Donald Trump Defends The COVID Vaccine… Finally

 President Trump has come out swinging after Democratic vice-presidential candidate Kamala Harris expressed doubt about a potential Coronavirus vaccine last week. The president charged that Harris and Democratic nominee Joe Biden were engaging in “reckless anti-vaccine rhetoric” and “endangering lives.” To some extent, he has a point but that’s not the full story.

The kerfuffle began last week when CNN released a clip of Harris saying, “I will say that I would not trust Donald Trump and it would have to be a credible source of information that talks about the efficacy and the reliability of whatever he’s talking about. I will not take his word for it.”

Or did it?

Maybe it started last month when President Trump announced a push to approve a vaccine before Election Day or earlier last week when the CDC advised states to be ready to begin distribution of a vaccine by November 1.

Or did it?

Maybe the vaccine brouhaha began way back in the spring when right-wing conspiracy theorists started claiming that Bill Gates was planning to use a COVID vaccine as a Trojan horse for either mind control or population control (or both) depending on which version of the conspiracy they embraced. Like the underwear gnomes from South Park, the plan by Gates and/or the Illuminati/New World Order/whatever was generally explained like this:

Step One – Vaccine and/or mask mandates
Step Two – ???????????
Step Three – Fascism… Or communism… Or both.

I do applaud the president for defending the upcoming vaccine. His statement that a vaccine would be “very safe and very effective” was much needed. If there was any problem with this part of the statement, it was that it was five months in coming.

“The people will be happy, the people of the world will be happy,” the president added.

If you doubt the anti-vaccine hysteria surrounding a Coronavirus vaccine, you need only look to an August Gallup poll which found that 35 percent of Americans would not get an FDA-approved COVID vaccine, even if it was offered at no cost. The kicker is that Republicans were the only group in which a majority opposed the vaccine (53-47 percent).

But, while Kamala Harris’s words did not help the matter, it is the president’s own rush to approve a vaccine that has led at least some of the non-conspiracy crowd to doubt the safety and the efficacy of vaccine that bypasses the normal trials and approvals process.

Problems that come from bypassing safeguards, not mind-control chips, are the real danger of a vaccine. In 1976, the federal government rushed a swine flu vaccine in response to an expected epidemic. Smithsonian magazine notes politics became prevalent and science took a backseat. In the end, the vaccine was linked to increased risk for a rare neurological disorder, and the fiasco contributed to skepticism about vaccines that lasts to this day.

Even more recently, last spring Coronavirus test kits were in short supply because of a problem in the manufacturing process. The Washington Post reported that the problems were due to contamination at a CDC lab that “violated sound manufacturing practices.”

Cutting corners can cost lives. This is true both in the direct sense that an untested vaccine could be dangerous and indirectly due to time lost in fixing problems that would have been revealed earlier by following established procedures. As my dad has been known to say, “You can make time to do it right or make time to do it over.”

To his credit, Joe Biden stepped up to quell vaccine fears. Fox News quoted Biden as saying, “If I could get a vaccine tomorrow I’d do it. If it cost me the election I’d do it. We need a vaccine and we need it now.”

“I would want to see what the scientists said,” Biden qualified.

But Biden had some sharp words for Trump as well, charging that the president was “playing with politics. He said so many things that aren’t true.”

“If we do have a really good vaccine people are going to be reluctant to take it,” Biden added, which is a true statement supported by the poll cited earlier.

So what to do? The obvious answer is to avoid politicizing the vaccine. President Trump should stand back and let the scientists and medical experts handle the matter. In the past, the FDA has said that it will not “cut corners” in vaccine trials, and Moncef Slaoui, the scientist heading the “Operation Warp Speed” vaccine effort said last week that a vaccine by November was “possible but very unlikely,” per the Washington Post.

It is when the president’s statements conflict with those of the scientists that it sets off alarm bells in many people’s heads. In medical matters, we should be listening to the medical experts and not the guy who suggested injecting disinfectants. If the president wants to undercut a vaccine panic among Democrats and non-Republicans, it is as simple as saying that no vaccine will be approved or deployed before the doctors say that it is ready. Mr. Trump should paraphrase the old wine commercial with the consistent message, “I will serve no vaccine before its time.”

