Is Hillary electable?

Hillary Clinton has finally announced her candidacy for president. Her candidacy was begun with a tweet and a two-and-a-half minute You Tube video, of which only about 40 seconds is Hillary giving her announcement and rationale for seeking office.

In contrast to the Republican hopefuls, who kicked off their presidential campaigns to adoring crowds, Hillary’s campaign began with a soundbite on social media followed by a trip in her “Scooby” van to Iowa with no organized campaign stops along the way. Hillary’s presidential announcement was almost secretive in comparison to the Republicans, with no rallies, no crowds of supporters and no questions from the media.

Hillary’s trip to Iowa is more akin to a fugitive sneaking across the state line than a triumphant politician arriving to assume her mandate. When Clinton’s “Scooby” van stopped at an Ohio Chipotle restaurant, the presumptive Democratic nominee was incognito, hiding behind a large pair of sunglasses. She not only did no campaigning, but she was only recognized when the manager examined the store’s surveillance videos after being tipped by a New York Times reporter than Hillary had visited the restaurant. Neither employees nor other customers had recognized the former First Lady.

Dick Morris, a longtime confidante of the Clintons, explains that the subterfuge is part of Hillary’s nature. Unlike her extroverted, fun-loving husband, Hillary is “hidden, paranoid, secret, controlled, and scripted” according to Morris. Where Bill was a natural campaigner, Morris calls Hillary a “born bureaucrat” who sticks “to a script, blundering when she make the slightest departure.”

The current crop of scandals that are already dogging the Clinton campaign can only serve to heighten Hillary’s sense of secrecy and paranoia. She has hidden from the media for the past several months as the scandal of her personal email server and deleted emails developed. Questions about the legality of sending classified documents via unsecure personal email and an unsecure server mean that Hillary has to consider that any questions that she answers might come back to haunt her in a criminal proceeding.

Keeping Hillary away from the media and real voters also minimizes the chance of an embarrassing gaffe. Ms. Clinton is known for a number of misstatements, such as when she asked congressional Benghazi investigators, “What difference, at this point does it make?” or when she claimed that the Clintons were “dead broke” upon leaving the White House in 2001.

One embarrassing error has already occurred. Hillary’s long-awaited announcement also came with a serious typo according to Bloomberg. A press release heralding her announcement claimed that she had “fought children and families all her career,” omitting the word “for.” Although the wording was quickly corrected, it is shocking that such a high profile announcement on a multibillion dollar campaign could have seen the light of day.

Similarly, Hillary’s campaign logo, a blue “H” with a red arrow, quickly became the target of widespread ridicule. Many claimed it resembled a road sign that pointed toward a hospital or the FedEx logo. Julian Assange claimed that it was based on the WikiLeaks logo.

Hillary has long been assumed to be inevitable by many on both the left and right. Now with her lack of campaign skills, scandals, and a slipshod campaign becoming evident, the question is whether she is electable at all.

Hillary’s biggest advantage over any Republican is that she is well known. Many Republican candidates are new to the national stage and not familiar outside the GOP. According to Gallup, 90 percent of Americans are already familiar with Hillary. No Republican even comes close.

The downside for Hillary is that, while she is well known, she is also a polarizing figure. Even the Huffington Post puts her approval rating almost equal with her disapproval at 47 – 46 percent. Further, polls that use likely voters rather than adults give her a much high negative rating. Republican candidates are not as well known, but have much lower negatives.

While Hillary’s name recognition gave her an early lead in polling, there are signs that her lead may already be fading. Karl Rove pointed out in the Wall St. Journal that recent polling in 15 battleground states showed Ms. Clinton trailing a generic Republican. Recent polling available on Real Clear Politics also shows several races around the country where Republicans Scott Walker, Mike Huckabee and Rick Perry hold slight leads over Ms. Clinton.

Nevertheless, Hillary’s failings may be more than offset by several factors. First, whoever the eventual Democratic nominee is will win at least 40-45 percent of the popular vote. The worst Democratic wipeout in recent history, Richard Nixon’s 1972 trouncing of George McGovern, still saw McGovern win 37 percent of the vote even as he lost 49 states. Ms. Clinton would undoubtedly do much better than McGovern. With normally reliable Democratic states such as those carried by John Kerry in 2004, any Democratic candidate can be expected to win at least 200 of the 270 electoral votes needed just by appearing on the ballot as a Democrat.

Second, Ms. Clinton now heads the Clinton money machine. Hillary is backed by many on Wall Street including friends at Goldman Sachs. The Clintons also have a well-established network of foreign contributors. Republican candidates will be struggling to establish support networks for the first time, which will put them at a disadvantage. Additionally, it seems unlikely that Hillary will face a serious primary threat, which will enable her to get a head start on general election campaigning and fundraising.

Finally, Hillary will benefit by default if the Republicans nominate someone who seems more extreme and unlikable than she is. Hillary’s negatives will only take Republicans so far. The Republican nominee must be able to close the deal with moderate and independent voters. This will require the ability to present a positive vision to voters and not simply focus on negatives like Ms. Clinton’s poor record or promising to repeal Obamacare. The Republican candidate must convince voters that he cares about them more than Ms. Clinton does.

Despite her problems, Ms. Clinton’s money and network alone make her a formidable candidate, but not an inevitable one. Conservatives would do well to remember that she has only run in three elections, twice for the Senate and once for president. Of these, only one, the 2008 Democratic primary, was a tough race. Hillary lost.

