Special Operations commandos stormed the executive palace to decapitate the government. In the aftermath of the commando attack, the rest of the country was occupied to preserve order.
If you’ve guessed that I’m not talking about Venezuela, you’re correct. The first paragraph was a description of the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. The Soviet-Afghan War began with Operation Storm-333, a Spetsnaz raid on Tajberg Palace in Kabul, the residence of General Secretary Hafizullah Amin, leader of Afghanistan’s communist party and an ally of the Soviet Union. Or so he thought. Amin did not live long enough to learn otherwise since he was killed shortly after the assault rather than being taken prisoner like Nicholas Maduro.
I start with this history lesson because things looked pretty rosy for the Soviets on December 27, 1979, just as they do for the Trump Administration today. We don’t know how the current war will play out, but we do know, as Paul Harvey might say, the rest of the story of the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. Likewise, it’s premature to declare victory over Venezuela, although the early morning raid that captured Maduro was definitely successful and an impressive demonstration of American military might.
There are many questions at this point. Trump says that the US will run Venezuela, but the old regime still seems to be in power. Smart generals might advise the president that the enemy gets a vote. It seems unlikely that the remainder of the regime will voluntarily step aside. Running the country will almost certainly require an invasion and occupation, and even Venezuelans who opposed Maduro aren’t likely to welcome American rule. That’s a recent lesson from our own experience in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Many Americans don’t know the long history of American interventions and occupations in Latin America, but the people of the region probably do. These interventions have not usually ended well, even when well-intentioned, and that is arguably not the case for Venezuela.
At this point, it isn’t clear if there is any plan for post-Maduro Venezuela. If there isn’t, there should be. The lack of preparation for a post-Saddam Iraq allowed the insurgency to fester and grow, and the jungles of Venezuela provide a fertile ground for guerrilla war.
It’s plausible that what comes next has not been given serious consideration because Trump is more concerned with headlines than policy. Colin Powell’s “Pottery Barn” Rule that “if you break it, you buy it” is absolutely going to apply.
Trump has already undermined the Nobel Prize-winning opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, by saying that she “doesn’t have the support or respect to run the country.” This may be because Trump is jealous of her Nobel Prize or because his plan all along was for the US to take over the country. Both could be true.
And then there’s the question of the legality of the attack. US law typically requires congressional approval or the threat of imminent attack to allow the use of armed forces, as Trump’s chief of staff has noted. The War Powers Resolution mandates that the president consult with Congress before committing troops “in every possible instance” and make a report within 48 hours of doing so. Not only have these requirements not been met in the case of Venezuela, Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) says that Congress was told that there would be no troops on the ground or invasion of Venezuela.
“We have been briefed, we’ve just been completely lied to,” Moulton said.
Whether Trump thinks he needs congressional authorization for the initial attack or not, it should be obvious that he will need congressional cooperation for a longterm administration of the country. Even if most Republicans are okay with Mr. Trump’s war (Thomas Massie, Rand Paul, and MGT are notably voicing opposition), Trump has likely poisoned the well with Democrats.
The upside is that Maduro is out of power. That’s a good thing, at least in the short term.
The downside is that Donald Trump seems to be committing the US to an open-ended occupation of Venezuela. It seems like only a year ago when MAGA was opposed to “forever wars” and nation building.
To be fair, this is neither of those, however. This is naked aggression and exploitation. Trump is already saying that the occupation of Venezuela “won’t cost us anything because the money coming out of the ground is very substantial.” Not counting the American lives it will cost.
When Trump says we are going to take Venezuela’s oil, that’s more than a clue to his motive for the war. He’s saying the quiet part out loud.
While Trump’s action is going to get Americans killed (if it hasn’t already), the biggest danger is that the Overton Window is being moved and the norms for a president’s authority to wage a unilateral war without congressional oversight are being expanded. The boundaries are being pushed further out of shape and a future president can cite Trump’s abuse of authority to go further afield, just as Trump is citing George H. W. Bush’s invasion of Panama in 1989 (which did involve an actual threat to US forces in the Panama Canal Zone).
In reality, we don’t even have to look to future presidents. Trump seldom stops after one bite at the apple of abuses of power. The odds are high that getting away with attacking Venezuela means that he will start more wars. If I was Greenland, I’d sleep with one eye open.
And finally, Trump’s action surrenders the moral high ground. Attacking and occupying Venezuela is little different than Putin invading Ukraine (or Chechnya or Georgia) or China planning to take Taiwan. The US will have no moral authority to condemn these acts of aggression after waging its own imperialistic war in what Trump considers our sphere of influence (assuming Trump has any interest in condemning Russian or Chinese aggression). We have met the enemy and apparently decided to join them.
Trump world is celebrating today, and it’s definitely true that Nicholas Maduro deserves whatever he gets (excluding a possible Trump pardon), but the cost of deposing him may turn out to be a lot more expensive than intended in terms lives, money, credibility, and goodwill. The Soviets didn’t know it at the time, but Operation Storm-333 laid the groundwork for the fall of their empire.
Wars are much easier to start than finish, and once the furies have been unleashed, where they go can be very unpredictable.
A COMMUNITY NOTE UPDATE A few weeks ago, I wrote about my experience as a Community Notes writer. I’m please to report that I finally had a Note published on the platform formerly known as Twitter on December 31. The offending post claimed that Anthony Fauci used the AIDS drug, AZT, to kill people.
Notes on Community Notes
Contrary to the experience of many internet users, my earliest days on the internet found me gravitating towards debunking sites. Not long after I discovered the internet, I discovered Snopes, which at that point was mainly associated with debunking urban myths. I remember thoroughly enjoying reading their investigations of a great many early web and pr…
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