Keep eye on Iran during Korean crisis

Over the past few weeks, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has engaged in increasingly serious saber rattling. Over the past few weeks, North Korea has severed communications avenues with the South, renounced the 1953 armistice that ended combat operations in the Korean War, and placed its armed forces on standby for war.

War rumblings are nothing new on the Korean peninsula. Since the 1950s, the “hermit kingdom” of the North has been involved in literally dozens of incidents against South Korean and American forces. What makes the current situation more serious than those of the past is North Korea’s newfound strategic nuclear capability. The current situation is so serious that President Obama deployed missile interceptors to protect the American West Coast and sent two B-2 Stealth bombers on mission to South Korea to show force.

The North Korean nuclear program was discovered in 1992, six years after the country signed the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) according to the Arms Control Association. The years following gave saw a now familiar pattern of inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, subterfuge by the North Koreans, and an “Agreed Framework,” negotiated in part by Jimmy Carter, which the former president might well have hailed as the key to “peace in our time.”

The Agreed Framework was followed by 12 years of diplomatic maneuvering in which the U.S. repeatedly imposed sanctions on North Korea and the North Koreans repeatedly assured the world at several rounds of Six Party Talks that they were willing to stop working toward nuclear weapons. In 2006, the North Koreans finally exploded their first nuclear weapon. A second nuclear weapon was tested in 2009 and a third on February 12, 2013.

While working on nuclear weapons, the North Koreans were also developing their ability to deliver their nuclear payloads to South Korea and beyond. One of North Korea’s newest missiles, the Unha-3, potentially has the ability to carry a nuclear payload to the American West Coast.

While the danger presented by the North Koreans is real (the North Koreans have routinely fired upon and killed South Korean and American soldiers and sailors and have even kidnapped Japanese citizens from their homes), many foreign policy experts believe that Kim Jong Un is merely making a show of force either to get concessions from the international community or to consolidate power at home. The North Korean dictator must realize that if he provokes a nuclear war with South Korea, and by extension the United States, he and his nation will cease to exist. A materialistic leader like Kim is unlikely to be suicidal.

As the crisis is resolved or fades away, the world should learn a lesson from the Korean nuclear proliferation. North Korea’s path to nuclear status is strikingly similar to Iran’s recent nuclear history. Since Iran’s nuclear program was unveiled to the world in 2002, the country has engaged in the same pattern of engaging in diplomatic talks to delay and mitigate sanctions that was so successful for the North Koreans.

Iran’s nuclear program was delayed on several occasions by sabotage ranging from the Stuxnet computer virus to the assassinations of prominent Iranian nuclear scientists. Nevertheless the Iranian government is drawing ever closer to becoming a nuclear power.

The danger of a nuclear Iran can be seen in North Korea’s war rumblings and threats toward its neighbors. Likewise, as a conventional power, Iran has long waged covert wars and operations against its neighbors. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards prop up Hezbollah in Lebanon, aid President Assad’s struggle against rebels in Syria, and have engaged in combat with American soldiers in Iraq.

Iranian proxies have engaged in terror attacks around the world. In 1983, Iran was linked to the Beirut car bomb that killed 241 American soldiers. Iranian agents were responsible for the murder of four dissidents in Germany in 1992. More recently, Iran was implicated in a plot to use Mexican drug gangs to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States by blowing up a Washington, D.C. restaurant in 2011.

Iran is an avowed enemy of both Israel and the United States. Although Iran has not joined directly in the previous Arab-Israeli Wars (Iranians are Persians, not Arabs), Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has made no secret of Iran’s goal of destroying Israel. As previously documented by Examiner, Ahmadinejad has said that his goal is “to have a world without the United States and Zionism.”

Unlike North Korea, Iran cannot be reliably assumed to not be suicidal. In recent years, the Iranian government has become more and more apocalyptic. When giving speeches, President Ahmadinejad routinely invokes the Mahdi, a messianic figure in Shia Muslim theology, who many believe will return in the latter days to usher in a worldwide Islamic caliphate. It is quite possible that Ahmadinejad believes that it would be worth risking his entire nation to destroy Israel and to summon the Mahdi.

