Sunday, February 15, 2009

Twenty Predictions for the Next Few Years

After observing Obama and the new Congress for almost a month, I am now ready to make my predictions for the next few years. With a few exceptions, these predictions are based on the history of the United States and other countries that have enacted similar programs. These predictions are mostly brief statements, but some have been or will be elaborated on in my blog ( So take note and if I’m right, remember it. If not, I’ll probably be even happier than you.

If you disagree, feel free to leave a comment with your own predictions.

1. The current stimulus bill will fail, just as the TARP program and the 2008 stimulus checks failed.

2. When the current stimulus bill fails, the government’s solution will be enact another, probably larger, stimulus bill.

3. Massive government spending will create high inflation as the government prints money to pay its debts.

4. The government will also raise taxes. They may not call it raising taxes. They may call it “allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire,” but most Americans who pay taxes will be keeping less of their own money.

5. The recession will be long and the recovery will be slow.

6. Job creation will be stagnant in most sectors of the economy. Government jobs will be an exception.

7. Unemployment will continue to remain at or above current levels for the next several years.

8. A nationalized healthcare system will be enacted in some form.

9. There will be new restrictions on guns and ammunition.

10. There will be at least one terrorist attack on US soil.

11. Iran will obtain a nuclear weapon.

12. Iran’s announcement may come in the form of an attack on Israel. Even Iran does not attack, it will cause an increase in tensions in the Middle East.

13. The slow economy will keep oil prices fairly low for the next few years unless/until an Iran-Israel war drives prices higher.

14. A federal carbon tax, probably in the form of a cap-and-trade system, will drive energy prices, including electric bills, higher.

15. The carbon tax will also drive the prices of other goods and services higher, due to increased production costs.

16. An attempt will be made to censor conservative media with a revived Fairness Doctrine, although it probably will have a different name.

17. The situation in Pakistan will continue to deteriorate. Militants from Afghanistan will flee across the border to safe havens there.

18. The Republicans will make large gains in the 2010 elections, possibly taking control of one or both houses of Congress.

19. The Democratic Party will become fragmented as moderate Blue Dog Democrats are pressured to support increasingly leftist legislation and their constituents become more and more angry.

20. By the time he leaves office, President Obama will have an approval rating that is equal to or lower than President George W. Bush’s approval rating at that future time.

Orlando FL

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