CaptainKudzu: Turkey

Showing posts with label Turkey. Show all posts

Thursday, October 17, 2019

Pence Negotiates Turkish Ceasefire

Vice President Pence and Turkish President Erdogan announced a five-day ceasefire that would allow Kurdish forces, America’s former allies, to withdraw from the “safe zone” being established by Turkish forces, Reuters reported. Turkish officials hailed the agreement, saying that they got “exactly what we wanted.”

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu called the agreement a pause, rather than a ceasefire, but that Turkey would allow Kurdish fighters to withdraw. Cavusoglu said that ceasefires could only be agreed upon by legitimate parties, which would not include the Kurds, who Turkey considers to be terrorists.

Under the terms of the agreement, Kurdish fighters would have to surrender their heavy weapons and destroy fighting positions. Disputed areas would be left in Turkish hands. Pence said that Turkey had agreed to remain clear of the border city of Kobani, but Cavusoglu denied that Turkey had made such a commitment.

In a fox-guarding-the-henhouse moment, a joint U.S.-Turkish statement released after the talks said, “The safe zone will be primarily enforced by the Turkish Armed Forces.”

In a tweet, President Trump called the agreement “great news” and thanked Erdogan for saving millions of lives.

A senior Turkish official told CNN that Turkey got ” exactly what they wanted” from the agreement. Turkey was unleashed to act against the Kurds and, amid the outcry against Turkish brutality, the Trump Administration effectively handed Erdogan a strip of land in Syria and moved the Kurds away from Turkish borders. As part of the deal, the US also agreed not to implement sanctions against Turkey.

A US official agreed that Turkey won a major diplomatic and military victory, telling CNN, “This is essentially the US validating what Turkey did and allowing them to annex a portion of Syria and displace the Kurdish population.”

“This is what Turkey wanted and what POTUS green-lighted,” the official continued. “I do think one reason Turkey agreed to it is because of the Kurds have put up more of a resistance and they could not advance south any further as a result. If we don’t impose sanctions then Turkey wins big time.”

President Assad of Syria, whose territory is being given Turkey, has not commented on the deal. The Kurds allied with the Assad regime as a protective measure after being abandoned by the US and Syrian government forces were moving into the disputed Kobani area. It is possible that Syria, backed by Iran and Putin’s Russia, will not accept a pause that indefinitely puts Syrian land under Turkish control.

As a bottom line, the Trump Administration make Erdogan a deal that he couldn’t refuse in giving him everything that he wanted. The deal repairs Donald Trump’s unforced diplomatic error by fulfilling all of Erdogan’s war aims, save for one thing. The Kurds will live to fight another day rather than being exterminated. The survival of the Kurds, in alliance with Assad, and by extension Iran and Russia, lays the seeds for future generations of violence and bloodshed.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Sunday, October 13, 2019

Trump Cuts And Runs

A week after President Trump ordered US troops in northern Syria to pull back and allow Turkish forces to attack America’s Kurdish allies, the president has now ordered the approximately 1,000 American soldiers in the region to leave northern Syria altogether. The president’s decision to cut and run comes after numerous reports of Turkish atrocities against Kurdish fighters and civilians, the escape of hundreds of ISIS prisoners detained by the Kurds, and a Turkish artillery strike near a US Special Forces camp that was apparently targeted intentionally to intimidate the president.

On “Face The Nation” today, US Defense Secretary Mark Esper said, “We have American forces likely caught between two opposing, advancing armies and it's a very untenable situation. I spoke with the President last night, after discussions with the rest of the national security team, and he directed that we begin a deliberate withdrawal of forces from northern Syria, which is where most of our forces are.”

Esper also said that reports that the Kurds were making a deal with the Russians were a factor in the president’s decision. Yesterday, CNN reported that Kurdish leaders were reacting to their abandonment by the United States by seeking protection from Russia.

"You have given up on us. You are leaving us to be slaughtered," Kurdish Gen. Mazloum Kobani Abdi told Deputy Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, William Roebuck, on Thursday. "You are not willing to protect the people, but you do not want another force to come and protect us. You have sold us. This is immoral.”

"I need to know if you are capable of protecting my people, of stopping these bombs falling on us or not. I need to know, because if you're not, I need to make a deal with Russia and the regime now and invite their planes to protect this region," Mazloum said.

Esper and other members of the Trump Administration say that the US has not abandoned the Kurds and that Turkey would have invaded even without Mr. Trump’s retreat earlier this week.