 

Read the full article on Examiner.com

Meet the candidates: Michele Bachmann

It is perhaps inevitable that Michele Bachmann will be compared to that other prominent conservative woman, Sarah Palin.  Both women are outspoken Midwestern brunettes and conservative Christians.  Both are also reformers and darlings of the Tea Party movement who sometimes put their feet in their mouths.  Both may ultimately end up competing for the same Tea Party votes if Sarah Palin decides to enter the 2012 presidential campaign as well.

Bachmann was born Michele Marie Amble in Waterloo, Ia. in 1956.  Her family moved to Minnesota when she was a young girl.  Her parents later divorced there.  Her mother raised her until she remarried when Michele was a teenager. 

She graduated from high school in Anoka, Mn. in 1974.  After high school, she worked on a kibbutz in Israel even though she was raised as a Lutheran.  She told TCJewfolk.com that she considers her “heritage Jewish, because it is the foundation, the roots of my faith as a Christian.”

When she returned to the U.S., she earned a B.A. from Winona State University in Minnesota.  She then continued to the O.W. Coburn School of Law at Oral Roberts University where she earned a Juris Doctor in 1986 and the College of William and Mary where she earned an L.L.M. in tax law in 1988.  She had married Marcus Bachmann in 1978 and the couple moved to Stillwater, Mn. after her graduation from William and Mary.  Ironically, Michele met Marcus while working on Jimmy Carter’s presidential campaign in 1976.

From 1988 to 1993, Bachmann worked for the IRS as a tax attorney in St. Paul, Mn.  She left the IRS to become a full-time mother to the couple’s five children and has also raised twenty-three foster children.  Her husband, Marcus, operates a Christian counseling center. 

Bachmann’s political career began in 1999 when she ran in a nonpartisan school board election in Stillwater.  She lost that campaign, but was elected to the Minnesota state senate in 2000, defeating a long-time Republican incumbent in the primary and a Democratic-Farm-Labor (DFL) candidate in the general election.  In 2002, after senate district lines were redrawn, she ran against a ten-year DFL incumbent and was re-elected.  In 2006, she was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives where she replaced Mark Kennedy, a Republican who left the house to run for the U.S. Senate.  In congress, Bachmann is on the Financial Services Committee and the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.

While in the Minnesota senate, Bachmann was a strong defender of traditional marriage.  She introduced a definition of marriage amendment, but it failed to pass the DFL-controlled senate.  Minnesota has a Defense of Marriage law but it is not constitutionally defined.

While in congress, Bachmann has opposed the expansion of government power and spending while supporting free market solutions.  She opposed the financial and auto bailouts and supported President Bush’s Iraq War surge as well expanded domestic oil drilling.  She introduced the Light Bulb Freedom of Choice Act in response to the Democratic ban on incandescent bulbs.  She supports the repeal of President Obama’s health care reform and the Dodd-Frank financial reform.

Bachmann has also made a number of statements that smack of conspiracy theories.  In 2009, she initially refused to complete a census form because the questions had become too personal and because ACORN was involved in helping to recruit census workers. 

Also in 2009, the Minnesota Independent reported that Bachmann feared that the Edward M. Kennedy Serve America Act had “provisions for what I would call re-education camps for young people, where young people have to go and get trained in a philosophy that the government puts forward and then they have to go to work in some of these politically correct forums.”

Bachmann has also made a number of historical gaffes.  In one case, she confused Lexington and Concord in New Hampshire for the Lexington and Concord in Massachusetts where Minutemen “fired the shot heard round the world.”  In another incident, according to Politico she claimed that the Founding Fathers “worked tirelessly until slavery was no more in the United States.”  In reality, slavery continued in the United States for almost a hundred years after the founding of the country. 

More recently, when she made her candidacy announcement in her hometown of Waterloo, Ia. Bachmann referenced John Wayne, who she said was also from Waterloo.  In reality, John Wayne was from Winterset, Ia.  The similarly named John Wayne Gacy, a serial killer, lived and worked in Waterloo before he was convicted of thirty-three murders and executed in 1994.

Bachmann was singled out by liberal pundits after the Tucson shootings in January 2010 for saying in March 2009 that she wanted people “armed and dangerous.”  Many liberals tried to paint this quote as an example of violent conservative rhetoric.  In reality, when the quote is taken in context, it is clear that Bachmann meant that voters should be armed with information. 

In spite of her weaknesses, Bachmann has a gift for fundraising.  The Atlanta Journal reports that in 2010 her campaign collected more money than any other congressional candidate.  Many of Bachmann’s contributions come in small amounts from a large network of supporters around the country.

At this point, Bachmann ranks seventh in a recent index of polls by Real Clear Politics.  She trails Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Rudy Giuliani, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul.  She leads Rick Perry, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum, and John Huntsman.  In a June 3 Insider Advantage/WSB-TV poll of Georgia voters, Bachmann placed second with thirteen percent.  Herman Cain placed first with twenty-six percent.

Michelle Bachmann is undoubtedly a very intelligent woman.  Her educational background is probably one of the most impressive in Congress and her experience as a tax lawyer would be beneficial in writing the tax reforms that the country desperately needs.  However, Michelle Bachmann is her own worst enemy when it comes to creating embarrassing sound bites.  If she cannot stop making outlandish statements it will be impossible to take her candidacy seriously.   In the age of Youtube, her campaign may already have been damaged beyond repair.   

http://www.examiner.com/elections-2012-in-atlanta/meet-the-candidates-michele-bachmann">