In the meantime, if the president wants to help the fight against the pandemic, he can start talking more to his base about the need for masks, social distancing, and a vaccine. In the end, it is the president’s own supporters who are more likely to “just say no” to a COVID vaccine than Biden backers. Straight talk about the need for mitigations from a president loved for his “truth-telling” might go a long way with the right-wing conspiracy crowd.

Or it might not. The president took months to call on his supporters to wear a mask (and to wear one publicly himself). In truth, the president’s message has been inconsistent. In July, the president called wearing a mask “patriotic” but no masks were in sight at the August Republican National Convention, even though attendees were not socially distanced.

From my conversations with Trump supporters over the past few months, it doesn’t seem as if the president’s call for masks made much of an impression on his supporters. Republicans seem just as anti-mask after the president made his pitch as they were before with many wearing masks (often incorrectly) only when they are required.

The same may be true of the vaccine. The anti-vaxxer conspiracies may now be so ingrained into so many Republicans that even President Trump cannot reverse it at this point. (It should be noted that the president made anti-vaccine comments back in 2016.)

To test this theory, I asked several friends in a Facebook group whether the president’s defense of the vaccine. Of the people who responded at press time, none said that the president’s statement changed their mind about vaccines.

“I am not a fan of vaccines in the contemporary era,” Russ said. “Proven old-school vaccines we grew up with were time tested, but the modern vaccine feels rushed, pushed (as in media advertising) and generally come off as ‘sales pitchy.'”

“If big pharma had not grown into a ‘mega-plex’ industry I might feel differently,” he added. “If science had not become ‘doctrine’ and ‘dogma’ on most matters, I would feel differently. Industrial growth is bad for overall trust.”

“I’m not a fan of the president, nor will I be getting the vaccine,” Tracy stated.

“I support effective vaccines for illnesses that are necessary to be vaccinated against,” said Janice. “My jury is still out on COVID.”

Janice’s opinion is where a lot of people are. They aren’t necessarily against vaccines in general, but they do want to ensure that a Coronavirus vaccine is safe and effective before they take it. That underscores the need for President Trump and his medical experts to be on the same page with respect to the fact that the vaccine will not be given until it is fully tested and approved.

My plea to both President Trump and the Democrats is this: Don’t make this political. Let the scientists follow established guidelines and do their jobs.

Originally published on The Resurgent

IHME Predicts 410,000 COVID Deaths By January

 Apopular theory that I often hear from friends is that the Coronavirus pandemic will disappear after Election Day. Not so, says the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, which has been the premier forecaster for the pandemic in the US. A new model by the IHME shows that, rather than spontaneously disappearing, “The worst is yet to come.”

The Coronavirus caseload in the US seems to have plateaued once again, even though death rates remain high with a seven-day average of almost 1,000 deaths per day. As in the spring, the tendency for many is to assume that the worst is over and return to normal, but a number of factors are likely to result in a resurgence of the disease this fall and winter.

“The worst is yet to come. I don’t think perhaps that’s a surprise, although I think there’s a natural tendency as we’re a little bit in the Northern hemisphere summer, to think maybe the epidemic is going away,” Dr. Christopher Murray, director of IHME, said in a conference call reported by CNBC on Friday.

He added that there are “bleak times ahead in the Northern Hemisphere winter, and unfortunately we are not collectively doing everything we can to learn from the last five months.”

Disease prediction models draw a lot of criticism and scorn at the beginning of the pandemic last spring, but as scientists have learned more about COVID-19 the models have become more accurate. Back in May, I described a “model of models” which forecasted 110,000 virus deaths by June 6. This undercounted the actual number since the total on June 6 was 114,625 deaths. Likewise, in June the IHME predicted that there would be 200,000 Coronavirus deaths by October. With almost 1,000 deaths per day and three weeks to go, it looks as though that forecast will have been on the low side as well since the US has already recorded 193,302 deaths as of Labor Day.

