Advice for Republican candidates: ‘It’s the economy and Obamacare, stupid.’

As this year’s midterm primary and general elections approach, analysts in many quarters are preparing for a sweeping Republican victory that may fundamentally change the balance of power in Washington, D.C. The collapse of Obamacare at the starting line, a faltering economy and deteriorating conditions around the world from Syria to the Ukraine make a Democratic implosion seem all but assured. In fact, to paraphrase cartoonist Walt Kelly, the greatest threat to a Republican victory may be the Republican candidates themselves.

2012 was proof that, even if voters are dissatisfied with Democrats, they still need a reason to vote for Republicans. Merely being opposed to Obamacare and higher taxes will not be enough in many cases. Voters are not flocking to the GOP even though approval of Obama and the Democrats is falling. In 2012, several flawed Republican candidates who did not connect with voters – or worse, alienated them – preserved Democratic control of the Senate for at least two more long years.

As Arthur Brooks pointed out in the Wall Street Journal last year, conservatives must make their policies personal to voters instead of railing against abstract ideas and things. By connecting with voters on a personal level and explaining how conservative ideas can help the poor, Brooks says, “Conservative leaders will be able to stand before Americans who are struggling and feel marginalized and say, ‘We will fight for you and your family, whether you vote for us or not’—and truly mean it.”

As Brooks puts it, conservatives often find themselves fighting against things instead of saying what they can do for people. This doesn’t mean compiling a list of giveaway programs like the Democrats. It also doesn’t mean compromising principles. What it does mean is presenting a positive vision of how conservative free market policies can help people make their lives better.

A telling statistic from the 2012 presidential election was that, according to CNN exit polls, a majority of voters said that Mitt Romney shared their values (55 percent), was a strong leader (61 percent) and had a vision for the future (54 percent). However, by a margin of 81 to 18 percent, a strong majority thought that Barack Obama cared more about people. Romney simply did not credibly show his concern for ordinary Americans and paid the price on Election Day.

To present a positive vision about their beliefs, conservative candidates must necessarily spend less time fighting against things, i.e. talking about negative policies. Most voters don’t care as much these abstract ideas as conservatives do. A few topics that are almost guaranteed to make undecided voters lose interest – or worse, become hostile to Republican candidates – are the Seventeenth Amendment, Obama’s birth certificate, and the NDAA. There are also other important issues that simply don’t connect with voters. Fast and Furious, Benghazi, and border security are examples of these.

If undecided voters don’t care about these issues, what do they care about? A Rasmussen poll from January 2014 showed that the most important issue was the economy (76 percent of 1,000 likely voters). Not far behind were job creation (68 percent) and health care (66 percent). Government spending and education (both at 63 percent) rounded out the top five. Four of the top five issues were Republican issues. Health care, which has long been a Democratic issue, has now been ceded to the GOP because of the Affordable Care Act’s disastrous implementation.

If conservative candidates know what voters are concerned about and have policies to address those issues, the obvious strategy should be to spend time talking about how Republicans can fix the economy, foster job creation, and repair the damage to the health insurance industry caused by Obamacare. It is much easier to connect with voters by addressing their concerns than by trying to tell them what they should be concerned about.

Republican candidates should concentrate on these three key issues and hammer home the point that President Obama has had five years to fix these problems, but has only succeeded in making them worse. Candidates should stay on this message.

To make Obama’s failures personal, candidates should find people who have been hurt by his policies in their districts. This would include people like Edie Sundby, a stage 4 cancer patient from California who is losing her insurance due to Obamacare and is being forced into an inferior policy that does not cover all of her doctors. There are others all over the country that have lost their insurance or seen rates skyrocket under Obamacare.

Candidates should find local people who have dropped out of the work force because they cannot find jobs. These unemployed workers should help point out that the labor participation rate has fallen throughout Obama’s presidency and now stands at the lowest point in 35 years according to CNS News. The percentage of working Americans is now lower than at any time since 1978.

This strategy is not dishonest, mean spirited or an abandonment of conservative principles. It is an attempt to focus conservative candidates on the issues that voters care about. Focusing on what voters care about is not being unprincipled. It is focusing the candidate’s message on those conservative principles that address the primary concerns of voters. Focusing the message on certain principles does not mean abandoning the rest.

If conservative candidates are to act on their principles rather than just talk about them, they must win over voters and give them a reason to vote Republican. Fighting for the American people rather than against things will provide that reason for many voters. As Arthur Brooks said, “In the end that approach will win. But more important, it is the right thing to do.”

 

Originally published on Atlanta Conservative Examiner

A path forward for Republicans

As the government shutdown goes through its third week, poll after poll indicates that Republicans are taking the brunt of the blame. As Examiner noted last week, an NBC News/Wall St. Journal poll found approval of the Republican Party at a historic low. Generic congressional polls (summarized on Real Clear Politics), which have been in a dead heat all year, have turned against Republicans since the shutdown. Recent polling shows a consistent advantage for Democratic candidates.

