Why Ron Paul can’t win

Ron Paul is a frequent winner of straw polls and has a loyal following among libertarians. In spite of winning these polls, Paul has no chance of winning the Republican nomination. This is not because of a Republican or media (or Bilderberger or Illuminati or any other) conspiracy. The reason lies in Paul’s political beliefs and the nature of the straw polls that he wins.

Paul, a Republican congressman representing a Texas house district, is not a normal Republican. Between terms in Congress as a Republican, he ran for president as a Libertarian Party candidate. Even today, his platform is starkly different than those of other Republicans.

One of the issues where this is most apparent is drug legalization. Ron Paul has supported the decriminalization of narcotics and an end to the drug war. While the American public is almost evenly split on the issue of marijuana legalization according to an October 2011 Gallup poll, only 35 percent of Republicans are in favor. The fact that Paul is out of step with Republican voters hurts him as a candidate in a Republican primary.

While Paul opposes attempts to redefine traditional marriage, he opposes a federal marriage amendment, which is the only way to prevent the courts from imposing same-sex marriage. As with drug legalization, this is an issue on which the American public is divided according to a recent Associated Press poll, but support for traditional marriage is stronger among Republicans and conservatives. When voters have had a chance to vote on definition of marriage laws or amendments, they often pass by a large margin. Georgia voters approved a marriage amendment with 76 percent in favor in 2004.

On other issues Paul is similarly out of step. After U.S. Navy SEALs killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, Paul said in an interview on Iowa’s WHO radio that he would not have ordered the raid. As reported by ABC News, Paul said that the raid was “absolutely not necessary” and did not reflect “respect for the rule of law and world law, international law.” Paul said that he would have favored cooperation with Pakistan to arrest bin Laden.

Paul’s position again conflicted with the beliefs of most Americans. According to a Washington Post/Pew poll, by a margin of 34-8 percent most Americans believed that Pakistan had done more to hurt U.S. efforts to find bin Laden than to help. Seventy-two percent of Americans felt relieved that bin Laden was dead. Bin Laden’s death made 60 percent of Americans feel proud and 58 percent felt happy. These percentages are probably even higher among Republicans.

Even more current and troubling to most Americans is Paul’s position on Iran. CNS News reports that Paul said, “For them [Iran] to be a threat to us or to anybody in the region, I think it’s just blown out of proportion.” Paul opposes sanctions or military action against Iran and says that the U.S. should offer friendship instead, a position closer to that of Barack Obama than his fellow Republicans.

In contrast, a UPI poll released on November 12 shows that 50 percent of Americans support U.S. military action against Iran and 57 percent support an Israeli attack on Iran. According to a CBS/Global Research poll, only 17 percent of Americans do not believe that Iran poses a threat.

As the polls were released, the International Atomic Energy Agency released a report that confirms that the Iranian nuclear program is focused on developing weapons rather than nuclear power for peaceful purposes. Coming on the heels of the FBI’s disruption of an Iranian assassination plot in Washington, D.C. in October, it is likely that many more Americans are coming to see Iran as a dangerous threat that will not respond to anything short of military action.

On the other hand, Paul’s long-time advocacy of government spending cuts is now being supported by a majority of Americans according to Gallup and there are signs that his desire to bring back the gold standard is gaining support as well. A Rasmussen poll from October surprisingly showed that 44 percent of Americans favored the gold standard compared to 28 percent opposed. When the question was phrased to say that the gold standard would reduce the powers of “bankers and the political class,” support increased to 57 percent and opposition dropped to 19 percent.

Rep. Paul’s call to “end the Fed” may be gaining support, but is still a minority position. A Bloomberg poll from December 2010 showed that only 16 percent wanted to abolish the Federal Reserve. That number was twice the eight percent who favored abolishing the Fed in October of that year. Even if most Americans don’t favor shutting down the Federal Reserve, 39 percent did want to make it more accountable and only 37 percent favored the current model with an independent Fed.

