Monday, February 14, 2022

Trump was right about spying... except that he wasn't

 The Durham investigation was back in the news over the weekend. The inquiry that was supposed to be a smoking gun for FBI wrongdoing and drop just before the election - the 2020 election, that is - is still ongoing and some, such as Jim Jordan, Mark Meadows, and Donald Trump himself, are calling an allegation that the Hillary Clinton campaign was working with a tech executive to “mine” internet data “for the purpose of gathering derogatory information about Donald Trump” an explosive revelation of wrongdoing. The actual story is a bit more complicated, however.

The new revelations center on a February 11 filing by the Durham team that was first reported by Fox News and the Washington Times. One of the first things that I noticed about the reports (the full text of the filing is now online here) is that it does not contain an indictment for spying or surveillance. That’s a pretty glaring omission for a bombshell report that the president of the United States was under surveillance.

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Photo by Chris Yang on Unsplash

As it turns out, the filing is a motion related to a previous indictment that was revealed last September. In this indictment, Michael A. Sussmann, an attorney in Washington, DC, was charged with making false statements to the FBI on Sept. 19, 2016. Note that the date is prior to the 2016 election and the charge relates to Sussman’s request to pass along evidence to the General Counsel “that allegedly demonstrated a covert communications channel between the Trump Organization and a Russia-based bank.”

Per the Justice Department’s press release, “Sussmann, who had previously represented the Democratic National Committee in connection with a cyber hack, falsely stated to the General Counsel that he was not bringing these allegations to the FBI on behalf of any client. This false representation led the General Counsel to understand that Sussmann was providing information as a good citizen rather than a paid advocate or political operative. In fact, Sussmann assembled and conveyed the allegations to the FBI on behalf of at least two clients, including a U.S. technology executive and the Clinton Presidential Campaign.”

The filing last week, which was part of an effort to claim conflicts of interest with Sussman’s defense team, alleged that the information passed along by Sussman originated with former Neustar Senior Vice President Rodney Joffe, called “Technology Executive - 1,” who “exploited” domain name system internet traffic at “a particular health care provider” (believed to be Spectrum Health), Trump Tower, and “the Executive Office of the President of the United States.”

As explained by the Times, Durham alleged that “‘Internet Company-1’ accessed ‘dedicated servers for the EOP [Executive Office of the President] as part of a sensitive arrangement whereby it provided DNS resolution services to the EOP’ and that Joffe and his associates ‘exploited this arrangement by mining the EOP’s DNS traffic and other data for the purpose of gathering derogatory information about Donald Trump.’”

After an initial meeting in September 2016, Durham says that Sussman passed along additional information from Joffe to a second federal agency, likely the CIA, on February 9, 2017. Durham alleges that Sussman repeated the claim that he was not working on behalf of a client at this meeting. Sussman denies that claim and says he did nothing wrong.

The Times fails to make the leap to the Jordan and Meadows’s claims that the filing proves that the Clinton campaign illegally spied on the Trump campaign and the Trump White House, saying instead that the news “gave allies of Trump more reason to believe the former president was spied upon.” Fox also stops short of saying that the Clinton campaign broke the law. There is a good reason why neither outlet connects that final dot.

The Fox report provides more detail on just what Sussman and Joffe were feeding to the FBI. The filing reportedly states that Sussman “provided data which he claimed reflected purportedly suspicious DNS lookups by these entities of internet protocol (IP) addresses affiliated with a Russian mobile phone provider," and that he claimed that the lookups "demonstrated Trump and/or his associates were using supposedly rare, Russian-made wireless phones in the vicinity of the White House and other locations."

“The Special Counsel's Office has identified no support for these allegations,” Durham added, noting that the “lookups were far from rare in the United States.”

For those who aren’t especially tech-savvy (like me), a DNS lookup refers to the process of looking up an internet address. The domain name system (DNS) is like the address book or phone number for the internet, so a DNS lookup might provide the IP addresses of sites visited by devices or who those sites are registered to, but it wouldn’t show the content exchanged by those devices.