The IHME released three different projections that show possible outcomes under different scenarios. The best-case scenario, which assumes universal masking and strict observation of social distancing, estimates that 288,380 Americans will die of COVID-19 by the end of the year. The worst-case scenario, based on the removal of social distancing restrictions and mask mandates, is a death toll of 620,028. The most likely scenario is in the middle with a death toll of 410,450.

The new forecast estimates an increase in the daily death rate “because of seasonality and declining vigilance of the public, to reach nearly 3,000 a day in December.” Currently, there are about 850 deaths per day in the US. The US previously approached 3,000 daily deaths in the dark days of April.  

“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” Dr. Murray said. “But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”

The global death toll, which currently stands at 881,000 people, is estimated to be 2.8 million by January 1. The best and worst-case scenarios range between two and four million.

The IHME model is based upon several assumptions. Among these are that people will become more willing to interact as new cases decline and that cooler weather will encourage people to stay indoors where the virus can spread more easily. Further, the cool, dry air of fall will allow the virus to live longer.

Even though COVID-19 transmission in the US has fallen since June, there are still about 40,000 new cases every day. This elevated but stable level could provide a springboard for yet another wave of infections if people let down their guard and forego mitigation strategies, just as the relaxation of social distancing in June led to a surge of cases in July.

“One of the challenges is as soon as things look good in the community, it’s tempting to say the virus is gone,” said Lauren Ancel Meyers, professor of integrative biology at the University of Texas at Austin, in the Washington Post. “What we really should be thinking is: How did we get to this better place? By being cautious and vigilant. And instead of relaxing, we should focus on the things that worked.”

The IHME model is one of the few long long-range forecasting tools. Many models only predict four to six weeks into the future. Some critics say that the number of variables considered over a long period of time makes long-term forecasting unreliable.

“Beyond [a few weeks], it’s all conjecture and guesswork because there are so many factors we just can’t predict and factors about transmission that truthfully scientists don’t understand very well yet,” Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious-disease expert and head of the modeling team at Columbia University, told the Post. “What happens in the next few months really depends on what we do as a society the next few weeks.”

One of the biggest variables is the impact of social distancing. In the Southern Hemisphere, where winter began in June, the annual influx of flu patients has not come this year for many countries per the Wall Street Journal. In many parts of the world, strict lockdowns not only seem to be preventing a surge of COVID-19 cases but also annual flu epidemics. With much of the US open, the winter in America might well bring a different result.

The most recent CDC forecast, which uses an “ensemble” of models, predicts that national death rates will decrease slightly but agrees with the IHME estimate of 200,000 to 211,000 US deaths by September 26. The CDC model, updated on September 3, does not look beyond four weeks into the future.

The IHME’s Dr. Murray defended the long-range forecast, saying that the best and worst case scenarios were tools intended to assist policymakers and help governments to avoid the worst-case scenario. He added that a second wave is likely to happen regardless of the exact timing and that decisions made now would affect the death toll in coming months.

Most experts seem to agree on that point.

As we’ve pointed out before, models are not ironclad predictions for the future. Instead, they are estimates based on assumptions about what will happen and how people will behave. As such, they are a cautionary tale for the future but changing behavior can change the outcome.

I would bookmark the IHME projection to refer back to around New Year’s Day in order to validate whether the forecast was accurate or not. In the meantime, the core lesson is that the crisis is not over. It is important that pandemic-weary Americans maintain mitigation strategies for at least another few months until a vaccine is ready. The difference between social distancing and wearing a mask and flouting these guidelines is likely to be tens of thousands of American lives.

Originally published on The Resurgent

The Dead End Election (Why Trump Must Lose)

 It is now less than two months from the election and early voting will start in many states in a matter of weeks. Many of my Resurgent colleagues have given their opinions on why Donald Trump should be re-elected despite what they acknowledge to be his numerous faults. I respectfully disagree with this view and would like to take this opportunity to explain why I believe that it is vitally important for the future of the United States that Donald Trump not be returned to the White House. The opinions I am expressing here do not reflect the opinions of everyone (and possibly anyone) else at The Resurgent.