Through it all, Republicans have made no headway in defunding the Affordable Care Act. In fact, the negotiations to reopen the government have shifted toward a new Democratic demand to undo the sequester cuts from last January. The sequester represented a rare GOP victory during the Obama era. It also worked. As Stephen Moore pointed out in the Wall St. Journal, the sequester law actually reduced spending and cut the deficit by about half. Removing the sequester’s spending limits would represent a major defeat for Republicans.

The government shutdown also tarnishes the Republican reputation for fiscal responsibility, an area where Republicans polled well before the shutdown. The shutdown is costing an estimated $160 million per day on the conservative side. Higher estimates rise to more than $1 billion per day in lost growth and other factors. To add insult to injury, the House voted last week to give furloughed federal workers their back pay, which means that federal workers will be paid for doing nothing if the Senate passes the bill.

Defunding Obamacare, which, as noted in Examiner last month, would require the votes of a minimum of five Democrats in the Senate (overturning President Obama’s certain veto would require the votes of 54 Democrats in the House and 21 in the Senate), is beyond the reach of the GOP and the party is taking heavy damage from its stand. Since the original goal of defunding Obamacare is clearly unattainable, where should Republicans go from here?

The Republicans should look to the Hippocratic Oath for guidance: “First, do no harm.” The government shutdown must be ended to avoid irreparable harm to the Republican Party, but, by the same token, the Republicans cannot accept a deal that ends the sequester while offering nothing in return. A return to the status quo would be acceptable, if humiliating. Writing in the Guardian, Grover Norquist proposed a deal in which the sequester is lifted temporarily in exchange for entitlement reform. Republicans should get what they concessions they can, but they must end the shutdown before it leads to a default.

After the government is reopened, Republicans need to make some strategic changes. Railing against Obamacare and just saying no don’t work. If they did, Mitt Romney would be in the White House.

First and most important, the Republicans need to start listening to the American people. The American people oppose Obamacare, but they opposed a government shutdown by even larger margins. As Examiner reported in September, 54 percent opposed Obamacare, but 71 percent opposed the shutdown. Republicans have traditionally criticized the Democrats for their attitude that “we know what’s best for you,” but the GOP has fallen into the same trap and is paying the price for it.

Second, Republicans need to change the focus of their argument. Arthur Brooks points out that Republicans cede the moral argument to Democrats and focus on materialistic concerns such as debt or abstractions such as free markets and capitalism. To the contrary, the left uses emotional arguments, caring for the poor, to advance policy agendas that actually hurt the poor. Brooks’ concern is borne out by CNN exit polls that show a staggering 81 percent of the voters who thought caring about people was a candidate’s most important quality voted for Barack Obama.

In Brooks’ view, the answer is to focus on how conservative policies help people. This does not require changing conservative principles; instead it means reframing arguments to say, “We will fight for you and your family” rather than fighting against things, such as Obamacare.

When the government shutdown is ended, Republicans will be able to return the focus to why Obamacare is bad for the American people. This should be an easy task given Obamacare’s disastrous debut. The much-vaunted health care exchanges are plagued with glitches that make it difficult for consumers to log on and purchase insurance. Consumers who are actually able to navigate the exchanges often find that their insurance premiums have gone up due to the new law. As the Chicago Tribune notes, deductibles, the share of medical bills that the consumer must pay before insurance kicks in, are also increasing. This means that not only are Americans paying more up front for health insurance, they are paying more when they go to the doctor as well.

The Republicans should be talking about how these premium increases affect families across the country who are still reeling from the Great Recession and its lackluster recovery. They should be standing with Americans like Adam Weldzius, the 33-year-old single father in the Chicago Tribune article who has to choose between an insurance premium that doubles or a deductible that triples.

Finally, Republicans must go beyond saying “no” and communicate a positive vision for the future. It isn’t enough to want to repeal Obamacare, for example. Rising health care costs will still be an issue if and when the Affordable Care Act goes away. Karl Rove presented some ideas for conservative health care reform in August and Examiner covered the topic last year, but these have been the exceptions. For the most part, the Republican message on health care has been negative.

Finally, Republicans need to remember who the real adversary is and focus their attention on President Obama and the Democrats rather than bashing each other. To defeat the Democrats and repeal Obamacare, the Republicans must unite and find a common voice. Interparty bickering and squabbles drown out any positive message that the Republicans try to convey to voters.

As President Reagan was fond of saying, “The person who agrees with you 80 percent of the time is a friend and an ally — not a 20 percent traitor.” Nevertheless, Republicans like John McCain, Lindsey Graham, and John Cornyn have had their reputations trashed and been the victims of vicious personal attacks. Yet, when their records are examined, the American Conservative Union gives them lifetime ratings of 82 percent, 89 percent, and 93 percent respectively. All three have consistently voted against Obamacare.

The shortsightedness of the Republican Party threatens not only the possibility of GOP control of the Senate after the 2014 elections, but continued control of the House as well. A few simple midcourse corrections might persuade Americans that the Republican Party is a viable alternative to the Democratic habit of taking money from Americans to fund programs that harm them.

 

Originally published as Atlanta Conservative Examiner