Friday, August 7, 2026

Socialism vs socialism

 There is a lot of fallout from the Michigan election this week on both sides of the aisle. Republicans are salivating at the chance to label Democrats as socialists and play the Islamist card after the nomination of Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive congressional candidate who bested a Democratic establishment incumbent, while Democrats are panicking about the progressive surge and how it will affect their midterm chances. 

A new Gallup poll shows that socialism is less popular than free enterprise and capitalism by large margins. Although they like the idea of equality and safety nets, they dislike the inefficiency, government control, and disincentive to work. 

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A few weeks ago, I wrote, “Democratic primary voters are not playing it safe, when that’s what they really should be doing if they want to ensure that Trump is blocked from implementing his authoritarian agenda.” 

In some cases, that seems to be holding true. In others, not so much. For instance, you probably have not heard about how in another Democratic primary this week, Wesley Bell, a moderate congressman, defeated former representative Cori Bush in Missouri for the second time. And there are other moderate Democrats like Roy Cooper in North Carolina and Jon Ossoff in Georgia who won their primaries and seem ready to cruise to general election victories. Ossoff is even picking up Republican endorsements

Two things can be true at once. The Democrats do have a socialist problem, but they also have a strong moderate faction. The big picture is that Democrats are showing some diversity of thought and nominating candidates of different ideologies in different regions. Only about a thirdof Democrats identify as democratic socialists. 

Contrast that with Republicans, where Trump approval is still at 80 percent, even though only about 20 percent of the party is enthusiastic about the remainder of Trump’s term. On the surface, that seems like some major cognitive dissonance, but I suspect that they don’t blame Trump for his failures. As others have said, Trump can never fail; he can only be failed. 

But the Democratic problems don’t necessarily mean that Republicans have clear sailing for the midterms. For starters, they have their own albatrosses. Democrats dumped Graham Platner, better late than never, but Republicans are sticking by Max Miller, an Ohio congressman accused of illegal drug use and domestic violence that includes throwing hot water on his wife, threatening her with a gun, and physical abuse of their two-year-old daughter

Republicans have also given Democrats ammunition to fight back on the socialist label. For example, a sound bite this week that accused oil companies of “making too much money” from the Iran war came from Donald Trump rather than democratic socialists. 

"[It's] too much money. You're surprised? I'm saying it. I'll say it loud and clear," the president added.

Even more damaging, the US government is now a shareholder in 30 private companies, up from zero prior to Trump. In some cases, the government has a controlling interest in these companies. 

On Thursday, Trump told reporters, “We’ll have a big percentage of the [computer] chip business by the time I leave office,” before once again casting doubt upon whether he plans to leave office in 2029. What could go wrong with government central planning and control of the computer chip industry?

By definition, socialism is “governmental ownership and administration of the means of production and distribution of goods,” so by definition the Republican Party is now a more successful socialist organization than the party of Bernie Sanders and AOC. 

To make matters worse, Trump’s socialism comes with the things that Americans don’t like, such as government control and inefficiencies, and not the things they do, such as free education and healthcare. As someone pointed out, Republicans made a long-term strategic error by labeling popular free government services as socialist.

In attacking socialism from Democrats, the vice president is now saying that the “last forty years of bipartisan economic policy has failed.” For those of you doing the math at home, that means that JD Vance is disavowing everything back to 1986. That includes the largest economic expansion in world history, the Reagan boom of the 1980s and 1990s, not to mention admitting that Trump’s first term was an economic failure. Vance’s statement is both historically and economically ignorant. 

Vance goes on to defend Trump’s economic policies, which include protectionism and the aforementioned socialist takeover of a growing number of businesses. Vance credits Trump with saving American manufacturing and “making it possible to own a home and have a family,” but manufacturing jobs have continued a 70-year decline under Trump (the culprit is automation; manufacturing output over the same period) and affordability is a major issue this year because prices are rising thanks in large part to Trump’s policies of tariffs, trade wars, and energy crises sparked by literal wars. Home ownership has declined in Trump’s current term.

