Thursday, July 22, 2021

McCarthy surrenders January 6 commission to Pelosi

 Yesterday saw the most recent development in the continuing saga of the January 6 commission. When we last checked in with the commission, Speaker Pelosi had appointed Republican Liz Cheney to the body and Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy was being left to appoint five additional members. Well, yesterday McCarthy made his picks and it wasn’t pretty.

McCarthy’s picks included Jim Banks of Indiana, Jim Jordan of Ohio, Rodney Davis of Illinois, Kelly Armstrong of North Dakota, and freshman Troy Nehls of Texas. You may not recognize many of these names, but two of his appointments show how utterly unseriously McCarthy is taking the House investigation.

Photo credit: Tyler Merbler/Wikimedia

While neither Jim Jordan nor Jim Banks spoke at the “Stop the Steal” rally on January 6, both were among the 121 House Republicans who voted to reject the Electoral College vote tallies. Keep in mind that this vote was taken after the attack on the Capitol by President Trump’s supporters.

At least McCarthy didn’t name January 6 rally speakers like Paul Gosar and Mo Brooks to the commission.

Predictably, Speaker Pelosi used the veto power she was granted by the House resolution to refuse to seat Jordan and Banks. Keep in mind that Pelosi is only able to exercise this power because Senate Republicans refused to empower a more evenhanded, bipartisan-backed commission. Rather than killing the investigation entirely, McConnell and the Senate GOP allowed the House to impanel its own investigation, an investigation over which Pelosi has much more control.

Citing “concern about statements made and actions taken by these Members,” Pelosi said in a statement that she was rejecting Jordan and Banks but was “prepared to appoint Representatives Rodney Davis, Kelly Armstrong, and Troy Nehls.”

In response, McCarthy decided to withdraw the other three Republican appointees from the commission. My guess is that what he wanted all along was an excuse not to participate.

"Republicans will not be party to their sham process and will instead pursue our own investigation of the facts,” McCarthy said in a statement.

While there is some speculation that Republicans will open a separate, parallel partisan investigation, McCarthy’s decision to surrender the House investigation to Nancy Pelosi has opened up an opportunity for the speaker to appoint other Trump-critical Republicans to the panel. Politico is reporting today that Pelosi is considering the addition of Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) and former Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-Va.) to replace McCarthy’s picks.

Essentially what happened is that McCarthy attempted to take his ball and his friends and go home, not realizing that the other team is quite content to continue playing with their own ball. Some of McCarthy’s friends even decided to stay and play.

Quitting the commission is a textbook example of cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face because Republicans are likely to get the worst-case scenario. Nancy Pelosi’s picks dominate the commission, but the investigation will still be bipartisan so claims that the inquiry is a partisan sham will fall flat… at least outside the GOP. The Republicans on the commission will be committed to uncovered the truth rather than covering for Donald Trump and his allies and attacking the process as they did during impeachment. The resulting serious look at the insurrection and its precipitating events will be good for the country, sunlight is the best disinfectant, but it won’t be good for the Republican Party.

A few days ago, I wrote, “These days, you can’t get 74 percent of Americans to agree on anything” except DACA. Well, make that two things. The other area of agreement is that there is more to the January 6 insurrection than meets the eye. A recent CBS News poll found that 72 percent (74 percent is within the poll’s 2.4-point margin of error) of Americans believe that “there is more to learn” about the attack on the Capitol.

Now, I’m not going to say that most Republicans support what happened on January 6. In fact, the poll shows that 74 percent of Republicans disapprove of the actions of the Capitol rioters. I view that as an encouraging sign.

However, I do think that most Republicans want January 6 to go away. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out why.

Sixty-seven percent of Americans believe that the rioters were trying to overturn the election results and 56 percent call the incident an “insurrection,” but these numbers are halved for Republicans. About half of Republicans consider the insurrection to be “patriotism” and “defending freedom” (which doesn’t square with the belief of some Republicans that Antifa was responsible). The party is badly out of step with the country on the issue.

Across the board, 66 percent believe that democracy and the rule of law are threatened. This number is similar for Republicans, Democrats, and independents, but my guess is that the different groups see different threats. Republicans and Democrats obviously consider each other to be a threat to democracy, but I’ll wager that most independents are probably casting a wary eye at the GOP after January 6 (and not to mention after four years of Trump).