In fact, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, one time president of Iran and still a highly placed Iranian official said as quoted in Examiner “… application of an atomic bomb would not leave anything in Israel but the same thing would just produce damages in the Muslim world.” In other words, a nuclear strike that did not destroy the entire Muslim world would be an acceptable sacrifice to destroy Israel.

Iran’s links to terrorism also mean that it would be dangerous as a nuclear power. North Korea, also a state sponsor of terrorism, began trying to export its nuclear technology as soon as it acquired it. Less than a year after North Korea’s first nuclear test, Israeli warplanes destroyed a secret North Korean nuclear facility in Syria. The Syrian civil war might present an entirely different and more serious threat to the region if this site had not been attacked prior to the Arab Spring.

There is every reason to believe that Iran would also be an active proliferator of nuclear technology. Iran might be able to avoid national destruction by transferring a nuclear weapon to a terrorist group that would detonate it anonymously. Without a visible missile launch to point to the origin of the attack, the world might never know who was responsible for the nuclear terrorism.

Iran has worked hard in recent years to expand its sphere of influence in the Middle East, working with both sympathetic Muslim governments and terrorist proxies. With the U.S. role in the region fading as President Obama retreats from Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran’s stature in the region is growing. Even without actually using a nuclear weapon, Iran could exert its influence on the Persian Gulf to threaten vital oil supplies to the rest of the world. An Iranian nuclear weapon would necessarily spark a nuclear arms race in the Middle East as other powers such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey struggle to defend themselves from Iranian pressure.

It is becomingly increasingly apparent that Iran and North Korea may actually be working together. The World Tribune notes that since the 1980s, when Iran faced a threat, North Korea would rattle its sabers to distract the world. According to Reuters, collaboration between Iran and North Korea may go even further. A United Nations report from 2010 suggested that North Korea may have aided Iran and Myanmar with nuclear technology in addition to Syria.

In the best case scenario, the current North Korean threat will soon fade away, leaving the world to deal with the rapidly maturing Iranian threat. In the worst case scenario, the current North Korean threat may be purposely distracting from an Iranian threat that is more advanced that believed. In either case, President Obama and the United States should watch Iran closely while dealing with North Korea.

Originally published on Examiner.com:

http://www.examiner.com/article/keep-eye-on-iran-during-korean-crisis?cid=rss

Israeli attack on Iran may be imminent

As Iran inches toward production of nuclear weapons, speculation is growing that Israel may be preparing to launch a pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. Middle East observer Joel Rosenberg notes on his Flash Traffic blog that recent comments by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before the Knesset, the Israeli legislature, may hint that Israel’s patience with diplomacy is coming to an end.

As quoted on Flash Traffic, Netanyahu said, ““If I had to summarize what will happen in our region, I would use two terms: instability and uncertainty.” He continued, “The collapse of Gaddafi’s regime in Libya, the bloody incidents in Syria, the American forces leaving Iraq, the new government in Tunisia, the upcoming elections in Egypt and many other events – these are all expressions of the immense changes occurring around us. These changes can increase the instability within these countries, and the instability between countries….A nuclear Iran would pose a terrible threat on the Middle East and on the entire world. And of course, it poses a great, direct threat on us too….A security philosophy cannot rely on defense alone. It must also include offensive capabilities, which is the very foundation of deterrence. We operate and will continue to operate intensely and determinately against those who threaten the security of the State of Israel and its citizens. Our policy is guided by two main principles: the first is ‘if someone comes to kill you, rise up and kill him first,’ and the second is ‘if anyone harms us, his blood is on his own hands.’”

Rosenberg also cites an October 31 article on the Israeli news site Ynetnews.com which reports that the Obama Administration is pressuring the U.N. for new sanctions on Iran in order to preclude an Israeli strike. The U.S. diplomatic effort was prompted by an IAEA report that showed significant progress in the Iranian nuclear program.