Ron Paul’s economic policies are finding favor in the current climate of massive government spending and deficits. On domestic issues and foreign policy, however, he is out of step with most Americans and even more out-of-step with Republicans, whom he must win over to reach the general election. Consequently, he stays below ten percent according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls, even as he wins unscientific straw polls where his supporters turn out in droves. In Georgia polls, Paul remains similarly in the single digits, near his under-three percent finish in Georgia’s 2008 primary election.

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Herman Cain leads presidential pack

Herman Cain is the new frontrunner in the Republican presidential primary according to a new poll by the Wall Street Journal and NBC. The poll, which surveyed 1,000 adults and was refined to 336 Republican primary voters, indicated that Georgia native Herman Cain was the first choice of 27 percent of Republican voters. Cain was followed by Mitt Romney with 23 percent and Rick Perry with 16 percent. At 11 percent, Ron Paul was the only other candidate to score in double digits.

The poll also indicated that Cain generates the most enthusiasm among Republican voters. Forty-five percent of Republican voters said that they would vote for Cain with enthusiasm. Thirty-nine percent would enthusiastically vote for Romney and 35 percent for Rick Perry. Conversely, only 27 percent had some reservations about Cain, while 40 percent had reservations about Romney and 39 percent had reservations about Perry.

Among all voters, 74 percent said that they country was on the wrong track and 57 percent disapprove of President Obama’s handling of the economy (39 percent approve). The president’s total approval rating was 44 percent with 51 percent disapproval.

Republican candidates still have work to do to unseat Mr. Obama, however. Mitt Romney was the Republican candidate who came closest to beating the president. Romney was favored by 44 percent to President Obama’s 46 percent in a head-to-head matchup. Rick Perry scored 39 percent to Obama’s 51 percent. Herman Cain matched Rick Perry with 38 percent to President Obama’s 49 percent.

The poll reflects Cain’s stellar performance in Tuesday night’s debate and the media attention from his 9-9-9 plan for tax reform. The former WSB AM-750 talk radio host has also released a new autobiography, “My Journey to the White House.” Cain, who emceed the Douglas County, Ga. Tea Party in 2010 seems to be winning over Republican voters, but still has a long way to go to convince most Americans that he can solve the country’s economic problems.

The poll also reflects Rick Perry’s fall from prominence after several lackluster debate performances, as well as continuing doubts about Mitt Romney. Perry leapt to frontrunner status quickly after entering the race, but seems to have disappointed many potential voters. Romney, whose Mormon religion has caused controversy of late, is viewed with some suspicion because of his role in Massachusetts’ health care reform, as well as his late conversion to the pro-life movement.

The Republican primary race has been very fluid with many different candidates generating enthusiasm at various times. It remains to be seen whether Cain will be able to hold the lead until the voting starts. His newfound frontrunner status will generate increased scrutiny of his economic proposals and record as a businessman and Federal Reserve member. He will likely also face increased attacks from the other Republican candidates as well as Democrats and liberal pundits. Indeed, some on left have already accused Cain of being a racist and a bigot.

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Herman Cain unveils economic plan

In an article in the Wall Street Journal, Georgia native Herman Cain unveiled the specifics of his economic plan for the first time today. Cain’s plan, called the “9-9-9 plan,” appeared on the editorial page of the September 15 Journal.

The core of Cain’s plan is a tax reform proposal that would replace current personal and corporate taxes with flat taxes at a 9 percent rate. Businesses would deduct business-to-business purchases and capital investment and then pay a nine percent flat tax on the remainder of their income. Individuals would deduct charitable deductions and pay a 9 percent tax on their remaining income. Capital gains would be excluded from taxation.

The third “9” would be a 9 percent national sales tax. This federal sales tax would be levied only on the sale of new goods. In a nod to the Fair Tax, Cain’s plan excludes used items from taxation. Cain would also eliminate the taxes on profits from international operations that are returned to the U.S., the payroll tax and the estate tax.

Cain believes that his tax reform plan would make U.S. businesses more competitive and help the economy begin to grow again. According to Cain, the tax reforms would be revenue neutral when they are implemented, but revenues would increase as the economy grows.