To the mistrust and resentment being heaped upon the Republican Party n general for the actions of a small number of its members on January 6, we must add the fact that no small number of elected Republicans showed support for the “Stop the Steal” movement between Election Day and January 6. Even after the attack on the Capitol, more than half of congressional Republicans voted to reject the outcome of the Electoral College. Most have never expressed remorse or recanted these positions. It’s no wonder that Republicans want to forget January 6.

And it’s no wonder that Democrats won’t let them. Two Republican scalps have already been taken since November 3. Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler were the odds-on favorites in the Georgia runoff after winning pluralities in the general election. Nevertheless, President Trump’s stolen election claims became an albatross around their necks and the pair eventually went down to defeat.

Democrats hope to repeat this pattern and Republican House incumbents constitute a target-rich environment for challengers. This s especially true since Donald Trump and his base prevent vulnerable incumbents from tacking to the center.

Whether you are a Republican or not, it should be apparent that Kevin McCarthy’s handling of the January 6 commission has been an epic self-own. First, the Republican leadership kills the bipartisan commission, which enables Pelosi to create a House alternative over which she can exercise control. Then, McCarthy fires Liz Cheney from her leadership position, which frees her to speak out even more. Next, Pelosi taps Cheney to be a token principled Republican on the commission. Then McCarthy ends up removing all other Republican voices from the body, which enables Pelosi to add more anti-Trump Republicans. This ensures not only that the outcome will be unfavorable to Republicans but that there will be no distracting antics as there were during President Trump’s impeachment hearings.

Whether you support or oppose the commission, McCarthy has made a hash of things. For those who support the commission, he is attempting to obfuscate and stonewall the investigation into a very dark day in American history. If you oppose the commission, he not only failed to block the investigation, he has managed to put it entirely into Nancy Pelosi’s hands where Republican leaders will have no say in the final product. On either basis, McCarthy has proven himself incompetent and unfit to lead.

I support the January 6 commission. I would have preferred a bipartisan (or better yet, a nonpartisan) commission, but I’ll take what I can get. We need an investigation that will pull threads and follow them to see where they lead, even if the outcome isn’t necessarily a criminal conviction. We need to know whether elements of the government were involved in the attack and, if so, what that involvement entailed and how high up the involvement went.

You can count me among those Americans who believe that our democracy is threatened by the elements of the Republican Party that carried out the January 6 insurrection. These people shouldn’t be allowed to hide behind a veneer of patriotism and partisanship. They should be exposed and shamed for their actions.

Even if public shaming is the only justice that the instigators ever receive for their roles in fomenting the attack on the Constitution and the credibility of our most basic institution, free and fair elections, that small measure of justice should be pursued with vigor. Voters should be reminded every time the architects of January 6 stand for election that they cannot be trusted with power.

Never forget January 6 and never allow it to be repeated. And when the House investigation spills the ugly details of that day, Republicans should remember that Kevin McCarthy made it possible.

From the Racket

Monday, July 19, 2021

Mr. Trump, tell your followers to get vaccinated.

 I was trying to decide what to write about when I saw the latest missive from the Former Guy. I know some people don’t like to see me criticize Donald Trump while others do. Personally, I’d prefer to move on, but if Mr. Trump and the Republicans won’t move on then how can the rest of the country?

Anyway, here is Mr. Trump’s latest non-tweet:

It is true that President Biden’s vaccine push is behind schedule, but the reason for that is largely because Trump and the Republicans have spent much of the past year minimizing the danger of the virus and undermining faith in the vaccines. Those, by the way, are the same vaccines that Trump claims to have helped to develop by virtue of Operation Warp Speed.

Trump desperately wants to have it both ways. He wants to take credit for developing the vaccines while simultaneously celebrating the fact that many Americans don’t trust his handiwork.

Polling shows that Republicans are much more hesitant and skeptical about the vaccines than Democrats and independents. In June, Kaiser found that 43 percent of Republicans are taking a wait-and-see attitude about the vaccines or are outright refusing to get vaccinated without a mandate (compared to 12 percent of Democrats). Almost 40 percent of Republicans live in totally unvaccinated households (compared to 10 percent of Democrats).

