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Thursday, April 23, 2020
More Bad News For Trump From The Rust Belt
Iwrote yesterday about the tight racesbetween Donald Trump and Joe Biden in four swing states. Now, a new poll is out that takes a look at three of those states in the Rust Belt. The news is not good for the president.
A newIpsos pollof registered voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin shows the president trailing his presumptive Democratic challenger in all three states. The survey showed Biden leading by 3 points in Wisconsin, 6 points in Pennsylvania, and 8 points in Michigan.
If the president loses all three states and there are no other changes from the 2016 results, he would lose the Electoral College by a260-278 margin. As I discussed yesterday, thepresident is also trailing in Arizonaso Biden has multiple paths to victory.
The poll had a margin of error of five points for each state so Wisconsin could be considered a statistical tie. Biden’s lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania is outside the margin of error.
Biden’s lead in the poll has expanded over his 3-4-point lead earlier this year. Interestingly, this suggests that Biden is gaining ground even though he has not been able to hold campaign events due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Given Mr. Biden’s penchant for gaffes, he may be doing better by not not holding events.
The results also suggest that the focus on President Trump, who is holding daily press briefings, has not helped his campaign. The president’s daily briefings have come under widespread criticism for his misinformation and misstatements.
Even though Trump has higher approval in these battleground states than he does nationally, his approval rating is still underwater in all three states. His net approval is -6 points in Wisconsin, -4 in Pennsylvania, and -12 in Michigan.
The poll does support the idea that Trump’s handling of the pandemic has hurt him. At 48 percent, Coronavirus is the top concern of voters in all states, and the president rates 20 points below state governors for his reaction to the crisis.
There are many wild cards for the upcoming election but the president has his work cut out for him in making up the deficit against Biden. Among the unknowns are how quickly the economy will recover and whether a second wave of the pandemic will strike before November. In the meantime, if President Trump wants to stem the bleeding, he should leave the press briefings to Drs. Fauci and Birx and Vice President Pence.