The state of the economy is illustrated by the recent online debate about whether it is possible to feed a family of eight burritos for $20.. It may technically be possible, although probably not with meat, but when the party in power is arguing that consumers need to cut back and be more savvy shoppers, it’s an election red flag. That’s especially true when the party in question promised lower prices.

The Republican attacks on democratic socialism are also a bit disingenuous. In Wisconsin,Francesca Hong’s campaign filings show that she has spent exactly zero on television ads in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Instead, Hong’s campaign is being boosted by Republican ads attacking her despite the fact that she hasn’t won the nomination. 

This tactic can work by elevating an easier-to-beat opponent, but it can also backfire. Hillary’s campaign boosted Donald Trump in 2016, a decision that the entire party has long since come to regret.

Socialism rising in the Democratic party is not a good thing. I’m hoping that more Democratic voters choose electable moderates over DSA radicals, but the current state of the nation and the highly unpopular policies of Donald Trump and the Republican Party make it likely that radical Democratic candidates are not only going to get nominated, but elected. 

The socialist surge in the Democratic Party won’t wipe out the Democrats’ chances in the midterms, but it might reduce the margin of victory. At the same time, the New Democrat majority is likely to be more leftist due to the DSA influence.

Trump’s incompetence and corruption are fueling Republican popularity that is making it possible for democratic socialists to rise to prominence. Republican dysfunction may end up ushering in a larger socialist faction among the Democrats because the alternative is an authoritarian nationalistic socialism from Republicans. 

Horseshoe theory is a real thing. The answer to preserving our republic and economy is not to veer to either left or right, but for bipartisan moderates to unite across the aisle and reject the radicals of both extremes. 

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BIRTH CITIZENSHIP II: ELECTRIC BOOGALOO Apparently believing that the Supreme Court was just fooling, Trump signed new Executive Orders limiting with the aim of limiting birthright citizenship. Upon closer inspection, however, the Orders seem more a restatement of existing law.

DETAINED MILITARY FAMILIES The AP reports that dozens of military spouses and parents have been arrested and detained by ICE. 

CHRISTIAN HYPOCRISY HURTS A recent survey of Gen Z adults by the Wheaton College Billy Graham Center Research Institute found that half of respondents said that Christian support of Trump makes them less likely to church.


From the Racket News

Monday, August 3, 2026

What are the Iranians thinking?

 The fact that the Iran war continues in fits and starts isn’t news, but the question is why the war isn’t over. Iran has had numerous opportunities not only to end the fighting, but to end the fighting with the strategic victory of control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. 

To hear the Trump Administration tell it, Iran is like the Black Knight in “Monty Python and the Holy Grail.” The erstwhile knight unsuccessfully fights King Arthur, losing one limb after the other, but he never gives up, asserting, “Tis but a scratch.”

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I’ve lost count of how many times the Trump Administration has said that Iran was defeated and its military destroyed. Somehow, like the Black Knight, Iran fights on. 

So what are the Iranians thinking? They apparently don’t realize that they are destroyed and defeated. 

One possibility is that the regime is suicidal. This is the view of many Republican Iran hawks. Going way back to 2009, I read several books about Muslim theology and the Twelfth Imam, a belief that is similar to Christian endtimes theology in many ways. I described the Twelver sect in my blog at the time and related how then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seemed to believe that these prophecies were about to be fulfilled. Ahmadinejad, by the way, is apparently who the Trump Administration had picked to lead post-regime change Iran.

The regime clearly doesn’t value the lives of their citizens, but that doesn’t mean it is suicidal. In fact, the regime seems to be more clear eyed about what it can realistically accomplish than Trump and Netanyahu. In fact, I think that Iran has Trump right where it wants him. 

Iran knows that Trump desperately needs to end the war for two reasons. First and most obviously, the midterms are coming and the war is unpopular. A war that drags on until Election Day would be one more strike against Republicans in a year that already has the momentum moving against them.

