Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, Iran

 It has been a long time coming. Israel launched preemptive attacks against Iran on Thursday afternoon, which would have been in the middle of the night in Tehran. The AP reports that the strikes hit both military and nuclear facilities and may have killed both top Revolutionary Guard officials and nuclear scientists. As I write this, another wave is reportedly underway. 

It was just a matter of time before either the US or Israel hit Iran. I’m old enough to remember thinking that George W. Bush would probably attack before leaving office, especially with Barack Obama taking his place, but apparently Iraq filled his plate.

Photo credit: https://x.com/iraqschristians/status/1933329379956044019?s=61&t=X6XxCDIBmdrPHrSiKT5oaQ

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That isn’t to say nothing was done. In 2014, a cyber attack on Iran’s nuclear program with the Stuxnet virus was believed to be the work of the US and Israel. The attack probably delayed development of a nuclear weapon by several years. 

Both countries strongly oppose an Iranian bomb. Iran’s fingerprints are all over the Hamas’s October 6 attacks on Israel, and a proposed Israeli-Saudi peace deal was a motive. Iran launched a massive wave of cruise missiles against Israel in 2024, but was thwarted by a coordinated defense that included Israel and the US. There is little doubt that if the Iranians develop a nuclear weapon, they will use it. 

An obvious question is why Israel would choose now to attack. The Trump Administration has been negotiating a new nuclear deal with Iran, and Israel has its hands full with Gaza. Part of the answer may be that talks were failing and Iran’s proxies have been weakened by the Gaza war.

There is likely to be a strong retaliation from Iran. That retaliation could come in the form of cruise missile and drone attacks, conventional attacks by Iran’s allies on Israel’s borders, and terrorist attacks. 

The retaliation might be focused on the US as well. US military bases in the Middle East could be targeted. Back in 2020, Iran launched a cruise missile attack on a US airbase in Iraq to retaliate for the killing of a top Revolutionary Guards general. US embassies and soft targets could also be the focus of retaliation.

We won’t know how successful the Israeli strikes are for some time. We also won’t know immediately whether the initial strikes devolve into a larger war. 

The fact that the two countries are a long way from each other is a good argument for a limited war. It would simply be too difficult for either side to launch a ground war, although we might see raids and missile launches by Hezbollah and Hamas (if there is enough left of Hamas to launch a raid). 

In closing, let’s look back to 1981. On June 7 of that year, Israel launched a similar strike against another nuclear facility called Osirak. The attack destroyed a reactor that was about to go on line in another hostile country. Ten years later, the dictator of that country invaded neighboring Kuwait, kicking of two decades of conflict with the United States. 

Israel took a lot of criticism for the Osirak strike on Iraq, but most of us would probably agree that it’s a good thing that Saddam Hussein never got nuclear weapons. The argument to keep them out of Iranian hands is much stronger.

I have serious problems with a lot of things that Israel has done, particularly when it comes to the Gaza war, but the bottom line is that an Iranian nuclear weapon is an existential threat to them along with being a serious threat to us. 

For a long time, it has been obvious that there were no good options when it came to preventing Iran from obtaining that weapon. Thursday’s attacks were probably the least worst option. 

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TRUMP’S UNCONSTITUTIONAL ORDER A federal judge ruled that Trump’s deployment of the National Guard to LA was “both exceeding the scope of his statutory authority and violating the Tenth Amendment to the United States Constitution” per CNN. The order to return control of the Guard to California has been paused until noon Friday, and the DOJ has already appealed.

From the Racket News

The backlash begins

 I wrote at Trump’s 100-day mark that a backlash was coming. As of last weekend, it’s here.

Violent protests in California erupted as a predictable result to ICE’s heavy handed tactics against people who are not the violent criminals that Donald Trump said he would target. Trump may have said that he would target violent criminals, but it was obvious to most of us that he would do what he is doing: Targeting almost any immigrants that he can find, including taking administrative actions that make legal immigrants illegal so they can be targeted as well.

California National Guard in Los Angeles. (Credit US Northern Command/Wikimedia)

Yes, there is a lot of justifiable anger at what Trump is doing. What is not justified is the violence. I’m going to be morally and logically consistent here and say that political violence is wrong, whether it’s carried out by BLM protesters, MAGA insurrectionists, or anti-ICE mobs.

Violence is also counterproductive. Immigration remains a strong point for Trump, but polling shows that Americans are concerned about the Administration going too far and not following due process. Violent protests against ICE play right into Trump’s hands. In fact, I’d go so far as to say Trump was waiting for and salivating at the possibility that his opponents would turn violent.