The section of the filing that discusses “applicable law” makes no mention of laws that prohibit using inside sources to look up DNS addresses. Rather, the brief is a discussion of whether Sussman’s counsel, the law firm of Latham & Watkins LLP, has a conflict of interests because it had already represented Sussman and two other clients in matters dealing with the Special Counsel investigation.

The use of the term “executive office of the president” also does not seem to imply that White House servers or Trump himself were directly monitored by Joffe’s efforts. The White House website defines the term not as a physical location such as the Oval Office but as the “home to many of the President’s closest advisers” that “are constantly shifting as each President identifies his or her needs and priorities.” The EOP includes the White House Communications Office and Press Secretary’s Office, the White House Military Office, and the Office of Presidential Advance. The site notes that “many senior advisors in the EOP work near the President in the West Wing of the White House,” but “the majority of the staff is housed in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building.”

So, was Trump right? Well, let’s go back to what Trump actually said. The Former Guy’s tweets are no more but their content has been preserved. Fact Check lists a series of Trump’s tweets from 2017 which are the basis for his claims of vindication. In the tweets, Trump claimed that “Obama had my ‘wires tapped’ in Trump Tower.” There are several tweets and the wording varies, but they all center around “Obama” and “wiretapping.”

There are key differences between Trump’s claims and Durham’s allegations. First, the use of “Obama” implies government action since Obama was president at the time. So far, Durham’s investigation has not uncovered any criminal wrongdoing or illicit surveillance by the FBI or other federal agencies.

The sole indictment of a government employee was an FBI lawyer who pleaded guilty to one count of altering an email. Kevin Clinesmith was sentenced to probation and community service after explaining that he believed his edit to be true.

A parallel investigation by the DOJ inspector general into the origins of the Crossfire Hurricane investigation of Trump’s alleged ties to Russia was completed way back in December 2019. That report found no evidence of “political bias or improper motivation” in opening the investigation or that the FBI had attempted to spy on the Trump campaign. It did, however, find numerous omissions and errors in judgment that did not rise to the level of criminal conduct.

Likewise, Trump’s use of the word “wiretapping,” even considering that surveillance today would likely not require physically “tapping” a wire, implies that the content of his communications was being read or heard. To date, that does not appear to be the case. That includes the details from the recent Durham filing.

Further, there seems to be a serious question as to whether accessing the DNS lookups was even illegal. Consider that Sussman has only been charged with lying to the FBI and not any surveillance-related crime, while Joffe, the person who actually looked into the internet records, has not been charged with anything. It’s possible that further indictments are coming, but it seems that most prosecutors would have chosen to make the big collar before breaking the story with a filing that deals with minutia.

Some might argue that Sussman and Joffe are being given a pass by the Deep State for their nefarious deeds. If that’s the case, why is Sussman being prosecuted for making false statements? If he’s going to be let off the hook for one charge, why not both?

Whether the DNS lookups constitute spying depends on how you define the term. Merriam-Webster defines “spying” as “to watch secretly usually for hostile purposes,” which would apply in this case. However, that definition is so vague as to encompass any number of opposition research activities carried out by political campaigns.

And it’s important to remember that Trump didn’t just claim that his campaign was spied on, he claimed Obama Administration was doing it, not the Clinton campaign. He also claimed a more intrusive sort of espionage than accessing DNS information. Neither of those claims is supported by evidence.

Channeling the Chevy Chase days of “Saturday Night Live,” it’s also worth noting that the breaking news is that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has also still not been indicted for illicit spying on Trump… or for anything else. A 2016 look at Clinton’s private email server and a 2020 investigation into the Clinton Foundation both failed to yield criminal charges.