"We are not abandoning our Kurdish partner forces and US troops remain with them in other parts of Syria," Esper told reporters at the Pentagon. "We remain in close coordination with the Syrian Democratic Forces who helped us destroy the physical caliphate of ISIS, but I will not place American service members in the middle of a longstanding conflict between the Turks and the Kurds, this is not why we are in Syria.” A week ago, there was no conflict between the Turks and Kurds in Syria.

President Trump tweeted this morning that the Administration was working with Congress to implement sanctions on Turkey, but the president has not made ending the war that his actions started a high priority. Mr. Trump played golf on both Saturday and Sunday.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1183376270731763714?s=20

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) tweeted on Sunday that the Trump Administration had not contacted him nor had he been notified of a congressional briefing regarding the “the unfolding events in Syria / Turkey / Saudi Arabia.”

https://twitter.com/chiproytx/status/1183375494374408192?s=20

Roy’s mention of Saudi Arabia refers to President Trump’s stated intention to deploy American forces to the Middle Eastern kingdom to help defend against another Iranian attack. At about the same time that the president was defending his abandonment of the Kurds in Syria by tweeting “The Endless Wars Must End,” he was also authorizing American entry into the proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran with an additional 3,000 troops, more than twice as many as were deployed to Syria.

It isn’t clear why the president felt the need to abruptly remove American forces from the Syrian frontier, but it is clear that a situation that was stable and relatively peaceful last week has quickly become another “endless war.” It was not the deployment of American soldiers that caused the fighting to erupt in northern Syria, it was Trump’s decision to remove them.

While American soldiers in Syria kept the peace between Turkey and the Kurds, that was not their primary mission. The Americans were there to destroy ISIS. So, how is that going? Not too good. Mr. Trump’s foreign policy blunder directly threatens America as ISIS gets a “second lease on life” according to a US official.

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1183428032587018240?s=20

It is also unclear why deploying Americans to Saudi Arabia is not fueling more “endless wars” but keeping them is Syria was. Maybe it’s because the Saudis have the money to pay for America’s friendship and aid and the Kurds don’t. Maybe it’s because the president’s friendships with dictators Erdogan and Putin trumped America’s alliance with the Kurds. Who really knows what has gone through the president’s mind over the past few weeks?

The only certainty is that Mr. Trump’s actions have destabilized the region and are directly responsible for the deaths of hundreds, if not thousands, of people. Many of those casualties are innocent people and many more of them trusted American honor and loyalty. It is difficult to see Donald Trump’s actions as anything other than a cynical betrayal resulting from a massively incompetent and incoherent foreign policy.

While his supporters champion Trump as a fighter, on the foreign policy front, he is anything but. The president’s record on international relations is one of appeasing dictators and betraying allies. His actions have handed Syria to the unholy trinity of Turkey, Russia, and ISIS.

An American Special Forces soldier summed up the entire situation on Wednesday, saying, “I am ashamed for the first time in my career. Turkey is not doing what it agreed to. It's horrible.”

Donald Trump’s actions have made America ashamed again.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Friday, October 11, 2019

Prank Phone Call Exposes Lindsey Graham’s Two Opposing Opinions Of Kurds

What are the odds that Russian pranksters would deceive Sen. Lindsey Graham into having a faux phone conversation with an ersatz Turkish defense minister only weeks before Turkey became an international pariah for its offensive against the formerly US-backed Kurdish forces in Syria? Believe it or not, in this case, the odds are 100 percent because, in another case of truth being stranger than satire, it happened.

Politico reports that Alexey Stolyarov and Vladimir Kuznetsov, two Russian hoaxers with suspected ties to Russian intelligence succeeded in getting Sen. Graham on the phone back in August, not once but twice. The pair, who go by the names “Lexus and Vovan,” convinced Graham that he was speaking to Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar. The duo’s call might have gone unnoticed except for the inconsistencies in their conversations with Graham and his public statements since the White House agreed to pave the way for the Turkish offensive by removing US troops.

Where Graham has been very critical of President Trump’s treatment of our Kurdish allies and calling for congressional action to sanction Turkey, the senator’s private comments to the fake Turkish minister conveyed a different message.

https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1181941868206133248?s=20

In the call, Graham called to the Kurds as a “threat” and expressed sympathy for Turkey’s “Kurdish problem.” Graham referred to Kurdish military units that had been allied with the US in the fight against ISIS, saying, “Your YPG Kurdish problem is a big problem.” Turkey has labeled the Kurdish fighters terrorists because they want a separate Kurdish state.