To be fair, anti-vaxxers are not exclusively Republicans. Before the pandemic, progressives were prominent members of the early anti-vax movement. Even during the Coronavirus pandemic, there were many vaccine doubters on the left who preached that a vaccine created by Donald Trump was not safe. People like this guy:

But that was 2020 and we’ve come a long way from the point where Mike Pence defended the COVID vaccines to a skeptical Kamala Harris in the vice-presidential debate.

This is 2021. And in 2021, it is Republicans who represent one of the largest groups of vaccine holdouts. (Ironically, the only larger group in the Kaiser poll is “uninsured under age 65.” If you are uninsured, you should definitely get the vaccine because a) it’s free and b) the average COVID hospital bill for an uninsured 20-year-old is $68,261. The bill can still run into tens of thousands of dollars for patients with insurance.)

Over the past few months, I’ve come to the conclusion that we are not going to reach herd immunity because so many Americans are afraid of the vaccines. While no one is certain exactly what level of national immunity is required for herd immunity, estimates are typically in the 70 to 90 percent range. At this point, only 56 percent of the US population has even received one vaccine dose. Fewer than half are fully vaccinated and the rate of vaccinations is slowing, even as the more dangerous Delta variant spreads throughout the country.

President Trump could do the country and his base a great service by helping to convince his followers to get vaccinated. After all, the president and First Lady got their own vaccinations before they left the White House last January (and Ron DeSantis is also vaccinated by the way). Both Trumps tested positive for COVID-19 in October 2020. The New York Times reported in February 2021 that Mr. Trump’s case was far more serious than previously known with his blood oxygen levels falling below 89 percent. The president came close to being placed on a ventilator, at which point the odds of survival fall dramatically.

I am rehashing all this to say that the Trumps should know how serious COVID-19 can be. They should be willing to speak out and tell their fans that the vaccines are safe. They should tell Republicans that they got the vaccine themselves and lived to tell the tale. If it’s safe for Donald Trump to get vaccinated, it’s safe for you.

There is a logical inconsistency in celebrating Mr. Trump for his role in helping to bring the vaccines to the world in record-breaking time and then fearing to take that very life-saving drug. If Donald Trump did a good thing in helping to speed the vaccine development and deployment, then support his work by getting vaccinated. If you believe he did a bad thing then at least be consistent enough to hold him accountable.

People say that they like Donald Trump because he cares about the little people. I’m skeptical. If Donald Trump truly cared about his followers, he would do the right thing and advise them to go right down to the local drugstore (you know, the one where you’ve gotten medicine - not poison - for years) and get jabbed. That would be the right thing to do.

Instead, for whatever reasons he uses to justify his behavior, Mr. Trump is willing to risk the lives, health, and financial well-being of his supporters by keeping his silence. Mr. Trump obviously knows the truth that vaccines are much safer and lower risk than a possible exposure to COVID-19 but apparently places a higher priority on other things. Things like embarrassing Joe Biden or not revealing to his followers that has been dishonest with them all along.

I can only speculate as to why Mr. Trump keeps his vaccination status a secret. I do, however, think it says a lot about his character that he is willing to take credit for the vaccines yet still refuses to endorse their use.

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There is some additional information on the Facebook issue that I wrote about over the weekend. The Washington Post is reporting that the list of 12 Facebook accounts that allegedly produce 65 percent of anti-vaccine misinformation was from a report by the Center for Countering Digital Hate. The report is available online here.

The revelation that the source of the list and the statistic was from a nongovernmental organization rather than an agency like the NSA or FBI is a blow to Peter Doocy’s contention that the Administration is spying on the Facebook pages of American anti-vaxxers.

As I write this, about half of the 12 most wanted appear to still be present on Facebook. Several of the pages appear to have been removed, and I have to wonder, as I look at some of the other pages, how some of these people have evaded Facebook’s notorious algorithm for so long.

It is also worth noting that Facebook’s Terms of Service do stipulate that “You may not use our Products to do or share anything that is unlawful, misleading, discriminatory or fraudulent.”