The Durham investigation, which began on May 13, 2019, has so far lasted 1,008 days. By comparison, the Mueller investigation lasted only 674 days, already almost a year shorter. Mueller indicted 38 individuals and companies in that time while Durham has indicted only three: Clinesmith, Sussman, and a Russian national who was also charged with making false statements. It’s interesting to note that many of the same folks that attacked the Mueller investigation as a neverending waste of money and resources are happy to let Durham keep digging.

Far from being a smoking gun, the Durham filing breaks little new ground and seems unlikely to bring any new indictments or confirm allegations of government wrongdoing or surveillance of the Trump campaign. If John Durham hasn’t uncovered a Vast Deep State Conspiracy by now, the odds are not good that he ever will. It’s time for the Special Counsel to close up shop if he can’t uncover criminal activity soon.

With every revelation, there is a rush to say that “Trump was right” about alleged spying on his campaign, but the revelations don’t fit the narrative. The Durham investigation was chartered in April 2019 to examine allegations that the FBI unlawfully surveilled Donald Trump’s campaign. On that score, it has been a bust, but that doesn’t stop Trump’s supporters from twisting both The Former Guy’s original claims and the available facts to fit their own agendas.

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Congratulations to the LA Rams on their Super Bowl victory. As a former resident of the Cincy area, I was pulling for the Bengals, but it was a good game.

As to the halftime show, I’d say most Super Bowl halftime shows are about as entertaining as SNL musical guests, which is to say not very. I’m just not a fan of hip hop so I wasn’t the target audience.

A lot of the commercials were duds, especially the one that was just a QR code bouncing around the screen like a 90s screensaver, but there were some good ones. My most memorable ones included:

There were other good ones as well, but these were my favorites. What were yours?

From the Racket

Saturday, February 12, 2022

More Republicans acting like liberals

 It has only been a couple of days since I wrote about how the new Republicans are acting a lot like the old left. It’s been a long week, however, and there are two brand new examples to add fuel to the fire.

The first event was the so-called “Freedom Convoy” of truckers in Canada, which Steve Berman discussed yesterday. The truckers, who are angry about Canada’s vaccine mandate, are blocking roads in the Canadian capital of Ottawa and have effectively paralyzed the city. Not only that, but the traffic jam has interrupted the flow of supplies to American auto plants near the Northern border, causing several Detroit-area factories to shut down.

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All this is unusual enough since the Canucks are usually quiet neighbors. They don’t usually hold loud parties or get into domestic disputes. More often than not, they seem to be casting a wary eye south rather than having the attention focused on themselves.

What makes the situation even more unusual is the support that many on the right have expressed for the protesters who are at the center of the traffic snarl. To use my $50 phrase of the week, the Maple Leaf truckers have become a cause célèbre among such notable voices on the right as Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson.

This is ironic because I’m old enough to remember that most of the Republican pundits cheering on the Canadian truckers were outraged when American protesters used the tactic of blocking traffic in American cities. Of course, that was only last year and those were BLM protesters rather than anti-mandate protesters, but the Fox News set was very consistent in condemning those who blocked traffic on US highways going back at least to the Obama Administration. There was at least one exception, however, as city employees in New York blocked traffic to protest vaccine mandates last year.

There are signs that anti-vax activists in the US may be preparing for similar protests. The Department of Homeland Security has warned that American truckers may be planning to disrupt the State of the Union and the Super Bowl. Both President Biden and the NFL would be likely targets for Republican protests.

While the Republican talking heads might cheer anti-mandate gridlock in US cities, I don’t think that most Americans would. Protests that inconvenience people who are undecided are generally counterproductive. They may have the effect of making the protesters and the base feel good about themselves, but political movements don’t generally win hearts and minds by acting like jerks.

This belief is supported by a recent Ipsos poll which found that 46 percent of Canadians had sympathy for the protesters but didn’t necessarily agree with them, but 54 percent did not agree and had no sympathy for the protests.