It’s no secret that Trump and Stephen Miller have looked for an excuse to invoke the Insurrection Act. Trump’s quick decision to deploy the National Guard (and now Marines) to Los Angeles is an indication that the Administration had given the matter thought prior to the outbreak of riots. The fact that they considered using the Insurrection Act in 2020 is another indication.

Trump’s use of the military breaks with tradition in that it is over the objection of the state’s governor. The legality of the order is being debated, but I will say that the government should be restoring order, but it should be the governments of Los Angeles and California that should be doing so. Trump did not wait to see whether Gavin Newsom would take the matter seriously and request help if necessary. Rather, he usurped the traditional federalist order of allowing states to handle their own affairs.

Republicans used to agree with this view. As recently as 2020, Donald Trump said that he couldn’t deploy the National Guard without a state request. As recently as last year, Kristi Noem, last seen cosplaying as an ICE agent, tweeted that the possibility of President Biden might federalize the National Guard “would be a direct attack on states' rights.”

I’m going to go out on a limb and say the legality of Trump’s deployment depends on what he asks the troops do. There is some evidence, including a statement from US Northern Command, that the troops are merely there “to support the protection of federal personnel and federal property in the greater Los Angeles area.” Such a mission is almost certainly lawful. On the other hand, if Trump attempts to use the military to engage in law enforcement, coerce California’s government, or detain political opponents, we move to gray and unconstitutional areas quickly.

As Americans, we must place some trust in our military as well. Military leaders and individual soldiers are aware of the law and the consequences if they break it. Most military people are honorable, law abiding, and patriotic. Not nearly all them are MAGA radicals.

Some MAGA supporters have favored martial law with Trump in charge. I’ve also seen people on the left calling for the military to intervene and depose Trump, so both sides can go from hot to cold and back again at the flick of a switch. Neither is probably going to happen.

Whether Trump’s actions are legal or not, they throw fuel on the fire. Bringing in the military over state objections raises the temperature and increases tensions and the possibility of additional violence. 

Again, that may be the point. If Trump wants an excuse to deploy more troops around the country then more violence would play right into his hands. Even if Trump simply wants to paint his opponents as violent radicals, stoking more violence would fit the script.

I’m not sure it’s going to go according to the script. People are already uncomfortable with ICE and there are plenty of other reasons to dislike Trump. Adding chaos and violence to the mix won’t necessarily drive people into the arms of MAGA. That’s especially true if Trump is transparently provoking the violence. 

If you doubt me, look back no further than 2020 when the BLM protests and riots were rocking the country. The left looked bad, but that did not make Trump look better. He lost the election that year no matter how MAGA rewrites history. 

I think a big part of 2020 was that Trump fatigue, partly fueled by the domestic violence and Trump’s response to it, outweighed the public’s dislike of the violence. We could see a repeat of that dynamic if the situation continues to escalate. 

I don’t think Trump’s response to the violence will help him with voters beyond his base. Even if he performs well, a very questionable possibility, it will be the old story of “Trump solves problem created by Trump.” The bottom line is that the violence would almost certainly not be happening under any other president. It’s a backlash to Donald Trump’s bad (and at times unlawful and unconstitutional) policy. 

Like the Trump ads that purported to show chaos from Biden’s tenure, but actually showed riots from Trump’s first term, what we are seeing is Trump’s America. Chaos is a big part of Trump’s brand. 

Violence is not the answer to Trump’s bad policies. Better answers are to let the courts work and focus on changing the government in upcoming elections.

That’s tough advice for people who are seeing their friends, family, and coworkers being detained and deported, however, sometimes for no good reason. Sometimes when they’ve followed the rules and done it the right way. 

When people who are here legally or in the asylum system (remember it’s legal to request asylum after entering illegally) are shipped off to a Salvadoran prison for an undetermined periods of time with no recourse, people get desperate. And desperate people do desperate things… like attacking immigration officers and burning cars. 

Yes, the violence is wrong, but it isn’t just caused by the people taking to the streets. I am very certain that Trump knew something like this would happen. I think he wanted it to happen because he believes it will be to his political advantage. It’s another way to create fear and division and focus hatred on minority scapegoat. It’s right out of the authoritarian playbook.

It’s going to get worse, and among the fallout will be further erosion of the trust in our government and institutions. That is one of the many of effects of the Trump Administration that will take decades to fix, always assuming we survive the next few years.

From the Racket News

Droning On

 

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, I have watched the conflict in both fascination and horror. A significant part of my interest stems from the photogenic nature of the war. From the earliest days of the conflict, we saw dramatic pictures and video of the fighting, while Ukrainian farmers stealing Russian armored vehicles became a meme. In subsequent years, a lot of the video came from drones.