“I told President Trump that Obama made a huge mistake in relying on the YPG Kurds,” Graham continued. “Everything I worried about has come true, and now we have to make sure Turkey is protected from this threat in Syria. I’m sympathetic to the YPG problem, and so is the president, quite frankly.”

President Trump expressed similar sentiments this week, telling reporters, “If you read today — a couple of reports saying that when President Obama started this whole thing. As you know, it was started by President Obama; he created a natural war with Turkey and their longtime enemy, PKK. And they’re still there.”

The PKK, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, is a separate marxist Kurdish group that has been fighting a separatist war against the Turkish government since 1984. Both Turkey and the US consider the PKK a terrorist group.

In the second call, Graham also referred to the “Turkish bank” case of Reza Zarrab, a Turkish-Iranian businessman arrested in 2016 for helping Iran to violate sanctions. Zarrab’s release has been a high priority for Turkish president Erdogan. It was reported this week that President Trump pressured then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to interfere with the DOJ case on Zarrab’s behalf in 2017. Zarrab was convicted in 2018 and sentenced to 32 months in prison. Zarrab was also a client of Rudy Giuliani, President Trump’s personal attorney.

“And this case involving the Turkish bank, he’s very sensitive to that,” Graham said of Trump during the prank call. “The president wants to be helpful, within the limits of his power.”

“We want a better relationship with Turkey. That’s exactly what he [Trump] wants,” Graham said, also asking that Turkey rethink the NATO ally’s purchase of the S-400 anti-aircraft missile system from Russia. Graham also discussed getting Turkey added back as a customer of the US F-35 fighter aircraft program. Turkey was dropped as an F-35 customer in July after it accepted the Russian missile system.

A spokesman for Graham confirmed that the recording of the call was genuine, saying that it “slipped through the cracks” and “they got him.”

“It’s no secret Senator Graham has often traveled to Turkey and continued to speak with many members of Turkish government, including President Erdogan, about the relationship between our two countries," Graham spokesman Kevin Bishop added. "He has been clear he wants a stronger relationship and often talked about the importance of maintaining peace in northern Syria to prevent the reemergence of ISIS.”

"With Turkey’s invasion into northern Syria the drive for better relations between our two countries has suffered a body blow,” Bishop said. “Turkey should immediately withdraw their military forces and America should reinstitute the safe zone concept to keep the peace in the region. Until this is done, Senator Graham will continue to push for severe, biting sanctions against Turkey."

While I applaud Sen. Graham’s tough words to Turkey following Trump’s ill-considered retreat, I am concerned that Graham may have encouraged both Trump’s withdrawal and Turkey’s offensive by acknowledging that the Kurds represented a threat to Turkey. As to the discussion of Reza Zarrab, that seems very swampy.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Turkey Begins Offensive Against Kurds In Syria

Turkey has launched an offensive in northeastern Syria according to multiple reports. The Turkish offensive is aimed at seizing territory held by US-backed Kurds operating as Syrian Defense Forces (SDF).

The official Twitter account of the Turkish presidency tweeted that President Erdogan ordered the new offensive, which the Turks, in Orwellian fashion, have dubbed “Operation Peace Spring.”

CNN reported that Erdogan’s Turkish language Twitter account said that the offensive was aimed at “terrorists.” Turkey and the Kurds, an ethnic minority that does not have an official state, have a long history of animosity.

Erdogan said on Twitter, “Our aim is to destroy the terror corridor which is trying to be established on our southern border and to bring peace and peace to the region.” He added that Turkey “will preserve Syria’s territorial integrity and liberate local communities from terrorists.”

The stage was set for the Turkish offensive on Sunday when the Trump Administration announced unexpectedly that US forces in the region would withdraw to positions that would not block a Turkish invasion. The US has said that it would not intervene to protect the Kurds if Turkey attacks.

Trump’s decision was reportedly made without consulting military advisors. An official on the National Security Council with direct knowledge of Trump’s telephone conversation with Erdogan told Newsweek that the US president got “rolled” and that the move left the Defense Department “completely stunned.” A similar Trump announcement last resulted in the angry resignation of Defense Secretary James Mattis.

“President Trump was definitely out-negotiated and only endorsed the troop withdrawal to make it look like we are getting something—but we are not getting something,” the NSC official said. “The U.S. national security has entered a state of increased danger for decades to come because the president has no spine and that’s the bottom line.”

