (15 votes).

The swing states of Virginia and Ohio remain a statistical tie. In both states, however, President Obama is polling at less than 50 percent, a bad sign for an incumbent. In Virginia (13 votes), Real Clear Politics average of polls shows the president with an average of 47 percent. In Ohio (18 votes), President Obama gets 48 percent. The most recent poll in Ohio is a Rasmussen sample that shows Mitt Romney leading 50-48.

Historical precedent shows that undecided voters usually vote against the incumbent. Polling Report studies found that over 80 percent of the time, undecided voters chose the challenger. The Incumbent Rule holds that incumbents rarely get a higher percentage of the vote than they receive in pre-election polls. This means that Mitt Romney will probably win in both Ohio and Virginia. These victories would give Romney 266 electoral votes, four short of the 270 required to win the White House.

There are many opportunities to win the extra four votes. In six states, President Obama leads in the polling, but with less than 50 percent. These states include Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. A win in any of these states along with victories in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia would seal Mitt Romney’s victory. Current polling suggests that he may win all of them. Currently polling also suggests that Oregon, where the president is polling at 48 percent, may be in play.

The situation is discouraging for Obama because the states in play are all states that he won in 2008. There are no states that voted for McCain in 2008 that are trending toward Obama this year. Several possible swing states (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) are normally solidly Democratic.

The only swing state in which President Obama is polling at 50 percent or more is Nevada. Polls there have showed the president with 50 to 51 percent according to Real Clear Politics. This suggests a one to two point victory over Mitt Romney.

If the Incumbent Rule holds true, Mitt Romney will win the election with 331 electoral votes to Barack Obama’s 207. You can view the Atlanta Conservative Examiner’s prediction of the election’s outcome in detail on 270towin.com. You can also create your own electoral map.

Mitt Romney will also win the popular vote, avoiding a repeat of the divisive aftermath of the 2000 election in which George W. Bush won the electoral vote by winning Florida, but lost the popular vote to Vice President Al Gore. Based on current polls, Romney should win approximately 53 percent of the popular vote.

The idea of a Republican landslide in the presidential election is also supported by Gallup’s party identification poll. At this point in 2008, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 34 to 33 percent with 32 percent considering themselves independent. In 2010, Democrats still outnumbered Republicans, this time by 32 to 29 percent. Independents had increased to 36 percent. The most recent data, from September 2012, shows 28 percent Republican, 32 percent Democrat, and 38 percent independent. This is almost identical to 2010, when the Republicans won a congressional landslide.

Additionally, the Associated Press reported last week that Mitt Romney had closed the gender gap with President Obama as well. At one time, Obama had a 16 point advantage among women. The recent AP-Gfk poll now shows the two candidates tied at 47-47 among women. Previous polls have shown the president losing support among black voters and young voters, two core constituencies from 2008.

Barring a successful last-minute October surprise, it seems almost certain that Mitt Romney will not only win the presidential election, but that he will do so handily. What was a close race throughout the summer now seems to be trending toward a landslide.

Originally published on Examiner.com
http://www.examiner.com/article/polling-points-to-romney-landslide?cid=db_articles

Will the real party of the rich please stand up?

The release of more of Mitt Romney’s tax returns on his campaign website recently is sure to spark a new discussion on wealth and politics. A letter from Romney’s accountants notes that the Romneys paid an average federal tax rate of 20.2 percent between 1990 and 2009. In 2011, the Romney’s paid an effective rate of 14.1 percent on a taxable income of $13.7 million. Romney’s income was mostly from investment returns which had already been taxed as the corporate income. The U.S. has the world’s highest tax rate on corporate income.

Democrats have long accused the Republicans of being the party of the rich and have attacked Romney’s nomination on the grounds that he would cut taxes on the wealthy and raise them on everyone else. In reality, both Romney and President Obama are millionaires, as are almost half of the members of Congress.

