Trump Approval Returns To The Cellar

President Trump’s approval rating got an upward blip for a few weeks after he declared a national emergency for Coronavirus back in March. Now it seems that the brief surge in the polls is ending and the president’s popularity is heading back to the low 40s, where it has stayed for virtually his entire tenure in office.

The FiveThirtyEight average of polls shows that the president’s average approval rating topped out at 45.8 percent on March 27. It plateaued for a few days and then began to slide. As of this writing, the average approval is at 44.5 percent. Even at its height, Trump’s approval rating was still underwater with 49.7 percent average disapproval.

Politico points out that Trump’s failure to get a rally in a national crisis defies historical precedent. Presidents Carter, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush all got surges of at least 25 points when they faced national crises. In contrast, Trump’s increase was only about three points.

Donald Trump’s failure to capitalize on his Administration’s response to the pandemic likely stems from two factors. The first is that the response has not gone well. There have been revelations that Trump ignored warnings about the pandemic and squandered months before taking the threat seriously. As a result, stockpiles of medical supplies are dangerously low.

Second, President Trump is in front of the news cameras every day at the Coronavirus Task Force briefing. I said a week ago that the focus on President Trump was both good news and bad news for Republicans. While Republicans may feel a tingle run up their collective leg when Trump speaks, the rest of the country is not so enamored of a president who frequently uses the briefings to espouse misinformation and attack political opponents.

But Trump’s declining approval may not relate only to his handling of Coronavirus. The polling average shows that Trump’s approval dropped sharply in the days after his abrupt firing of Michael Atkinson, the inspector general of the intelligence community last Friday. The move returned the Ukraine whistleblower scandal to the public consciousness. Voters have consistently said that Trump acted improperly with respect to Ukraine and majorities favored impeachment and removal for his actions.

Even as the economy suffers from the pandemic response, it continues to be a bright spot for President Trump. A recent CNN poll found that Trump’s approval on the economy had declined only six points to 48 percent. About two-thirds said they believed that economic hardship caused by the pandemic was only temporary.

While Trump’s daily briefings have crowded Joe Biden out of the news cycle, they have not benefited the president’s re-election chances. Instead, Mr. Trump’s fixation with attacking political foes and rooting out perceived enemies has turned his polling bump into a momentary blip. Even in a time of national crisis, Mr. Trump seems incapable of rising to the occasion for long.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Swing State Polls Are Nightmare For Republicans

President Trump’s approval rating isn’t exactly in a freefall, but the president’s popularity is declining. Even worse for Mr. Trump’s reelection chances, the problem seems to be worst in must-win battleground states.

One of the few regular polls that breaks down presidential approval to the state level, where it really matters for elections, is the Morning Consult poll that is released monthly. The numbers for July were recently released and they are not pretty for Donald Trump, particularly when it comes to the Rust Belt and the traditional swing states.

Axios puts the poll data into a handy chart that is the stuff of nightmares for Republican leaders. Looking back to January 2017, Axios found no less than 15 states in which President Trump’s approval has gone from net positive to negative. In nine of those states (in order of highest disapproval to least: New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maine, New Mexico, Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, and Iowa), the president’s net disapproval is in double digits. In another four states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Ohio, and Virginia), Trump’s net disapproval is greater than the margin of error for the poll. Additionally, in Florida and North Carolina Trump has gone from a double-digit positive to a one-point negative, making both states tossups if the election were held today.

Further, polling data for Georgia and Texas shows problems for the president as well. While both states show Trump with net positive approval, Georgia is just outside the margin of error with a two-point edge for the president while Texas shows a positive six points. The two states were at net 18 and 21-point positives for Trump in January 2017.

There were no states where Trump approval increased in the same time period. Even in Alabama, the Trumpiest state in the Union, the data showed a one-point decline in the president’s approval, which translates into a change in net approval of negative 10 points.

Of the states where Trump’s approval has gone from positive to negative, nine (Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Maine (where Trump won one of three electoral votes), Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) are states that Trump won in 2016. Even assuming that North Carolina and Florida might remain in the Republican column, the shift of the other swing states would represent a 314-224 Electoral College loss for Trump if the election were held today.

There are some caveats. Polls are historical, not predictive. This means that the situation could easily change prior to Election Day. The problem for Republicans is that it could also change for the worse. The July numbers don’t include Donald Trump’s disastrous last week. The state polls should be considered very accurate. Margins of error are listed by state and are not greater than four percent. The battleground states have much lower margins of error.

Approval rating is not a direct proxy for an election poll, but an approval rating of less than 50 percent is not a good sign for an incumbent. This is backed up by a spate of recent polls that show Trump trailing the top four Democratic candidates by healthy margins and only leading Pete Buttigieg in national polling.

There is a possibility that Donald Trump can reverse his slide in the polls, but Republicans need to realize that what the president is doing is not working. A fundamental change in the president’s approach is needed if he wants to win reelection and Republicans want to avert an electoral disaster.

Trump’s one strong point has been the economy but recent polling shows that the trade war has cut into that advantage. At least one poll, by the Associated Press, already shows Trump underwater on the economy. If the country slides into a downturn or recession, any chance of Trump’s reelection will evaporate.  

The best scenario for Trump would be a quick victory in the trade war, but that appears unlikely with China continuing to ratchet up retaliatory measures. A second-best alternative would be for Trump to seize on something – anything – that will allow him to save face and end the tariff battle before it results in a recession. At this point, this option also appears unlikely.

Instead, the president appears intent on continuing to escalate the battle, threatening last week to cut off all trade with China.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1164914960046133249?s=20

Other Republicans are so far backing the president. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who is up for reelection next year himself, said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” over the weekend, “We just got to accept the pain that comes with standing up to China.”

“Accept the pain” is a horrible campaign slogan for Republicans as we enter an election year. Better advice would be to look back to Bill Clinton’s motto from 1992:

“It’s the economy, stupid.”

Originally published on the Resurgent

Trump Should Accept Mexican Concessions To Avert Trade War

In an effort to avert a trade war that could damage the economies of both countries, Mexico is reportedly offering concessions to President Trump. Mr. Trump’s threatened tariffs on Mexico are slated to go into effect on June 10 and would likely provoke a targeted response from our neighbor to the south.