Israel has ample reason to believe that Iran would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons to attack the Jewish state if it is able to produce them. Iran’s rhetoric has long stated its intention to wipe Israel off the map. Iranian surrogates such as Hezbollah and Hamas have been launching rocket attacks on Israeli cities with conventional warheads for years. These attacks led to the recent wars in Lebanon and Gaza as Israel sought to stop these launches.

Israel is widely believed to be responsible for covert attacks against the Iranian nuclear program over the past few years. These attacks include assassinations of leading Iranian nuclear scientists and a cyber attack on Iranian computer systems using the Stuxnet virus.

Israel successfully destroyed an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981 that was the heart of Saddam Hussein’s nuclear weapons program. The attack involved an airstrike on the Osirak reactor outside Baghdad using F-16 Falcon fighter-bombers. The attacking Israeli force did not lose a single plane.

A similar attack on Iran would be much more difficult. Where Iraq’s nuclear facilities were concentrated around Baghdad, the Iranian facilities are dispersed around the country in at least nine separate locations according to a Congressional Research Service report. An attack on Iran would also require attacking planes to travel much farther, refueling from tankers in the air, and traversing several hostile countries, which would increase the risk of detection.

Israel reportedly tested a new long-range missile on November 2, 2011 that is capable of striking targets in Iran with a nuclear warhead. Using the new “Jericho” missile would eliminate many of the risks that a strike with manned aircraft would entail. A nuclear strike would be most likely to destroy the Iranian facilities, but would open Israel to world condemnation. A conventional missile strike would be far less certain, but might be coupled with a strike by manned aircraft.

A nuclear-armed Iran could conceivably threaten the southeastern United States as well as Israel. Iran has experimented with launching SCUD missiles from cargo ships. With a range of almost 450 miles according to the Federation of American Scientists, if SCUDs were launched from ships in international waters most of the large cities on the east coast would be within range and warning time would be minimal. A missile launched hundreds of miles off the Georgia coast could target Atlanta.

Iran also has a close relationship with Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez. In a move reminiscent of the Cuban missile crisis, Iran might base longer range ballistic missiles in Venezuela. Iran’s long range Shahab-5 and -6 ICBMs have a range in excess of 4,000 miles according to the FAS which would put most of the continental U.S, from Boston to Seattle with their range. The Shahab could be used for direct attacks on American cities or an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack that could destroy much of the electrical grid across the United States, plunging the country into chaos.

Because of the secrecy surrounding the Iranian nuclear program, it is impossible to know with any certainty just how long it will be before Iran produces an operational nuclear weapon. The one certainty is that time is running out. If the Iranians are to be prevented from becoming a nuclear power, someone, most likely Israel or the United States, must take action soon. The choice may be between a conventional Middle East war in the short term or a nuclear war in the long term.

Read this article on Examiner.com:

http://www.examiner.com/conservative-in-atlanta/israeli-attack-on-iran-may-be-imminent

Iran’s apocalyptic vision

Lost amid the debates over the economy is Iran’s nuclear program. In spite of years of diplomatic efforts by Presidents Bush and Obama, Iran is inching ever closer to obtaining operational nuclear weapons.

It is unlikely that diplomatic efforts will convince the Iranians to abandon their quest for a nuclear weapon. In their desire for a diplomatic solution, many western observers fail to take into consideration the religious beliefs of the Iranian leaders. Much of Iran’s leadership, including President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, belongs to a sect of Shia Islam called the “Twelvers.”

The Twelvers await an Islamic Messiah called the Mahdi, who will one day emerge to lead the world to peace and prosperity under Muslim rule. The Mahdi, Muhammad ibn al-Hasan al Mahdi, was a Shiite Imam who lived in the ninth century. According to Shia tradition, the Mahdi was taken into occultation, supernaturally concealed from mankind by Allah. Twelvers believe that he will return to earth, followed by Jesus, at a time of great chaos and war to rescue mankind.