According to the Center for Responsive Politics 47 percent of congressional representatives are millionaires. In the current term, Republicans have 110 millionaires in the House of Representatives compared with 73 Democrats. In the Senate, Democratic millionaires outnumber Republicans 37-30. These numbers are probably a reflection of the fact that the Republicans hold a majority in the House while Democrats control the Senate.

In Georgia, 11 Alive reports that three of the top four representatives are Republican. Rep. Tom Price (R-6) is the wealthiest, followed by Senator Johnny Isakson and Rep. Phil Gingrey (R-11). At fourth is the wealthiest Georgia Democrat, Rep. John Barrow (D-12). Since 2010, Republicans hold eight of Georgia’s 13 House seats and both Senate seats.

For the poorest Georgia representatives, the reverse is true. Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R-3) is the poorest Republican. Below him are Democrats John Lewis (D-5), Hank Johnson (D-4) and Sanford Bishop (D-2). Interestingly, 11 Alive notes that Johnson has a net worth of zero and Bishop has an estimated net worth of negative $159,496. Bishop’s debt stems from legal bills from a GBI investigation into possible nepotism according to a report from Macon’s WMAZ. Bishop was cleared of wrongdoing.

CNN exit polls from 2008 show that it was Barack Obama who won the millionaire vote that year. Obama won the majority of voters who earn more than $200,000 by a margin of 52-46 percent. Obama also won majorities of voters who earn less than $50,000. John McCain won most of the middle class vote however.

According to CNN’s polling from 2004, George W. Bush handily won both the middle and upper class vote. John Kerry only prevailed with voters who earned less than $50,000. Polling Report shows similar results from 2000. Al Gore won the lower income vote while upper and middle class voters went for Bush.

In general, wealthy voters seem to alternate between the Republicans and Democrats while the Democrats always win lower income voters and the Republicans win the middle class. The last time that a Democrat won the middle class was in 1996 according to CNN when Ross Perot acted as a spoiler and stripped votes away from Republican Bob Dole. The wealthy voted for Dole that year.

A similar result was found in 1992 when Clinton faced George Herbert Walker Bush and Ross Perot. Bush and Clinton split the wealthy vote at 41 percent each according to CNN, but Clinton won both lower and middle class voters.

An interesting experiment is to correlate the ten wealthiest zip codes with political preference. Of these, six are represented by Democrats and four by Republicans. The wealthiest zip code in the country is represented in Congress by Henry Waxman, a California Democrat. The wealthiest Republican zip code is represented by Allen West of West Palm Beach, Fl. In one St. Louis, Mo. zip code ranked eighth on the list there are three representatives. Two Democrats represent half the zip code while one Republican represents the other half.

In contrast, when the poorest zip codes are examined, Democrats represent seven of the bottom ten. The poorest zip code in the country is in the Andover, Mass. district of Democrat Nikki Tsongas.

When the entire congressional district’s wealth is considered, the results are much the same. MeasureofAmerica.org lists the top five congressional districts by income. Of these, the top three are Democratic. The fourth and fifth place districts are Republican.

With respect to the current presidential election, recent polling by Gallup supports the historical trend of low income voters supporting Democrats and Romney wins voters who earn between $48,000 and $99,000. Obama wins a slice of upper middle class voters from $90,000 to $120,000. Currently, Mitt Romney is the favorite of voters who earn more than $120,000 with an almost double digit lead.

In general it can be said that the Democrats have a lock on lower income voters while Republicans almost always win the middle class. Neither party is the exclusive province of wealthy voters, however. The wealthy vote for different goes for candidates of different parties and candidate of the wealthy does not always win. It can be said however, that most of the wealthiest congressional districts do vote Democrat.

Originally published on Examiner.com

The Obama convention bounce is a myth

The supposed post-convention bounce in the polls that President Obama enjoyed briefly seems to have evaporated. Of the three most recent polls, all of likely voters, two show the race as a statistical dead heat. The outlier poll shows Obama with a six point lead.