The Washington Post reported on Thursday that Mexico was offering two major concessions to head off a new tariff war. First, the Mexican government offered to deploy 6,000 National Guard troops to its border with Guatemala, a major entry point for Central American migrants on their way to the US.

Second, Mexico is proposing changes to its asylum rules that would allow refugees to be returned to the first nation that they entered after leaving their home country. For example, Guatemalans would typically remain in Mexico while their request for asylum is processed and Salvadorans and Hondurans would have to remain in Guatemala.

Administration officials cautioned that there is currently no deal and cautioned that the concessions might not be sufficient to avoid the trade war. The president has not yet responded to the Mexican offer publicly, but tweeted on Wednesday that talks were progressing “but not nearly enough.”

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1136402982860312576

Vice President Mike Pence told Fox News on Thursday that the US was encouraged by the Mexican proposal, but that tariffs were still scheduled to be implemented on Monday. Fox cited two additional Administration officials who said that reports of an imminent deal were untrue.

In other developments, Mexican security forces intercepted a caravan of about 1,000 Central American migrants and detained more than 400 of the marchers per the AP. The migrants, who said they were fleeing gang violence, extortion, and corruption in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador as well as a severe drought in the region, intended to seek asylum in the US. Reuters also reported that Mexico had frozen the bank accounts of 26 people accused of human trafficking.

As we’ve pointed out before, Trump’s tariffs actually tax American purchasers of imported products, not foreign manufacturers. Although the higher cost of imported goods reduces demand and can eventually hurt foreign companies, Americans bear the brunt of the tax increase. Decades after NAFTA, many US companies have supply lines that run through Mexico and products often cross the border several times during the manufacturing process. The tariffs would increase the cost of many products finished in the US and would ultimately kill many American jobs.

Recent polling shows that Americans oppose Trump’s tariff policies by a two-to-one margin and since the onset of the trade war the president has lost ground even in many red states. Mr. Trump’s approval in the Rust Belt states that propelled him to victory in 2016, states that would be hard hit by a trade war with Mexico, is already underwater.  Earlier this week, a new poll from Texas, another state with close economic ties to Mexico, found Donald Trump trailing Joe Biden.

The new tariffs would have to be applied by declaring a new national emergency since the applicable law was not cited in the president’s previous emergency declaration. However, more than half of voters have consistently opposed the use of national emergencies to tackle the problem of illegal immigration across the southern border. The idea is drawing widespread criticism from Republicans in Congress and could spark a backlash that is large enough to override a President Trump’s veto.

If President Trump agrees to the concessions, it would represent a major victory for his strategy of threatening tariffs to force compliance. However, if the president allows the tariffs to go into effect, he could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The defeat could extend beyond an embarrassing rebuke from Congress to a humiliating landslide loss next year as farmers and factory workers impacted by the tariffs abandon both the president and the Republican Party.

Originally published by the Resurgent

Poll: 54 Percent Would Consider Voting Trump In 2020

A new poll shows that a majority of registered voters would consider a vote to re-elect President Trump. The polling gives hope to the president’s supporters but underscores the obstacles that Trump faces in his quest to win a second term.

The good news for Republicans is that the poll by Hill-HarrisX, which was taken before the release of the Mueller report’s findings, found that 54 percent of registered voters would are open to voting for President Trump in the 2020 elections. The bad news is that 46 percent refused to even consider voting to send Trump back to Washington. The sharply divided electorate with an extremely large anti-Trump faction means that re-election is possible but unlikely unless Trump wins virtually all of the voters are open to supporting him.

People who voted for Trump in 2016 are largely standing by their man. Ninety-five percent of prior Trump voters are open to supporting him again in 2020. In 2016, Trump won 46.1 percent of the popular vote.

Surprisingly, a large minority of Clinton voters say that they would also consider a vote for Trump. Seventy-six percent of former Hillary supporters refuse to consider supporting Trump but 24 percent are open to the possibility.

Respondents who did not vote in 2016 opposed Trump by an almost two-to-one margin. Sixty-five percent said that they would never vote for Trump versus 35 percent who might.

Trump’s largest positive was the economy. Twenty-two percent of respondents said that the good economy was the main reason that they could support the president. More recent polling from Gallup found that the economy and national defense were the only issue areas in which voters ranked President Trump positively.

While the top line of the poll is encouraging for Republicans, the underlying problems should be obvious. If only 54 percent of voters are open to supporting Trump in a good economy, what happens if the economy softens before the election? There are already indications that the economy may be slowing. Economic growth for 2018 missed the Trump Administration’s target, partly due to the ongoing trade war.

Even with a booming economy, a near majority say that they will not even consider voting for Trump. That leaves very few undecided voters and President Trump must win almost all of them. With almost half of registered voters dead set against supporting him, the president cannot afford to write off a single undecided voter.

There is also the possibility that the importance of the economy is overstated. Contrary to Republican claims during the election, President Obama presided over a good albeit sluggish economy and current economic growth is not significantly different from what the country experienced during the Obama years. Likewise, the stock market climbed steadily under Obama after the recovery from the Great Recession started in 2009. During the same period, unemployment steadily declined and continued to do so under Trump. However, the good economic news was not enough to prevent Obama’s Democrat successor from losing in 2016.

The Bill Clinton campaign in 1992 famously repeated the mantra, “It’s the economy, stupid.” That is true in a slow economy but not necessarily in a good one as his wife learned 25 years later. When the economy is bad, people vote with their wallets. When the economy is good and consumer confidence is high, voters may base their choice other issues.

One such issue is immigration. The primary reason that voters refuse to support President Trump is his hard line on immigration. This issue was cited by 18 percent.

Many voters seem willing to consider the Democratic challengers as well as Trump. The poll reports that 20 percent of respondents who were open to supporting Trump said that the Democratic candidates were too liberal, but this group was made up mostly of Republicans. Ten percent of potential Trump supporters said that none of the Democratic candidates were exciting. Looking at this data from the opposite direction, more than half of potential Trump supporters don’t see the Democrats as too liberal and 90 percent think the Democrats have interesting candidates.

