Monday, October 20, 2025
Myths about No Kings
Sunday, October 19, 2025
What is Trump's endgame?
We are not quite three-quarters into the first year of Donald Trump’s second presidential term, and the pace of Trump’s overreach seems to be quickening. Trump is attempting to send troops to Chicago and Portland, launching attacks on Caribbean boats with impunity, and openly threatening the political opposition at home. At the same time, the government is shut down and, with the House in recess, Republicans seem to have no interest in reopening it. The domestic economy is slowing, and Trumpand Republican approval ratings are falling.
When I look at the Trump-Republican agenda, I see few, if any, signs that the party ever plans to be out of power. They just don’t act like they have anything to lose by going full authoritarian. (Never go full authoritarian.) That isn’t to say that Trump is going to cancel elections. There are other explanations for the attitude.
Photo credit: Twitter screenshot from https://x.com/billifer1973
One plausible explanation is that Trump and MAGA are so securely protected by their bubbles of confirmation bias that they don’t see the growing tide of discontent and domestic problems. Maybe they actually think that they are doing a good job and that voters are pleased despite the polls. This is plausible because it has happened before as recently as the Biden Administration and the first Trump Administration and the Obama Administration.
Another possibility is that it’s an exercise in intimidation. Maybe Trump & Co. are trying to frighten potential opponents into standing down. Maybe they think making examples of a few high profile opponents will cow the rest. If that’s the case, they don’t know Americans very well.
There seems to be more to it this time, though. With Trump exercising more and more broad and unchecked power and becoming increasingly aggressive towards his political critics, calling for the arrest of some Democrats, this definitely feels different from previous presidents.
There are a couple of possibilities. One is that this is all for show, red meat for the MAGA base, and that Trump should, as his defenders have often said, be taken seriously but not literally. Maybe the small-scale deployments to Democratic cities (are there any other kind?) are yet another example of Trump acting to create a momentary headline while everything remains essentially unchanged.
Or maybe we are seeing harbingers of things to come, a boiling frog scenario of acclimating Americans to the sight of soldiers patrolling our cities and breaking down legal and psychological barriers to military occupation and law enforcement. There are at least two reasons that I think this is the likely answer.
First, the troops are being deployed at a time when there is no appreciable unrest. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that ICE protests in Portland were small and “low energy,” which sounds like a Trump insult, before the news of the deployment. Since then, Portland protesters have rallied in inflatable animal costumes, danced the “Cha Cha Slide,” and even held a reportedly-real wedding (between inflatable Kenny from “South Park” and a unicorn) rather than engaging in violence. Things have beenmore tense in Chicago, but local law enforcement still seems to have matters well in hand, and much of the violence seems to originate with ICE, which is amassing a record of excessive brutality including attacks on journalists and priests.
So why is Trump deploying the National Guard? My theory is that he hopes to provoke a violent response that will allow him to use the Insurrection Act. This law gives the president broad powers to use the military domestically with a low threshold for activation.
As Sarah Isgur and David French recently discussed on the Advisory Opinions podcast, Trump has two paths to the Insurrection Act. So far, deployments have involved National Guard troops under Title 10, a different part of federal law with a higher bar for use than the Insurrection Act, which can basically be implemented at presidential discretion. Use of the Insurrection Act without an insurrection would come at a high political cost, however. (The fact that the Insurrection Act has not been used already is one of the few considerations of political cost that I have seen from the Trump Administration.)
But if the National Guard deployments trigger violence and unrest, then Trump has a reason to invoke the Insurrection Act. This also explains the heavy-handed ICE tactics that are angering communities. It would be another classic case of “Trump Uses Emergency Power to Deal With Crisis Created By Trump.”
As Isgur and French further explain, the Insurrection Act bypasses the Posse Comitatus law, which restricts the use of the military for law enforcement. Under the current deployment rules, the National Guard can only be used for things like protecting federal buildings. Under the Insurrection Act, we could see regular army units patrolling cities and arresting people. It would be a hair away from martial law.