Rasmussen’s daily presidential tracking poll now shows Obama leading Romney 46-45 percent. Five percent are still undecided while four percent prefer another candidate. Rasmussen notes that when “leaners” are included, Romney leads 48-47. A Washington Post/ABC News poll found similar results. President Obama led Mitt Romney 49-48 among likely voters in that poll. The outlier was the CNN/ORC poll in which 52 percent preferred Obama to Romney’s 46 percent.

In all cases the polls do not reflect the disturbing events of the past few days. On September 11, rioters stormed the U.S. embassy in Cairo, an event which first prompted the Obama Administration to condemn “those who abuse the universal right of free speech” according to Politico. Yesterday, the U.S. ambassador to Libya and three other Americans were killed in an attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi.

Domestically, the September jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was disappointing even though the unemployment rate edged down slightly to 8.1 percent as many people stopped looking for work. The 96,000 jobs added in August were below the average for the year and below the number needed to account for population growth. The BLS also revised downward the job estimates for July.

The president may also be potentially embarrassed the teacher strike in Chicago, part of which he represented in the Illinois state senate. Rahm Emmanuel, President Obama’s former chief of staff, is now the mayor of Chicago. The strike returns the issue of public employee unions to the forefront. The Chicago teachers are demanding pay raises even though Chicago Public Schools are currently operating at a $665 million deficit. If the raises are granted, the school system deficit would rise to $1 billion according to the Chicago Sun Times. Pay raises would likely mean that tax increases in a city that already has some of the highest taxes in the nation.

It was also revealed last week that the Department of Justice is suing Gallup, a prominent polling organization. According to the DOJ, the suit relates to whistleblower claims that Gallup overcharged the government for federal contracts. Critics point out that the federal government joined the suit after Obama campaign advisor David Axelrod criticized Gallup’s polling methodology in the wake of a poll unfavorable to Obama. Emails published by the Daily Caller suggest that Axelrod pressured Gallup to change its methodology.

The biggest problem for President Obama in the polls may be one that is totally unseen. In an article on The Hill, Dick Morris points out that pollsters are using a flawed sample. According to Morris, all pollsters are using models based on 2008 turnout. The problem is that the electorate has changed dramatically in the past four years.

For example, in Gallup’s party affiliation poll, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in November 2008 by a margin of 51-40 percent when leaners were included. Since then, however, Democratic Party identification has dropped precipitously. The most current poll shows the two parties almost tied at 49-46 percent favoring the Democrats. This is almost identical to the numbers in November 2010 (44-47 percent favoring Democrats) when the GOP won a landslide congressional victory.

Similarly, the demographic groups that propelled President Obama to power in 2008 do not support him nearly as strongly now. A Gallup poll from 2008 showed that 99 percent of black voters favored Obama. According to Examiner, it is likely that his support among blacks is now far lower due to high unemployment among blacks and the president’s “evolution” on same-sex marriage. Likewise, other polling data suggests that the president’s support among Latinos and young voters may be much lower than it was in 2008. While these groups still support the president, it is by smaller margins and with less enthusiasm than 2008.

In his Hill article, Morris also points out that voters favor the Republican idea that government should “leave me alone” over the Democratic idea that it should “lend me a hand” by a margin of 54 to 35 percent. Most also believe that the country is worse off today than in 2008. Together with President Obama’s low job approval rating, which was recently as low as 29 percent among independents according to Rasmussen, these factors indicate trouble for the president that is not accurately reflected in the polls.

Black voters look beyond Obama

Recently my wife and I were eating an Atlanta-area fast food restaurant when my wife struck up a conversation with a black lady sitting next to us. As the conversation turned to politics, I braced myself, assuming the woman to be an Obama supporter. However, as she spoke, my admittedly stereotypical view was shattered.

The woman, who I’ll call Julia, was very disenchanted with current state of the economy. She told us how she was a teacher with advanced degrees in mathematics. Because of cutbacks in the school systems, she was unable to find a suitable job and was working as a preschool teacher for small children, a job that she clearly disliked.

