When I was writing aboutLindsey Graham earlier this week, I noticed that the South Carolina senator was actually running behind Donald Trump in the Palmetto State. This was somewhat surprising since Mr. Trumpunderperformed most Republican candidates in 2016and it made me wonder how the president stacks up against other Republican incumbents.
This year, Republicans will be defending a total of 23 Senate seats. Here is how the current RealClearPolitics polling averages (or FiveThirtyEight when no RCP average is available) compare for each Senate race and the presidential election, along with each Senate race’s current rating from Cook Political Report:
Alaska – Likely R (no polls since July) Sullivan (R) leads by five points Trump (R) leads by three points
Arizona Lean D McSally trails by five Trump trails by three
Arkansas Solid R (No Senate polls and no presidential polls since June) Trump leads by two
Colorado Lean D Gardner trails by eight Trump trails by 10
Georgia Toss up Perdue leads by three Georgia special election Lean R Loeffler leads by three Trump leads by one
Idaho Solid R Risch leads by 26 Trump leads by 25
Iowa Toss up Ernst trails by three Trump is tied with Biden
Kansas Lean R (open seat) Marshall leads by three Trump leads by nine
Kentucky Likely R McConnell leads by eight Trump leads by 18
Louisiana Solid R No Senate polls Trump leads by 11
Maine Toss up Collins trails by seven Trump trails by 15
Mississippi Solid R Hyde-Smith leads by 10 Trump leads by 12
Montana Toss up Daines leads by two Trump leads by nine
Nebraska Solid R No Senate polls Trump trails by seven (this was a shocker)
North Carolina Toss up Tillis trails by six Trump trails by less than one point
Oklahoma Solid R Inhofe leads by 20 Trump leads by 24
South Carolina Lean R Graham is tied Trump leads by eight
South Dakota Solid R No polls
Tennessee Solid R (open seat) No Senate polls Trump leads by 13
Texas Likely R Cornyn leads by eight Trump leads by four
West Virginia Solid R No recent polls
Wyoming Solid R (open seat) Barasso leads by 29 No presidential polls
Of the polls where we have decent data on both races, the Republican candidate polled better than the president in seven cases. This does not include Idaho where James Risch fared only one point better than President Trump, a statistical tie. That leaves nine states where Donald Trump is running ahead of the Republican Senate incumbents.
It is also worth noting that Republican incumbents trail in five states, not counting South Carolina. Democrats need to gain a net of four seats to gain control of the Senate (three if Kamala Harris becomes president of the Senate) and Doug Jones’s seat in Alabama appears to be the only likely Democratic loss.
It is difficult to draw firm conclusions in the midst of the campaign but the polling currently shows a stark change in the nature of the Republican Party since November 2016. That year, Trump outperformed Republican senatorial candidates in only three of 12 races.
The data so far for 2020 is incomplete but shows that Donald Trump is far more accepted among red-state Republicans now than in 2020. This is true despite the fact that Joe Biden is a much more popular candidate than Hillary Clinton. With no polling in so many deep-red states, it will be interesting to watch the margins of the elections to see whether Trump maintains his edge over Senate Republicans.
Despite Mr. Trump’s unpopularity in the country at large, it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that Trump remains popular in red states. What is surprising is the extent to which Trump has become more popular than traditional Republicans. That truth underscores the fact that, even if Mr. Trump is shown the door by voters, his influence will be felt in the GOP for years to come.
It is now less than two months from the election and early voting will start in many states in a matter of weeks. Many of my Resurgent colleagues have given their opinions on why Donald Trump should be re-elected despite what they acknowledge to be his numerous faults. I respectfully disagree with this view and would like to take this opportunity to explain why I believe that it is vitally important for the future of the United States that Donald Trump not be returned to the White House. The opinions I am expressing here do not reflect the opinions of everyone (and possibly anyone) else at The Resurgent.
Let me say from the start that, even though I was not a Trump supporter in 2016, I tried to be objective and give him the benefit of the doubt after his election. However, being objective did not mean that I was willing to change my core principles and beliefs as so many in the Republican Party did. The fact that I chose to leave the GOP in 2016 and become an independent may have helped me resist the pressure to adopt the new partisan positions that Trump laid out.
And make no mistake: Trump’s positions, whatever they may be on any given day, have replaced the core principles of the Republican Party. If you don’t believe it, just read what passes for the 2020 Republican platform. The document, which is officially titled, “Resolution Regarding the Republican Party Platform,” states, “The RNC has unanimously voted to forego the Convention Committee on Platform” this year in what may be the party’s only voluntary concession to social distancing. Instead, the party’s non-platform states that the platform committee “would have undoubtedly unanimously agreed to reassert the Party’s strong support for President Donald Trump and his Administration” and resolves
“That the Republican Party has and will continue to enthusiastically support the President’s America-first agenda.”
In other words, Donald Trump and the Republican Party are one and the same. Just as Democrats find little to no room for pro-lifers, Republicans have no room for Trump critics.