Let me say from the start that, even though I was not a Trump supporter in 2016, I tried to be objective and give him the benefit of the doubt after his election. However, being objective did not mean that I was willing to change my core principles and beliefs as so many in the Republican Party did. The fact that I chose to leave the GOP in 2016 and become an independent may have helped me resist the pressure to adopt the new partisan positions that Trump laid out.

And make no mistake: Trump’s positions, whatever they may be on any given day, have replaced the core principles of the Republican Party. If you don’t believe it, just read what passes for the 2020 Republican platform. The document, which is officially titled, “Resolution Regarding the Republican Party Platform,” states, “The RNC has unanimously voted to forego the Convention Committee on Platform” this year in what may be the party’s only voluntary concession to social distancing. Instead, the party’s non-platform states that the platform committee “would have undoubtedly unanimously agreed to reassert the Party’s strong support for President Donald Trump and his Administration” and resolves

“That the Republican Party has and will continue to enthusiastically support the President’s America-first agenda.”

In other words, Donald Trump and the Republican Party are one and the same. Just as Democrats find little to no room for pro-lifers, Republicans have no room for Trump critics.

And President Trump has done much to be critical of. Any exhaustive list of the president’s problems would exceed the space available here so I’ll try to keep it brief and hit only the high points. Suffice it to say that Mr. Trump’s tenure in office has been a tale of widespread corruption, incompetence (including incompetent corruption), divisiveness, and abuses of power. It is the abuses of power and corruption that I believe are what make Donald Trump so dangerous to the foundations of the American Republic.

There is already a long list of Trump’s abuses of power as well Republican acquiescence to them. The list includes Robert Mueller’s revelations about Trump’s attempts to obstruct justice, the president’s repeated use of Executive Orders and national emergency declarations to circumvent the will of Congress, his attempts to use congressionally-appropriated military aid to ally being invaded by Russia to dig up campaign dirt on his likely opponent, and the firings of several Inspectors General who would not whitewash his administration’s unethical activities. Again, this is not an exhaustive list.   

These abuses of presidential power were defended by the President Trump on the grounds that Article II of the Constitution gives the president “the right to do whatever I want.” This is, of course, not true at all and would be shocking news to the Framers of the Constitution who had just won independence from a king with unlimited power and thought that they had crafted a document that specifically limited the power of the president.

Some Republicans have harrumphed at the idea of unlimited presidential power as well as the Justice Department opinion that sitting presidents cannot be indicted, an opinion that essentially puts the president above the law. Nevertheless, Republicans acted in lockstep with the White House to cover up President Trump’s abuses power during the impeachment process and almost unanimously looked the other way when it came time to vote, not just on impeachment, but on any attempts to rein in Mr. Trump and hold him accountable.   

At this point, it is very difficult for any Trump critic to justify a vote for any Republican. If you are bothered by Trump’s excesses, know that Republicans will do nothing to stop them and

“That the Republican Party has and will continue to enthusiastically support the President’s America-first agenda….”

As I attempt to briefly make the case against Donald Trump, it would be a glaring omission not to address the Trump Administration’s abysmal handling of the Coronavirus pandemic. To be sure, the pandemic would have been a disaster regardless of who was president and that some governors also bungled their pandemic responses, but President Trump needs to be held to account for the steady stream of bad decisions and misinformation that came from his Administration – often from Trump directly – since the virus hit the US in February and March.

The pandemic is the greatest crisis faced by the United States since the September 11 attacks of 2001 or the financial crisis of 2008. It was Trump’s chance to rise to the occasion and he failed miserably. The Atlantic published a detailed postmortem of the White House response to the early days of the crisis as well as a compendium of Trump’s lies, misstatements, and wishful thinking about the pandemic. When the chips were down and Americans needed a leader they could trust, Donald Trump talked about injecting disinfectants and floated the theory that the disease would magically disappear. Indeed, one of the Inspectors General fired by Trump worked for the Department of Health and Human Services and had just released a report critical of the Trump Administration’s handling of the pandemic shortly before her dismissal.