Just over a year ago, I wrote about how the war has led to an explosion (pun intended) in combat drone technology. Modern drones are a lot like something out of the movies and can be reminiscent of the Terminator. Footage of drones chasing down Russian soldiers reminds me a lot of an old movie that I saw on television as an 80s kid.

“Runaway” featured Tom Selleck as the hero and KISS’s Gene Simmons as the villain. I watched the trailer as I was writing this, and it seems strikingly prescient for a film from 40 years ago, as you’d expect from something written by Michael Crichton. The evil Simmons would fire a small heat-seeker from his pistol, and the point of view would then shift to the perspective of this proto-drone as it chased its target through city streets. That old sci-fi movie has come to life on Ukrainian battlefields.

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Over the weekend, Ukrainian drone pilots did even better, scoring one of the largest victories of the war. I woke up on Sunday to images of Ukrainian drones flying down the flight lines of Russian air bases, destroying aircraft. Operation Spider Web is estimated to have knocked out about a third of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet at four airbases across Russia, some thousands of kilometers from the front lines.

As the BBC explains, the attack was a long time in the making. The Ukrainians built special modular homes or sheds that contained a total of 117 remote-controlled drones and smuggled them into Russia on semi-trucks. The trucks parked outside the airbases, and then the drone attacks were launched simultaneously through retractable roofs in the buildings. The Daily Mail reports that the truck drivers had no idea that they were part of a secret plot to kneecap Russia’s bomber forces, which have been used to target Ukrainian cities but also have a nuclear mission.

The extent of the damage is unclear, but Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) claimed that 41 planes had been damaged or destroyed. Military bloggers using open source information have identified the targets as including TU-160M Blackjacks, Russia’s newest and most capable strategic bomber, TU-22 Backfires, similar to our B-1 Lancer, and TU-95 Bears, which have their roots in the US B-29 from WWII but are capable of reconnaissance and launching cruise missiles. Russia is also reported to have lost an A-50 AWACS radar plane. Many of the losses are irreplaceable since the planes are out of production. It is an attack that has been compared to Pearl Harbor, but Russia started this war three years ago, so they should not have been surprised.

But that made me think. We are not the only ones watching Ukraine wreak havoc on the Russian war machine. I am certain that other countries like Iran and China are watching as well. It’s easy to see what cheap, low-tech drones can do to a multi-billion-dollar air force in a matter of minutes.

I sincerely hope that Defense Secretary Hegspeth is also watching, between doing pushups and removing references to women and minorities from DOD websites. I’m old enough to remember that a lot of the same people who call our military too soft and woke are the same people who were saying that the Russian military was the height of professionalism and would subdue Ukraine within days.

I am far more concerned about whether our adversaries have the capability to launch their own Operation Spider Web attacks on the US military than whether the military celebrates the achievements of the Tuskegee Airmen, Navajo Code talkers, and pioneering military women. If the left lost its focus when it came to turning national defense into a sociology experiment, so has the right.

I want to know what we are doing to defend against potential drone attacks. Do we have systems in place at military bases to shoot down hostile drones? Can they be disabled through electronic warfare? Are we ready to take these defensive actions at a moment’s notice on a Sunday morning?

And what about the potential use of drones as weapons of terror? A few drones packed with explosives and shrapnel could be devastating to soft targets filled with civilians. Imagine Gene Simmons flying a few dozen such remotely-piloted weapons into a sports stadium.

We are laughing and celebrating along with the Ukrainians this week. At least those of us who aren’t pro-Putin are. Many in MAGA world seem apoplectic about Russia’s humiliation, and Trump has not commented on the attack. Trump may be miffed that Ukraine launched the attack without telling him, but you can hardly blame them. Telling the Trump Administration would be akin to telling Vladimir Putin.

Next week, however, might be a different story. Next week, we might be looking at our own Pearl Harbor or September 11 Part Deux as drones rise up to attack our bases or cities. The Ukraine war footage is fascinating to watch, but it’s also a harbinger of what may be to come, even if Skynet does not become self-aware in the near future.

It’s a dangerous world made more dangerous by incompetent leaders in our own government. While Trump is golfing, Noem is posing for law enforcement cosplay photos, Musk is taking an axe to entire federal agencies, and Hegspeth is doing pushups or whatever, I sincerely hope that there are level-headed career professionals who haven’t been fired or driven into deep cover who are bearing the weight of the defense of the nation on their shoulders. Traditionally, it has been career soldiers, diplomats, and bureaucrats who kept the government on track as political appointees came and went, but a lot of those people are being replaced with Trump loyalists.

Operation Spider Web was a great victory for Ukraine (and an almost bloodless one), but it should be a wake-up call for us. Elections matter, and so does competence.

From the Racket News