A second reason that this feels different is Trump and Hegspeth’s meeting of general officers. While much of what made the headlines from the meeting was Hegspeth’s changes to grooming and physical fitness standards, there were more sinister aspects that included scaling back whistleblower rules, more lenient rules of engagement, and allowing more hazing. Further, Trump told the generals, “We should use some of these dangerous cities as training grounds for our military….”
“If the words I’m speaking today are making your heart sink, then you should do the honorable thing and resign,” Hegseth added.
With Congress under MAGA control and Trump’s appointments starting to fill the judiciary, the military is one of the last bastions of resistance to Trump’s will. It is very possible that Trump and Hegseth want to encourage current military leaders to retire so that they can be replaced with MAGA loyalists in the ranks.
Trump remembers how Gen. Milley and others stymied his actions during his first term. We know this because Milley and others were mentioned in Hegspeth’s speech. Most of Trump’s appointments in his second term have focused on removing obstacles to Trump’s plans rather putting effective and intelligent people in federal jobs.
Beyond these two points, there are a multitude of other reasons to be concerned. The Administration has rolled out new restrictions on the press and punished outlets that don’t toe the line, even suggesting revoking the licenses of critical media outlets. Likewise, the Administration is threatening to hold federal funds for colleges hostage unless schools agree to a broad list of demands. There is the politically-motivated prosecution of James Comey, which was initiated just under the statute of limitations after Trump fired a federal prosecutor who refused to go to court with the very thin charges against Comey.
And then there is Dark Lord Stephen Miller’s recent claim that the president has “plenary authority,” i.e., unlimited control, over the military. For those unfamiliar with the US Constitution and its system of checks and balances, the president does not have unlimited power, although Miller’s claim parallels Trump’s longstanding belief that “I have the right to do whatever I want.”
So what does Trump want to do? What is his endgame? I think there are two possibilities. The first is that he wants to foment civil unrest as a way of making Democrats look bad and convincing voters to reject them and preserve Republican control.
The second possibility is that Trump wants to foment civil unrest to expand his emergency powers. Under this scenario, he may increasingly use lawfare against political opponents and attempt to use the military to control the population.
The first scenario can be beaten back at the polls, but the second includes the possibility that there might not be free and fair elections. Short of attempting to cancel elections, MAGA could intimidate voters and tamper with results, at least in states and precincts with MAGA election officials.
What happens in that case? Violence, for one thing. People would take to the streets in both violent and peaceful demonstrations. A plethora of lawsuits would be filed, for another. The military would likely be ordered to put down the demonstrations. If we get to this point, a big question will be which the courts and the army come down on.
I’m placing my hopes on the American people. A great many despots have been brought down by mass demonstrations and national strikes when public opinion turned strongly against them and the people overcome their fear to stand for freedom. In some cases, the dictator sees the writing on the wall and absconds ahead of the mob. In others, the demonstrations are violently repressed.
My hope is that American security forces would join the pro-democracy, Constitution, and rule of law protesters as we saw in the peaceful revolutions in former Soviet bloc countries, and not start shooting their fellow countrymen the way Chinese solders did at Tiananmen Square.
I hope and pray that we haven’t gone that far.
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NOT PRO-LIFE: The Intercept reported that ICE was detaining an unknown number of pregnant women against federal rules. Some of the moms say they are not being provided with prenatal care, basic medical care, or adequate healthy (and edible) food.
265 DAYS since Trump was inaugurated and the Epstein files still have not been released.
TRUMP GUN REGISTRY? AG Pam Bondi’s DOJ just forced several gun groups to reveal their membership lists as part of a lawsuit, raising concerns about a possible government list of gun owners. Trump has historically been squishy on the Second Amendment, and it’s likely than an authoritarian Trump government would eventually target gun owners.
KUDOS TO TRUMP for his role in Middle East ceasefire and release of the hostages. I am frequently critical of Trump, but on the occasion that he does something right, I have no problem with patting him on the back. I’m very happy for the freed hostages and their families. It’s way past time for the Gaza war to end.
From the Racket News
Scenes from a No Kings rally
I’m not a big fan of crowds. I’m not generally a protester. My son in the military was on leave and Saturday was his last day home. I could think of a lot of excuses to stay home and not go to my local No Kings rally.