When Ayatollah Khomeini rose to power in the Iranian Revolution of 1979, he became the first Shia leader since Imam al-Mahdi to take the title of Imam. Khomeini was believed by many Iranians to be the Mahdi, but when he died in 1989 he had still not ushered in the era of Islamic peace and prosperity.

Since Khomeini’s death, Iran’s leaders have more overtly voiced belief in the Mahdi. Shortly after his election in 2005, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad addressed the United Nations. His speech closed with a prayer to Allah to hasten the coming of the Mahdi:

From the beginning of time, humanity has longed for the day when justice, peace, equality and compassion envelop the world. All of us can contribute to the establishment of such a world. When that day comes, the ultimate promise of all Divine religions will be fulfilled with the emergence of a perfect human being who is heir to all prophets and pious men. He will lead the world to justice and absolute peace.”

"O mighty Lord, I pray to you to hasten the emergence of your last repository, the promised one, that perfect and pure human being, the one that will fill this world with justice and peace.

Ahmadinejad, who appropriated $17 million to the Jamkaran mosque, a shrine to the Mahdi in Qom, Iran, later described the speech in a DVD translated by PBS:

On the last day when I was speaking before the assembly, one of our group told me that when I started to say "In the name of God the almighty and merciful," he saw a light around me, and I was placed inside this aura. I felt it myself.

I felt the atmosphere suddenly change, and for those 27 or 28 minutes, the leaders of the world did not blink. When I say they didn't bat an eyelid, I'm not exaggerating because I was looking at them. And they were rapt.

It seemed as if a hand was holding them there and had opened their eyes to receive the message from the Islamic republic.

In March 2011, the Iranian government released a documentary film, “The Coming is Near,” that postulated that the Mahdi’s arrival was imminent. The film also hints that both Ahmadinejad and Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, are precursors to the Mahdi’s coming.

Even though many westerners are secular and pay little attention to end-times prophecies, the important thing is that the Iranians, including members of the Iranian government who will soon have their fingers on the nuclear trigger, do believe the prophecies of the Mahdi’s return. The fact that western powers are in disarray due to the economic crisis and that coalition forces are perceived by Muslims to be in retreat in Afghanistan and Iraq must seem a divine opportunity for those who believe that a world filled with chaos and war is needed to open the door for the messianic Twelfth Imam.

Iran’s leaders have made plain that they will use nuclear weapons if they can build them. According to the Iran Press Service, Ayatollah Hashemi-Rafsanjani, a prominent cleric, said, “If a day comes when the world of Islam is duly equipped with the [nuclear] arms Israel has in possession, the strategy of colonialism would face a stalemate because application of an atomic bomb would not leave anything in Israel, but the same thing would just produce damages in the Muslim world.” President Ahmadinejad said in a 2005 speech to the “World Without Zionism” conference that Israel “must be wiped off the map” (translation by the N.Y. Times). Supreme Leader Khamenei has long agreed. In 2000, CNN reported that he said, “Iran's stance has always been clear on this ugly phenomenon (Israel). We have repeatedly said that this cancerous tumor of a state should be removed from the region.” To that end, Iran has long sponsored terrorism against both Israel and the United States using surrogates such as Hezbollah and al Qaeda.

To ignore the Iranian leaders when they they call for the destruction of Israel, the “little Satan,” and the United States, the “great Satan,” is akin to leaders of the past who ignored Adolf Hitler’s intentions that were clearly spelled out for the world in “Mein Kampf.”

Read the rest of this article on Examiner.com:

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Iranian film says Muslim messiah returning soon

Ahmadinejad (Daniella Zalcman http://dan.iella.net/)

A documentary video, “The Coming is Near,” released on March 28 by the Iranian government promotes the idea that the Mahdi, an apocalyptic Muslim messiah, is about to return to usher a new Islamic civilization.  The documentary is based in Twelver Muslim theology to which many of Iran’s highest leaders subscribe. 