Trump’s mismanagement of the crisis continues after six months. After downplaying the threat of the virus for months, the Trump Administration is currently pushing scientists and regulators to cut corners and release a Coronavirus vaccine before Election Day, an artificial deadline that has no bearing on whether the vaccine will be tested or ready. In response, Moncef Slaoui, the immunologist heading the American vaccine effort, told Science magazine that the vaccine “needs to be absolutely shielded from the politics,” but

“RESOLVED, That the Republican Party has and will continue to enthusiastically support the President’s America-first agenda….”

Likewise, Trump’s accomplishments, including the economy, have been greatly exaggerated. In the case of the economy, the president’s trade war had devastated the manufacturing and farm sectors even before the pandemic hit. The tariff wars caused the US to enter a recession in February, several weeks before the onset of the pandemic lockdowns. The downturn associated with the pandemic provided convenient cover for Mr. Trump’s bad economic policies, which he has doubled down on as the nation tries to recover. In the meantime, China is experiencing an export boom. Nevertheless,

“The Republican Party has and will continue to enthusiastically support the President’s America-first agenda….”

A Trump loss would be good for the Republican Party albeit painful in the short term. As we have seen, Donald Trump has moved the GOP in the wrong direction. His antics have alienated so many voters across the country, particularly minorities, that no one (save the most deluded members of the MAGA base) seriously expects Trump to win a popular vote victory. Any Trump win would be dependent upon a fluke similar to his 2016 hat trick in the Electoral College. A party whose strategy acknowledges that a majority of voters will not support them is not a healthy party.

Rather than calling 2020 a Flight 93 or Titanic election, I like to use the analogy of making a wrong turn onto a dead-end road. The road might be nice and have pretty scenery but it won’t take you where you want to go. Sooner or later, you’re going to have to turn around and back track to get on the right path. The sooner you make that course correction, the better off you are. And that’s where Republicans are likely to be in two months: At a dead end. If the party can eke out a victory this year, they will just have further to backtrack in 2024.

Many of my Trump-critical friends argue that Trump should be re-elected because the Democrats are so bad. This Blue Party Bad argument is compelling, especially in light of this summer’s civil unrest, but it falls short on two points.

First, it ignores the fact that Democrats rallied to reject the radical wing of their party and picked the most stable, moderate, milquetoast candidate who had a chance of winning. To listen to Republicans, you would think that Bernie Sanders is the Democratic nominee, but that is not the case no matter how much Republican messaging seeks to conflate the two. Moderate Democratic voters, of which there seem to be many more now than four years ago (partly because many have deserted the GOP), specifically rejected the radical left.

Secondly, Blue Party Bad does not make Orange Man Good. I don’t agree with much of what the Democrats stand for, but at least they stand in opposition to unfettered executive power and corruption… for the moment. That would undoubtedly change with a Democrat in the Oval Office, which is why I hope the election results in a division of power between two parties, neither of whom can be trusted to wield it unilaterally.

Barack Obama told Vladimir Putin that he would have “more flexibility” after his last election. So too will President Trump, especially if Republicans retain control of Congress. A lawless president unconstrained by Congress and surrounded by yes-men could do irreparable damage to the foundations of American democracy. Four years of liberal policies would be bad but probably less damaging in the long run than Trump’s systematic destruction of the norms, traditions, and safeguards that have preserved our system of limited government for two centuries.

But what of the question of abortion and pro-life conservatives (of which I am one) who cannot bring themselves to vote for any pro-choice candidate? First, even though Donald Trump has made some pro-life gains, most of these are the result of Executive Orders that would probably have been signed by any Republican president. Second, abortion has been declining for four decades irrespective of which party controls the White House. That trend will most likely continue if Joe Biden becomes president. Finally, a true pro-life viewpoint should extend beyond abortion to concern for vulnerable countrymen in a pandemic and immigrant families seeking asylum.

