Showing posts with label elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label elections. Show all posts

Friday, July 27, 2018

Democrat Bill Would Outlaw Fake Election News


It seems that President Trump regularly makes the news for his rhetorical attacks on the freedom of press and journalists. Now some Democrats, apparently eager to prove that they are ambivalent about the First Amendment as well, want to criminalize certain types of speech about elections.

The Huffington Post reports that Democrat Sens. Claire McCaskill (Mo.), Ben Cardin (Md.), Doug Jones (Ala.) and Patrick Leahy (Vt.). plan to introduce legislation that would make it a federal crime to knowingly spread false information about voter registration and qualifications or the time and place of elections. Democratic Reps. A. Donald McEachin (Va.) and Jerry Nadler (N.Y.) will introduce companion legislation in the House.

“Misinformation campaigns intended only to suppress the vote and disenfranchise Missourians are crimes that run counter to our democratic values, and the punishment for those actions should fit the crime,” Sen. McCaskill said in a statement.

The Post cites several examples of election hoaxes from recent elections. Flyers in Maine in 2016 falsely told college students that they had to “pay to change your driver’s license to Lewiston” and “pay to re-register” their vehicles if they wanted to vote locally. The Republican mayor of Mansfield, Ga. posted a message to his Facebook page that read, “Remember the voting days: Republicans vote on Tuesday, 11/8 and Democrats vote on Wednesday, 11/9.”

Of the two examples, the first seems to be a serious attempt at voter suppression while the second is an obvious joke. I’ve heard the same joke in more elections than I can remember and no one ever seemed to take it seriously. It seemed funny when I first heard it about 20 years ago, but now seems as tired as, “That was no lady, that was my wife.”

In either case, the First Amendment defender in me argues that the best reaction to false speech and fake news is not criminalizing speech that we don’t like it, but in countering it with more speech that is good and true. There are ample opportunities for political groups to educate voters on the real election and voter registration rules in their state.

There is also the question of how effective such a “fake speech” law would be. The speech police might snare jokesters like the mayor of Mansfield, but it is less likely that they would catch the anonymous culprits who printed the flyers in Maine. Flyers printed cheaply on a home copier or printer would be hard to trace unless police nabbed someone in the act of handing them out.

When it comes to fake news, the Democrats need to remember that the First Amendment prohibits the government from making any law “abridging the freedom of speech.” It does not include exceptions for fake speech, hate speech or things that people find offensive.

Republicans should remember that the same guarantees apply to the freedom of the press as well. The last thing that proponents of small government should want is for government bureaucrats to determine what is true and what is fake or unfair.

In the end, it is a voter’s responsibility to register and educate themselves on candidates and elections. When there are real and serious attempts to mislead potential voters, these reprehensible acts make it more difficult to exercise the right to vote, but no one ever said that democracy was easy. One of the most difficult aspects of maintaining democracy may be guarding against well-intentioned but poorly thought out laws that erode our basic constitutional rights.


Originally published on The Resurgent

Thursday, August 3, 2017

Gun Owners of America endorses candidates in Alabama special senate election

The Gun Owners of America (GOA) has endorsed two candidates for senator in the race to fill the seat of Jeff Sessions, who was appointed by Donald Trump to become  attorney general. Interestingly, neither of the two recommended candidates is the sitting Republican senator who was appointed to Sessions’ seat in the interim by a former governor.

In a press release, the GOA said that it supports Rep. Mo Brooks and former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Judge Roy Moore to fill Sessions’ seat in the Senate. Tim Macy, chairman of the GOA, praised Brooks and Moore for their “strong, uncompromising records on gun rights.”
“Mo Brooks has an ‘A’ rating from GOA as U.S. Representative, and Judge Moore has long been an articulate, and uncompromising, champion for gun rights,” Macy said in the release. “Either of these candidates would fight for gun rights, instead of the D.C. establishment.”