And President Trump has done much to be critical of. Any exhaustive list of the president’s problems would exceed the space available here so I’ll try to keep it brief and hit only the high points. Suffice it to say that Mr. Trump’s tenure in office has been a tale of widespread corruption, incompetence (including incompetent corruption), divisiveness, and abuses of power. It is the abuses of power and corruption that I believe are what make Donald Trump so dangerous to the foundations of the American Republic.
These abuses of presidential power were defended by the President Trump on the grounds that Article II of the Constitution gives the president “the right to do whatever I want.” This is, of course, not true at all and would be shocking news to the Framers of the Constitution who had just won independence from a king with unlimited power and thought that they had crafted a document that specifically limited the power of the president.
Some Republicans have harrumphed at the idea of unlimited presidential power as well as the Justice Department opinion that sitting presidents cannot be indicted, an opinion that essentially puts the president above the law. Nevertheless, Republicans acted in lockstep with the White House to cover up President Trump’s abuses power during the impeachment process and almost unanimously looked the other way when it came time to vote, not just on impeachment, but on any attempts to rein in Mr. Trump and hold him accountable.
At this point, it is very difficult for any Trump critic to justify a vote for any Republican. If you are bothered by Trump’s excesses, know that Republicans will do nothing to stop them and
“That the Republican Party has and will continue to enthusiastically support the President’s America-first agenda….”
As I attempt to briefly make the case against Donald Trump, it would be a glaring omission not to address the Trump Administration’s abysmal handling of the Coronavirus pandemic. To be sure, the pandemic would have been a disaster regardless of who was president and that some governors also bungled their pandemic responses, but President Trump needs to be held to account for the steady stream of bad decisions and misinformation that came from his Administration – often from Trump directly – since the virus hit the US in February and March.
Trump’s mismanagement of the crisis continues after six months. After downplaying the threat of the virus for months, the Trump Administration is currently pushing scientists and regulators to cut corners and release a Coronavirus vaccine before Election Day, an artificial deadline that has no bearing on whether the vaccine will be tested or ready. In response, Moncef Slaoui, the immunologist heading the American vaccine effort, told Science magazine that the vaccine “needs to be absolutely shielded from the politics,” but
Likewise, Trump’s accomplishments, including the economy, have been greatly exaggerated. In the case of the economy, the president’s trade war had devastated the manufacturing and farm sectors even before the pandemic hit. The tariff wars caused the US to enter a recession in February, several weeks before the onset of the pandemic lockdowns. The downturn associated with the pandemic provided convenient cover for Mr. Trump’s bad economic policies, which he has doubled down on as the nation tries to recover. In the meantime, China is experiencing an export boom. Nevertheless,
“The Republican Party has and will continue to enthusiastically support the President’s America-first agenda….”
A Trump loss would be good for the Republican Party albeit painful in the short term. As we have seen, Donald Trump has moved the GOP in the wrong direction. His antics have alienated so many voters across the country, particularly minorities, that no one (save the most deluded members of the MAGA base) seriously expects Trump to win a popular vote victory. Any Trump win would be dependent upon a fluke similar to his 2016 hat trick in the Electoral College. A party whose strategy acknowledges that a majority of voters will not support them is not a healthy party.
Rather than calling 2020 a Flight 93 or Titanic election, I like to use the analogy of making a wrong turn onto a dead-end road. The road might be nice and have pretty scenery but it won’t take you where you want to go. Sooner or later, you’re going to have to turn around and back track to get on the right path. The sooner you make that course correction, the better off you are. And that’s where Republicans are likely to be in two months: At a dead end. If the party can eke out a victory this year, they will just have further to backtrack in 2024.
Many of my Trump-critical friends argue that Trump should be re-elected because the Democrats are so bad. This Blue Party Bad argument is compelling, especially in light of this summer’s civil unrest, but it falls short on two points.
First, it ignores the fact that Democrats rallied to reject the radical wing of their party and picked the most stable, moderate, milquetoast candidate who had a chance of winning. To listen to Republicans, you would think that Bernie Sanders is the Democratic nominee, but that is not the case no matter how much Republican messaging seeks to conflate the two. Moderate Democratic voters, of which there seem to be many more now than four years ago (partly because many have deserted the GOP), specifically rejected the radical left.
Secondly, Blue Party Bad does not make Orange Man Good. I don’t agree with much of what the Democrats stand for, but at least they stand in opposition to unfettered executive power and corruption… for the moment. That would undoubtedly change with a Democrat in the Oval Office, which is why I hope the election results in a division of power between two parties, neither of whom can be trusted to wield it unilaterally.
Barack Obama told Vladimir Putin that he would have “more flexibility” after his last election. So too will President Trump, especially if Republicans retain control of Congress. A lawless president unconstrained by Congress and surrounded by yes-men could do irreparable damage to the foundations of American democracy. Four years of liberal policies would be bad but probably less damaging in the long run than Trump’s systematic destruction of the norms, traditions, and safeguards that have preserved our system of limited government for two centuries.