President Trump should not be considered a sure loser for 2020 but neither is he a shoo-in. If the president hopes to win re-election, he must focus on winning over almost all of the independent and moderate voters who have not already ruled out supporting him. To do that, his campaign should focus on the economy and steer clear of the divisive immigration issue. However, it is by no means clear that the president will be able to focus on something other than the issue that fires up his base.

Originally published on The Resurgent

How Americans Could Elect A Socialist In 2020

The midterm elections have yet to come, but already there is intense speculation about the presidential election in 2020. President Trump has already announced his intention to seek reelection and a number of Democrats are testing the waters. Unlike the 2016 election, there is no Democrat awaiting a coronation in which the primaries are a mere formality. A lot can happen over the next two years, but it is very possible that circumstances will combine in a way that will lead to the election of America’s first socialist president.

The first step towards a socialist is the razor-thin margins by which Donald Trump was elected in 2016. President Trump’s 2016 Electoral College victory was predicated on winning a series of Rust Belt states that normally vote Democrat. Trump succeeded, but by an extremely narrow margin. Changing the vote by two percent in three states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) would have changed the outcome of the election.

In order to win reelection, the president must either replicate the conditions that won those key states in 2016 or, preferably, win new supporters. However, when it comes to winning converts, the president’s unpopularity has been remarkably consistent. Just prior to the 2016 election, Trump polled at 42 percent. He beat this number in the actual election, winning 46 percent of the popular vote to Hillary Clinton’s 48 percent. Since he took office, Trump’s average approval rating reached a high of 46 percent in February 2017 and then settled back down into the low 40s and high 30s where he has been ever since.

Trump’s approval is similar to that of Barack Obama, who was in the low 40s for much of his presidency. Obama did win reelection, but the problem for President Trump is that his approval has slipped in the places where he needs it most. In the key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the president now has a negative approval rating. He is also negative in other swing states that he won in 2016 such as Ohio and Nevada. In Minnesota, a state that Trump only lost by 1.5 percent, his approval rating is now negative by 15 points. As it stands now, Donald Trump is an unpopular president who faces an uphill battle to get back to the electoral map that won him the presidency in a fluke.

Donald Trump is unpopular despite the fact that the nation is experiencing an economic boom. If President Trump’s policy of tariffs leads to an economic slowdown and more layoffs among American workers, then his approval could go even lower and spell disaster for his reelection hopes.

The manufacturing states in the Rust Belt are particularly vulnerable to President Trump’s trade war. International supply chains mean that products built in the US are often assembled with components that are imported and subject to tariffs. The tariffs mean higher manufacturing costs and a less competitive product. Tariffs applied to US exports also make American products more expensive to foreign buyers. When costs rise, demand falls. Wage cuts and layoffs may soon follow.

Meanwhile, President Trump has driven the Democrats crazy. The opposition party has moved farther to the left as many of its members embrace “democratic socialism.” Self-proclaimed democratic socialists such as Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have become immensely popular in the Democratic Party. Rasmussen recently found that 51 percent of Democrats have a favorable impression of socialism. Fifty-five percent of Millennials also had a positive view of socialism according to a 2016 Gallup poll (although 57 percent also like capitalism and 78 percent like free enterprise).

Given the growing number of Democrats who openly profess an admiration for socialism, it is increasingly likely that the party will nominate a self-professed socialist. Bernie Sanders came within a whisker of winning the Democratic nomination in 2016 despite Hillary Clinton’s systemic advantages. In a June Harvard CAPS/Harris poll of Democrats, Sanders ranked third as a potential 2020 nominee behind Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton with Elizabeth Warren finishing fourth. Sanders has a dedicated and loyal following and a nationwide grassroots organization that could give him an edge in the 2020 primaries, especially Biden and Hillary split the Democratic establishment vote.

Would Americans vote for a socialist if the Democrats nominated one? A Hill/Harris poll recently found that 76 percent of Americans say that they would not vote for a socialist. Even 64 percent of Democrats say they would not pull the lever for a socialist.

Nevertheless, socialist ideas tend to be more popular than the label. Both Pew and  Washington Post/Kaiser polls showed that more than half of Americans favor single-payer health care. Another Kaiser poll found that 59 percent approve of Bernie Sanders’ Medicare-for-all plan. Likewise, most Americans support other ideas championed by Democrats such as raising the minimum wage and free college tuition. For all their craziness, democratic socialists have some popular policy proposals to pair with their unpopular label. Many mainstream Democrats endorse many of the same ideas, blurring the line between socialism and liberalism.

As the country heads toward the next presidential election, the Republicans are saddled with an unpopular president who has done a poor job of selling his agenda to voters. President Trump won the presidency with a minority of votes and then proceeded, as Obama did before him, without regard to the need to build coalitions to support his actions and agenda. Both presidents relied on their congressional majorities, voter bases and executive actions to force their way rather than trying to win people over.

President Trump is immensely popular within the Republican Party. That is enough to win the nomination, but not the general election. For that, the president must persuade those moderate and independent voters that he has been ignoring since 2016. The voters who are unhappy with his trade and immigration policies as well as his continual bad behavior will ultimately decide the election.

Donald Trump was a reaction to the economic doldrums of the Obama Administration and the corruption and incompetence of Hillary Clinton. In 2020, the pendulum is likely to swing in the other direction due to President Trump’s incompetence and erratic behavior if the Democrats can keep the focus on Trump and off of their own foibles and radical platform.

While it is far too early to make predictions, conditions appear to be ripe for a backlash in 2020 against President Trump and congressional Republicans. If Democrat primary voters nominate a Democrat socialist, America might well find itself with its first self-described socialist president.

Originally published on The Resurgent

The Good, The Bad and the Ugly of Trump's First Year

As the new year begins it also marks the final month of Donald Trump’s first year as president. As President Trump’s first year draws to a close some people proclaim him to be the greatest president since Reagan while others say he is tyrant. As usual, the truth is somewhere in between.