The current frontrunner in the field of 11 Republicans and eight Democrats is the incumbent Senator Luther Strange. Strange was appointed to fill Sessions’ seat by the disgraced Robert Bentley, who was forced to resign as governor after his affair with Rebekah Mason and the subsequent cover up became a national scandal. Strange previously served as Alabama’s attorney general and had responsibility for investigating Gov. Bentley’s crimes. The circumstances of Strange’s appointment as he investigated the governor left a sour taste in the mouths of many Alabamans, especially after accusations that Strange intentionally delayed the impeachment proceedings against Bentley for six months.

Some political opponents are also attempting to tie Strange to the case of Oliver Robinson, a state legislator accused of taking $360,000 in bribes. The Project on Government Oversight reported that Strange and many other Alabama politicians, including Jeff Sessions, took money from Drummond Coal and Balch & Bingham, a Birmingham law firm. Drummond and Balch are accused of paying bribes to Robinson in connection with an EPA Superfund site that would have cost the coal company tens of millions of dollars in cleanup funds.

The Alabama Ethics Commission was also scheduled to hold a hearing on alleged campaign finance violations by Strange on August 2. The Resurgent reported that the hearing was postponed until August 16, the day after the Republican primary for the special election.

The reason that GOA is not supporting Strange is a simple one. “Strange has pledged his loyalty to Senate leaders,” Macy said. “Unfortunately, he has quickly become a ‘Swamp Creature.’”

The Washington Examiner reported that the Senate Leadership Fund, a Super PAC affiliated with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), spent millions of dollars to buy attack ads against both Brooks and Moore. The support from McConnell will further cement the perception that Strange is part of the Republican establishment.

Mo Brooks is currently a congressman from Alabama’s fifth district, which incorporates the northern part of the state. Brooks has served in the House of Representatives since 2011. He endorsed Ted Cruz for president in 2016 and was critical of Donald Trump throughout the campaign, a fact which Strange has used to attack him. In 2011, the American Conservative Union called Brooks the most conservative member of the Alabama House delegation. He maintains an 89 percent lifetime rating from the ACU.

Roy Moore is best known outside Alabama for his battle with the federal judiciary over the Ten Commandments. As chief justice, Moore kept a promise to install a Ten Commandments monument in the state Supreme Court building. He was removed from office by the Alabama Court of the Judiciary in 2003 for refusing to obey a federal court order to remove the monument. He was reelected as chief justice in 2012, but was forced to resign for refusing to uphold the Supreme Court ruling on same-sex marriage.

Both Brooks and Moore have a large following in Alabama, while Strange has the advantages of incumbency and support of the party leadership. Recent polling shows Strange and Moore in a statistical heat with 35 and 33 percent respectively. Brooks trails with 16 percent.

The primary vote for the special election will be held on August 15. If no Republican earns more than 50 percent of the vote, the top two finishers will face each other in a runoff on September 26. The special election will be held on December 12.


Originally published on The Resurgent

Saturday, February 4, 2017

Survey showing most conservative states is good news for Republicans


Gallup has just released a new survey showing the most conservative and liberal states in the nation. Overall, the picture looks just as you’d expect with liberal states concentrated on the West Coast and in the Northeast while the South and upper Rocky Mountains are the most conservative areas.

Contrary to popular belief, neither liberals nor conservatives hold an absolute majority in any state, although conservatives are very close in Wyoming, the most conservative state in the country. Forty-nine percent of Wyomingites self-identify as conservative. This yields a 35-point advantage over the 14 percent of the Wyoming population considered to be liberal.

A number of other states have conservative populations in excess of 40 percent as well. In fact, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Idaho all have conservative populations of greater than 45 percent.

Vermont tops the list of most liberal states. With 40 percent liberal and only 26 percent conservative, liberals have a 14-point advantage.

Interestingly, far fewer voters identify as liberal in blue states than do conservatives in red states. Many deep blue states are characterized by a difference of only a few points. For example, in Massachusetts, the second most liberal state, liberals only lead conservatives by eight points. In the next two most liberal states, Connecticut and New York, the difference is four and two points respectively. Believe it or not, in deep blue, far left California, conservatives actually outnumber liberals 30-29 percent.

When the state totals are examined, the share of moderate voters remains relatively constant. Moderates make up about a third of the electorate in almost every state. With neither party at a majority anywhere, moderates are the decisive group in most elections.