Cain also notes that he would repeal three laws that have caused severe damage to the economy. He calls the repeal of Obamacare, the Dodd-Frank financial reform, and Sarbanes-Oxley “critical steps” toward an economic recovery.

Cain’s plan also calls for taking steps to stabilize the dollar’s value, reducing spending and paying down the federal debt. He also favors free enterprise (empowerment) zones as a way to encourage investment in urban areas. In another recent WSJ editorial, economist Arthur Laffer describes free enterprise zones as areas where the government would suspend minimum wage laws, suspend or lower tax rates, and offer expedited approval of burdensome regulations.

Herman Cain is one of two Georgians competing for the Republican presidential nomination for 2012. He is a former business executive and radio talk show host on Atlanta’s WSB AM-750. A Tea Party favorite, Cain polled well initially, but has slipped over recent months. In the most recent Real Clear Politics average of polls, Cain claimed less than 5 percent of the vote. He trailed Perry, Romney, Palin, Paul, Bachmann and was in a statistical tie with the other Georgia candidate, Newt Gingrich.

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Meet the candidates: Rick Perry

As the presidential race heats up, a popular governor of Texas may be poised to sweep the head of the pack of forgettable Republican candidates. This is not a flashback to the 2000 presidential primaries that ended in the nomination of George W. Bush, but a possible outcome of the 2012 primary should current Texas governor Rick Perry decide to enter the race as appears increasingly likely.

Perry is a native Texan and a graduate of Texas A&M. After college, he joined the Air Force and served as a pilot of C-130 Hercules transports. After leaving the Air Force, Perry returned to Texas where he joined the family business as a cotton farmer.

Perry’s political career began as a Democrat in the Texas House of Representatives in 1984. Even as a Democrat, Perry was fiscally conservative. In the Texas house, he was a member of the “Pit Bulls,” a group of appropriations committee members who fought spending increases.

In 1988, Perry was the Texas chairman for Al Gore’s presidential campaign. The next year he changed his party affiliation to Republican saying, “I came to my senses” according to Politifact.com. Immediately after becoming a Republican, Perry was elected Agriculture Commissioner, an office that he held for two terms. In 1998, he became the first Texas Republican lieutenant governor since Reconstruction. In 2000, he became governor when George W. Bush resigned to become president of the United States. Since then, he has won re-election twice.

Gov. Perry presides over one of the few bright spots in the current economy. CNN Money notes that Texas, with no state income tax, has one of the lowest combined state and local tax burdens of any state at 8.4% placing it forty-third out of the fifty states. Georgia’s combined tax burden is 9.9% for a rank of thirteen. The Tax Foundation ranks Texas as one of the most business-friendly states at thirteen. Georgia ranks twenty-fifth.

Low taxes and regulation have paid off. According to the Federal Reserve and the Wall St. Journal, Texas accounts for forty-five percent of American job creation. Since the beginning of the recovery, Texas has produced thirty-seven percent of net U.S. jobs. USA Today points out that the Texas economy has grown twenty-six percent over the past decade, one of the largest increases of any state economy in the past fifty years. The Texas economy is now second only to California, which is may be entering a period of decline.

What makes Texas’ growth all the more interesting is that in 2009 Perry rejected his state’s share of the federal stimulus money. USA Today reported that Perry rejected the $555 million because of conditions that the federal government placed upon the use of the money, such as an expansion of unemployment insurance. During his tenure as governor, Perry has supported limitations on abortion, reform of medical malpractice laws, and the Trans-Texas Corridor, a large infrastructure project that would have expanded Texas roads, rail and data lines. The plan for the corridor was shelved in 2009 amid public opposition. He has vetoed more bills than any other Texas governor.

Perry has raised eyebrows several times during his career. In 2009, he made comments that were construed to be an endorsement of secession after a Tea Party event. At the event some attendees shouted, “Secede!” Afterward, Perry was quoted by the Austin Statesman as saying, “We've got a great union. There's absolutely no reason to dissolve it. But if Washington continues to thumb their nose at the American people, you know, who knows what might come out of that? But Texas is a very unique place, and we're a pretty independent lot to boot."