Finally, here’s a shout-out to a Republican who is doing the right thing. I’d like to commend Sean Hannity for telling his listeners to take COVID-19 seriously and to talk to their personal doctors about getting vaccinated. Listen here:

Hannity follows the hosts of “Fox and Friends” who revealed in May that they had been vaccinated.

Tucker Carlson refuses to say whether he has received the vaccine or not. In June, he told a Time reporter that asking about his vaccination status was “super vulgar.” That likely means that the vax-alarmist Carlson is vaccinated and just doesn’t want to admit it.

Additionally, Ryan Grim of The Hill reported that Fox News has implemented a vaccine passport system for employees. A Fox employee provided a copy of an email that confirmed they had provided vaccination information. The email says that the employee will be required to show the confirmation before entering “Fox work locations.”

Saturday, July 17, 2021

Biden behaving badly?

 The Biden Administration has been in the news in the past few days for two stories involving Facebook. Since there is a lot of misinformation and a great many hot takes based on brief sound bites, I want to delve a bit deeper into both stories.

The first story involves President Biden’s response to a reporter who asked, “What’s your message to platforms like Facebook?”

The Hill has the full video of the question and the president’s answer:

President Biden responds, “They’re killing people. I mean they’re really - Look, the only pandemic we have is among the unvaccinated… and they’re killing people.”

The context of the question is not clear from the clip but presumably is meant to address the second story in which White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki’s statement that the White House was “flagging problematic posts for Facebook that spread disinformation.” Let’s take a closer look at what Psaki said and then, as the press secretary is fond of saying, we’ll circle back to Biden.

Psaki’s statement is troubling enough but it does not tell us much. What kind of posts does the White House consider “problematic?” What action does Facebook take? Is there any penalty for the Facebook users involved?

The Washington Times provides more context on the matter, such as Psaki’s full statement, in which she said, “In terms of actions we are taking or that we’re working to take, I should say, from the federal government, we’ve increased disinformation research and tracking within the surgeon general’s office. We're flagging problematic posts for Facebook that spread disinformation.”

Per the Times, Psaki added that the Administration was “working with doctors, medical professionals, and experts who are popular with their audiences” to get them “accurate information and boost trusted content.”

I don’t have a problem with the government combatting misinformation. In a national emergency, part of the role of government is to ensure that truthful, relevant information is being spread. This is especially important in situations where misinformation can get people killed. To this point, we have not had an indication that the government is forcing the removal of misinformation but only that “trusted” information is being “boosted.”

But wait, there’s more. The Voice of America’s bureau chief quoted Psaki as saying that Facebook “needs to move quickly” to remove misinformation posts. So, is the government coordinating the removal of posts with Facebook?

The answer to that question may be found in an exchange with Psaki and Fox News reporter, Peter Doocy, who asked, “For how long has the Administration been spying on people’s Facebook profiles looking for vaccine misinformation?”

In terms of journalism, Doocy’s question is right up there with “When did you stop beating your wife?” It isn’t so much a question as an accusation and an opinion.

Let me just point out that if you are posting on social media, you have no expectation of privacy for your comments. The very term “social media” reflects the public nature of the online conversation. Almost anyone can see what you post and join the conversation.

You should assume that anything that you post online will one day become public and associated with your name. That’s a powerful incentive to act nice (and sane), even in the relative obscurity and anonymity of the online world. Another term for this is having good character.

In the course of the conversation, Doocy also asked whether “there are any concerns that the things you are trying to block or have taken down might someday turn out to be [true]?”

“We don’t take anything down,” Psaki answered. “We don’t block anything. Facebook and any private sector company make decisions about what should be on their platform.”

“Our point is that there is information that is leading to people not taking the vaccine and people are dying as a result, and we have a responsibility as a public health matter to raise that issue,” Psaki continued.

To me, what seems to be happening is that the White House flags posts with misinformation for Facebook to review. Facebook makes the decision whether to limit the post’s reach, add a warning label, remove it, or ignore it.

What are the First Amendment implications of this activity? I’m not a constitutional scholar (although I play one on the internet), but it seems to be a gray area. We do know that the First Amendment is not absolute. There are permissible restrictions on the right to free speech such as obscenity, threats, and ordinances that restrict the time and place of speech.