Even though the poor showing for liberals in blue states may indicate an unwillingness of some liberals to accept the liberal label, the polling results indicate an opening for conservatives in many blue states. If the ideological groups are statistically equal in a state like California, Republicans can win this Democratic stronghold by making inroads to the moderates in the mushy middle of the political spectrum. Splitting the moderate vote could swing the state to the GOP.

Conversely, in the 19 states where Republicans make up more than 40 percent of the electorate, Democrats would need to win virtually all moderate votes to move any of these states to the blue column.

The problem for Republicans is that a Gallup poll from last year showing party identification indicated that almost all of the state’s moderates identified as Democrats.  California’s actual election results showed that, at 32 percent, the Trump vote in California was almost identical to Gallup’s estimates of conservatives and Republicans for the state. Donald Trump lost practically all moderate and independent voters for the state.

The trend is national as well. CNN exit polls show a breakdown of 26 percent liberal, 39 percent moderate and 35 percent conservative in the 2016 election. Trump lost the moderate vote 40-52 percent, but still won the election.

Moderates didn’t flock to Trump, whose share of the group was almost identical to Mitt Romney, but many did abandon Clinton. Trump’s victory was partly due to the eight percent of moderates, the largest ideological demographic, who voted for “someone else.”

Gallup’s survey also showed that the usual swing states all have about a 10-point conservative advantage. Colorado and New Hampshire, both with a 9-point conservative advantage, were the most liberal swing states.

The polling data indicates that winning blue states, as Donald Trump did, is a realistic goal for Republicans. A winning strategy would be to nominate conservative candidates who also have a strong appeal to moderate and independent voters.

Go here to find out how conservative your state is.


Originally published on The Resurgent

Friday, January 6, 2017

Blue states consider ballot access laws to block Trump in 2020

Donald Trump’s refusal to release his tax returns was a controversial issue for many during the election. Now some blue state legislators are proposing a “TRUMP” law for ballot access in future elections. A proposed law in New York is actually named the “Tax Returns Uniformly Made Public” Act, the TRUMP Act for short.

According to the Washington Post, lawmakers in California, New York, Maryland, Massachusetts and Maine will introduce bills that require candidates to release their tax returns to appear on ballots in their states. The proposal is obviously directed at President-elect Donald Trump, who said in 2014 that he would release his tax returns if he ran for president, but failed to do so during the campaign.

Although not required, presidential candidates have long released their tax returns to show that they had nothing to hide. The tradition goes back to George Romney, Mitt Romney’s father, who ran unsuccessfully for president in 1968.

At issue is whether to codify the tradition or let the voters decide how much weight to place on whether a candidate releases tax information or not. “We all expected anyone who is going to be in front of the public and lead our nation would be transparent,” said Maryland Sen. Paul G. Pinsky (D-Prince George's County) in the Post. “He chose not to be, and we want to make sure that doesn’t happen again in the future from any candidate.”

Senate Minority Leader J.B. Jennings (R-Baltimore County) disagrees. “To me, it just looks like sour grapes over the election,” said Jennings. “We don’t reveal our tax returns as legislators. Why are you doing it for the president and not every other office too?”

If the legislation passes, it could become an issue if Trump decides to run for re-election in 2020. At that point, the previous four years of returns will show the presidential salary as well as Trump’s business income since he has said that he will not divest himself of his business empire. The Trump Organization’s ventures around the world provide many opportunities for Trump opponents to accuse the new president of conflicts of interest, charges that might be confirmed by Trump’s taxes.

In 2016, the five states in question were all won by Hillary Clinton. In four of the five, the Democrat won by more than a 10-point margin. The sole state where TRUMP laws are being considered and might significantly impact the race is Maine.

In Maine, the winner of the popular vote gets two electoral votes and one electoral vote goes to the winner of each of the two congressional districts. This year Clinton won the state popular vote by 2.7 percent as well as the first congressional district. Trump won the second congressional district, which entitled him to one of Maine’s four electoral votes.