The other incident was the revelation that The Former Guy apparently took classified documents with him to Mar-a-Lago when he left the White House last year. Per the Washington Post, the National Archives and Records Administration has requested that the Justice Department investigate Trump’s handling of classified materials after 15 boxes of materials that should have been returned to the government. Some of the documents were reportedly torn apart and taped back together. The cache of documents was said to contain material that was clearly marked “classified” and “top secret.

Also, an upcoming book by Maggie Haberman will detail how White House staff allegedly would periodically discover wads of torn printed material clogging White House toilets, Axios reports. Her sources believed that Trump was attempting to flush documents, a charge that The Former Guy denies.

But Trump also says that he was under “no obligation” to return the documents, says Business Insider. This is a demonstrably false claim since the Presidential Records Act makes records of the president public property and requires that they be preserved and transferred to the National Archives after presidents leave office.

I’m a bit skeptical of the toilet story on the basis of my rule of thumb that if it sounds too stupid to be true, it probably is. The truth gives satire a run for its money these days though. That’s especially true where Trump is concerned.

And there is another interesting point here as well. White House call logs provided to the January 6 committee were missing details of calls made by Mr. Trump during the riot. That makes it difficult for investigators to determine Trump’s activities during those critical hours. I’m not saying that The Former Guy flushed the incriminating call logs, but more investigation is needed on both January 6 and Trump’s handling of classified documents. It may be a case of life imitating art.

While I’m not sure how many of these allegations will ultimately be verified, the story does remind me of another politician who got into trouble for mishandling classified information. Once upon a time, there was a woman who was widely believed to be a wicked witch. This woman thought that rules did not apply to her and was very careless in her government job, setting up a private “homebrew” internet server to handle her emails. This private server was not subject to the security standards of normal government computer systems, which, as it turns out, weren’t all that secure anyway since Russian hackers had apparently been reading the emails of top officials for years.

But that’s beside the point!

Anyway, this woman ended up being the target of an FBI investigation and that probably prevented her from being elected president. That woman’s name, of course, was Kim Kardashian. No, I was just checking to see if you were paying attention! It was Hillary Clinton! FBI Director James Comey ultimately decided not to recommend prosecution against Hillary even though he acknowledged that she had been “extremely careless” with America’s secrets.

Once again, I’m old enough to remember that Hillary’s actions make her totally unfit for office in 2016 according to Republican pundits. I agreed and still do. The question before us now is whether the Republicans still agree with their old metrics of behavior. Will they hold The Former Guy to the same standard to which they held Hillary? Don’t hold your breath.

As I pointed out earlier this week, as Republicans embraced MAGA, they have become more and more like the Democrats that they despise. That disturbing trend is continuing and leaves quite a few of us disliking both parties.

As Rush Limbaugh used to say, Republicans shouldn’t bother trying to be Democrat-lite. If people want what the Democrats have to offer, they’ll just vote for the real thing.

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Inflation continued to rise at a rapid clip in January. The CPI rose 7.5 percent compared with a year ago. It was the highest rate of inflation since 1982.

The good news is that it was a comparison to a year ago, in the middle of our winter of discontent and infection. As I’ve said in the past, when moving from a semi-shuttered economy to a recovery, inflation is a mathematical certainty. Add continuing supply chain woes to the mix (Canadian roadblocks anyone?) that restrict the availability of goods and you have the recipe for sharply rising prices.

Many economists still predict that inflation will wane as the country and the world return to post-pandemic stability and supply chains get sorted out. Mathematically speaking, the inflation rate should slow dramatically when we get to a point where we are comparing current prices to a normal year rather than a year stuck in the doldrums. Make no mistake, however, this is a problem for Joe Biden and the Democrats as midterm elections approach. Voter attitudes are being formed and they don’t turn on a dime.


I confess that I wasn’t interested enough to seek out why everybody started talking about gazpacho over the past day or so. I stumbled across the answer anyway in a funny clip that actually made me LOL.

Enjoy today’s Tweet of the Day, in which Marjorie Taylor Greene apparently rails against Soup Nazis, and have a good weekend!