As I was researching this article, the example that kept coming to mind was “Loose Lips Sink Ships,” the campaign against careless talk during World War II. In fact, the US government did much more than try to discourage loose lips, there was actually an official Office of Censorship that limited what the media was allowed to print and broadcast.

Obviously, there is precedent for federal limits on the First Amendment. The questions at this point are whether the government’s actions are permissible under the circumstances, keeping in mind that the circumstances include a deadly virus that is still infecting tens of thousands of Americans every day.

As I’ve pointed out in the past, the freedom of speech does not include the freedom to access social media platforms. Further, putting warning labels on the content or limiting its reach wouldn’t seem to be a free speech violation because the speech is still being made. There is no right to a soapbox and a megaphone.

The picture does change a bit, however, when it appears that the government may be directing the social media companies to limit or block certain content. Even if the government does not pressure or coerce the companies to limit the content, the mere existence of the White House’s flags may have an impermissible chilling effect on free speech.

The flip side is that Psaki is also correct that the government has a legal and compelling public health interest in limiting the spread of misinformation about vaccines and the virus. We’ve seen in Supreme Court rulings over the past year that the Court will often defer to regulators on a temporary basis to limit the impact of an emergency.

My best guess is that this is where the courts would fall on the issue of flagging social media posts for misinformation. The government is not censoring speech and it isn’t clear how closely Facebook’s actions correlate to the White House flags. Given Biden’s statement, the White House seems less than thrilled with the company’s cooperation, which is evidence against close collusion between government and social media. The 12 users that Psaki says are the source of most of the misinformation seem to still be posting away. Further, an advisory by the surgeon general on the subject of pandemic misinformation does not ask Americans to censor bad information but to slow its spread.

That brings us back to President Biden’s statement. What the president said is mostly true and defensible. Today the pandemic is a pandemic only among the unvaccinated as I discussed a few days ago. The vaccines are safe and highly effective and the vast majority of new cases and deaths are among people who have not received a vaccine.

But the target of Biden’s comment is wrong. The “they” he should be blaming is not Facebook but the cottage industry of conspiracy theorists and cynical politicians who are manufacturing and spreading lies to scare people away from a life-saving vaccine.

From the Racket

Friday, July 16, 2021

Delta, Delta, Delta will infect ya ('fectya, 'fectya)

 Okay, so maybe the title is somewhat of a strained pun based on a Saturday Night live deep track. but the Coronavirus Delta variant is proving to be a growing problem. It has been quite a while since I wrote about Coronavirus and now the new surge deserves some attention.

To make identification simpler, scientists started identifying important variants of COVID-19 by Greek letters a few weeks ago. This doesn’t simplify things as much as you might think since most of us don’t know the Greek alphabet, but “Alpha” and “Delta” are much easier to remember than a string of letters and numbers.

The Delta variant, which is technically identified as “B.1.617.2,” was first identified in India in December 2020. Coincidentally, Delta is the fourth letter of the Greek alphabet, which corresponds to the fourth letter of the English alphabet. If you are familiar with the phonetic alphabet, Delta is also the fourth letter in that sequence, but even though Delta is the fourth letter of both the Greek and phonetic alphabets, the systems are otherwise almost completely different.

Now that we’ve got that settled, Delta is the fourth variant of concern to emerge as COVID-19 mutated. Alpha, also known as B.1.1.7, emerged in the UK in November 2020 and was 50 percent more contagious than the original strain. Delta is estimated to be 50 percent more contagious than Alpha. Math aside, that means that Delta spreads much more readily than the OG version of COVID.

Since Delta was first identified in the US in early March, it has increased to account for about 10 percent of COVID cases in early June and more than 50 percent today reports Healthline. This is a good illustration of a literal viral spread.

The good news is that all three of the common US vaccines seem to be effective against Delta per Yale Medicine. Early indications are that reinfection is also rare for people who were infected with COVID-19 in the past. The bad news is that a new subvariant, Delta Plus or B.1.617.2.1, which also originated in India and has already been identified in the US, is potentially even more contagious and more lethal says CBS News. Delta Plus is so new that vaccine effectiveness has not been verified.