Donald Trump is neither a good president nor a good man. His time in office has been needlessly divisive and reflects poorly on all who supported him, particularly traditional Republicans and conservative Christians. The images of both of these groups have been tarnished by their association with a man who has shown that many of their deeply-held beliefs and principles were easily abandoned for a temporary political advantage.

I’m not endorsing Joe Biden or any other candidate. In fact, I’m undecided on who I will vote for. What I am endorsing is a vote for anyone other than Trump. If you cannot pull the lever for Biden, there are many other third-party options that you can support instead of rewarding Donald Trump for four years of bad behavior. I urge you to consider these options for the good of your country as well as your party.

It is high time for voters to tell Mr. Trump, “You’re fired.”

Originally published on The Resurgent

Swing State Voters Favor Biden On Crime And Coronavirus

 Fox News polling in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin found that President Trump trails Democratic challenger Joe Biden in all three of these states, which were won by Trump in 2016. A surprising finding of the report was that many voters prefer Biden over Trump when it comes to handling both crime and the Coronavirus pandemic.

In a head-to-head matchup, likely voters in all three states picked Biden over Trump:

Arizona: Biden-49 Trump-40

North Carolina: Biden-50 Trump-46

Wisconsin: Biden-50 Trump-42

The poll also asked about four issues facing the country: the economy, the pandemic, policing and criminal justice, and dealing with China. Here is who voters trusted “to do a better job” in the three states polled:

Arizona:
Economy: Biden-44 Trump-45
Coronavirus: Biden-53 Trump-36
Policing and Criminal Justice: Biden-47 Trump-42
China: Biden-44 Trump-43

 

North Carolina:
Economy: Biden-43 Trump-51
Coronavirus: Biden-50 Trump-41
Policing and Criminal Justice: Biden-46 Trump-47
China: Biden-43 Trump-48

Wisconsin:
Economy: Biden-45 Trump-45
Coronavirus: Biden-52 Trump-35
Policing and Criminal Justice: Biden-47 Trump-42
China: Biden-44 Trump-45

The polling showed lopsided support for Joe Biden on the pandemic, but also indicated a surprising weakness for the president on his signature issues. Across the three states, the best Trump could manage was a statistical tie on criminal justice. Joe Biden trailed the president on the economy and China in North Carolina but ranked statistically even with the president in Arizona and Wisconsin on those issues.

It is especially striking that Wisconsin voters preferred Joe Biden to handle policing and criminal justice since Kenosha has been the scene of violent protests and riots since Jacob Blake was shot by police on August 23. The subsequent unrest led to two killings by Kyle Rittenhouse, who is being charged with murder.

The polling also covered senatorial races in Arizona and North Carolina. In Arizona, Republican incumbent Martha McSally is trailing Democrat Mark Kelly by an astonishing 17 points (56-39 percent) in a race that is trending towards a landslide. In North Carolina, Thom Tillis, another Republican incumbent is doing a bit better but still trailing Democrat Cal Cunningham 48-42 percent.

These two races may provide Democrats with two of the three seats that they need to win control of the Senate. A probable loss by Alabama’s Doug Jones would require an additional two Democratic pickups.

The Fox polling only covered three swing states while several others are in play. If only these three states flipped from the 2016 results, Trump would still win the Electoral College by 270-268. Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania provide additional opportunities to put Biden over the top. As I discussed earlier this week, Biden leads in those states as well.

Polling data shows that Trump’s approaches to the plethora of crises facing voters are falling flat with voters. Today marks 60 days until Election Day. If Donald Trump intends to pivot to a more unifying (and competent) strategy that would better appeal to undecided and moderate voters, he is running out of time to do so.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Or

Don’t Vote Twice

President Trump offered some atypically bad advice to North Carolinians yesterday. The president has previously offered so much bad advice that his listeners should know to be wary of following his recommendations without getting second opinions. Unfortunately, many seem to take Mr. Trump’s word as gospel. Doing so this time could land them in jail.

Speaking to a local reporter in North Carolina, President Trump told the crowd, “If you get the unsolicited ballots, send it in and then go make sure it’s counted and if it doesn’t tabulate, you vote. You just vote.”

