Alabama Senate Race Too Close To Call

There is another new wrinkle in the topsy-turvy Alabama Senate race. A new poll released over the weekend showed Democrat Doug Jones with a three-point lead over embattled Republican Roy Moore.

The Washington Post – Schar School poll found Jones with 50 percent support of 739 likely voters to Moore’s 47 percent. The poll has a margin of error of 4.5 points making the poll a statistical tie.

Two other polls that overlap the Post poll further confuse the state of the race. A CBS/You Gov poll released this morning found Moore with a six-point lead over Jones and an Emerson College poll gave Moore a three-point advantage.  

The only recent poll that shows either candidate with a lead outside the margin of error is the CBS poll, which found Moore with a 49-43 advantage over Jones. That poll sampled 766 likely voters and had a margin of error of 4.8 percent.

The polling showed that voters are divided over the allegations against Moore. The Post poll showed that 35 percent believe that Moore harassed teenage girls while 37 percent are unsure or have no opinion. Only 28 percent doubt the accusations. CBS reported that 92 percent of Republicans don’t believe the accusations against Moore.

Only one poll, Emerson, asked voters about independent candidate Lee Busby. Busby entered the race in mid-November as a conservative alternative to Moore. The retired Marine polled at five percent compared to 49 and 46 percent for Moore and Jones respectively.

Emerson is also the only poll of the three that has regularly sampled the race. The record of polls on Real Clear Politics shows that previous Emerson polls gave Moore 55 percent in early November and 53 percent just after Thanksgiving. This shows a slight downward trend for Moore and more women came forward and Jones built an advantage in fundraising and advertising. Moore’s lead in the Emerson polling has declined from 10 points in early November to his current three-point advantage.

The small number of undecided voters may eventually break for Doug Jones since Moore is much more well known in the state. An axiom of polling developed by analyst Dick Morris is that undecided voters favor the insurgent candidate. If the incumbent or better-known candidate has not sealed the deal and is polling below 50 percent as the election approaches, it often means that he will lose the election.

Polling is difficult in state and local races and the different results almost certainly reflect different assumptions about what the electorate will look like as well as the changing nature of the race. The bottom line for the current crop of polls is that the race is too close to call. Moore seems to hold a slight lead despite Jones’ advantage in the Washington Post poll, but, with donations pouring in from around the country, Jones is within striking distance.

With the race inside the margin of error in most polls, the election could go either way. The final result will depend on which candidate can best urge their voters to turn out and get to the polls. 

Originally published on The Resurgent

Jones Has Heavy Advantage Over Moore in Ads and Fundraising

Roy Moore is still in a close race with Democrat Doug Jones, but you might not know it from watching Alabama television. The Democratic candidate is spending about seven times more than the scandal-plagued Republican. Jones has aired about 10,000 television ads compared to about 1,000 for Moore.

“I saw probably 40 to 50 Doug Jones ads, and I saw one Roy Moore ad,” Daniel Deriso, an aide to the Democratic mayor-elect of Birmingham, said of the Thanksgiving break.

Politico reports that Jones held a financial advantage even before the accusations of sexual misconduct against Moore. Since the reports of Moore’s alleged misbehavior in the late 1970s became public, online donations to the Jones campaign have rolled in from around the country. At the same time, the Moore campaign took a hit as the Republican National Committee cut off support.

AL.com gave Moore a slight fundraising advantage in late October. At that point, Moore had raised $2.5 million through the end of September and had $543,000 on hand after the difficult primary fight. Jones had raised $1.6 million and had a balance of $1 million. Three weeks later, after Moore’s accusers came forward, the Washington Examiner reported that Jones was raising $250,000 per day.

The fundraising advantage gives Jones the upper hand in the race, which is rare for Democrats in deep red Alabama. Even amid the ongoing scandal and with scant support from national Republicans, polling shows a tight race with Moore and Jones in a dead heat. Jones’ ability to drown out Moore’s message in a blitz of advertising may be the deciding factor in the race.

Politico notes that Jones’ ads are aimed at Republicans who are not happy with Moore. The ads feature Republican critics of Moore, criticisms of the healthcare system and emphasize Jones’ background as a federal prosecutor, a nonpartisan position that helps to distance him from the national Democratic Party. The ads feature quotes from Ivanka Trump, Attorney General Jeff Sessions, and Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Al.) saying that they believe Moore’s accusers.

The Jones campaign is flush enough with ad money that it is moving beyond attacking Moore’s sexual history to education policy. In a new ad, Jones says that Moore “compares preschool and early childhood education to Nazi indoctrination” while Jones promises to work “across party lines for preschool and smaller class sizes.”