Whether TRUMP laws would be constitutional is also an open question. In 1995, the Supreme Court ruled that states cannot impose additional requirements on candidates beyond those listed in the Constitution when it struck down term limits. Rand Paul had hinted at suing the State of Kentucky over a ballot access law that prohibited a candidate from being listed for two separate offices on the same ballot. The Supreme Court has allowed states to set some requirements for ballot access, such as requiring signatures of voters, but struck down others, such as filing fees.

While TRUMP Acts might impact a future election, they have a long way to go. Most bills never become law and, with only one electoral vote at stake, we’ll bet that Donald Trump won’t lose any sleep over TRUMP Acts yet.


Originally published on The Resurgent

Thursday, May 15, 2014

Armed rebellion is not a conservative idea

With the recent revelations that some members of the militia defending Cliven Bundy’s Nevada ranch may have plotted to raid a U.S. Air Force installation, it seems necessary to hold a logical discussion of the risks of armed revolt against the federal government. An astonishing number of Americans are coming to believe that armed conflict between Americans and their government may be likely or even inevitable. Last year, a Fairleigh Dickinson poll found that 29 percent of Americans believed that armed revolution might be necessary within a few years to protect civil liberties. Almost half of Republicans held this view.

The fact that this option is even being considered by otherwise rational people is an indictment of the state of the country and the ongoing degradation of the rule of law under Barack Obama and the Democrats. The push to implement Obamacare against the opposition of the majority of Americans is only the tip of the iceberg of grievances against the present administration. On many occasions, the Obama Administration has chosen to ignore written law or implemented its own will over that of Congress by executive fiat. The revelations of domestic surveillance by the National Security Agency have convinced Americans that they are monitored constantly by the federal intelligence apparatus. The harassment of ordinary Americans by the Internal Revenue Service acts to intimidate citizens who care enough to get involved in the political process in opposition to the president. The trickle of information about the Benghazi killings argues that the Obama Administration would let Americans die and cover up the cause for political gain.

Into this mix of ever more intrusive government power and well-earned mistrust of those in charge comes those who, fueled by conspiracy theories of federal gun grabs, UN troops on American soil, “false flag” terror attacks, and FEMA concentration camps, feel that the only way to preserve American freedom is to violently rise up and destroy the current federal government which has expanded far beyond it limited constitutional role.

The potent mix of paranoia, misguided patriotism, and paramilitary training has produced a number of domestic terror plots in the past. Although Timothy McVeigh’s bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City is the best known militia-based terror plot, McVeigh was far from being the only such plotter. One of the most recent plots to be broken was the Hutaree group in Michigan, which planned to murder local police officers. A lesser known case was the Tyler, Texas cyanide bomb plot from 2003 in which several people were arrested with a cyanide gas bomb that could have killed thousands.

Those who argue for an armed rebellion to preserve the Constitution miss the obvious fact that armed rebellion is itself unconstitutional. The Second Amendment preserves the right of the people to keep and bear arms, but there is no right to take up those arms against the constitutionally established and democratically elected government of the United States.

The First Amendment protects the “right of the people to peaceably assemble, and to petition the government for redress of grievances.” There is no mention of a right to violently fight to overthrow the government.

In contrast, the Constitution makes clear that an armed rebellion would be a justification for an even greater abridgment of rights. Article I Section 9 provides that the “writ of habeas corpus shall not be suspended, unless when in cases of rebellion or invasion the public safety may require it[emphasis mine].”

The fledgling United States of America suffered its first rebellion long before the Civil War. In 1791, during the presidency of George Washington, a group of Pennsylvania farmers, angered by a federal tax on whiskey rebelled against the federal government. President Washington and founding father Alexander Hamilton, at the time Secretary of the Treasury, did not celebrate the Whiskey Rebellion as citizens exercising their constitutionally protected right to revolt against a law that they disagreed with. Rather, they sent a force of 13,000 militia troops, led by Hamilton himself and Virginia governor Henry “Light-Horse Harry” Lee (the father of Robert E. Lee) to crush the rebellion. Most of the rebels fled, but two of the leaders were captured and convicted of treason.

That is essentially what armed rebellion is. Treason.

Article III Section 3 of the Constitution eliminates any doubt that armed revolt is treason. The Framers wrote, “Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying war against them, or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort” [emphasis mine].

