It’s Day 21 of the government shutdown and there is no end
in sight. As of today, the shutdown is tied with the 1995-96 shutdown as the
longest in history. The leadership of both parties is resolute. Both President
Trump and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have dug in and refused to compromise from
their respective positions. Not everyone is happy among the party rank and
file, however.
In the most recent House votes on compromise bills to reopen
the government, 12 Republicans joined with House Democrats in voting to fully
fund the Departments of Transportation and Housing and Urban Development (HR 267).
Previously, 10 Republicans had voted to fund parts of the government. In
Thursday’s vote, they were joined by Rep. Steve Stivers (R-OH), the most recent
chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, and Rep. Rodney
Davis (R-IL). Stivers and Davis did not join the 10 other Republicans in a
separate vote to reopen the Department of Agriculture (HR 265).
The number of disaffected Republicans is growing. On Wednesday’s
votes, Reps. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) and Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) joined with
another eight Republicans who had earlier voted to fund the government. The eight
who have consistently voted in favor of funding are Reps. Will Hurd (R-TX),
Greg Walden (R-OR), Fred Upton (R-MI), Elise Stefanik (R-NY), John Katko (R-NY)
and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA). Greg Walden was the chairman of the RCCC from
2014 through 2016.
Although both bills passed the House, they will die in the
Senate where Majority Leader Mitch McConnell refuses to take any action on a
bill that Trump would not sign. President Trump has refused to waver on his
demand for $5 billion for his wall project, about one-fifth of the estimated
total that would be required, and Democrats have offered only $1.3
billion for border security funding that excludes the wall. Pelosi joked
with reporters that she would only appropriate one
dollar for the wall, adding, “We’re not doing a wall. Does anybody have any
doubt about that?”
Despite Pelosi’s show of resolve, some Democrats are
wavering as well. Politico
reported on Wednesday that some freshman House Democrats were “freaking out”
about the shutdown and the party’s strategy. A senior Democratic aide blamed
some of the anxiety on the fact that some new congressmen didn’t have their
offices and emails set up and were not receiving communications from Speaker
Pelosi.
Nevertheless, some are feeling the heat from constituents. “If
I am getting comments and contact from my constituents expressing concern that
the Democrats are not prioritizing security, then I think we can do better,”
said Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.).
Even if some Democrats have misgivings, so far, they have
not had the opportunity to break ranks with their party. The only funding bills
active are the partial funding bills passed by the House that reopen individual
departments of the federal government. The dynamics of the shutdown are that
funding bills originate in the Democrat-controlled House. Since McConnell is
quashing votes in the Senate, that means that Republicans have more chances to
cross the aisle than Democrats.
If McConnell decides to allow the House funding bills to be
considered in the Senate, it is highly likely that they would pass easily. The
bigger question is whether the Senate would have enough votes to override a
probable veto from the president.
As the shutdown stretches on, the effects
are starting to pile up like trash in the unstaffed national parks. Federal
workers are missing a payday today. That has rippling effects throughout the country
as local federal employees may be unable to pay their bills and about $2.2
billion in consumer spending is withheld from the economy. Even the Coast
Guard and air traffic controllers are affected. Some services, such as the
ability to obtain passports from the State Department are already closed and, if
the shutdown stretches on others, such as tax refunds, may be delayed.
The shutdown will continue until one side blinks. So far,
neither President Trump nor Speaker Pelosi has
given any indication of budging from their positions. The compromise to end the
shutdown will have to come from members of Congress who feel the pressure from
their constituents. Pelosi’s San Francisco seat is safe, but many other congressmen
and senators represent swing districts and states. They will be ready to make a
deal and, because Republicans are more vulnerable after the last midterms, the
odds are that it will not include a wall.
At this point, Mitch McConnell is the key. If McConnell stays
strong and protects the president then the shutdown could last indefinitely. However,
polling
already shows that voters blame Trump for the shutdown and oppose both the
shutdown tactic and the wall. If and when McConnell determines that Trump’s
shutdown is endangering the Republican majority in the Senate, he could easily
allow a vote and put Trump in the position of having to veto funding without a
wall or backing down.
Originally published
on The
Resurgent
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