Economic data tells us that there are likely many more Julias out there. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report for August, the national unemployment rate remained steady at 8.3 percent. The unemployment rate for blacks was significantly higher at 14.1 percent. According to historical data from the Labor Center at UC Berkeley , black unemployment has chronically been significantly higher than the nation as a whole or other ethnic groups.

The Center for Responsible Lending found that black homeowners were disproportionately affected by the foreclosure crisis. Black and Latino homeowners were more likely to be at risk of foreclosure than other whites. Among recent borrowers, blacks and Hispanics were almost twice as likely as non-Hispanic whites to lose their homes.

Additionally, President Obama disappointed many black leaders with his declaration of support for same-sex marriage several months ago. According to a Pew Poll, only 36 percent of black voters approve of same-sex marriage. The Coalition of African-American Pastors, a nonpartisan group, recently launched an online petition drive supporting traditional marriage.

“The hijacking of the civil rights movement by homosexuals, bisexuals and gender-confused people must and will stop,” Rev. William Owens, the group’s founder, said in a joint press release. “We will stand in our pulpits, stand in the streets, stand in the chambers of policymaking and stand at the ballot box for those who are for God’s design of marriage and family.”

Some black voters might also be disappointed with the president’s snub of the NAACP at this year’s convention. Mitt Romney addressed the conventioneers in a speech that drew both boos and cheers. President Obama, however, did not attend the convention, appearing only in a brief video message. Vice President Joe Biden did speak at the convention.

Black voters still overwhelmingly approve of President Obama’s job performance. Gallup recently polled 85 percent support for the president among blacks. Nevertheless, even though Obama’s support among blacks is still significant, it marks a large drop since 2008 when the Obama won 95 percent of the black vote according to CNN exit polls. A 10 percent decline could make the difference in swing states, especially those with large populations of black voters.

In Georgia, the loss of black support has been even more dramatic. CNN reports that 98 percent of Georgia’s black voters cast their ballot for Obama in 2008. A July poll from Insider Advantage shows the president with only 76 percent of the black vote. Tellingly, only six percent favored Romney while almost 18 percent remained undecided.

In one of the most recent state polls, an August 12 Survey USA poll of 585 likely voters in Missouri, 85 percent of black voters indicated that they will vote for President Obama. According to CNN, Obama won 93 percent of black voters in Missouri in 2008. At eight percent, Mitt Romney’s share of black voters was almost identical to John McCain’s seven percent. The remaining seven percent of black voters are undecided.

In the Missouri poll, Romney wins 45 percent of all voters to Barack Obama’s 44 percent. Five percent are undecided. This illustrates how even a small movement of black voters away from the president can cause a battleground state to swing toward Romney. This is true even if they simply stay away from the polls and don’t vote for either candidate.

Like many other black voters, Julia, while disenchanted with Barack Obama, is not completely sold on Mitt Romney. However, for what may be the first time in many years, large numbers of black voters are open to an appeal from Republican candidates. President Obama’s economic policies have not helped black voters find jobs or keep their homes. If Republicans continue to reach out to minorities and point to the growing number of black Republican candidates and elected officials such as Allen West and Artur Davis, the minority flight from the Democratic Party may increase.

Originally published on Examiner.com

http://www.examiner.com/article/black-voters-look-beyond-obama

Georgians vote against Democrats, not for GOP

If polls leading up to Election Day are a reliable indication, the Democrats will suffer a crushing defeat at the ballot box today. Republicans are almost certain to take control of the House, likely to win a majority in the Senate, and are poised to take control of several governorships as well.

To read the rest of this article and learn what the GOP should learn from this election, click the link below.

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/5961708/many_in_georgia_are_voting_against.html?cat=8

Voting Absentee in Georgia

If you are a citizen of Georgia who may not be able to visit a polling place on Election Day, you can vote with an absentee ballot. In my full-time job I travel frequently and so I commonly vote with an absentee ballot. I actually prefer to vote absentee because it helps me to avoid long lines at polling places.