If the prospect of committing treason is not enough to discourage would-be rebels from taking up arms against the federal government, there are many other practical reasons as well. The most obvious is that such a rebellion would be doomed to failure from the outset.

In both the American Revolution and the Civil War, rebels had popular support for their positions. Prior to the Revolution, patriot activists had gained control of colonial legislatures and militias. Modern militia activists are fond of claiming that only three percent of the colonial population took up arms against the British government, but the percentage of the colonists supported the struggle for independence was much higher, approximately 40 percent by the end of the war according to some recent estimates. In the Civil War, secession had overwhelming support in both the Confederate state governments and among the white Southern population.

Today, opinion polls may point to unhappiness with the current federal government, but it is beyond debate that the current government was elected by a majority of American voters. Rebels would be fighting against the democratic will of the American people. If mainstream conservatives, to say nothing of advocates of revolution, cannot win at the ballot box, it is extremely unlikely that they would be able to win a war of rebellion. Even among the people who voted against President Obama, roughly half the country, many would not support an armed revolt.

Historically speaking, insurgencies almost never defeat conventional armies. The only real hopes for most insurgencies are to outlast their foe or hope for aid from outside. In the American Revolution, the Minutemen did not defeat the Redcoats on their own. The war did not end until after the French entered the war on the American side with a massive contribution of regulars and naval ships. In Vietnam, the South did not fall to the Viet Cong as commonly believed, but to a conventional North Vietnamese invasion. In Iraq and Afghanistan, insurgents, after being defeated on the battlefield, have merely waited for American troops to withdraw.

If there is little hope of a militia insurgency defeating the federal government on its own or benefitting from a foreign intervention, the big question is how the U.S. military would react. Members of the armed forces take an oath to support and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic. In a situation with rebels illegally taking up arms against the constitutionally established and democratically elected government of the United States, the course of action that America’s soldiers would take should be clear.

The irony of an armed revolt by militia members is two-fold. On one hand, recent polling in the run-up to this year’s elections indicates that voters will hand the Democrats a historic defeat. Such a rejection of progressive policies after six years of Barack Obama and eight years of Harry Reid could indicate the electoral course correction back to constitutional principles that many militia members claim to desire. Violence against federal law enforcement or military personnel could endanger that correction by pushing moderate voters away from conservative candidates and back toward the Democratic liberals.

On the second hand, an armed revolt would give the current administration even more of an excuse to crack down on political opponents. The Obama Administration has shown the willingness to use any excuse available as a pretext for advancing anti-gun legislation and subverting individual freedoms of speech, religion and press. With a violent rebellion or insurgent campaign underway, President Obama would have the constitutional power to arrest and detain American citizens without presenting evidence against them (habeas corpus), ushering the indefinite detention of American citizens that many fear.

Conservative candidates who were perceived to agree with the insurgents who prey on their fellow Americans would likely face defeat at the polls. This would mean an increase in the liberal voting bloc that is only too willing to vote away constitutional freedoms and to confirm judges with an activist interpretation of the Constitution.

Thus, the erosion of rights feared by the militia could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Read the full article on Atlanta Conservative Examiner

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Potential Democratic presidential candidates for 2012

Even though a primary challenge to President Obama is unlikely in 2012, there are several Democrats who are probably at least considering a run. As President Obama’s approval rating continues to drop, some prominent Democrats may be tempted to throw their hats into the ring in an attempt to preserve Democratic control of the White House.

The most obvious potential candidate is Hillary Clinton, Obama’s chief rival for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination. A number of progressives are displeased with Obama and have recently been voicing remorse that Clinton was not the nominee in 2008. Mrs. Clinton instead became President Obama’s secretary of state. Reportedly, she was behind Obama’s decision to authorize military action in Libya, which is currently recognized as one of the Obama Administration’s few foreign policy triumphs. In 2008, she lost the Georgia Democratic primary to Obama by more than two-to-one, receiving 31 percent of the vote to Obama’s 66 percent.