In December, the White House issued a list of 81 accomplishments of the Trump Administration. While the list contains many items of fluff (“Trump traveled the world to promote the sale and use of U.S. energy” and “made progress to build the border wall with Mexico”) and economic statistics that may or may not be the result of Trump’s election win (“increase of the GDP above 3 percent,” “saw the Dow Jones reach record highs” and “a rebound in economic confidence to a 17-year high”), the list did include real accomplishments.

President Trump had several legitimate legislative successes in his first year. The crowning jewel of the Trump Administration’s first year is the tax reform bill. The bill slashed the corporate tax rate as well as cutting individual income tax rates. The bill also repealed Obamacare’s unpopular individual mandate. Earlier the in the year, the Republican Congress also passed several bills repealing Obama-era regulations under the Congressional Review Act. A more bipartisan success was a bill reforming the Veterans Administration.

Trump also has made his mark on the federal judiciary. Neil Gorsuch has filled Antonin Scalia’s seat on the Supreme Court with another conservative, an accomplishment that many said would make a Trump presidency worthwhile. Trump has also appointed 18 judges to lower courts.

Many of the list items relate to Donald Trump’s 55 Executive Orders, which are far more numerous than his legislative successes. With Congress deadlocked for much of the year, the majority of Trump Administration accomplishments relate to executive actions or rulemaking by bureaucratic agencies. Some of these decisions have been good, such as rolling back Obama-era net neutrality rules, reinstating the Mexico City policy and cutting federal regulations. President Trump also signaled his intent to withdraw from the Paris Climate treaty and move the US embassy in Israel to the capital city of Jerusalem.

In other cases, Trump’s executive actions weren’t as good. One of Trump’s first acts as president was to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a move that opened the door for Chinese expansion with their One Belt One Road Initiative. Trump decided against withdrawing from NAFTA, but reopened negotiations with Mexico and Canada. A series of Executive Orders that limited immigration from designated countries were largely upheld by the courts, but are more symbolic than useful in preventing terrorism since many, if not most, recent terrorists have been native-born Americans.

Whether good or bad, the common thread among the Trump Administration’s executive actions is their impermanence. Many of Trump’s executive actions reverse executive actions by Barack Obama. A future president could reverse Trump’s executive actions just as easily.

On foreign policy, Trump’s year has been mixed as well. A one-off missile strike against Syria in May had little discernible effect on the situation in the Middle East. Likewise, Trump’s war of words with Kim Jong Un has not helped to curb North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. President Trump did score an end-of-the-year win on foreign policy with the news that ISIS had lost 98 percent of its territory.

There were several particularly bad spots for President Trump in 2017. Trump’s firing of James Comey ensured that the Russia investigation would continue indefinitely and, although evidence of illegal collusion between Trump and the Russians is doubtful, the probe has already led to a number of indictments of Trump campaign officials and the investigation is an albatross around Trump’s neck.

The failure of the Republicans to repeal or reform Obamacare was the president’s biggest defeat of the year. Trump and the Republican Party had spent years campaigning against the health law only to have even watered-down versions of their own healthcare bill fail to pass. The repeal of the individual mandate in the tax reform bill is a consolation prize that may make matters worse. The repeal of the mandate may drive healthy Americans from the insurance market just as Trump stops making subsidy payments to health insurance companies. The result could be upheaval in health insurance marketplaces for 2018.

Even with the year-end successes by Republicans, Trump approval averages in the 30s and Democrats hold a 15-point lead on the generic congressional ballot as the country heads into a midterm election year. Trump’s twitter rants and feuds with such varied targets as the FBI, Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), the National Football League and pretty much every media outlet may be a big part of the GOP’s image problem. In a country at peace and experiencing a good economy, Trump’s unpopularity may be unprecedented.

In spite of a year that the White House heralds as a year of “winning,” President Trump has not been able to win over the American people. If he doesn’t do so in the next 10 months, his administration may not last until 2020.

Originally published on The Resurgent

A Year of Democrat Attacks On Trump Has Been Ineffective

For the past year, Democrats have unloaded on Donald Trump with both barrels. The attacks against Mr. Trump have been withering and unrelenting. The problem for Democrats is that they have not been particularly effective.

Sure, President Trump’s approval rating has a double-digit deficit, but his numbers seem to have bottomed out in the mid-30s. The Real Clear Politics average found that Trump’s average approval was at its lowest in August at 37 percent. This was 20 points less than his disapproval rate. Since then, Trump’s numbers have improved only slightly to 39 percent, still a 16-point net disapproval rate.

The problem for Democrats is that Trump’s approval has always been low and a year of attacks has not markedly changed his numbers. This may be partly due to the large number of different tactics used by the Democrats, none of which has been a homerun. Trump has been charged with not keeping his promises, with having problems with his temperament, with lying and even with colluding with Russia and supporting white supremacists, but none of the attacks seems to be a silver bullet.

There has been speculation since 2015 that Trump’s antics would cost him support among Republicans. So far that has not happened. The Washington Examiner reported last month that two polls showed Republican support for Trump was still at 75 percent. Trump’s Republican support may be eroded by the failure to repeal Obamacare and enact tax reform, a rumored amnesty for DACA participants, not building the wall, or his recent pivots to Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), but few Republicans would be likely to back a Democrat alternative.

To secure a victory in the midterms and 2020, Democrats need to offer independent voters something other than “Not Trump” and it is here that they are falling flat. Politico reports that the traditional Democrat platform planks don’t excite many voters outside the Democrat base. Voters worry that free college tuition proposals will still cost them money. Obamacare has gained majority approval and the idea of government health care for all is gaining popularity, but it still generates suspicion and is very divisive.

Democrats are learning the same lesson that the Republicans were faced with during the Obama era. Opposition to an unpopular president will only get you so far. An agenda that convinces people that you can make their lives better is needed to seal the deal.