You don’t have to be out of town to vote absentee. You can also get an absentee ballot if you are sick or if you are simply unable to find time to reach your poll. In fact, you do not have to list a reason why you are voting absentee.

To obtain an absentee ballot, contact your county registrar and request an application. You may do this within 180 days of an election. Military and overseas voters are an exception to the 180 day rule. They may request an application at any time. You may also download an absentee ballot application from the website of the Secretary of State here: http://www.sos.ga.gov/elections/quick_access.htm

After you have received your absentee ballot, return it to your county registrar. Both faxed and mail copies are accepted. The link to the Secretary of State’s website above also provides contact information for county registrars. The registrar must receive your application no later than the Friday prior to the election. As an alternative, you may also visit the office of the registrar to vote absentee in person before Election Day.

When your application is received and approved, the registrar will mail your absentee ballot to you. You simply complete the form that affirms your identity, fill out the ballot, and return it through the mail. If you are unable to fill out the ballot yourself, it is legal to have someone assist you.

There are several pros and cons to voting absentee. The pros include not having to schedule a visit to the polling place on Election Day and not having to deal with long lines (except at the post office). Also, ballots can often be long and complicated with some of the races and ballot initiatives being very obscure. With an absentee ballot, you can research these little known races and initiatives rather than having to make a split second decision in a voting booth. Finally, if you submit an absentee ballot application, you are exempted from Georgia’s voter ID law.

There are a few problems with absentee voting as well. One problem is the relative inefficiency of the mail. I always am a little concerned over the possibility of my ballot getting lost or arriving too late to be counted. The bigger issue is that if you submit your ballot early, you lose the ability to change your mind about a candidate if new information comes out just before the election. After your ballot is mailed, you have voted and you cannot retract that vote.

An additional alternative to absentee voting is early voting. Now in Georgia, polls are open for several days prior to the actual Election Day. Early voting combines many of the aspects of absentee voting while eliminating the trips to the post office. Typically, early voters go to the registrar’s office and vote on an actual voting machine rather than a paper ballot. To find out when and where to vote early, contact your county registrar.

Absentee and early voting provide a great alternative to going out of your way to stand in a long line on Election Day. If you are interested in voting early or absentee, start by registering now. Then be sure to request your absentee ballot within 180 days of the election. Do your research and mail your ballot back in plenty of time. Congratulations on becoming an informed and active citizen!

Sources:
http://www.sos.ga.gov/elections/quick_access.htm
http://carrollgaelections.com/home/absenteevoting.asp
http://www.longdistancevoter.org/georgia

Registering to Vote in Georgia

If you intend to vote in an election in Georgia, you should register as soon as possible. While most elections are still several months away, there are deadlines to register for each election. It is important to remember that you cannot register and vote on the same day.

Georgia law requires prospective voters to be at least 18 years of age and to be a citizen of the United States and the county in which they intend to vote. People serving a sentence for a felony or judged by a court to be mentally incompetent are not eligible to vote. It is illegal to register and vote in more than one location. For example, if you have a home in Georgia and vacation home in Florida, you must choose only one state in which to vote.

There are several ways to register to vote in Georgia. Voter registration forms can be found in many public buildings such as city halls, libraries, fire stations, and public assistance offices. The form can also be downloaded from the website of the Georgia Secretary of State. The form is postage-paid for return to the Secretary of State or can be returned to your county Board of Elections. When the registration form is processed, you will receive a precinct card showing the location of your polling place.

You must register to vote at least thirty days prior to any election in which you want to vote. This means that to vote in the 2010 primary election on July 20, you must register by June 21. If you do not register for the primary and wish to vote in the general election on November 2, the deadline is October 4. Once you are registered to vote, you remain registered as long as you keep voting.

It is also important to note that you must bring a valid photo identification card when you vote. A Georgia driver’s license is the most commonly used form of identification. If you do not have a Georgia driver’s license (even if expired) or one of the other valid forms of ID, then the state will provide a free voter ID card. To obtain this free voter ID card, contact your county registrar or the office of the Secretary of State.