Twelver Muslims are a branch of Shia (Shiite) Islam.  Shiites and Sunnis, two factions prominent in the Iraq War, split after the death of Muhammad in A.D. 632 in a disagreement over who his successor should be.  Sunnis, the dominant branch of Islam, believe that leadership should be by elected leaders, while Shiites believe that Muslim leaders should come from Muhammad’s family line.  The Shia believe that there were twelve such leaders, called imams, although many Shia religious leaders use the title today.

The twelfth imam, Imam al-Mahdi, lived in Samarra, Iraq and was last seen in A.D. 874.  Twelvers believe that the Mahdi is in “occultation,” in the spirit world, where he is still alive.  They believe that he will one day return during a time of world chaos to usher in a worldwide Islamic caliphate (kingdom). 

According to the Iranian documentary (you can see a translated version here), the second coming of the Mahdi will occur in the near future.   Although the Mahdi is not mentioned in the Koran, his return is discussed the hadiths, collections of narrative sayings by Islamic leaders.  Some of the signs of the Mahdi’s return discussed in the film include fear, earthquakes, and sedition throughout the world.  Cultural decay, such as adultery, homosexuality, and women not wearing the hejab (head scarf and/or veil) are also cited.

The film addresses recent world events and singles out the United States and Israel as sources of evil in the world.  It also specifically points to several nations that the film’s producers believe are keys to the return of the Mahdi.  Most obviously, Iraq, home to many of the world’s Shiites, is mentioned.  Twelvers believe that Iraq will be central to the conflicts that precede the Mahdi’s return as well as the eventual  capitol of the Mahdi’s worldwide Islamic caliphate.  In the final battle against Israel, Iraqi forces will march under flags that say “Alghovah.”

The film also mentions Yemen, one of many Arab nations where protesters are demanding the resignation of the ruling authoritarian government.  The film focuses on the Shiite guerillas allied with al-Qaeda.  Yemen was the origin of several bombs sent to the U.S. and U.K. in October 2010.  According to the hadiths about the Mahdi, Yemen will be the embroiled in a revolution prior to the Mahdi’s second coming.  When the Mahdi returns, one of his first battles will be against an army of one of the Yemeni tribes.  Yemeni soldiers will be among the first to enter Mecca after the Mahdi’s return.

The hadiths also refer to turmoil in Egypt.  The filmmakers say that that the people of Egypt were prophesied to rise up and kill their leader, plunging the country into turmoil.  The people of Egypt recently ousted their dictator, Hosni Mubarak, but they did not kill him.  Thus far, the Egyptian revolution has been relatively peaceful.

Saudi Arabia, the location of Mecca, also is found the film’s interpretation of Islamic prophecy.  The hadiths mention a royal line that some Muslim theologians believe is the house of Saud.  The death of a Saudi king named Abdullah is one of the key signs of the Mahdi’s return.  The current king of Saudi Arabia is named Abdullah and is suffering from an unspecified and possibly life-threatening illness.

It is perhaps unsurprising to anyone familiar with the Middle East that the Twelvers believe that Palestine (Israel) is also central to their end-time prophecies.  Imam Ali, the first imam after the Sunni-Shia split, said that Jews would come from the west and take control of Palestine while Arabs were divided.  According the film, Jewish control would last “until the time that the Arabs rid themselves of the influence of others, take back control of their affairs, and once again have strong determination.  At that time, they shall conquer the land of Palestine and the Arabs will be victorious and united.”  The destruction of Israel is the most important event marking the Mahdi’s return.

Khamenei (Dragonfire1024/Wikimedia)

Also unsurprising is the Iranian view of Iran’s role in the Mahdi’s return.  The filmmakers believe that the 1979 revolution was a precursor to the Mahdi’s return and that Iran’s purpose is to prepare the way for the Mahdi.  Muhammad is believed to have said, “In the end of time, descendents of Imam Ali will join ranks, their hearts close to one another through the cause of Ruhollah.”  The film depicts this is a reference to the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who they believe fulfills the prophecy of the man from Qom (a city in Iran where Khomeini studied). 