It is on this point that one Democrat line of attack seems to show promise. Politico notes that a recent DCCC poll showed that Democrats lead President Trump by 17 points on the question of who “fights for people like me.” Last February, Trump and the Democrats each received 50 percent on the question. The change may be the result of Democrat charges that many Trump policies, such as financial deregulation, tax reform, and opposing Obamacare, are intended to benefit the rich at the expense of everyone else.

In the end, upcoming elections are likely to be referendums on President Trump’s job performance and the economy. If undecided voters feel that the country – and their own lives and careers – are going well, then they may decide to reward Trump and the Republicans despite their misgivings.

“He is the president,” Matt Canter, a focus group analyst told Politico. “The assessment that voters will make is, is he a good one or not? While Democrats like me have come to conclusions on that question, most of the voters who will decide future elections have not.”

Originally published on The Resurgent

Poll: The GOP Is Now the Party of Trump

President Trump is drawing criticism from all sides these days. His erratic behavior, frequent tweeting and personal attacks against Attorney General Jeff Sessions have drawn criticism from even staunch Trump supporters. A new poll shows that one group is still standing by the president: Republican voters.

The new poll by Rasmussen found that Republicans support Trump over Republican members of Congress by a margin of almost three to one. When asked whether their views more closely relate to the president or congressional Republicans, 33 percent aligned with President Trump compared to 12 percent who support the congressional Republican caucus.

The finding comes amid polling that shows that most Americans disapprove of President Trump by double-digit margins. An analysis of past presidential polling by FiveThirtyEight found that Trump is more unpopular than almost any president since the dawn of modern polling in 1945. The sole competitor is Gerald Ford, whose popularity plummeted after he pardoned Richard Nixon, who resigned in the wake of the Watergate scandal.

Overall, likely voters remain sharply divided. The poll found that a total of 45 percent of respondents identified with Republicans, either in Congress or the White House, while 44 percent identified with Democrats. This is well within the three percent margin of error for the poll. Twelve percent were undecided on which party they favored.

The findings support past polls that indicated that, in spite of his missteps and lack of accomplishment, President Trump’s base is holding firm. Even though he is hemorrhaging support among moderates and independents, he remains popular among members of the Republican Party, more popular, in fact, than longtime members of the GOP.

The polling presents the disturbing picture of a party divided against itself. The evenly divided electorate means that Republicans must unite to fend off Democrat challenges in 2018, but as the president becomes even more polarizing, party unity is likely to become even more elusive. Rumors that Trump may back primary challenges to Dean Heller (R-Nev.) and Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) may further deepen the schism.

It remains to be seen whether Trump’s behavior can go far enough to alienate the Republican base. For now at least, the Grand Old Party is effectively the Party of Trump.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Trump approval is 21 points below presidential average - and falling

President Trump has had problems with his approval rating ever since entering the race for president. After almost a month in office, the situation remains unchanged. In fact, Trump’s approval rating at this point in his administration is lower than that of any other president of the modern era.

Gallup’s daily tracking of the presidential approval rating found that Trump is currently at 40 percent approval. This puts Trump 21 points below the average for presidents since polling began in the Eisenhower era. He is 11 points below the lowest previous mid-February rating, Bill Clinton in 1993 at 51 points. Jimmy Carter had the highest one-month approval at 71 percent.

President Trump is the first president since Eisenhower to start with approval below 50 percent and has already moved further into negative territory. As he was inaugurated, Trump had 45 percent approval, five points above his current level. On average, presidents have gained one percentage point by mid-February, but Presidents Eisenhower, Obama and Clinton also saw their ratings decline. At seven points, President Clinton had the largest decline.

So far, only Bill Clinton has fallen below 40 percent approval in his first year. Trump stands one point away from the dubious distinction of being the second to do so.

Trump’s approval is concentrated within the Republican Party. Eighty-seven percent of Republicans approve of the president while only 35 percent of independents and eight percent of Democrats approve.

At less than a month into his presidency, Trump has plenty of time to win over the American public, but this may require a change of style. Such a change is something that Trump seems very unlikely to do. His approval may also benefit if his policies lead to a dramatic improvement in the economy.

Although it is still much too early to make predictions, the president’s prospects for re-election seem dim unless he can appeal to a broader range of voters. Or unless the Democrats nominate another historically unpopular and incompetent candidate.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Polls diverge on Trump Executive Orders

- http://nyphotographic.com/

There has been much celebrating in Republican circles over the recent poll results showing that slim majorities approve of President Trump’s Executive Orders including the controversial temporary immigration ban. One poll doesn’t represent the full picture, however, and other recent polls show that the waters of public opinion are sufficiently muddy to keep either side from claiming the support of a majority of the public.

The most recent poll, from Morning Consult/Politico, shows public opinion in favor of all of Trump’s Executive Orders. The immigration ban ranks as one of the most popular with 55 percent approval to 38 percent disapproval.

Interestingly, one day earlier, Politico headlined an article about another poll “Majority of U.S. voters oppose Trump immigration actions.” The Politico piece detailed a Quinnipiac poll that showed that voters disapproved of the immigration ban. Quinnipiac broke the Executive Order into parts and found that voters opposed the 90-day ban on immigrants from the seven listed nations by 51 to 46 percent. They also opposed the 120-day suspension of the refugee program by 60-37 percent and the indefinite ban on Syrian refugees by 70-26 percent.

CNN released a poll last week that also showed that public opinion was not on President Trump’s side. The CNN/ORC poll found that 53 percent opposed the travel ban while 47 percent were in favor.

All three polls also give an approval rating for President Trump. Morning Consult puts the president’s approval highest at 47 percent. Quinnipiac rates him lowest at 42 percent. CNN/ORC is in the middle at 44 percent.

So who is right when polls report different results? The tendency for many people is to simply pick the result that we like best, use it reinforce our preconceived ideas about what the rest of the country thinks and move on. President Trump, who recently tweeted that “any negative polls are fake news,” is a prime example of this mentality.

Some indicators of accuracy can be found by looking at the nuts and bolts of the polls. Often, a link to the actual poll can be found in news articles. If not, a web search can sometimes turn up the raw data that is available to journalists. I have linked directly to the raw polling data for the three polls discussed above.