The Atlanta Journal political blog has a video of Perry’s speech at the rally, which does not mention secession, and notes that it sounds as if only one or two people shout the word “secede” and then only one time. The blog notes that others laughed and that it seemed that the shout was a joke. In any case, Perry’s comments are hardly a call for Texas to leave the Union.

Perry has also faced criticism for several executions carried out by the State of Texas. This year, Humberto Leal Garcia was executed for the rape and murder of a sixteen-year-old girl. The execution was criticized by the Obama Administration and the International Court of Justice because Garcia was not informed of the right to contact the Mexican consulate at the time of his arrest. Perry received criticism for failing to stop the execution, but the U.S. Supreme Court also ruled against Garcia.

In another case, that of Cameron Todd Willingham in 2004, convicted of the arson murder of his three children, critics accuse Perry of removing three members of the Texas Forensic Science Commission shortly before the commission was to hear a fire expert’s examination of evidence in the fire. Three reports, including the report commissioned by the state, concluded that the evidence did not point to arson.

Perry denied pressuring the investigators and said that the replacements were made because the commissioners’ terms were expiring. He told CNN, “If you've got a whole new investigation going forward, it makes a lot more sense to put the new people in now and let them start the full process, rather than bring people in there for a short period of time and then replace them. I think it makes a whole lot more sense to make a change now than to make a change later."

He also told the Houston Chronicle, “Willingham was a monster. He was a guy who murdered his three children, who tried to beat his wife into an abortion so that he wouldn't have those kids. Person after person has stood up and testified to facts of this case that quite frankly you all aren't covering.”

More recently, Perry has made headlines for his sponsorship of “the Response,” a day of prayer at Reliant Stadium in Houston. The event, which drew some 30,000 attendees as well as Gov. Sam Brownback of Kansas and video message by Gov. Rick Scott of Florida, was billed as a call to repentance for the United States.

The event, which drew criticism from separation of church and state activists and a lawsuit from atheists, was open to people of all faiths, although the attendees were predominantly Christian. The gathering was also not a political rally. According to the N.Y. Times, Perry even offered a prayer for President Obama: “Father, we pray for our president, that you impart your wisdom upon him, that you would guard his family.”

Perry also made headlines in April 2011 when he issued a proclamation asking Texans to pray for rain. Georgia Governor Sonny Perdue hosted a prayer service in 2007 when Georgia was in the clutches of a similar drought. In 2008, Georgia suffered the worst floods in decades. To date, Texas is still wracked by the drought.

Even though Gov. Perry is not a declared candidate yet, there are reports that he is laying the groundwork for his campaign. Peach Pundit reported in June that he had hired Elizabeth Vaughan as a manager of his Georgia campaign. Vaughan was manager of Gary Black’s successful campaign for Georgia Agriculture Secretary and former member of Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign staff. This report was denied by Vaughan.

Nevertheless, Perry did meet with Georgia Republicans in July according to Politico. According to the report, which did not name the attendees, Perry took part in an “extensive question-and-answer session” in which he talked about the economy and his record of job creation in Texas. Reportedly, Perry won over several of the Georgians who were previously undecided.

Even though he has not yet entered the race, Perry is running a close second to Mitt Romney in the most recent Real Clear Politics average of polls. The most recent Public Policy poll of Georgians’ preferences for a Republican candidate was in April and did not include Perry.

Rick Perry’s economic record in Texas makes him a strong contender if he decides to run for president. He has strong conservative credentials that will please the Tea Party, but the idea of another conservative Republican Texas governor will turn off some voters. Fortunately for Perry, most of those voters probably would probably vote for President Obama regardless of who the Republican candidate is. Perry does run the risk of missing the window of opportunity if he waits too long to enter the race, so look for an announcement of his decision soon.

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Meet the candidates: Newt Gingrich

Newt Gingrich (Gage Skidmore)

Newt Gingrich is a transplanted Georgian who was born and grew up in Pennsylvania.  Born in 1943, his birth name was Newton Leroy McPherson.  His mother and father divorced after a marriage of only a few days.  Newt’s mother remarried to a career army officer, Robert Gingrich, in 1946.  Gingrich adopted Newt and the couple had three daughters.

