Thursday, September 3, 2020

Swing State Voters Favor Biden On Crime And Coronavirus

 Fox News polling in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin found that President Trump trails Democratic challenger Joe Biden in all three of these states, which were won by Trump in 2016. A surprising finding of the report was that many voters prefer Biden over Trump when it comes to handling both crime and the Coronavirus pandemic.

In a head-to-head matchup, likely voters in all three states picked Biden over Trump:

Arizona: Biden-49 Trump-40

North Carolina: Biden-50 Trump-46

Wisconsin: Biden-50 Trump-42

The poll also asked about four issues facing the country: the economy, the pandemic, policing and criminal justice, and dealing with China. Here is who voters trusted “to do a better job” in the three states polled:

Economy: Biden-44 Trump-45
Coronavirus: Biden-53 Trump-36
Policing and Criminal Justice: Biden-47 Trump-42
China: Biden-44 Trump-43


North Carolina:
Economy: Biden-43 Trump-51
Coronavirus: Biden-50 Trump-41
Policing and Criminal Justice: Biden-46 Trump-47
China: Biden-43 Trump-48

Economy: Biden-45 Trump-45
Coronavirus: Biden-52 Trump-35
Policing and Criminal Justice: Biden-47 Trump-42
China: Biden-44 Trump-45

The polling showed lopsided support for Joe Biden on the pandemic, but also indicated a surprising weakness for the president on his signature issues. Across the three states, the best Trump could manage was a statistical tie on criminal justice. Joe Biden trailed the president on the economy and China in North Carolina but ranked statistically even with the president in Arizona and Wisconsin on those issues.

It is especially striking that Wisconsin voters preferred Joe Biden to handle policing and criminal justice since Kenosha has been the scene of violent protests and riots since Jacob Blake was shot by police on August 23. The subsequent unrest led to two killings by Kyle Rittenhouse, who is being charged with murder.

The polling also covered senatorial races in Arizona and North Carolina. In Arizona, Republican incumbent Martha McSally is trailing Democrat Mark Kelly by an astonishing 17 points (56-39 percent) in a race that is trending towards a landslide. In North Carolina, Thom Tillis, another Republican incumbent is doing a bit better but still trailing Democrat Cal Cunningham 48-42 percent.

These two races may provide Democrats with two of the three seats that they need to win control of the Senate. A probable loss by Alabama’s Doug Jones would require an additional two Democratic pickups.

The Fox polling only covered three swing states while several others are in play. If only these three states flipped from the 2016 results, Trump would still win the Electoral College by 270-268. Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania provide additional opportunities to put Biden over the top. As I discussed earlier this week, Biden leads in those states as well.

Polling data shows that Trump’s approaches to the plethora of crises facing voters are falling flat with voters. Today marks 60 days until Election Day. If Donald Trump intends to pivot to a more unifying (and competent) strategy that would better appeal to undecided and moderate voters, he is running out of time to do so.

Originally published on The Resurgent


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