Many Republicans also condemned the president’s decision. ” “A precipitous withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria would only benefit Russia, Iran and the Assad regime. And it would increase the risk that ISIS and other terrorist groups regroup,” said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). “As we learned the hard way during the Obama administration, American interests are best served by American leadership, not by retreat or withdrawal.”

As the news of the US retreat broke on Monday, President Trump tweeted, “If Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off-limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey.”

It is not clear whether President Trump considers a Turkish attack on the Kurds to be “off-limits.” At press time, Mr. Trump had not commented on the Turkish offensive.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Monday, October 7, 2019

Trump’s Isolationist Tendencies Are Showing On Syria

In a surprise decision, the United States announced yesterday that it would abandon its Kurdish allies in northern Syria. The Kurds, who have been staunch allies of the US in the wars against ISIS and Saddam Hussein, are an ethnic minority whose homeland encompasses parts of Iraq and Turkey as well as Syria.

The US withdrawal paves the way for an expected invasion of northern Syria by Turkish dictator, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. PBS reports that the unusual late Sunday announcement by the White House followed a telephone call between Presidents Trump and Erdogan. It is not known whether the phone call involved former Vice President Joe Biden or his son, Hunter, who have been frequent topics of conversation for President Trump recently.

White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham said that U.S. troops “will not support or be involved in the operation” and “will no longer be in the immediate area.” The fate of America’s Kurdish allies was not mentioned in the statement.

This is not the first time that Trump has considered abandoning the Kurds to their neighbors. Last year, Trump’s announcement that he planned to withdraw American troops from Syria spurred the resignation of Defense Secretary James Mattis. In an interview with CBS last month, Mattis said that he resigned to protest what he saw as a serious strategic error, comparing the proposed Syria withdrawal to Barack Obama’s withdrawal from Iraq. Obama’s decision led directly to the rise of ISIS.

“We need to maintain enough influence there that we don’t see the same thing that happened when we withdrew from Iraq,” Mattis said. “This is how I saw the strength of America — that we keep our alliances together, and keep them tight.”

Sadly, Trump’s premature evacuation of Syria follows a recent American tradition of abandoning our allies. The Kurds will be added to a long list that includes South Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Iraq as well as Central American governments. Other US allies such as Afghanistan, Ukraine, Georgia, Taiwan, and even our NATO partners must be wondering how committed the Trump Administration is to them.

The unsettling feeling that even written treaty commitments are not ironclad is likely very common this morning given President Trump’s tendency to renegotiate treaties at the drop of a tweet. Trump foreign policy calls to mind the Darth Vader’s words from The Empire Strikes Back: “I am altering the deal, pray I don’t alter it any further. “

Even loyal Trump apologist Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) had sharp words for the president. On Twitter, Graham called Trump’s reversal on Syria ” disaster in the making,” noting that it would aid ISIS, push the Kurds into Iran’s orbit, hurt US relations with Turkey, and “be a stain on America’s honor.”

Lindsey Graham

✔@LindseyGrahamSC

· 2h

I don’t know all the details regarding President Trump’s decision in northern Syria. In process of setting up phone call with Secretary Pompeo.

If press reports are accurate this is a disaster in the making.

Lindsey Graham

✔@LindseyGrahamSC

* Ensures ISIS comeback.
* Forces Kurds to align with Assad and Iran.
* Destroys Turkey’s relationship with U.S. Congress.
* Will be a stain on America’s honor for abandoning the Kurds.

6,027

8:17 AM - Oct 7, 2019

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In reality, Donald Trump’s abandonment of our Kurdish allies is nothing new. The president opposed intervention in Syria going back at least to President Obama’s aborted 2013 plan to retaliate for Syria’s use of chemical weapons. During the 2016 campaign, Trump criticized Hillary Clinton’s plan for a no-fly zone and advocated having the US leave the fighting to the Russians and Syrians. Foreign Policy warned that such a plan would “end up empowering extremists and causing chaos across the Middle East.”

The new policy of retreat would seem difficult to square with Trump’s reputation as a fighter, but that reputation has always been more directed at domestic political opponents than at foreign powers. Trump’s “America first” philosophy has almost always been one of accommodation and appeasement. Like Obama, Trump’s focus has been on bringing the troops home regardless of the cost.

In the case of Syria, the cost is likely to be paid in Kurdish blood. Since the blood spilled will not be that of Americans, many will be fine with that. But there is a greater cost to America as well. Our allies will be less trustful of our commitments and our adversaries will know that they just need to bide their time.

Originally published on The Resurgent