The family moved frequently as the senior Gingrich received new assignments.  Newt graduated from high school in Columbus, Ga. in 1961.  He graduated from Emory University with a B.A. in history in 1965.  He earned a Master’s and Ph.D. in modern European history from Tulane, graduating in 1971.  After earning his doctorate, Gingrich returned to Georgia, where he taught at West Georgia College in Carrollton from 1970 to 1978. 

Gingrich’s political career began with campaigns for congress in Georgia’s sixth district in 1974 and 1976.  He narrowly lost those races to Democrat Jack Flynt, but won in 1978 when Flynt decided not to seek re-election.  Gingrich served in the House of Representatives until 1998.  He was elected Minority Whip in 1989 to succeed Dick Cheney, who resigned to become Secretary of Defense.  In 1994, in the wake of the Republican landslide, Gingrich was elected Speaker of the House when Minority Leader Bob Michel (R-Il.) did not seek re-election to congress.

Gingrich was largely responsible for the Contract with America that led to the 1994 Republican landslide.  During his tenure as speaker, Gingrich oversaw the passage of welfare reform, tax cuts (including the largest capital gains tax cut in U.S. history), and pushed for a balanced budget under President Clinton.  The budget was balanced in 1999 for the first time since 1969.  Gingrich’s reform agenda is a major reason for the economic boom of the 1990s.

Gingrich was also involved in the government shutdowns of 1995 and 1996.  In a situation similar to the one faced today, the Republicans refused to raise the debt limit when Democrats balked at budget cuts.  Ultimately, the shutdowns resulted in the deal to balance the budget, but Gingrich suffered politically from comments that made it seem that he shut down the government in response to a snub from President Clinton.  After Republicans lost the presidential election and eight house seats in 1996, Gingrich resigned from Congress. 

Since leaving Congress, he has served on the Defense Policy Board for President George W. Bush and the United States Commission on National Security/21^st Century.  He also teaches the Joint Warfighting Course to Major Generals at the Air University and is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar and Professor at the National Defense University.  In 2003, he founded the Center for Health Transformation to create free market health care reforms.  In 2007, he founded American Solutions, a conservative think-tank and action group.  Gingrich has also written a number of books on topics ranging from history to government policy to fictional alternate history.  After leaving Congress, he moved from Georgia to McLean, Va. where he currently resides.

There are several skeletons in Newt Gingrich’s closet.  In 1992, Gingrich was one of more than 450 congressmen who bounced checks written on the house bank.  The house bank covered the overdrafts, but many congressmen had thousands of dollars that were overdue for months.  Gingrich was not singled out by the Ethics Committee and was one of the Republican congressmen who decided to go public with the scandal, realizing that more Democrats would be affected than Republicans.

While he was in Congress, Gingrich also taught a course at Kennesaw State College in Kennesaw, Ga., an Atlanta suburb.  The course, titled “Renewing American Civilization,” led to an ethics charge and an investigation by the IRS.  The House Ethics Committee found no wrongdoing, but Gingrich did pay a fine for conflicting statements filed by his attorneys.  The Kennesaw State Foundation’s tax-exempt status was threatened after accepting $200,000 to televise Gingrich’s course across the country.  The foundation was exonerated after Gingrich resigned.

In 2008, Gingrich teamed up with Nancy Pelosi, another now former house speaker, to make a commercial advocating green energy to halt climate change.  In the past three years, Gingrich seems to have retreated somewhat on the issue.  A video on the New Hampshire Primary blog shows Gingrich saying “a topic large enough to change the behavior of the entire human race is a topic that is more than science and deserves public hearings with very tough minded public questions and we’ve had almost none of that on either side.”

Newt’s personal life may also be a problem for many prospective voters.  He married for the first time at nineteen to his former geometry teacher who was twenty-six at the time.  Six months after the 1980 divorce, Gingrich remarried.  Gingrich admitted to having an affair with Callista Bisek, a house staffer, during his second marriage.  He divorced for the second time in 2000 and married Bisek shortly after. 