The first indication of accuracy is who was polled. “Likely voters” are the most prized sort of sample group in polls. These are considered to be people engaged and informed enough to vote and who plan to do so. “Registered voters” are next best thing. These are people who probably have some awareness of current events and who have probably voted at some time in the past. From there, poll results get less accurate as we go to “adults” and “Americans.” These samples don’t necessarily screen for the ability to vote or interest in doing so.

Polling data will also give the sample size. Obviously, a larger sample is better and generates a smaller margin of error.

Often, polls will describe how the poll was conducted as well. This could be in person, on the telephone or on the internet. The methodology can affect the results. Politico notes that Trump’s numbers are better in online surveys than in polls conducted by phone. If the poll is a straw poll conducted on the internet by anyone who can get to the website, it is worthless for determining true public opinion.

So how do the samples in our recent polls stack up? The Morning Consult poll was conducted online among 2,070 registered voters. This generated a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points. The Quinnipiac poll used landline and mobile phones to contact 1,155 voters. The smaller sample gives it a margin of error of 2.9 points. Finally, CNN/ORC interviewed 1,002 “adult Americans” by telephone. The margin of error on this poll is three points.

So all of the polls have pros and cons. The Morning Consult poll has the smallest margin of error, but the methodology may have inflated the pro-Trump score. Quinnipiac’s margin of error is larger, but telephone calls are more accurate, especially when mobile phones are included. CNN’s small size and sample that wasn’t restricted to voters is the least accurate.

Additionally, when examining polls, consider the way the question is asked. Is it asked in a misleading or biased way? Are there numerous possible answers or is it a binary choice? How many respondents chose “undecided” if that is an option?

Also consider the reputation of the pollster. Some polling firms are associated with a political party. For example, Public Policy Polling is a Democratic firm and their results may reflect a partisan bias. Rasmussen and Gallup are the gold standard of polling, but most polls that are associated with legitimate news sites are reasonably accurate. Morning Consult, Quinnipiac and CNN are all reputable pollsters.

It is worth noting that Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll shows Trump with 53 percent approval and 57 percent disapproval. Gallup, on the other hand, shows almost a mirror image with Trump’s approval at 43 percent and 52 percent disapproval.

Polling is hard.

So how should we interpret the varying results of polling on Trump’s Executive Orders? The best solution is to not put our eggs in one basket with any one poll. Consider each poll a snapshot of a landscape that is changing. The real answer is most likely somewhere near the average of the results.

Don’t just look at the raw numbers of the polls, especially if the differences are close, as there are. Instead, look for trends and the general direction of the movement of the numbers. Are things looking better for Trump, or worse? Is his margin increasing or narrowing? Discard outliers, polls that are dramatically different and isolated in their results, unless there is good reason to believe that trends are changing rapidly.

The most important takeaway on the current batch of polls is that the nation is split down the middle on the Executive Orders. Whether there is a slight majority in favor of President Trump’s actions or a slight majority against him, polling definitely shows that the president and the Republicans face opposition from a large segment of the electorate.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Trump sets record for low approval on Inauguration Day

There was much consternation over the weekend about how many people showed up for President Trump’s inauguration and whether more or fewer people saw him take the oath of office than previous presidents. The bottom line is that it doesn’t really matter. The number of people who make a pilgrimage to Washington has no bearing on how a president should govern. Aside from that, counting inauguration viewers is largely a subjective task.

There is a more objective way to determine a president’s popularity. It’s called polling and yesterday Gallup released a poll showing President Trump’s approval rating as compared to other presidents on their Inauguration Day. Unfortunately for Mr. Trump, the poll shows him to be the least popular newly inaugurated president of modern times.

The poll found that American adults were evenly split with 45 percent approving of Trump and 45 percent disapproving. The country was split along party lines. Mr. Trump had 90 percent approval among Republicans and 81 percent disapproval with Democrats. Forty percent of independents favored him with 44 percent disapproving.

Trump’s strongest demographics were non-Hispanic whites (56 percent approval) and the over-65 age group (53 percent). His strongest disapproval came from college graduates (57 percent) and 18-29-year-olds (54 percent).

The 45 percent approval rating makes Trump the least popular president at inauguration since the question was first asked as Dwight Eisenhower took office. The second worst inaugural approval was a tie between Ronald Reagan and George Herbert Walker Bush. Both men took office with 51 percent approval, but had few who disapproved of them. Barack Obama took office on a high note of 68 percent approval.

The flip side of the poll is that Trump’s disapproval is also higher than past presidents. No other president comes close to Trump’s 45 percent disapproval on Inauguration Day. The second highest disapproval was for George W. Bush, another president who lost the popular vote. Bush had a 25 percent disapproval rating.

One bright spot for the Trump Administration is that rival pollster Rasmussen showed a somewhat better 55 percent approval rating for Mr. Trump on Monday. This poll showed an almost identical 44 percent disapproval.

The difference in approval may be because Rasmussen polls likely voters where Gallup asks adults. Rasmussen also doesn’t include “no opinion” as an answer. Ten percent of respondents in the Gallup poll chose this option.

Both polls show a starkly divided country. President Trump and the Republicans control the levers of power, but they would do well to remember that a large part of the country does not support them. If they charge ahead with divisive policies rather than building a consensus of public opinion, voters may quickly turn against them.

If you think this is unlikely, remember that it happened to President Obama and the Democrats very recently.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Republicans are be divided with or without Trump

(Michael Vadon/Wikimedia)

As Republican delegates get ready to head to Cleveland for the party’s convention next week, the debate has shifted to whether party members should follow the will of Republican voters and anoint Donald Trump as the Republican nominee or whether they should act as a failsafe device and reject the unpopular choice of the voters for another candidate. Trump supporters argue that such a move would divide the GOP and make a Hillary victory inevitable. In reality, Donald Trump has already divided the Republican Party and almost definitely assured a Hillary win.

Donald Trump’s candidacy in and of itself has divided the Republican Party as no (other) Democrat could ever hope to do. Trump’s unpopularity is no longer news. The businessman’s most notable political accomplishment, aside from becoming the presumptive nominee, is making Hillary Clinton look good by comparison.