While Clinton is one of the few Democrats with the name recognition and support network in place to mount a last minute campaign, her position in the administration makes it unlikely that she would run. To challenge Obama, she would jeopardize her position in the State Department and, if Obama wins, would probably be out of the public view for the next four years. Clinton is more likely to sit out the 2012 elections and wait for more favorable conditions for Democrats in 2016, when she would also not have to face a sitting Democratic president.

Another possible challenger is former Georgia congresswoman Cynthia McKinney. McKinney, an Atlanta native, served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1993 to 2003. She was defeated in the 2002 Democratic primary, but re-elected in 2004. She lost another congressional primary to Hank Johnson in 2006. In 2007, she joined the Green Party and was its presidential candidate in 2008, garnering .12 percent of the popular vote and earning a sixth place finish. She was not on the ballot in Georgia.

McKinney is known for her association with conspiracy theories such as the 9/11 truth movement and the belief that the government covered up thousands of deaths during the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. She is perhaps best remembered for the 2006 incident in which she was accused of striking a capitol police officer. An anti-Israel activist, she was captured by the Israeli Navy in 2009 aboard a ship attempting to run the Israeli blockade of Gaza. She has also been critical of U.S. aid to the Libyan rebels.

McKinney is currently a member of the Green Party, but might be persuaded to rejoin the Democrats to mount a challenge against President Obama. She is a vocal opponent of Obama and has called him a “war criminal” in a speech that is available on Youtube. McKinney would also negate Obama’s use of the race card in the campaign, since she is also black. Many liberals are torn between the ideology of the Greens and the established power base of the Democrats so a McKinney campaign might be a serious challenge to Obama.

Two Virginia senators, Jim Webb and Mark Warner, also rate a mention as possible candidates. Both are one te

rm senators. Webb was elected in 2006 and Warner in 2008. Both men could be considered among the last moderate Democrats. Webb served as Ronald Reagan’s assistant secretary of defense and secretary of the navy before becoming an author and filmmaker. Warner was a popular one-term governor of Virginia. Last spring, Warner teamed up with Georgia’s Saxby Chambliss to push for spending cuts.

In spite of their moderate credentials, both men voted for unpopular programs such as Obamacare and the Dodd-Frank financial reform law, as well as voting against a repeal of Obamacare. Webb, whose term ends in 2013, has already announced that he will not seek reelection. In a Public Policy poll from July 2011, Webb’s approval rating was 45 percent (with 36 percent disapproving). Warner’s approval rating was slightly better at 54 percent (with 28 percent disapproving). Neither man is well known nationally and would have to enter the race quickly in order to spread their name and message.

A final potential candidate is former senator Russ Feingold. Feingold served as Wisconsin’s senator from 1993 until losing to Tea Party insurgent Ron Johnson in the 2010 Republican landslide. Feingold is best known his work on the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform bill. He has a voting record that most Democrats would admire. Feingold was the sole vote against the PATRIOT Act and voted against the Iraq War authorization. He also voted against the Bush tax cuts, TARP, and the Defense of Marriage Act. Feingold was also considered as a possible challenger to Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker or a candidate for Wisconsin’s other senate seat. Unfortunately for Democrats, Feingold has indicated that he does not plan to run for any office in 2012.

Read this article on Examiner.com:

http://www.examiner.com/elections-2012-in-atlanta/potential-democratic-challengers-to-president-obama

Monday, September 5, 2011

Will Obama face a Democratic primary challenge?

President Obama’s approval ratings are plummeting as the summer of discontent draws to a close. The most recent polls show the president’s approval ratings at or near historic lows. Gallup showed the president with a 38 percent approval rating at the end of August, while a Rasmussen poll from early September showed that only 19 percent of voters strongly approve of President Obama’s job performance and that 40 percent strongly disapprove. A Gallup poll taken in early August showed Obama’s approval in Georgia at 48 percent.

Recent economic reports offer evidence that the president’s approval rating will not rebound in the near future. In August, the U.S. economy lost exactly as many jobs as it created for a net change of zero in the unemployment rate. Home prices are slightly higher than July, but down substantially from 2010. U.S. GDP growth was approximately one percent in the second quarter. Government estimates for both the first and second quarters were later revised down. Taken together with other economic vital signs, this means that it is likely that the economy is falling into a second recession in spite of everything that President Obama has tried.

