Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, I have watched the conflict in both fascination and horror. A significant part of my interest stems from the photogenic nature of the war. From the earliest days of the conflict, we saw dramatic pictures and video of the fighting, while Ukrainian farmers stealing Russian armored vehicles became a meme. In subsequent years, a lot of the video came from drones.
Just over a year ago, I wrote about how the war has led to an explosion (pun intended) in combat drone technology. Modern drones are a lot like something out of the movies and can be reminiscent of the Terminator. Footage of drones chasing down Russian soldiers reminds me a lot of an old movie that I saw on television as an 80s kid.
“Runaway” featured Tom Selleck as the hero and KISS’s Gene Simmons as the villain. I watched the trailer as I was writing this, and it seems strikingly prescient for a film from 40 years ago, as you’d expect from something written by Michael Crichton. The evil Simmons would fire a small heat-seeker from his pistol, and the point of view would then shift to the perspective of this proto-drone as it chased its target through city streets. That old sci-fi movie has come to life on Ukrainian battlefields.
Over the weekend, Ukrainian drone pilots did even better, scoring one of the largest victories of the war. I woke up on Sunday to images of Ukrainian drones flying down the flight lines of Russian air bases, destroying aircraft. Operation Spider Web is estimated to have knocked out about a third of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet at four airbases across Russia, some thousands of kilometers from the front lines.
As the BBC explains, the attack was a long time in the making. The Ukrainians built special modular homes or sheds that contained a total of 117 remote-controlled drones and smuggled them into Russia on semi-trucks. The trucks parked outside the airbases, and then the drone attacks were launched simultaneously through retractable roofs in the buildings. The Daily Mail reports that the truck drivers had no idea that they were part of a secret plot to kneecap Russia’s bomber forces, which have been used to target Ukrainian cities but also have a nuclear mission.
The extent of the damage is unclear, but Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) claimed that 41 planes had been damaged or destroyed. Military bloggers using open source information have identified the targets as including TU-160M Blackjacks, Russia’s newest and most capable strategic bomber, TU-22 Backfires, similar to our B-1 Lancer, and TU-95 Bears, which have their roots in the US B-29 from WWII but are capable of reconnaissance and launching cruise missiles. Russia is also reported to have lost an A-50 AWACS radar plane. Many of the losses are irreplaceable since the planes are out of production. It is an attack that has been compared to Pearl Harbor, but Russia started this war three years ago, so they should not have been surprised.
But that made me think. We are not the only ones watching Ukraine wreak havoc on the Russian war machine. I am certain that other countries like Iran and China are watching as well. It’s easy to see what cheap, low-tech drones can do to a multi-billion-dollar air force in a matter of minutes.
I sincerely hope that Defense Secretary Hegspeth is also watching, between doing pushups and removing references to women and minorities from DOD websites. I’m old enough to remember that a lot of the same people who call our military too soft and woke are the same people who were saying that the Russian military was the height of professionalism and would subdue Ukraine within days.
I am far more concerned about whether our adversaries have the capability to launch their own Operation Spider Web attacks on the US military than whether the military celebrates the achievements of the Tuskegee Airmen, Navajo Code talkers, and pioneering military women. If the left lost its focus when it came to turning national defense into a sociology experiment, so has the right.
I want to know what we are doing to defend against potential drone attacks. Do we have systems in place at military bases to shoot down hostile drones? Can they be disabled through electronic warfare? Are we ready to take these defensive actions at a moment’s notice on a Sunday morning?
And what about the potential use of drones as weapons of terror? A few drones packed with explosives and shrapnel could be devastating to soft targets filled with civilians. Imagine Gene Simmons flying a few dozen such remotely-piloted weapons into a sports stadium.
We are laughing and celebrating along with the Ukrainians this week. At least those of us who aren’t pro-Putin are. Many in MAGA world seem apoplectic about Russia’s humiliation, and Trump has not commented on the attack. Trump may be miffed that Ukraine launched the attack without telling him, but you can hardly blame them. Telling the Trump Administration would be akin to telling Vladimir Putin.
Next week, however, might be a different story. Next week, we might be looking at our own Pearl Harbor or September 11 Part Deux as drones rise up to attack our bases or cities. The Ukraine war footage is fascinating to watch, but it’s also a harbinger of what may be to come, even if Skynet does not become self-aware in the near future.
It’s a dangerous world made more dangerous by incompetent leaders in our own government. While Trump is golfing, Noem is posing for law enforcement cosplay photos, Musk is taking an axe to entire federal agencies, and Hegspeth is doing pushups or whatever, I sincerely hope that there are level-headed career professionals who haven’t been fired or driven into deep cover who are bearing the weight of the defense of the nation on their shoulders. Traditionally, it has been career soldiers, diplomats, and bureaucrats who kept the government on track as political appointees came and went, but a lot of those people are being replaced with Trump loyalists.
Operation Spider Web was a great victory for Ukraine (and an almost bloodless one), but it should be a wake-up call for us. Elections matter, and so does competence.
