Although predictions that the Democrat blue wave would
founder lasted through the early hours of poll results on Election Day, the
extent of the wave has been growing in recent weeks as close races have been
decided across the country. With the news that Republican David Valadao has
been defeated in California’s 21st congressional district, the
Republican losses in the House have reached a total of 40 seats.
The win in CA-21 by Democrat TJ Cox brings the total number
of California congressional seats flipped by Democrats to seven. This includes four
seats in Orange County, which was a Republican stronghold in the past but became
a totally Democrat county in 2018.
As with several other California Republicans, Valadao, who
has represented his district since 2013, held a lead on Election night and was
initially projected to be the winner. However, absentee ballots arriving after
Election Day eroded their lead and eventually flipped the seats to the Democrats.
On Nov. 6, Valadao
led by 5,000 votes but ultimately lost by 862
votes, less than one percent of the total.
Some Republicans have speculated that fraudulent votes have
changed the course of races in California, but so far there is no evidence of
wrongdoing. California
law requires absentee voters to register seven days before the election and
mail ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and received within three days
of the election. However, vote counting in California can take longer because California accepts ballots that could
be rejected in other states. California
law requires counties to notify voters of mistakes, such as missing
signatures, that would otherwise invalidate a ballot and gives voters time to
correct them. Ballots that were sent to the wrong county are also required to
be forwarded to correct location.
Some Republicans also blame a new California
law that allows “ballot harvesting.” Effective this year, California allows
anyone to return signed and sealed absentee ballots to the local election
officials. Previously, only relatives could turn in ballots for absentee
voters. The law expressly prohibits paying vote collectors for the number of
ballots that they turn in but is silent on whether they can receive an hourly
wage for their efforts. While the new law may have led to an increase in the
number of absentee votes, the law did not favor Democrats over Republicans
except in the ability to find volunteers to collect ballots.
The outgoing chairman of the California Republican Party, former
state Sen. Jim Brulte, rejected the notion that voting irregularities led to
the Republican rout in the Golden State. Brulte told Politico that Republican
candidates were warned about changes to California election laws and failed to
take appropriate action.
“We personally briefed the candidates, the congressional
delegation, the legislators,” Brulte said, but added, “We’ve not been able to
find Republicans having a lot of success anywhere related to ballot harvesting.”
Brulte has other concerns about California as well, warning
that, “I believe California is the canary in the coal mine — not an outlier.”
In Brulte’s view, the core problem for California
Republicans was that “We have not yet
been able to figure out how to effectively communicate and get significant
numbers of votes from non-whites.”
Brulte pointed out that demographic trends indicate that “the
entire country will be majority minority by 2044” and Republicans have failed to
appeal to those new voters. Exit
polling shows that the Republican base is becoming increasingly white, male,
and rural. These changes mean that Republican candidates must “figure out how
we get votes from people who don’t look like you,” Brulte says. The problem is
pronounced in California but may soon affect
such Republican strongholds as Texas, Florida, and Georgia where Republicans won
extremely close races this year.
At this point, there is only one undecided House race left.
In North Carolina’s 19th district, Republican activists are accused
of illegal ballot harvesting that is similar to what is now legal in
California. The allegations
of electoral fraud in North Carolina could lead to a new election in that
district where Republican Mark Harris eked out a 905 vote win over Democrat Dan
McCready.
Originally published
on The
Resurgent
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