“And then, if they tabulate it very late, which they shouldn’t be doing, they’ll see you’ve voting and so it won’t count,” the president continued.

“So, send it early and then go and vote, and if it’s not tabulated, you vote and the vote is going to count,” Trump added. “You can’t let them take your vote away.”

There is a lot of wrongness to unpack there.

First, it is against both state and federal law to vote more than once. Under a section of federal law titled “Voting more than once,” the US Code says, “Whoever votes more than once in an election… shall be fined not more than $10,000 or imprisoned not more than five years, or both.”

Second, only five states typically mail out “unsolicited” ballots to all voters. Axios reports that as many as ten states and the District of Columbia are planning to do so this year due to the pandemic. North Carolina is not one of them.

Of the ten states that will allow universal mail-in voting this year, only one, Colorado, is typically considered a battleground state. However, Colorado hasn’t voted Republican for president since 2004 and Mr. Trump trails Joe Biden there by double-digit margins. The same is true of Nevada, where President Trump trails by an average of six points.

The full list of universal mail voting states is California, Colorado, Hawaii, Montana (where Ryan Watson reports the Trump Administration has filed suit to stop the changes), Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Vermont. Far from being a blue-state policy, universal mail-in ballots have long been offered by both Democrat and Republican states. Before the pandemic, Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah, and Washington offered universal vote by mail.

Despite Trump’s claim that “every place where they have” used universal mail-in ballots “has been a mess,” incidences of voter fraud in universal vote-by-mail states have been very low. The FBI says that influencing an election using mail-in ballot fraud would be nearly impossible.

“While certain pockets of the country have seen their share of absentee-ballot scandals, problems are extremely rare in the five states that rely primarily on vote-by-mail, including the heavily Republican state of Utah,” Richard L. Hasen, an elections expert at the University of California, Irvine, School of Law, said in the Associated Press.

Ironically, one place where absentee ballot fraud has been a problem recently is North Carolina. This was not related to universal mail ballots, however. In 2018, evidence of absentee ballot fraud in North Carolina’s ninth congressional district by a Republican activist led to a new election and at least eight indictments.

With respect to the president’s admonition to making sure your absentee and/or mail-in ballot is counted, Newsweek reports that 39 states and the District of Columbia have the capability to track mail-in ballots. This does not mean that there is a record of who you voted for, but there is a record that you voted. If your mail-in ballot gets lost or is slow to reach state officials, the proper response is to contact your local elections officials, not to vote a second time. Depending on the state, you may be offered a provisional ballot, but “You just vote” again is not the way to handle the problem.

Given that the Post Office and state election officials will be seeing an unprecedented number of mail-in ballots this year, the best advice is to vote in person if you feel that it is safe to do so. My personal preference is to vote early in person. If your state allows early voting, you can avoid crowds by casting your ballot before Election Day. In past years, I’ve often been the only person at the poll when I voted early. Reserve mail-in ballots for those who are truly at-risk or who cannot visit their polling place in person, but Coronavirus should be a valid reason for voting absentee.

President Trump has given bad advice before, such as when he suggested the “injection” of “disinfectants” to combat Coronavirus. His suggestion to vote twice is more insidious because it sounds reasonable where injecting disinfectants sounds crazy to anyone of even moderate intelligence. The problem is that following this reasonable-sounding advice is a felony.

What’s more, federal law also prohibits inducing others to commit voter fraud. By instructing people to vote twice, there is a valid argument that President Trump himself committed a crime. Of course, a Justice Department that argues that a president cannot be indicted can be trusted not to prosecute. In fact, Attorney General Barr is already on record that, “I don’t know what the law is.”

President Trump’s advice to vote more than once is bad advice that can get voters into serious legal trouble and threatens to undermine the integrity of the election. Of course, what else should we expect from a chief executive whose tenure has been filled with both lack of respect for and ignorance of the law?

Originally posted on The Resurgent

Update: The North Carolina State Board of Elections tweeted to remind voters that following President Trump’s advice would result in the voter committing a Class I felony. The tweet notes that soliciting a vote to vote twice is also illegal.

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