Imam Bagher, the fifth imam, is quoted in the film as saying, “I can see that the oppressed will rise from the East and request their rights and justice, but when it is ignored, they draw their swords and confront the enemy and that is how they succeed.  But they are not satisfied until all will revolt to see the guidance of the last messiah and their killed will be one of Martyrs.”

The film also discusses the primary characters in the Mahdi prophecies.  The Sofiani is only briefly mentioned in the film, but other sources indicate that this is a bloodthirsty leader with links to Syria.  The Sofiani will send an army to oppose the Mahdi.  He will also kill women and children.  Ironically, suicide bombers, terrorists, and Arab dictators all make war on women and children.

Seyed Khorasani is another prominent figure.  The film says that he is a high official who controls a great army and will pass the flag of Islam to the Mahdi.  He will reportedly be from the town of Bani Hashem and the province of Khorasan (although Bani Hashem is in Hormozgan rather than Khorasan).  He will also have a sign or disorder in his right hand and is associated with black flags.  The film claims that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may be Seyed Khorasani.  Khamenei is from Mashad, which is in Khorasan, and his right arm has been paralyzed since an assassination attempt in 1981.

The Yamani is also named in the film.  Yamani is a soldier of the Mahdi with strong ties to Yemen.  The film points to Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the terrorist group Hezbollah, as the Yamani.  The film claims that he was born in Yemen and immigrated to Lebanon, but western sources indicate that he was actually born in Beirut.

Finally, Shoeib-Ebne Saleh is the commander-in-chief appointed 72 months prior to the Mahdi’s second coming.  Saleh is appointed by Seyed Khorasani with the goal of capturing Jerusalem.  Not surprisingly, the identity of Shoeib-Ebne Saleh is purported to be none other than Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.  Ahmadinejad was took office on August 6, 2005.  In the estimation of the filmmakers, end time events will be occurring 72 months, six years, after Ahmadinejad’s inauguration.  That will be this August. 

Putin and Khamenei.  Ezekiel prophesied an alliance between Russia and Iran (www.kremlin.ru.)

Accordingly, Ayatollah Khamenei is quoted in the film as saying,   “I can tell you with utmost confidence:  The promise of Allah for The Coming and the establishment of a new Islamic civilization is on its way.”  The approaching date of August 2011 also explains the title of the documentary.  The leaders of Iran truly believe that the emergence of their Islamic messiah is only a few months from occurring. 

Many Georgians might be surprised to know that there is a Twelver Shia congregation in Atlanta.  The Dar-e-Abbas Islamic Center in Lilburn describes itself as adhering to the “Ashari (Twelver) Shiah tradition of Islam” on its Facebook page.  Several attempts were made to contact Dar-e-Abbas by email and telephone, but thus far no response has been received. 

Many western observers, particularly those who are secular, may discount the effect of Twelver prophetic beliefs on the geopolitical actions of Iran’s leadership.  However, Ahmadinejad and Khamenei have a long history of working to prepare the world for the Mahdi.  Their goal of a Muslim Jerusalem and an Islamic caliphate extending around the world puts them on a collision course, not only with Israel, but with the United States and most of the rest of the world.  If the Iranian regime obtains nuclear weapons, they may set in motion events that will spark a large-scale atomic holy war.

http://www.examiner.com/conservative-in-atlanta/iran-film-says-muslim-messiah-is-near"> 

Are Iranian nukes a done deal?

President Ahmadinejad (www.kremlin.ru.)

With a pair of announcements this week, it seems that Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons may be all but certain.  First, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki dashed Obama Administration hopes for negotiating an end to Iran’s nuclear enrichment.  Mottaki affirmed that Iran would not stop enriching uranium within its borders and denied that international sanctions are having any effect.

The following day, Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran’s vice president and head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, announced that Iran had taken uranium from its own mines and processed it into yellowcake, an intermediate step in achieving highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons.  This means that the entire process of enriching uranium, from mining to processing, can now take place within Iranian borders.  It also means that, as more Iranian uranium mines open, that sanctions may not be able to prevent Iran from gathering the material to make nuclear weapons.

