Friday, November 2, 2018

Green Candidate Wilts In Arizona, Throws Support To Dems

The topsy-turvy Arizona Senate race just got upended once again. Kirsten Sinema, the Democrat candidate campaigning to replace retiring Republican Jeff Flake just got a boost as a third-party candidate in the race dropped out and endorsed her candidacy.

Angela Green, the appropriately named nominee of the Green Party, announced her departure from the race yesterday afternoon and endorsed Sinema in a video clip posted on YouTube by Arizona’s 12 News.

“I want them [my supporters] to vote for a better Arizona and that would be Kyrsten Sinema, the Democratic Party,” Green said.

Polling in the race has been inconsistent with Republican Martha McSally leading in early October. Sinema then led in a spate of polls in the middle and end of the month. The two most recent polls show different results with ABC 15 showing a 7-point advantage for McSally and CNN showing Sinema ahead by four points.

The impact of Green’s endorsement on the race is uncertain. The ABC 15 poll pegged her support at one percent. Another two percent of voters were undecided. With the news of Green’s withdrawal coming less than a week prior to Election Day, many of her supporters may have already cast absentee ballots or voted early.

In an encouraging sign for Republicans, AZ Central reported last week that returned ballots from Republican voters had outpaced those from Democrats by 11 percentage points. Approximately 75 percent of Arizona voters are expected to vote early.

The race has been very fluid with some independent voters apparently changing their minds. Pollster Mike Noble told ABC 15 that McSally had benefited from the Kavanaugh hearings. On the other hand, McSally recently told Sean Hannity that her votes for Obamacare repeal were causing her to get her “ass kicked” over coverage of pre-existing conditions.

Any supporters of the Green Party candidate would almost certainly rally behind Sinema if they support either candidate. In a letter on her website that decries Democrat “bullying” of her campaign, Green wrote, “ Although Sinema is a Democrat, and if you do not know, I was a registered Democrat for many years prior to this election, who is supposed to be more of a progressive, her voting record shows she has voted over 62% with the Trump agenda.  Although that is better than the 97% voting record of McSally, I still believe Arizonan’s [sic] deserve better.” 

With the rapidly changing dynamics in Arizona, the race is an almost literal coin toss. The election could easily go either way. In such a close election, even a fraction of the one percent of voters who backed Green could prove decisive.

Originally published on The Resurgent

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