Perhaps more important, Trump started the war unilaterally and consequently has very limited authority to fight it. The clock has already run out and been restarted on the War Powers Act, a move of dubious constitutionality in itself, and war-limiting bills have passed the House, even with its Republican majority. If the war drags on into the new Congress, Trump may well find his war funding cut off.

As I wrote back in March, Trump has to do something to claim a victory, but Iran just has to survive. Iran’s regime is winning by continuing to exist and denying Donald Trump the ability to declare victory and stop fighting. 

Like Rocky Balboa at the hands of someone in every installment of the series, Iran just won’t stay down for the count. When Trump declares a unilateral ceasefire, it is often Iran that triggers a resumption of hostilities, like a battered, bloody boxer that rises off the mat to take yet another shot at the champ.

And more like Rocky than the Black Knight, the damage inflicted on Iran seems to be overestimated. The proof of that statement is that Iran is still able to inflict damage on US bases in the region and neighboring countries. 

Trump is caught in a trap. Like the proverbial monkey with his hand inside the log (or the tar baby from Southern folklore), Trump can’t let go, but he also can’t get the prize. He’s stuck. 

He can continue bombing “until morale improves,” but the air campaign isn’t doing anything except expend ordnance at this point, and US ordnance stockpiles are becoming depleted, threatening our abilities not only in Iran but elsewhere. The only way to topple the regime is a ground invasion. It’s painfully obvious that Trump won’t do this for the two reasons cited earlier.

Trump could also aim lower and shift his war goal to reopening the strait that was open before he started bombing. The problem there is that Iran seems to still have a plentiful supply of drones and missiles to shoot at ships. To end the Iranian threat to shipping would probably require occupying the whole country because the range of these weapons is several hundred miles. At that point, regime change is back on the table. 

And what if Trump does overcome his TACO tendencies and order in the infantry? Keep in mind that Iran has been supplying drones to Russians fighting in Ukraine. There are probably many members of the regime who would welcome the chance to fight a guerrilla war against Americans from Iran’s cities and mountains. In short order, we’d be seeing drone videos of American soldiers being stalked by the devices, just as we’ve watched Russian soldiers dying at the hands of Ukrainian drones. 

Escalating the war with Iran could also have further unintended consequences. Houthi rebels in Yemen, allies of the Iranian regime, could move off the sidelines to blockade a second trade route, the Bab el-Mandeb strait that accesses the Red Sea. Opening a second theater would further strain US resources.

Going further, an invasion would be incredibly bloody, and as in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, a lot of the country would see us as occupiers rather than liberators. Iran would become another endless war unless Congress pulls the plug. 

And then there’s the oil. Even during the ceasefires, Hormuz shipping didn’t return to anywhere near normal. As a result, world oil stockpiles are being depleted. Trump has kept a lid on gas prices at home by tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but per the Energy Information Agency, he has reached the end of his ability to do so. As of the end of July, the reserve is at its lowest point since 1982 with only a two-week supply left. 

Trump has also gamed oil markets by fighting a weekend war. A pattern has emerged of threats and bombing late in the week with ceasefires breaking out before markets open on Monday. 

An additional risk to escalation is that if Iran inflicts further damage on Persian Gulf oil facilities, the energy crisis would be exacerbated. The Saudis reportedly raised this concern before Trump backed down from his most recent threats of escalation. 

Time is on Iran's side in almost every respect. Trump is facing a impending election, growing discontent in Congress, and a looming world energy crisis.

Again, Iran just has to survive. With the strait mostly closed, world economies are slowly being strangled by the lack of oil and rising energy prices. Trump has to somehow turn on the oil spigot again… without expanding the war. That’s a tall order, and it comes with an Iranian veto.

Donald Trump started this war, but he can’t end it. Iran is unwilling to accept his peace terms, even when he essentially offers an American surrender. That’s why Trump is stuck in the loop of bomb-threaten-cave-repeat. 

He has no cards. 

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REFLECTING POOL The DOJ dropped the charges against an Olympian and others accused of vandalizing the reflecting pool, saying the pool’s problems were the result of shoddy workmanship. Ever committed to the bit, Trump insisted on social media that the damage was caused by vandals.


From the Racket News