In a 2011 interview with the Christian Broadcasting Network, Gingrich admitted that his actions were wrong:  “There’s no question at times of my life, partially driven by how passionately I felt about this country, that I worked far too hard and things happened in my life that were not appropriate. And what I can tell you is that when I did things that were wrong, I wasn’t trapped in situation ethics, I was doing things that were wrong, and yet, I was doing them. I found that I felt compelled to seek God’s forgiveness. Not God’s understanding, but God’s forgiveness.”

Gingrich has also run into two problems since announcing his candidacy this year.  In the first, he angered conservatives when he referred to Paul Ryan’s Medicare plan as “right-wing social engineering.”  Gingrich apologized to Ryan and tried to repair the damage, but his comments probably did not endear him to Tea Partiers or deficit hawks.

Secondly, in early June, Gingrich’s entire senior campaign staff resigned.  The resignations came in the wake of Gingrich’s two-week cruise in the Greek isles.  The staff members reportedly were concerned that Gingrich did not take the campaign seriously.  The departure of his staff will likely affect Gingrich’s ability to raise campaign funds, since many potential donors will seriously question his ability to win if he isn’t supported by his own employees.

The most recent Real Clear Politics index of polls shows Gingrich in statistical tie for fifth place with Ron Paul.  He currently trails Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Rudolf Giuliani, and fellow Georgian Herman Cain.  Most of the current polls do not reflect the public reaction to the resignation of Gingrich’s staff.  An Insider Advantage/WSB-TV poll of Georgia voters in early June showed Gingrich in third place behind Herman Cain and Michelle Bachmann.

Very few doubt Newt Gingrich’s intelligence and ability to make policy, but if he is to survive the primary season he has major obstacles to overcome, not the least of which is to replace his entire staff in the middle of the campaign.  Gingrich’s missteps and gaffes make it unlikely that he will win the contest to face Barack Obama in 2012, but he would be a valuable advisor and strategist to the eventual Republican nominee.

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Meet the candidates: Mitt Romney

Romney (Jessica Rinaldi/Wikimedia Commons)

Voters who followed the 2008 presidential election will probably be familiar with Mitt Romney.  Romney is a conservative businessman who ran a three-way race with Mike Huckabee and John McCain for the Republican nomination before finally being defeated by John McCain.  Many voters probably remember Romney best for the controversy over his Mormon religion.

Willard Mitt Romney was born in Detroit on March 12, 1947.  His father was a CEO of American Motors and a three-term governor of Michigan.  His father ran unsuccessfully against Richard Nixon for the GOP nomination for president in 1968.  Mitt graduated from an elite private school and then attended Stanford University in the midst of the turbulent ‘60s.  At Stanford he was known as a clean cut student and at one point was part of a counter-protest to a sit-in against the draft.  After a year at Stanford, he became a Mormon missionary to France for two and a half years.

When Romney returned to the U.S., he enrolled in Brigham Young and married Anne Davis, who he had begun dating before he moved to France.  He graduated from Brigham Young with a B.A. in English in 1971.  He also earned a joint Juris Doctor/MBA from Harvard in 1975.  While in college and the mission field, Romney received deferments from the draft.  When he graduated, he was not drafted due to a high number.

Romney’s first job was with Boston Consulting Group as a management consultant.  He later became a highly successful management consultant for Bain and Company.  Romney became Bain’s vice president in 1978.  In 1983, Romney headed up Bain Capital, a new venture capital firm.  Bain Capital later focused on buyouts of other companies, which would then be rehabilitated using Bain’s management consulting methods.  Romney earned a reputation for being frugal, cautious and moral.  He once opted out of a deal involving a movie studio because they produced R-rated films.  In 1990, he returned to Bain and Company, the consulting firm, to save the company from bankruptcy.  He drew a salary of one dollar while restructuring the company over the next year. 

In 1994, Romney challenged the re-election of Democratic Senator Ted Kennedy.  Romney won the Republican nomination in a landslide, but lost to Kennedy by 58-41 percent.  This was partly due to Kennedy’s ads that questioned Romney’s flip-flops on issues and treatment of workers at companies that Bain owned. 