The big problem with Delta is that so many people, both in the US and around the world, have not been vaccinated. The latest numbers from Our World In Data show that 55 percent of Americans have received at least one vaccine dose while 48 percent are fully vaccinated. Many other countries have significantly lower vaccination rates, mostly due to the lack of available vaccines, which makes them even more vulnerable to Delta.

Further, the new Delta surge disproportionately affects younger Americans. This is probably because younger people are less likely to be concerned enough about the virus to get vaccinated. As a result, otherwise healthy 20- and 30-year-olds are being hospitalized. Even some children, who are not approved for the vaccine yet, are encountering serious illnesses due to the new strain.

This is important because almost all new COVID deaths and hospitalizations are among the unvaccinated. An Associated Press analysis of government data found that only about 1.1 percent of Coronvirus hospitalizations in May were among people who had been vaccinated. Vaccinated individuals accounted for only 0.8 percent of COVID deaths that month. By way of comparison, only three deaths in total have been attributable to the vaccines.

The vaccines work. And they are safe.

Since the outbreak of the pandemic, COVID skeptics have claimed that there was a 99 percent survival rate and that mitigations and vaccines were therefore unnecessary. As I’ve pointed out in the past, this does not consider the risk of serious complications such as permanent lung, heart, and brain damage and “long COVID” syndrome as well as expensive hospital bills even if you survive.

Further, there is a strong correlation between state case counts and vaccination rates. While new COVID cases are once again on the rise around most of the country, it is primarily the states with the lowest vaccination rates that are seeing the largest increases. Thankfully, the current surge is smaller than previous surges, likely due to the smaller pool of vulnerable hosts.

The 99-percent statistic has now been flipped on its head. If you get vaccinated, you now have only about a one-percent chance of even getting seriously ill with COVID-19 and less than a one-percent chance of dying. Those are good odds.

So what would be the problem with taking your chances and not getting vaccinated? You are only risking your own life, right?

Not exactly. Aside from the fact that you’d also be risking the lives of those around you who are unvaccinated as well as the well-being of those who love and depend on you, there is also the risk that allowing the virus to breed in a large unvaccinated population could produce new variants that are resistant to current vaccines.

The math is simple, The higher the number of replications of the virus, the higher the number of mutations. The higher the number of mutations, the greater the likelihood that a new variant with dangerous characteristics will emerge.

The effectiveness and importance of the COVID vaccines are why it is so infuriating that so many people are actively trying to discourage and scare people away from being vaccinated. People who demonize the vaccines are quite literally getting people killed, which is hardly a pro-life thing to do.

If you’re vaccinated, you’re pretty safe from COVID-19 and the Delta variant - at least for now. That doesn’t necessarily mean you should throw caution to the wind, but it doesn’t mean that you need to be masking everywhere either. Basic precautions such as not getting in someone’s face, especially if you think they may be unvaccinated, and frequent handwashing will give you an added measure of safety. And let’s face it, those are good practices anyway.

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Speaking of things that are infuriating, The Tennessean reports that the Volunteer State will no longer be actively seeking minors to volunteer to be vaccinated. The report cites “pressure from Republican state lawmakers” in the Tennessee Department of Health’s decision to halt all adolescent vaccine outreach.

Yes, you read that right. The Tennessee DOH won’t be doing vaccine outreach for any vaccines, not just the Coronavirus shots. If this seems like an insane response to rampant conspiracy theories and disinformation to you, then you are not alone.

Further, CNN reports that Tennessee’s medical director of vaccine-preventable diseases and immunization was fired earlier this week after issuing a memo that detailed the state’s 34-year-old "mature minor doctrine." The policy allowed doctors to determine if minors had the legal capacity to request vaccines for themselves in the event that their parents refused to consent.  

If the Tennessee policies are not reversed, the number of vaccinations will undoubtedly plummet and needless deaths from a multitude of diseases will increase. Even before the Coronavirus pandemic, the anti-vaccination movement had led to a resurgence in diseases such as measles.

The trend of the Republican Party in embracing conspiracy theories and quackery is not a new one, but it is becoming more dangerous when legislators begin to overrule doctors and actively discourage safe and effective vaccines.

From the Racket