Trump’s unfavorable rating has consistently hovered in the 60 percent range according to Real Clear Politics, worse than Hillary’s approval, which itself is nothing to brag about. A New York Times poll found that Trump is considered less trustworthy than Hillary, again no mean feat, and his values are shared by fewer voters than are Hillary’s values.  

Fundamental problems with Trump’s character are causing his base to splinter. The same Times poll reports that “three in ten voters who supported other Republican candidates” say that they will not support Trump in November. A more recent CNN poll found that 48 percent of Republicans would prefer that the GOP choose someone else as its nominee. NBC News and the Wall St. Journal found even more Republicans dissatisfied with Trump at 52 percent.

Prominent Republicans such as George Will, Max Boot and Hank Paulson have announced their intention to support Hillary over Trump. CNN recently reported on a grassroots “Republican Women for Hillary” movement. Even former First Lady Laura Bush has hinted that she may support Clinton over Trump.

The Republican Party is clearly divided over Donald Trump. In contrast to Trumps -30 percent net approval rating, by July 2012 Mitt Romney, another unpopular candidate, had an approval rating that broke even on average. Romney also worked hard to unify the party against President Obama and the Democrats. Trump’s attitude has been one of “my way or the highway.” Trump backer Sarah Palin has even taken to calling Trump opponents “R.A.T.’s,” an acronym for “Republicans against Trump.”

Perhaps related to Trump’s personality problems are his strategic problems. Traditional GOP donors are not rallying behind Trump. USA Today reports that the Team Trump has only $1.3 million on hand compared to $42 million for the Hillary campaign. Hillary’s campaign staff is 10 times larger than Trump’s and, according to Politico, Trump campaign staff in battleground states is almost nonexistent. 

All of the above has contributed to a growing revolt against Trump. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that anti-Trump activists were close to gaining enough votes at the convention to unbind delegates. A federal ruling on Monday held that Virginia delegates could not be required by state law to vote for the winner of their state primary. As Trump’s erratic behavior continues, it seems that struggle for the nomination will be completed on the convention floor.

The bottom line for Republican delegates as they get ready to make their way to Cleveland is that they are caught between the proverbial rock and the hard place. If Donald Trump emerges from the convention as the nominee, a large number of Republicans are likely to sit out the election or vote against Trump. With a fragmented base and support cratering among Hispanics, blacks and women (where he trails by 17 percent), Trump seems to destined to lose if he is formally nominated. There simply aren’t enough Republican voters in the white male demographic, the only segment of the electorate that seems to favor him, to allow Trump to win.

On the other hand, if convention delegates are able dump Trump, the party will be split along different fault lines. Trump’s core supporters will likely desert the GOP. They may well take with them moderate Republicans who feel that the party should honor the outcome of the popular vote, even if they don’t agree with the majority’s choice of Trump. Once again, this scenario would probably end in a Clinton victory.

Republican delegates are left with an unenviable choice. Either course will, in all probability, split the party and result in Clinton presidency. 

Read it on Conservative Firing Line

You'll never guess which candidate polls best on the economy!

The results are in on a new Gallup poll that checks the opinions of potential American voters on the economic prospects of presidential candidates. The results will be shocking to many political observers and activists. Few readers will guess which candidate ranked as most trusted on the economy.

The poll of 1,015 adults who are potential voters had a margin of error of four percentage points and tested how the respondents viewed the five remaining candidates for president. The benchmark against which the candidates were measured was another recent Gallup poll which found that 50 percent still had a “great deal” or a “fair amount” of confidence in President Obama’s economic leadership. None of the 2016 candidates beat President Obama.

Shockingly, the candidate who scored best on the economy was none other than avowed socialist Bernie Sanders. Forty-seven percent had a “great deal” or a “fair amount” of confidence in the Vermont senator. The top three candidates were in a statistical tie with John Kasich at 46 percent and Hillary Clinton at 43 percent. The poll is another reminder that Sanders could mount a very formidable campaign and that conservatives should take him seriously.

The pair of Republican frontrunners finished a distant fourth and fifth. Ted Cruz had the confidence of 35 percent. Donald Trump was trusted by only 30 percent.

John Kasich was the only one of the five with a net positive confidence rating. Kasich’s 46 percent confidence was greater than the 43 percent who had “only a little” or “almost no confidence” in him, giving him a net confidence rating of 3 percent. Barack Obama’s net rating was two percent due to the 48 percent with little or no confidence in his economic policy.

Every other candidate had a negative rating. Forty-nine percent had little or no confidence in Sanders for a net of -2 percent. Clinton’s net was -13 percent (43/56). Ted Cruz scored a -25 (35/60). As with overall approval ratings, the big loser was Donald Trump with lowest confidence score and the highest score of little or no confidence. Trump’s net rating was an abysmal -38 (30/68).

The poll does offer a glimmer of hope for Republicans. In the breakdown by party ideology, Sanders and Kasich also lead among independents by 46 and 43 percent respectively. Neither Sanders nor Kasich is likely to be the eventual nominee however.

Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee, fares much more poorly among independents (35 percent) than she does among voters overall. On the other hand, Cruz and Trump do almost as well among independents as they do among the general electorate (32 and 30 percent respectively). The Republican candidate will have to do well with moderates and independents to beat Mrs. Clinton and these numbers indicate a weakness for her on the economy with these voters.

Another recent Gallup poll indicates that almost 40 percent of voters rate the economy as the most important problem facing the country. With voter trust between Cruz, Trump and Clinton essentially tied on handling of the economy, it may give the Republican candidate a chance to erase Mrs. Clinton’s current lead in the polls.

One last takeaway from the poll is the curious fact that, as noted with candidate approval ratings earlier this month, the candidates that are liked most by voters at large are rejected by large numbers of the faithful of both parties. This may be an indication that both parties are moving farther apart and leaving a large number of disaffected voters in the middle who are unhappy with all three frontrunners. This may lead to a low turnout election or provide an opening for a third party.

Read it on Conservative Firing Line or Freedom Daily!