This week’s announcements are the culmination of efforts that date back to the reign of the Shah in the 1970s.  After the Islamic Revolution, the nuclear program was placed under the control of the Revolutionary Guards, Iran’s elite military organization.  In the past ten years, western nations have engaged Iran in a series of on-again-off-again talks, which were exploited by Iran to gain time. 

If Iran gains nuclear weapons, it can probably be expected to follow the model of North Korea, which has had nuclear weapons since about 2004.  The North Koreans have become increasing belligerent, sinking a South Korean warship in March 2010 and, more recently, launching an artillery attack at a disputed South Korean island in November 2010.  This is bad enough in a remote corner of East Asia, but such provocations in the oil-rich Persian Gulf could wreak havoc on the world economy.  Gas prices in Atlanta could spike far higher than the $4.00 per gallon we experienced after Hurrican Katrina.

The North Koreans have also been involved in the spread of nuclear weapons technology.  North Korea was involved in helping Syria to build a nuclear plant.  The Syrian plant was destroyed by the Israelis in 2008.  The North Koreans have also been implicated in aiding the Iranian nuclear effort. 

Similarly, Iran would likely become more threatening to its neighbors, sparking a nuclear arms race in the Persian Gulf.  Iran has already been involved in border skirmishes with both Iraq and Afghanistan.  Oil-rich nations like Saudi Arabia would also be endangered from Iranian missiles, some of which can even reach Europe.

Likewise, Iran would likely arm other radical Islamist nations and groups with nuclear weapons.  Iran has a long history of fighting covert wars using proxy armies such as Hezbollah, the Taliban, and Iraqi insurgents.  Using nuclear-tipped missiles launched from cargo ships, operatives might launch attacks on US cities that could not be traced back to Iran.  A missile launched from a ship hundreds of miles outside of Savannah could easily strike Atlanta.

For years, observers have held out hope that internal strife would bring down the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei.  Now, however, it seems that the government has consolidated its control of the country.  Likewise, many believed that President Bush would not leave office without striking at the Iranian nuclear facilities or, failing that, that the Israelis would strike.

As noted earlier, the Israelis destroyed a Syrian reactor in 2008 and Saddam Hussein’s Osirak reactor in 1981.  So far, there has been no overt Israeli action, but many believe that covert killings of Iranian nuclear scientists and a cyber attack using the Stuxnet computer virus can be traced to Israel. 

An airstrike against Iran would be much more difficult for Israel to pull off than the raids on Baghdad and Syria.  The distances involved are much greater and Iran has been purchasing upgraded air defense systems from Russia as well as developing its own surface-to-air missiles.  Further, Iran’s nuclear facilities are dispersed around the country rather than being concentrated in one place.  This means that far more attacking aircraft are needed to do the job and the chances of destroying all facilities are more remote.

There is an even greater likelihood that Iran would use its nuclear weapons than North Korea.  While North Korea is a family regime bent on perpetuating itself, Iran is an Islamic theocracy.  Iran’s leaders have two main goals.  The first is to eliminate Israel and the United States.  President Ahmadinejad has said that his goal is “to have a world without the United States and Zionism” and that Israel “must be wiped off the map.”  The poster for Iran’s 2005 World Without Zionism conference shows a shattered ball bearing the American flag on the ground as a ball bearing the Israeli flag drops.

Supreme Leader Khamenei (www.sajed.ir)

The historical nuclear policy will not work with Iran because of the Iranian government’s second goal.  Ahmadinejad and Khamenei are devotees of the Mahdi, a Shia Muslim version of the Messiah.  They believe that they can trigger the Mahdi’s return by sowing fear, destruction and chaos in the world.

Further, Iranians believe that they would win a nuclear war with Israel.  As Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani put it, “… application of an atomic bomb would not leave anything in Israel but the same thing would just produce damages in the Muslim world.”  In other words, even if Iran were totally destroyed in a retaliatory strike, the Muslim world would live on.  The destruction of Iran would be considered an acceptable price for the destruction of Israel.