As far back as February, Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich called for Democrats to mount a primary challenge against President Obama. Now with Obama’s policies failing and his approval rating dropping, it seems that the field is open for other progressives to challenge the president’s re-election. However, with less than six months to go until the first primaries of the 2012 election season, time is running out for Democratic challengers to enter the race. The Georgia primary is tentatively set for March 6.

In the wake of the catastrophic Democratic losses of 2010, few Democrats seem eager to challenge President Obama for the right to face the Republican challenger. With the economy continuing to falter and many of Obama’s legislative victories, such as Obamacare, still deeply unpopular with voters, the election will likely be an uphill battle for Democrats.

Historically, primary challenges to incumbent presidents are also an uphill battle. The election of 1896 is that last time that a sitting president who wanted to run again was refused the nomination by his party. In that year, President Grover Cleveland lost the Democratic nomination to William Jennings Bryan. Arthur Sewall was nominated for vice president. Bryan also received the nomination of the Populist Party, although with a different vice presidential candidate. Thomas E. Watson of Thomson, Ga., who later served as a Georgia senator, became the Populist candidate for vice president. Bryan, Sewall and Watson lost to the Republican candidates, William McKinley and Garrett Hobart.

An additional problem in challenging Barack Obama is that any Democrat who ran against the president would be open to charges of racism. Many of President Obama’s supporters have leveled this charge at conservatives and Tea Party members who have criticized the president’s policies and would be likely to use the same tactic against a fellow Democrat.

Being labeled as a racist would make it almost impossible to win the Democratic nomination. A 2009 Gallup poll showed that 19 percent of Democrats were black. Another 11 percent were Hispanic. Charges of racism would seriously inhibit a candidate’s ability to win the votes of this third of the Democratic Party.

Further, President Obama continues to enjoy strong support from black voters. Exit polling from 2008 by Politico showed that 96 percent of blacks voted for Obama. A more recent Gallup poll shows that although the president’s support among blacks has declined slightly, 83 percent still approve of him and would presumably vote for him. This is compared to 40 percent approval from the nation at large and 75 percent approval from all Democrats. Because black voters make up a significant portion of the Democratic Party and have an above-average approval for the president, it becomes even more difficult for a challenger, who may not be a minority, to win the necessary votes for the nomination.

These factors together with the short time until the first primaries make it unlikely that President Obama will face a challenge from the left for the Democratic nomination in 2012. Potential Democratic candidates, sensing another Republican sweep, will choose to wait until 2016 and run either as Barack Obama’s successor or as a challenger to a Republican incumbent.

Read this article on Examiner.com:

 

http://www.examiner.com/elections-2012-in-atlanta/democratic-primary-challenge-unlikely-for-president-obama

Friday, July 1, 2011

Meet the candidates: Michele Bachmann


It is perhaps inevitable that Michele Bachmann will be compared to that other prominent conservative woman, Sarah Palin.  Both women are outspoken Midwestern brunettes and conservative Christians.  Both are also reformers and darlings of the Tea Party movement who sometimes put their feet in their mouths.  Both may ultimately end up competing for the same Tea Party votes if Sarah Palin decides to enter the 2012 presidential campaign as well.

Bachmann was born Michele Marie Amble in Waterloo, Ia. in 1956.  Her family moved to Minnesota when she was a young girl.  Her parents later divorced there.  Her mother raised her until she remarried when Michele was a teenager. 

She graduated from high school in Anoka, Mn. in 1974.  After high school, she worked on a kibbutz in Israel even though she was raised as a Lutheran.  She told TCJewfolk.com that she considers her “heritage Jewish, because it is the foundation, the roots of my faith as a Christian.”

When she returned to the U.S., she earned a B.A. from Winona State University in Minnesota.  She then continued to the O.W. Coburn School of Law at Oral Roberts University where she earned a Juris Doctor in 1986 and the College of William and Mary where she earned an L.L.M. in tax law in 1988.  She had married Marcus Bachmann in 1978 and the couple moved to Stillwater, Mn. after her graduation from William and Mary.  Ironically, Michele met Marcus while working on Jimmy Carter’s presidential campaign in 1976.