Remember that voting is not only a right; it is a civic duty. In exercising your right to vote, it is also your duty to become educated about the issues at stake.

Important Links:
http://www.georgia.gov/00/article/0,2086,4802_4973_11785786,00.html
http://carrollgaelections.com/home/reginfo.asp
http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/elections_events.htm
http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/voter_registration/GA%20VOTER%20REGISTRATION%20%20APP%28Fill_2007%29.pdf
http://sos.georgia.gov/GAPhotoID/default.htm

Should You Vote for Obama?

If you believe that the United States can tax itself into prosperity, vote for Obama.

If you believe that we can simultaneously create jobs while heavily taxing those who create jobs, vote for Obama.

If you believe that a person can associate with a seemingly endless stream of anti-American activists over the course of twenty to thirty years and not only not be affected by their viewpoint, but not even be aware of it, vote for Obama.

If you believe that the 40% of Americans who already do not pay taxes should get a tax cut (translation: a bigger tax refund), vote for Obama.

If you believe that banning the private use and ownership of firearms is a “reasonable restriction” on the second amendment, vote for Obama.

If you believe that abortion should be legal with no restrictions, vote for Obama.

If you believe that you don’t pay enough taxes, vote for Obama.

If you believe that a senator can take over $125,000 from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (more than any other member of Congress save one, even though he has only served four years in the senate) and it will not affect his objectivity on reforming and overseeing these mortgage companies, vote for Obama.

If you believe that most traditional Americans are bitterly clinging to guns and religion, vote for Obama.

If you believe that the government should force banks to loan money to people with poor credit, vote for Obama.

If you believe that opposing same-sex marriage is akin to racism, vote for Obama.

If you believe that we can solve the problem of international terrorism by opening a dialogue, vote for Obama.

If you believe that America wasn’t great until you decided to run for office, vote for Obama.

If you believe that gas will be cheaper if we tax oil companies more, vote for Obama.

If you believe that increasing oil supplies will have no effect of the price of gasoline, vote for Obama.

If you believe that taxing carbon will have no effect the economy, vote for Obama.

If you believe that experience and knowledge don’t matter as much as charisma and hope, vote for Obama.

If you believe that making students into political radicals (through programs such as the Annenberg Challenge) is more important than teaching them subjects such as math and science, then vote for Obama.

If you believe that the government can run the healthcare industry more cheaply and efficiently than doctors and insurance companies, vote for Obama.

If you believe that Jesus was a community organizer, vote for Obama.

If you believe that Iraq is not important in spite of what Osama bin Laden says, vote for Obama.

If you believed that the surge wouldn’t work in Iraq, but is needed in Afghanistan, vote for Obama.

If you believe that Al Qaeda or Iranian radicals wouldn’t fill a vacuum left by the US in Iraq, vote for Obama.

If you believe that healthcare is a constitutional right, vote for Obama.

If you believe that it is ethical to take money from other people to pay for your health insurance, vote for Obama.

If you believe that a trillion dollars worth of new spending is a good thing, vote for Obama.

If you believe that ACORN is a valuable resource in spreading political awareness, vote for Obama.

If you believe that banks should be pressured by community groups such as ACORN to loan money to people with poor credit, vote for Obama.

If you believe that ACORN should receive federal money even though they have perpetrated voter fraud on a massive scale in the last several elections, vote for Obama.

If you believe that more government regulations are the answer to most of our national problems, vote for Obama.

If you believe that our economic problems are caused by corporate greed and not government intrusions into the market or massive deficit spending, vote for Obama.

If you believe that social programs are more important than defense spending, vote for Obama.

If you believe that the US should borrow more money from nations like China to fund entitlement programs, vote for Obama.

If you are reassured by the phrase, “I’m from the government and I’m here to help,” vote for Obama.

If you believe that the Democratic Party can suspend the laws of economics, vote for Obama.