But what of the question of abortion and pro-life conservatives (of which I am one) who cannot bring themselves to vote for any pro-choice candidate? First, even though Donald Trump has made some pro-life gains, most of these are the result of Executive Orders that would probably have been signed by any Republican president. Second, abortion has been declining for four decades irrespective of which party controls the White House. That trend will most likely continue if Joe Biden becomes president. Finally, a true pro-life viewpoint should extend beyond abortion to concern for vulnerable countrymen in a pandemic and immigrant families seeking asylum.
Donald Trump is neither a good president nor a good man. His time in office has been needlessly divisive and reflects poorly on all who supported him, particularly traditional Republicans and conservative Christians. The images of both of these groups have been tarnished by their association with a man who has shown that many of their deeply-held beliefs and principles were easily abandoned for a temporary political advantage.
I’m not endorsing Joe Biden or any other candidate. In fact, I’m undecided on who I will vote for. What I am endorsing is a vote for anyone other than Trump. If you cannot pull the lever for Biden, there are many other third-party options that you can support instead of rewarding Donald Trump for four years of bad behavior. I urge you to consider these options for the good of your country as well as your party.
It is high time for voters to tell Mr. Trump, “You’re fired.”
Last night, the Republican voters of Florida’s 21st congressional district nominated Laura Loomer, a longtime fringe right conspiracy theorist and anti-Muslim bigot to challenge Democrat Rep. Lois Frankel. You may remember Loomer from 2019 when she handcuffed herself to the Twitter office building in New York City after being banned from the social media platform after she, in Buzzfeed’s description, “tweeted a series of anti-Muslim falsehoods about Ilhan Omar.”
President Trump praised Loomer in a tweet after her primary victory last night. She was also supported by none other than Roger Stone and alt-right idols Milo Yiannopoulos and Proud Boys founder Gavin McInnes per USA Today.
In 2019, Loomer jumped fences at both Nancy Pelosi’s house and the California governor’s mansion to protest immigration policy. Ironically, the activist was heard to scream that walls work after hopping Pelosi’s fence to trespass on her property in Napa. Trespassing at the governor’s mansion resulted in another arrest.
In addition to her Twitter ban, Loomer has been kicked off of Paypal, GoFundMe, and Venmo. She was also banned from Uber and Lyft after tagging the companies in a tweetstorm in which she called for the creation of a “non Islamic” [sic] rideshare app “because I never want to support another Islamic immigrant driver.”
Loomer’s Twitter ban occurred in November 2018 after another rant in which she called Rep. Omar “anti Jewish” [sic] and described Islam as a religion in which “homosexuals are oppressed” and “women are abused” and “forced to wear the hijab.” Twitter called the comments a violation of is rules of conduct but Loomer defended her words.
“Everything I said is 100 percent true and factual. It’s not malicious, it’s not mean, it’s not hateful,” Loomer said, quoted by NBC News.
Loomer’s nomination comes on the heels of QAnon supporter Marjorie Taylor Greene’s primary win in Georgia. Greene also tweeted her congratulations to Loomer.
Unlike Greene, who faces no serious opposition from Democrats in the general election, Loomer will face a tough campaign. Democrats have represented the 21st district since 2013 and Hillary Clinton won the district by 20 points in 2016. Republicans should breathe a sigh of relief that Loomer, unlike Greene, won’t spend the next two years saying and doing embarrassing things as a Republican elected official.
Still, the now-established pattern of Republican voters nominating radical fringe activists as mainstream candidates represents a disturbing trend for a party that has become enamored with and given over to the conspiracy fringe. For the past four years, Republicans have lurched from one conspiracy to the next including the Deep State, the belief that the FBI concocted the Russia hoax, QAnon, and the belief that pandemic is an attempt to “get” Trump. But Republican conspiracies go back even further. Before Trump, there was Obama’s birth certificate and the belief that he was a closet Muslim as well as Jade Helm and the idea that RINO Republicans were a fifth column that was selling out conservatives.
It is the growing conspiracy wing of the party that propelled Donald Trump to the nomination (when traditional Republicans split the vote of the majority opposed to Trump). Trump’s increasing hold on the party and the mainstreaming of the conspiracy theories has made candidates like Loomer and Greene acceptable.
In reality, I suspect that it wasn’t despite Loomer’s history that she won her primary but because of it. As with Trump, many Republicans assume that, if the media is against them, they must be doing something right, so attempts to de-platform the nuts give them more credibility with the tinfoil hat base.
For me, a major (but not the only) stumbling block to voting Republican these days is the party’s slide into conspiracy madness. That includes a denial of the seriousness of the pandemic. Laura Loomer and Marjorie Taylor Greene are not in my district but the Republican acceptance of the pair and their far-out beliefs taints the entire party.