From 1988 to 1993, Bachmann worked for the IRS as a tax attorney in St. Paul, Mn.  She left the IRS to become a full-time mother to the couple’s five children and has also raised twenty-three foster children.  Her husband, Marcus, operates a Christian counseling center. 

Bachmann’s political career began in 1999 when she ran in a nonpartisan school board election in Stillwater.  She lost that campaign, but was elected to the Minnesota state senate in 2000, defeating a long-time Republican incumbent in the primary and a Democratic-Farm-Labor (DFL) candidate in the general election.  In 2002, after senate district lines were redrawn, she ran against a ten-year DFL incumbent and was re-elected.  In 2006, she was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives where she replaced Mark Kennedy, a Republican who left the house to run for the U.S. Senate.  In congress, Bachmann is on the Financial Services Committee and the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.

While in the Minnesota senate, Bachmann was a strong defender of traditional marriage.  She introduced a definition of marriage amendment, but it failed to pass the DFL-controlled senate.  Minnesota has a Defense of Marriage law but it is not constitutionally defined.

While in congress, Bachmann has opposed the expansion of government power and spending while supporting free market solutions.  She opposed the financial and auto bailouts and supported President Bush’s Iraq War surge as well expanded domestic oil drilling.  She introduced the Light Bulb Freedom of Choice Act in response to the Democratic ban on incandescent bulbs.  She supports the repeal of President Obama’s health care reform and the Dodd-Frank financial reform.

Bachmann has also made a number of statements that smack of conspiracy theories.  In 2009, she initially refused to complete a census form because the questions had become too personal and because ACORN was involved in helping to recruit census workers. 

Also in 2009, the Minnesota Independent reported that Bachmann feared that the Edward M. Kennedy Serve America Act had “provisions for what I would call re-education camps for young people, where young people have to go and get trained in a philosophy that the government puts forward and then they have to go to work in some of these politically correct forums.”

Bachmann has also made a number of historical gaffes.  In one case, she confused Lexington and Concord in New Hampshire for the Lexington and Concord in Massachusetts where Minutemen “fired the shot heard round the world.”  In another incident, according to Politico she claimed that the Founding Fathers “worked tirelessly until slavery was no more in the United States.”  In reality, slavery continued in the United States for almost a hundred years after the founding of the country. 

More recently, when she made her candidacy announcement in her hometown of Waterloo, Ia. Bachmann referenced John Wayne, who she said was also from Waterloo.  In reality, John Wayne was from Winterset, Ia.  The similarly named John Wayne Gacy, a serial killer, lived and worked in Waterloo before he was convicted of thirty-three murders and executed in 1994.

Bachmann was singled out by liberal pundits after the Tucson shootings in January 2010 for saying in March 2009 that she wanted people “armed and dangerous.”  Many liberals tried to paint this quote as an example of violent conservative rhetoric.  In reality, when the quote is taken in context, it is clear that Bachmann meant that voters should be armed with information. 

In spite of her weaknesses, Bachmann has a gift for fundraising.  The Atlanta Journal reports that in 2010 her campaign collected more money than any other congressional candidate.  Many of Bachmann’s contributions come in small amounts from a large network of supporters around the country.

At this point, Bachmann ranks seventh in a recent index of polls by Real Clear Politics.  She trails Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Rudy Giuliani, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul.  She leads Rick Perry, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum, and John Huntsman.  In a June 3 Insider Advantage/WSB-TV poll of Georgia voters, Bachmann placed second with thirteen percent.  Herman Cain placed first with twenty-six percent.

Michelle Bachmann is undoubtedly a very intelligent woman.  Her educational background is probably one of the most impressive in Congress and her experience as a tax lawyer would be beneficial in writing the tax reforms that the country desperately needs.  However, Michelle Bachmann is her own worst enemy when it comes to creating embarrassing sound bites.  If she cannot stop making outlandish statements it will be impossible to take her candidacy seriously.   In the age of Youtube, her campaign may already have been damaged beyond repair.