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From the Racket

Thursday, February 10, 2022

The magnificent disappearing COVID mandates

 

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Photo by Martin Sanchez on Unsplash

In my travels around the interwebs, I’ve seen several recent posts that claim that “Democrats” have suddenly changed “in unison” to take up the same positions that COVID skeptics held in 2020. The tweet below is one example of the posts I’ve seen, along with others making the allegation that mandates are being lifted around the country on the spurious notion that the “science has changed” when nothing is really different.

Oilfield Rando and the others are wrong. The fact is that there is a big difference between what is happening now and taking a laissez-faire position on the pandemic two years ago.

There are several really obvious reasons why things are changing. One of the most obvious of these obvious reasons is that the Omicron surge is ending. The current seven-day moving average is less than 254,000 new cases a day and trending lower. That’s down from more than 806,000 in mid-January.

A second obvious and important reason is that we now have vaccines. Two years ago, there was no defense against the Alpha strain of COVID-19. Now we have vaccines that can protect against both infection and serious illness. That is a YUGE difference between 2020 and 2022.

Current vaccination data is disappointing but shows that 76 percent of Americans have at least one dose, 64 percent are fully vaccinated, and 27 percent have been boosted. That isn’t nearly enough for herd immunity, but it does mean that people who want to be vaccinated and boosted have had the chance to do so.

For a long time, we’ve talked about how the vaccinated shouldn’t necessarily have to keep using mitigation strategies to protect people who refuse to protect themselves. Maybe we are at that point now.

Additionally, we also have treatments coming online for those who contract serious cases despite either their vaccinations or lack of such. Both Pfizer and Merck have developed new antiviral pills that are effective against COVID-19, but the treatment needs to be started soon after the infection.

Other treatments that have worked in the past aren’t effective against Omicron. Regeneron produced a popular monoclonal antibody therapy, but the company says that its product doesn’t work well against Omicron. Other treatments, like hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin, never really proved to be effective despite the hype.

Finally, unlike the early days of the pandemic, N95 masks are now plentiful and we know that they do more than just contain the virus and prevent it from spreading. N95s protect the wearer as well as the unvaccinated, unmasked masses around them.

As a vaccinated and boosted person, I seldom wear a mask these days, but I have no quarrel with those who do. I think that many people who are in higher-risk categories will choose to wear masks for a long time. And that’s okay.

The honest truth is that the current situation is very different from the situation back in March 2020 when the world stood still. At that point, the virus was on the loose and we knew very little about it. A lot of what we thought we knew turned out to be wrong. On both sides. For example, we didn’t understand the role of asymptomatic transmission in the early days, but that factor made it wise to advocate widespread masking.

For another example, it wasn’t the “lockdowns” that caused the economy to stop. An August 2020 paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that the collapse hit all states regardless of stay-home policies. Likewise, essential jobs were impacted less by layoffs than nonessential services like travel and leisure. People stayed home to avoid the virus, not because government told them to.

A lot of people thought that the mitigations were meant to last forever. That was never the case, but as the pandemic lingered and new waves with new variants kept hitting, one after the other, it was hard to tell when to remove the mitigations. It wasn’t necessarily wrong to delay removing mask mandates and the like because there was a price to pay in terms of lives for the rush to return to normal. In terms of per capita deaths, the top ten list is dominated by red states with liberal (read that as “not restrictive”) COVID rules.

In any situation where 50 states can make 50 different decisions about timing, some states will react too early while some states will wait much too late. As with many things in life, the smart money is not in being an early adopter or one of the last to change, but in being around the middle of the pack.

It’s not only a good thing that the states move at different speeds, it’s the way it’s supposed to be. It’s a feature of our system rather than a bug.

In fact, one of the mistakes we made at the beginning of the pandemic was in imposing nationwide shelter-in-place orders rather than realizing that the virus had yet to spread to much of the country. Such orders should have been based on local virus levels rather than a one-size-fits-all policy. (Although to be fair, testing and contract tracing problems meant that authorities had very little idea of the extent of the spread.) The reverse is true as mandates are being lifted. Local conditions need to be taken into account.

