Polling Shows Trump Underwater In Swing States

A new look at state-by-state polling of President Donald Trump’s approval rating in 2018 shows that the president is below 50 percent in the Rust Belt and swing states as well as a number of typically strong Republican states. The polling indicates that Mr. Trump has a difficult road ahead in his quest to win re-election.

The polling from Gallup found that the president’s approval was less than 50 percent in the Rust Belt states that helped him to win the Electoral College in 2016 as well as all of the usual swing states. In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Trump’s disapproval was above the 50 percent mark. Of the Rust Belt states, Trump’s net disapproval was only within 10 percent in Ohio, where his approval and disapproval were even at 48 percent.

In swing states, Trump’s disapproval was 50 percent or greater across the board. In two swing states won by Hillary Clinton, Virginia and Nevada, Trump approval was at 40 percent. In a third, Colorado, it was at 39 percent. In North Carolina and Florida, swing states won by Trump, the president’s approval was at 45 and 43 percent respectively.

No less significant is that Trump’s approval was below 50 percent in several traditional Republican strongholds. In the Southern states of Georgia, Louisiana, and Texas Trump’s approval was also lower than 50 percent. In both Georgia and Texas, the president’s disapproval was above 50 percent.

Trump’s approval was at or above 50 percent in 17 states during 2018. He won 30 states in the 2016 election. MAGA country is contained in two pockets. The first runs from the Southeast to the Midwest while the second is in the Northwest. The polling showed that West Virginia and Wyoming were states where Trump had the highest approval at 62 and 61 percent respectively. The president’s disapproval was highest in Hawaii where only 26 percent approve of his job performance.

While the poll is gloomy for the president across the board, the worst news is from the Rust Belt. The states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin typically lean Democrat in presidential elections but were won by Mr. Trump in 2016. The victories spurred hopes of a Republican resurgence in these northern states that are rich in blue-collar voters. However, the 2018 polling indicates that the Rust Belt is slipping back into the Democratic orbit. If these three states flip in 2020 then President Trump will not be re-elected.

While many Republicans scoff at polls and point to Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016 as evidence that they should be ignored, the polling data is backed up by results from the midterm elections. In 2018, Republican candidates lost seven of eight statewide races in the Rust Belt. These election results confirm the Gallup polling and should set off warning bells for Republican strategists.

In contrast with 2016, the polling also shows a wider gap in Trump’s net disapproval than the gap between Trump and Hillary. The 2016 polling showed the race in most swing states to be closer than three percent, which was within the margin of error of most polls. The 2018 Gallup polling shows that voters disapprove of Trump by double-digit margins in many states, including the crucial three Rust Belt states.

Polls are not predictive. They don’t show how voters will vote next year and much could change in that time. Many factors, such as who the Democrats pick as their standard bearer, will certainly affect the course of the election. Still, the polling, especially when taken together with the midterm election results, serves as a caution to Republicans that support for the president has eroded considerably since he lost the popular vote in 2016.

President Trump and the Republicans should consider taking a more unifying and conciliatory tack to rebuild support among moderate voters in the time left before the election if they hope to retain control of the White House. The president’s focus on issues that split the country, such as the wall and illegal immigration, may be alienating moderate voters even as it solidifies his control over the GOP.

Republicans clearly need to find a different way to appeal to moderate and independent voters if they hope to avoid another disaster in 2020. If the president is incapable of doing so, Republican primary voters should consider finding a new candidate.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Why Midterm Results Are Bad News For Trump's 2020 Hopes

President Trump took a victory lap yesterday to take credit for the Republican gains in the Senate during the midterm elections (as well as taking credit for helping Republican congressmen to survive the blue wave), but one aspect of the midterm results that few have mentioned does not bode well for the president’s re-election hopes. This week’s elections suggest that the Rust Belt states that propelled Trump to an Electoral College victory in 2016 may be once again returning to the Democratic orbit.

In 2016, President Trump swept the upper Midwest states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Ohio, with 18 Electoral votes, is a swing state, and the other four states, which typically vote Democrat in presidential elections, contain 46 Electoral votes. The loss of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin would have changed the outcome of the election.

So how did these Rust Belt states vote in 2018?

Ohio held the best news for President Trump. The good news is that the Buckeye State elected a Republican governor to succeed John Kasich. Mike DeWine won a four-point victory over former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau head Richard Cordray. The bad news is that Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown was re-elected by more than six points.

Pennsylvania re-elected Democrats to both the governor’s mansion and the Senate. Voters rehired both Gov. Tom Wolf and Senator Bob Casey by double-digit margins.

In Michigan, voters also selected Democrats in statewide races. Democrat Gretchen Whitmer won the gubernatorial race by nine points and Senator Debbie Stabenow was re-elected by six points.

In Wisconsin, former Republican presidential candidate Scott Walker lost a heartbreaking re-election campaign by slightly more than one point. Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin fared better, winning her re-election campaign by 11 points.

The Democratic near-sweep of the Rust Belt gubernatorial and Senate races is an indication that Donald Trump may not have permanently expanded the Republican base in those states. At the very least, the president’s coattails did not extend to Republican candidates in the statewide races that are similar to Electoral College races that Trump will need to win in 2020.

Even though the outcome in midterm elections can’t be directly correlated to presidential elections, it’s hard to find evidence in Tuesday night’s results that Donald Trump has expanded, or even maintained, his support in the upper Midwest. After having won the 2016 election despite losing the popular vote, failing to grow his support could spell doom for his re-election campaign.

The situation may change over the next two years and the presidential election will also be affected by such factors as who the Democrats nominate and the outcome of President Trump’s trade war. It is also possible that voters in these states will turn out for Mr. Trump even though they failed to do so for other Republican candidates.

The loss of seven of eight statewide races in a vital region this week doesn’t necessarily mean that Donald Trump will lose his re-election campaign, but it does show that Mr. Trump has a tough race ahead of him. Trump has two years to reverse the trend of his declining Rust Belt support. If he cannot win the three blue Rust Belt states, as well as the other states that he won in 2016, he will probably be a one-term president.

Originally published on The Resurgent