If you believe that the US can make socialism work where all others have failed, vote for Obama.

If you think that Truth Squads, which intimidate media outlets that present information unflattering to Obama, are a good idea, vote for Obama.

If you think that America needs a domestic national police agency with a budget similar to that of the military, then vote for Obama.

If you agree with the political views of most Hollywood celebrities, vote for Obama.

If you enjoyed the Carter years and would like to revisit them, vote for Obama.

If you believe that the government’s plan to increase bio-fuels, which also increased food prices by 75%, worked well, vote for Obama.

If you believe that the government should tell you what kind of light bulb to use, vote for Obama.

If you believe that the government should force the auto companies to produce cars like the Prius, which are smaller and more expensive than comparable cars, vote for Obama.

If you believe the government, not private companies, creates jobs, vote for Obama.

If you believe that we should have judges who rule based on their personal beliefs rather than written law, vote for Obama.

If you believe that our judges should apply the laws of other countries to American courts, vote for Obama.

If you believe that the most leftist member of the US Senate is capable of forging bipartisan unity, vote for Obama.

If you believe that the government can spend your money more wisely than you can, vote for Obama.

If you believe that next year, your income level won’t be considered “rich,” vote for Obama.

If you believe that character is not important, vote for Obama.

If you believe that the party of higher taxes can suddenly become champions of tax cuts, vote for Obama.

If you believe that allowing tax cuts to expire is not a tax increase, vote for Obama.

If you believe that giving tax refunds to those who don’t pay taxes is not welfare, vote for Obama.

If you believe that the government should be involved in wealth sharing, vote for Obama.

If you believe that the government bureaucracy is more efficient than private enterprise, vote for Obama.

If you believe that Barack Obama is your new bicycle, vote for Obama.

If you believe that any change is good, vote for Obama.

If you believe that Iran armed with nuclear weapons is not a problem, vote for Obama.

If you believe that we should invade Pakistan, vote for Obama.

If you believe that liberal Democrat control of the presidency, along with filibuster-proof majorities in both houses of Congress, is a good thing, vote for Obama.

If you believe that more government is the answer, vote for Obama.

If enough people vote for Obama, you’ll get the government that you deserve.

If, on the other hand, you believe that, as President Lincoln said, “America is the last, best hope of mankind,” and that the founders of our country were wiser than our current crop of politicians, don’t vote for Obama.

Captain Kudzu's Letter in USA Today

On May 16, I had a letter printed in USA Today. The printed version was edited by the newspaper. Here is the full, unedited version:

DeWayne Hickham underestimates white voters. The willingness of white voters to vote for a black candidate has been shown time and time again, both in this and other campaigns.

The problem that Obama faces is not the color of his skin, but his Marxist political philosophy and his radical associations. Obama is calling for a US surrender in Iraq, massive tax increases, new regulations on business and industry, and would roll back gains in civil liberties such as second amendment rights and the right to life. Most Americans will find these positions far out of the American mainstream. Obama is dogged by his record, not as a uniter, but as the most liberal senator in the entire US Senate.

The people with whom he chooses to associate are also out of the mainstream. Jeremiah Wright, his pastor of twenty years, is virulently anti-American. William Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn, Weather Underground terrorists from the 1970s, helped kick off Obama's political career. Communist Frank Marshall Davis was Obama's mentor as he grew up in Hawaii.

Equally disturbing is the Obamania from dictators around the world. Anti-American leaders from Hugo Chavez to Daniel Ortega and countries from Russia to North Korea have indicated that they prefer an Obama presidency. A Hamas representative said, "We like Mr. Obama. We hope he will (win) the election."

There are myriad reasons for Americans of all colors not to vote for Barack Obama in November. To suggest that race is the dominant factor, either for or against any candidate, is itself a racist proposition. The American people, as Martin Luther King suggested, as judging Obama, not by the color of his skin, but by the content of his character.

The link to the letter is :
http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2008/05/dont-underestim.html