Appearing as nonthreatening and bipartisan is vital for Jones. Fifty-two percent of Alabamans identify as Republicans and half say they are conservative. There is no path to victory in a statewide election for a Democrat who cannot win Republican votes.

It is Jones’ liberal views that are his Achilles heel in conservative Alabama. His opposition to restrictions on abortion has made him vulnerable to attacks in a state where 57 percent of voters identify as pro-life. Still, some Alabamans find the accusations against Moore too much to overlook.

“I’d like to see someone in there who’d support Trump, but I believe the women,” Suzanne Turner of Huntsville told the Washington Post. “I put a Doug Jones sign in my yard. I felt a little sick doing that. But I had to.”

The race is reminiscent of last summer’s special election in Georgia in which Democrats pinned their hopes and treasure on Jon Ossof. Ossof outspent Republican Karen Handel by six to one in the race for former Secretary of Health and Human Services Tom Price’s congressional seat, but still lost a close race.

As the campaign enters the final stretch, it will be Jones whose message inundates the airwaves and sets the tone. Jones will be able to paint himself as a nonthreatening moderate while hammering away with the argument that Moore is an extremist and a sexual predator. In Alabama, it may still not be enough. 

Originally published on The Resurgent

Marine Colonel Enters Alabama Senate Race As Write-In Candidate

A new candidate has emerged the embattled Alabama Senate race. Lee Busby, a retired Marine colonel, has announced that he will challenge Republican Roy Moore and Democrat Doug Jones as an independent candidate in the special election to fill the seat of Jeff Sessions.

Per the Daily Beast, Busby, who served as a vice chief of staff to then-Gen. John Kelly, the current White House chief of staff, has worked as a defense consultant and investment banker since his retirement after 31 years as a Marine. In his spare time, Busby sculpts busts of fallen soldiers.

“Alabama is not happy with the two choices we have down here. They are not appealing,” Busby said.

Roy Moore, the embattled Republican candidate for the Alabama Senate seat, has been accused of inappropriate sexual contact with teenage girls when Moore was in his 30s. Additionally, Moore has embraced a number of conspiracy theories and failed to complete two terms as chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court. Polls showed a close race even before the allegations against Moore became public.

Busby’s entrance into the race as a write-in candidate is bad news for Roy Moore, who seemed to be consolidating a lead in recent days. Many prominent Republicans refused to support Moore on the basis of the credible accusations against him, but others, including President Trump, supported him on the grounds that the Senate seat was too important to lose to Democrats. Busby provides a conservative alternative for Alabamans who cannot vote for a man credibly accused of sexual assaulting teenage girls, but who also reject the liberal positions of the Democrats.

With the Alabama special election set for Dec. 12, Busby has only two weeks to mount a campaign. The late entry into the race means that Busby stands almost no chance of winning, but he could act as a spoiler in the tight race.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Poll Shows Alabama Senate Race Tied

A surprising new poll shows that Republican Roy Moore is tied with Democrat Doug Jones in the Alabama Senate race. Moore handily defeated incumbent Senator Luther Strange in the Republican primary last month.

In the new poll by Fox News, both Moore and Jones had the support of 42 percent of registered voters. The poll showed that only 53 percent of respondents were extremely or very interested in the race. Of those voters, Jones had a slight led of 46-45 percent.

Previous polling had shown Moore with a lead over Jones. Two polls taken at the end of September showed Moore with a lead of eight and five points respectively. Those polls sampled likely voters, which are historically more accurate than polls of registered voters.

The new poll shows deep divisions in the Republican Party. Forty-two percent of Moore’s supporters have reservations about the GOP candidate, who has a history of controversial behavior and comments. Only 28 percent of Jones voters have reservations.

Moore’s history, including two unfinished terms on the state Supreme Court, explains why a third a Jones voters support the Democrat candidate because they believe that Moore is too extreme. Twenty-one percent say that they are voting against Moore as opposed to voting for Jones.

While campaigning for Luther Strange, President Trump worried that Moore might have problems in the general election. Two months before Election Day, that seems to be a real danger. Thirty-nine percent say that Moore is “out of step” with Alabama compared to 29 percent who say that Jones is too liberal.

In deep red Alabama, the electorate still favors the Republican, but the new poll should be alarming to GOP strategists. Expect both parties to pour money into the state to compete for the 11 percent of voters who are still undecided.

Originally published on The Resurgent