So to get back to Oilfield Rando’s point, it would have been stupid to drop all attempts at mitigation two years ago when the virus was first starting to rage across the country. The US has already suffered 907,000 COVID deaths (the number is probably higher due to strict rules about what counts as a COVID death and lack of testing in the early days) and we will undoubtedly top one million dead before the crisis is over, but it would have been much worse if public health authorities had not acted to slow the spread until vaccines could be offered on a widespread basis.

Although public opinion may play a role in nudging some authorities to lift mandates in areas where virus levels have dwindled, that still doesn’t mean that the changing science wasn’t taken into account. Again, that’s how our system is supposed to work. Government officials need to be able to balance the factual nature of the threat with public sentiment and balance the two.

What many of the opponents of COVID restrictions won’t acknowledge is that for most of the pandemic, public opinion has been in favor of mandates. That includes Pew polling as recently as September 2021 that found that respondents believed restrictions were worth the cost by a two-to-one margin and majority support for vaccine mandates. Even more recent polling still shows the public closely divided with no broad groundswell of resistance to mitigation strategies, although they do show a decline in support for mask mandates.

A lot of people seem to have moderate opinions on the issue that fall between business-as-usual and total lockdowns. That shouldn’t be surprising because it’s a sensible place to be.

The fact that mask mandates are going away isn’t because people like Oilfield Rando have finally won the argument and persuaded health authorities that they were right. It’s because the objective facts of the situation have changed, and mandates that were never meant to be permanent are being lifted because they are no longer necessary.

We’re getting to the point where it is going to be up to each individual to protect themselves from the disease. It should be apparent to all that COVID-19 isn’t going away. Either protect yourself with vaccines and boosters or you’ll eventually get it and risk your life and health. Again and again.

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As an aside here, I’m going to say that it seems like I’ve known more people to get COVID over the past month than over the past two years.

My observations are anecdotal, but I don’t know anyone who was vaccinated who has died from the virus (or from the vaccine for that matter.) My wife has lost a relative to COVID in recent weeks and we know others who are seriously ill and not expected to live. As far as we know, these serious cases are almost all unvaccinated.

The one serious case I know of in a vaccinated person is an older acquaintance who received a booster. He told me in January that he had been fighting COVID for three weeks, but serious is a relative term. In his case, it meant lingering cough and fatigue. He wasn’t on a ventilator like other people that I know.

Since the beginning of January, both of my kids, who are vaccinated without a booster, have had COVID as well. First, my 17-year-old son tested positive and had a mild case. We thought my 13-year-old daughter had it as well but didn’t test her. A few weeks later, she was sent home from school due to a close contact. A few days after that, she developed a cough and tested positive. Her case was like a bad cold or very mild flu.

The interesting thing is that my wife and I, both of who have had boosters, never got sick. I tested negative before a trip in January and didn’t bother testing again, but we really didn’t make an effort to isolate or mask at home while the kids were sick.

Anecdotal evidence is one data point rather than a trend, but my experience indicates that boosters work. If my and I ever had the virus, it was so mild that we didn’t know it and that’s still a win for the vaccine.


Giving credit where credit is due, Mitch McConnell spoke out against the censure of Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, calling the events of January 6 “a violent insurrection.”

“It was a violent insurrection for the purpose of trying to prevent a peaceful transfer of power after a legitimately certified election from one administration to the next," McConnell told reporters. "That’s what it was."

McConnell’s frank words were in stark contrast to those of Nikki Hailey, who recently criticized Mike Pence for “going after Republicans” by disputing The Former Guy’s claim that he could throw out election results, and Ron DeSantis, who gave a stammering nonanswer when asked about the 2020 election.

The Tweet of the Day is Kevin McCarthy dodging a similar question.

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FFrom the Racket