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Wednesday, June 17, 2020
New Poll Shows Double-Digit Lead For Biden
A new poll from Reuters that is hot off the presses this morning shows that Joe Biden may be pulling away from Donald Trump in the race for the presidency. The new poll shows the Democrat with a 13-point lead over the incumbent President Trump.
Reuters/Ipsos found that 48 percent of registered voters preferred Biden while only 35 percent leaned toward Trump. This is Biden’s largest advantage in the poll since the Democratic primaries began.
Additional bad news for Donald Trump was that 57 percent of voters disapproved of Trump’s job performance while only 38 percent approved. The president’s job approval has last registered at this low point in November 2019 in the midst of impeachment. Even more alarming for the president’s re-election campaign, his approval among Republicans was down 13 points since March.
The new poll is not the only one that shows a growing lead for Joe Biden. The Real Clear Politics average shows that Biden’s lead has doubled since the end of February when he led Trump by four points. The current average of polling shows Biden with an eight-point lead.
With President Trump consistently trailing in the polls, the Trump campaign’s hopes have been pinned on the swing states. However, as Biden’s lead grows in national polling, an Electoral College victory in swing states seems less likely. Most observers believe that an Electoral College victory is almost impossible if Trump loses the popular vote by more than about five points.
Because the Electoral College is what really counts in presidential elections, here is a rundown on how the swing states are currently stacking up based on Real Clear Politics averages. You can compare these current results to my last polling analysis posted on June 4.
Arizona: Biden has expanded his average lead to four points and leads in almost all polls.
Florida: Biden has expanded his lead to 4.6 points.
Michigan: Biden has expanded his lead to 8.6 points.
North Carolina: The polling average is a tie, but Biden led in both polls from June.
Ohio: Trump leads by half a point. This is a shift from my previous analysis but the change is based on a single poll in which Trump led by three points.
Pennsylvania: Biden has expanded his lead to 5.6 points.
Wisconsin: Biden expands his lead to 5.4 percent.
The current state polling indicates that Biden is likely to flip five states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) while two states remain true tossups (North Carolina and Ohio). If these results hold until Election Day, the result would be a 318-220 Electoral College win for Joe Biden. This figure assumes that both North Carolina and Ohio would stay in the Trump column.
Keeping in mind that polls are a snapshot of the present and not predictive of the future, it is possible that Donald Trump can reverse these trends before the election. Time is slipping away, however, and the president has shown no capacity to reach beyond his base to stem the electoral bleeding. If current trends continue until November, it is likely that Donald Trump will not only lose the election but that he will do so badly.