In the end, I woke up early and the rest of of the house was asleep so I decided to put in an appearance, at least for a while. With the October 18 rallies touted as being the largest nationwide demonstration in American history and the fact that I had encouraged others to take part, I knew I’d regret it if I didn’t get out.
I’m not a liberal or a leftist, although I will confess to being anti-fascist as well as an anti-communist. I’m a conservative whose views on the issues are mostly unchanged changed since I showed up for some of the earliest Tea Party rallies back in 2010. My only other experience at demonstrations was a silent pro-life/anti-abortion vigil sponsored by a church I attended many years ago.
It occurred to me this morning that the No Kings message is very similar to the Tea Party message. Both movements are about resisting government overreach and authoritarian executives. The difference is that the parties have largely changed positions as the occupant of the Oval Office has changed, as well as the fact that Trump’s abuse of executive power far exceeds anything Obama ever did.
Many of my former Tea Party associates are now quite happy to have a president bend and shred the Constitution and other laws because they agree with his goals (or what they think his goals are). It’s a classic case of the ends justifying the means in their minds.
What both sides miss is that the Constitution and our body of law are there to protect us all. They are not obstacles to be dismantled on the way to forcing partisan will on the other side. They are guardrails to preserve our Republic and ensure that no president becomes a king. Many of these guardrails have already been removed.
So, I went to the No Kings rally in my town, not sure what to expect. The crowd was larger than I expected with several hundred happy, friendly, polite people of all ages and ethnicities. There were a few people who looked stereotypically leftist, but most looked like people from next door, although some wore costumes. There was a unicorn, a knight, and a man in colonial garb, which may be what made me think of the Tea Party.
If these were radicals, they were disappointingly so. There were no black-garbed Antifa hoodies or people yelling at the few police officers present. Members of the crowd waved as cars went by and honked their support.
Three Trump supporters, one of whom was open-carrying a pistol, staged a small counterprotest and were almost uniformly ignored by the crowd. This stands in contrast to the large number of Trump supporters that I saw heckling Harris supporters outside a rally headlined by Tim Walz before the election.
Likewise, there was a small (two or three people that I could tell) contingent from the Democratic Socialists of Georgia. They had set up a table, but were likewise being ignored by the crowd. I did think the sign with their logo, which prominently featured a possum, was amusing but I didn’t take a picture.
At this Georgia rally, both the demonstrators and the counter-protesters had signs that referenced Christianity. One of the first things I saw as I approached was a woman leading attendees in singing “This Little Light of Mine,” an old Bible School song. There were also lots of American flags.
I won’t say the rally was exciting. There were a few speakers and people who led the crowd in songs, such as Bob Marley’s “Get Up, Stand Up,” and a variety of chants. My personal favorite was something like “Measles, COVID, and the flu, this is Trump’s health plan for you.” That one passes the fact check.
For me, the rally wasn’t about being entertained, although I had a good time mingling with the crowd and taking pictures of some of the more notable costumes and clever signs. It was about showing up and exercising my right to tell the country that I do not support what the Trump Administration is doing. I showed up because if we don’t exercise our First Amendment rights now, we may not be able to in another few years.
In the interest of full disclosure, I did end up leaving the rally early to spend time with my son before he had to fly out. My purpose was not to be there from beginning to end, but to stand up and be counted.
Benjamin Franklin famously said that our government was “a Republic, if you can keep it.” Today, we are perilously close to losing it.
After years of executive expansion by both sides, Trump and his MAGA supporters have kicked the power grab into overdrive. Even the Wall Street Journal noted that White House staffers “joke that they are ruling Congress with an ‘iron fist,’” while Steve Bannon compares the legislative body to the powerless Russian Duma. Neither is what the Framers intended.
No Kings is about preserving the Republic and our constitutional freedoms for Americans of both or even no parties. At its heart, it’s an American movement that hearkens back to our revolutionary roots.
Preserving the freedom that patriots have fought and died for since 1776, that, far more than empowering an authoritarian, even if you happen to agree with his ideology, is patriotism.
