Only Nixon could go to China and it may be that only Trump
can get immigration reform done.
There have been several attempts at immigration reform over
the past two decades. George W. Bush tried to pass a comprehensive immigration
bill in 2007 that paired a guest worker program with increased border
enforcement. Six years later, in 2013, the bipartisan “Gang of Eight” tried to
forge a similar compromise bill. Both attempts failed, largely due to
conservative opposition to “amnesty,” apparently defined by many on the right
as “anything short of deportation.”
As a consequence of these failures, 16 years after the
September 11 attacks, the US border is still not secure. We still don’t have a
way of tracking visitors who overstay their visas, as several of the al Qaeda
hijackers did. The all or nothing approach to immigration reform by Republicans
has effectively kept the border open for a decade and a half.
While Republicans derided reformers as “RINOs,” Donald Trump
campaigned on a hard line of immigration policy. Trump’s Wall, deportation proposals
and harsh rhetoric earned him an anti-immigrant reputation even though at times
he did hint that he was open to compromise.
In August 2016, Trump
told Sean Hannity, “No citizenship. Let me go a step further — they'll pay
back-taxes, they have to pay taxes, there's no amnesty, as such, there's no
amnesty, but we work with them.”
Trump’s policy balloon was similar to aspects of the Bush and
Gang of Eight proposals. Trump’s idea was quickly retracted, but the candidate was
correct that if illegal immigrants pay penalties and back taxes, then by
definition it is not an amnesty. “Amnesty” is defined as “an official pardon
for people who have been convicted of political offenses.” In contrast, the
reform proposals were methods of paying restitution for the crime of entering
the US illegally.
A year later, in September 2017, President Trump declared an
end to the President Obama’s executive amnesty, the Deferred Action for
Childhood Arrivals program, and gave Congress a six-month deadline to act.
Congress has had a problem arriving a compromise, however.
The fundamental problem is that neither side has a
supermajority and so neither can force its will on the other. For any bill to
pass, there must be a working bipartisan coalition, but anti-immigration hardliners
on the right insist on no path to legalization and liberals on the far left
insist on no Wall. Congress is at an impasse.
In a meeting with members of Congress and the press on
Tuesday, President Trump said, “We have something in common. We’d like to see
this get done.” Trump called for a “bill of love,” the New
York Times reported, that paired new immigration rules with a compromise on
DACA.
Trump rejected Democrat calls to make DACA a part of the
government funding bill, but said that an immigration bill could be discussed “the
next afternoon.” Trump signaled that the immigration bill could go beyond DACA,
telling Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), “If you want to take it that further
step, I’ll take the heat. You are not that far away from comprehensive
immigration reform.”
The question is whether Trump can stand the heat from his
base, many of who supported him largely because of his immigration stance.
Regardless of whether immigration reform is good policy, the flip-flop would
stand as one of the largest betrayals in American political history, akin to
George Herbert Walker Bush walking back his promise of “no new taxes” and
Barack Obama’s reversal of his position on same-sex marriage.
The question is whether Trump’s base would follow him to a
pro-immigration reform position. For a candidate who built his campaign around
the idea of a Wall and deportation, comprehensive immigration reform might be a
bridge too far. Nevertheless, if the nonideological Trump can move his base to
middle and forge a working coalition between Republicans and Democrats, it
could breathe new life into his presidency and open many other possibilities
for bipartisan cooperation.
President Trump faces the greatest risk in the attempt at
finding middle ground. If the president’s base abandons him, he will be left
with virtually no support and no defense against a possible impeachment. The
immigration gamble could make or break the Trump legacy.
Originally published
on The Resurgent
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