Donald Trump is proving to be a blessing and a curse for Republican
candidates this year. Unfortunately for Republicans, we appear to be transitioning
from the helpful phase to the hindrance phase.
In the primary elections, President Trump’s favored candidates
were tough to beat. Buoyed by 85 percent approval from Republicans (per a recent
Wall
Street Journal/NBC News poll), Trump-backed candidates have seen a definite
Trump bump in the polls while many Republican Trump critics have been defeated
or decided that 2018 was a good time to retire.
However, the 2018 elections are now shifting to the general
phase where Mr. Trump is looking more like a liability. While Republicans have
eked out victories in this year’s special elections, Democrats have overperformed
by an average of 16
points. There are many Republican House districts with margins smaller than
16 points.
With the economy doing well, President Trump seems to be the
big problem for Republican candidates. The same poll that showed President
Trump with 85 percent approval among Republicans found him with only 38 percent
approval among the independent voters who decide elections. We don’t even need
to discuss his approval among Democrats.
President Trump’s collapse with independents seems to be
driven by women voters. A new Fox
News poll shows that women disapprove of Mr. Trump by a margin of 60-38
percent The gender gap has returned with a vengeance.
President Trump has placed both the Republican Party as a
whole and individual candidates in a conundrum. GOP voters are out of sync with
the rest of the country on President Trump. The Republican primary became a
loyalty test where candidates argued over who supported the president more. The
problem now is that the inability to distance themselves from Trump is likely
to hurt Republican candidates in the general election.
Republican candidates are between a rock and a hard place.
At this point, most have secured their nominations by pledging to support a
president who preempts stories about a booming economy with his daily Twitter
tirade and petty squabbles, not to mention a parade of indictments and convictions
of Trump campaign staffers and Republican congressmen. If President Trump would
sequester himself in the White House without his phone, Republican candidates
might recover some lost ground and save some endangered seats. There is little chance
of that happening, however.
President Trump’s outspokenness is one of the things that
Republican voters love about him. It helped him get elected. It just won’t help
congressional Republicans.
Originally published
on The
Resurgent
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