Romney is well known for managing the 2002 Olympic Games in Salt Lake City.  When he took the helm of the organizing committee, there was a $379 million deficit.  Under Romney, the games turned a profit and were widely considered to be one of the most successful Olympics in U.S. history.

In 2002, Romney was elected governor of Massachusetts.  Romney cut spending, closed tax loopholes and increased fees to turn a billion dollar deficit into surplus.  He is most remembered, however, for presiding over the enactment of Massachusetts’ universal health care law, known informally as “Romneycare.”  The law is very similar to the Affordable Care Act, “Obamacare,” and contains an individual mandate to buy health insurance and fines for those who do not. 

In 2008, Romney competed in the Republican presidential primaries.  After he failed to win the nomination, he endorsed fellow Republican John McCain and vigorously campaigned for him.  In Georgia, Romney finished third with six percent of the vote.  Mike Huckabee finished first with 34 percent followed by John McCain with 32 percent.  After the election, he founded the Free and Strong America PAC to raise money for Republican candidates.  Romney has also written two books.

One of the largest drawbacks for Romney in the 2012 campaign will undoubtedly be his connection with an Obama-like health care reform law.  The Wall St. Journal reports that already Massachusetts is increasing fines and taxes in a desperate attempt to keep the program solvent as its costs skyrocket.  According to the article, current governor Deval Patrick is considering spending caps as well as excluding coverage for certain services. NPR notes that the large increase in people with health insurance in Massachusetts has led to a doctor shortage where many doctors are not accepting new patients.  Five years after the reform law passed, Massachusetts is still the second most expensive state for health care (just behind Maine) according to the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Council.  An April 2011 poll shows that 49 percent of respondents don’t believe that Romney’s reform is working.

Romney recently attempted to defend his Massachusetts law in a major speech and an op-ed letter to the Wall St. Journal while at the same time attacking President Obama’s version.  An important distinction is that the individual mandate is widely believed to be unconstitutional under the commerce clause of the federal Constitution.  Many state constitutions may permit such a mandate.  Voters, however, may not like such an expansion of government power even if it is legal.  The bottom line is that the reform is not working. His record on health care reform is the biggest problem for Romney to overcome. 

Many voters might also be leery of Romney’s record of flip-flops.  In particular, Romney is known for having reversed his position on abortion.  As a candidate for governor in 2002, Romney said in a televised debate that he would “preserve and protect a woman’s right to choose [abortion].”  By 2007, prior to his presidential campaign, Romney claimed that he had come to see abortion as immoral.  A sister of Romney’s brother-in-law died in an illegal abortion in the 1960s.  Charges of past flip-flops make it difficult for Romney to distance himself from his health care reform record without looking uncertain of himself.

Another Romney scandal is his involvement with Damon Corp., a company that plead guilty to defrauding the government.  Romney sat on the board of directors while the fraud was taking place, but none of the directors have ever been implicated.  Romney claimed to have asked Bain’s lawyers to investigate the illegal activity and helped to correct it, but court records indicate that the fraud continued until after Bain sold Damon according to Deseret News.

More recently, in February 2010, Romney was involved in an air-rage incident with Sky Blu, a rapper with LMFAO.  The two were on a flight from Vancouver to Los Angeles when Romney asked Sky Blu to raise his seat back and a fight resulted.  Sky Blu claimed in a video that Romney grabbed his shoulder and he then tried to punch Romney in self-defense.  The plane returned to Vancouver where Sky Blu was arrested and removed.     

Mitt Romney is currently the frontrunner among the GOP candidates.  A recent Gallup poll (after the departures of Huckabee and Trump) puts him at seventeen percent, two points ahead of Sarah Palin.  If Palin does not run, Romney would move up to nineteen percent.  This would give him a comfortable seven point lead over Newt Gingrich, his nearest rival.  Of course, Romney has been disappointed before.  He was widely considered to be the likely GOP candidate in 2008, only to be confounded by McCain and Huckabee.  

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