Trump and Cruz approval hits record low; both may be unelectable

As the two leading contenders for the Republican nomination continue to hammer each other in round after round of primaries, it seems likely that neither will achieve a knockout or win enough delegates to win a decision at the convention. At this point, the main accomplishment of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz seems to have been to bruise and bloody each other enough so that neither is likely to be able to beat the presumed Democrat champion, Hillary Clinton.

A recent Gallup poll comparing approval ratings for the remaining candidates found that the historically poor view of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz held by Americans reached a new low amid their insults and squabbling over everything from wives to who would deport more illegal immigrants. Trump and Cruz approval ratings are the lowest of all remaining candidates.

Donald Trump, the perennially unpopular candidate who has been continually reviled since his campaign’s inception last summer, continues to hold the most negative rating with a net approval rating of -35. For those of you in Rio Lindo, this means that people who disapprove of Trump outnumber those who approve of him by 35 points. According to Washington Post research, Trump has the most negative rating of any serious presidential candidate ever. The only candidate who has ever rated worse than Mr. Trump is David Duke, a former Ku Klux Klan leader who ran for the Republican nomination in 1992.

Ted Cruz fares better in Gallup’s findings, but not by much. Cruz, who held a positive approval rating as recently as December has seen his rating plummet to near-Trumpian levels. Cruz’s -16 rating is actually one point higher than Donald Trump’s all-time high. Like Marco Rubio, whose campaign imploded when he adopted Trump’s tactics, Cruz is being tarnished by his tit for tat with The Donald.

Ironically, the third place finisher who is the odds on favorite to become the next president, Hillary Clinton, also has a negative rating. Nevertheless, the only candidate under investigation by the FBI (that we know of) and the only candidate who is likely to be indicted during the campaign, is still more popular than Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Her -11 rating is not her lowest and actually seems to be an improvement. Hillary’s approval rating has been remarkably consistent, even if slightly underwater, for the entire campaign.

The negative ratings of the two most likely Republican contenders may explain the increase in party identification among Democrats over the past few months. In the latest Gallup poll of party affiliation, Democrats led Republicans by six points. When leaners were taken into account, Democrats held an 8 point advantage. This margin is practically identical to the Democratic lead over Republicans as the 2012 elections approached.

Who fares best in the current public opinion? Ironically, it is John Kasich with a net favorable rating of 19 points who looks best to American voters. In a somewhat close second, Bernie Sanders finishes with a net positive rating of 10 percent.

Why are the also-rans finishing so much better than the frontrunners? In the case of Trump and Cruz, it might be that their attacks on each other have left the public with a sour taste its mouth. The anti-establishment and hardline immigration rhetoric of the pair might also simply not resonate with voters outside the Republican Party’s base.

Bernie Sanders’ popularity may be a rejection of Hillary Clinton among the Democratic Party base. Hillary is not generally well liked or trusted even among Democrats. Her FBI investigation and looming possible indictment have not gone unnoticed. Neither have the fundraising practices of the Clinton Foundation or Clinton connections to Wall Street. Sanders’ combination of democratic socialism and folksy populism is appealing for a party whose base has drifted farther and farther left during the eight years of the Obama Administration.

The widespread dissatisfaction with the leading candidates spells trouble for both parties. Ironically, for all their division Republicans may have an advantage here. If no Republican can win a majority and clinch the nomination, an open convention may present the party with a rare chance for a do-over. Scott Walker, the Republican governor of Wisconsin recently told The Cap Times, “I think if it’s an open convention, it’s very likely it would be someone who’s not currently running. I mean, who knows?”

Due to the nature of the Democratic race, Democrats will have no such opportunity for a split decision. With only two candidates running for the Democratic nomination, there will be only one winner and one loser. For better or for worse, Democrats will be stuck with the choice of their primary voters and superdelegates.

For Republicans who support none of the above remaining candidates, there is hope that the convention delegates will find a better candidate. The job of a political party is to nominate a candidate who can win. That job may well end up in the hands of convention delegates.

Read it on Conservative Firing Line and Freedom Daily

Majority calls Obama a failure

A new poll from the Washington Post and ABC News released on Tuesday shows that a majority of Americans believe that Barack Obama is a failure as president. Fifty-two percent of registered voters say that the Obama Administration has been a failure while only 42 percent call it a success.

The poll also found that voters disapprove of Obama’s handling of a variety of issues by strong margins. Obama’s overall approval as president and his handling of the economy were both at 41 percent. Approval for international affairs and the handling of the health law was at 38 percent. Obama’s handling of immigration had the approval of only 31 percent.

Thirty-one percent also believe that the country is on the wrong track. Seventy-four percent are dissatisfied with the way the federal government works. Of these, 25 percent are angry at the federal government.

Most voters feel that Obama is not a strong leader (55 percent) and is too cautious in international affairs (53 percent). Fifty-five percent believe that he has done more to divide the country than unite it. On the other hand, even after numerous scandals, a slight majority (49 percent) believe that he is honest and trustworthy and understands the problems of people like them.

With respect to the upcoming election, 35 percent rate the economy and jobs as the most important issue. At the same time, 69 percent rate the economy as poor or not so good. Voters believe that Republicans can do a better job on the economy by a 45-40 margin.

On Obamacare, 52 percent of voters disapprove while 43 percent favor the law. Even though most voters dislike the law, 57 percent think that it should go ahead. Only 39 percent of voters favor a repeal of Obamacare.

The news is not all bad for Democrats, however. Only 15 percent approve of Congress, but congressional Democrats have a higher approval rating (33 percent) than Republicans (21 percent). Forty-five percent approve of the job that their own representative is doing. Democrat voters are also more enthusiastic about voting (71 percent) than Republicans (63 percent).

The most heartening item for the Democrats may be in an analysis of the demographics of the poll by the Washington Post’s Aaron Blake. Blake points out that while 25 percent of Democrats and 29 percent of liberals consider Obama a failure, there is one important demographic group that considers him a success. Moderate voters consider Obama a success by a slight margin (48-44 percent). This is the group that decides many elections.

 

Read the full article on National Elections Examiner