At this point, it is all but certain that Iran will never voluntarily give up its quest for nuclear weapons.  It is almost as likely that President Obama will never order a US strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.  The only remaining possibility for deterring President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader is an Israeli strike.  Whether the Israelis could succeed is an open question.  While military action could spark a regional war in reprisal, it is a certainty that doing nothing will mean that the Iranians will soon have the means as well as the motive to launch a nuclear attack.

Waiting for the Mahdi: A Look at Twelver Islam

The Muslim world is separated into two main groups of adherents, the Sunni and the Shiite (or Shia). The Sunnis are the dominant group with Shiites being found predominantly in Iraq and Iran. Of the Shia, the largest group is the Twelvers, or Imami Muslims.

The schism dates back to death of Mohammed in AD 632. The Shia believe that the head of the Islamic religion is passed through the bloodline of Mohammed or imams selected by Allah. The Shia believe that leadership of Islam passed to Mohammed’s cousin and son-in-law, Ali. The word “Shia” is a shortened form of “Shia-t-Ali,” which means “the party of Ali.” Shia leaders are called “imams.”

Sunnis, on the other hand, believe that the legitimate head of Islam is elected from among the qualified Islamic clerics. Sunnis chose Abu Bakr, a close friend and protégé of Mohammed, as the first Caliph of the greater Islamic nation. The word “Sunni” means “one who follows in the traditions of the prophet.” The Shia have always rejected these elected Sunni leaders.

There were a total of twelve imams beginning with Imam Ali. The last imam was Mahmoud al-Mahdi who lived in Samarra, Iraq and was last seen in AD 874. Twelvers believe that al-Mahdi disappeared into “occultation,” hiding in the spirit world, and is still alive. The Mahdi, as the twelfth imam is known, supposedly communicated from the spirit world through intermediaries called Babs, or “gates.” The last Bab died in AD 941, marking the end of the lesser occultation and the beginning of the greater occultation. In the greater occultation, the Mahdi can no longer communicate with earth until he returns to earth shortly before the Final Judgment and the end of the world.

Twelver theology indicates that the twelfth imam will one day return when the world is in a time of great chaos and upheaval. The Mahdi will return to usher in a period of peace and justice under a worldwide Islamic caliphate. They also believe that Jesus Christ will return to rule alongside the Mahdi as his aide.

It is important to note that Sunnis do not accept these teachings about the Mahdi because they do not appear in the Koran itself. Instead these teachings are found in the hadiths, a collection of the sayings of Mohammed and other traditions that were compiled by his followers. The Sunni and Shia branches of Islam each recognize their own separate hadiths.

There are several signs that Shia believe will precede the Mahdi’s return. First is that it will be in a time of fear, violence, and chaos. Second, there will be a battle in the city of Mina, Saudi Arabia. Mina is near Mecca and accommodates many pilgrims making the hajj, or pilgrimage, to Islam’s holy city. The pilgrims will be robbed and many will be killed. They also believe that gold will be discovered along the Euphrates River. The find will provoke a battle in which people are killed. Shia also expect voices from the sky and an angel who will proclaim, “This is the Mahdi. Follow him.”

A major sign is the emergence of the Sufyani. This leader will be linked to Syria and will be a bloodthirsty ruler who will kill women and children. The Sufyani will send his army to capture the Mahdi, but the army will be swallowed up by the deserts of Saudi Arabia.

The hadiths also provide a description of the returning Mahdi. His name will be Mohammed and his father’s name will be Abdullah. He will be of average build and height. He will have a shiny forehead and a high nose. His complexion will be light, but his hair will be dark. He will also have a slight stutter. The Mahdi will appear from the east with an army marching under black banners.

When he appears, some of the people of Makkah, Saudi Arabia will give him bayat, their allegiance. He will be miraculously protected from harm as a Syrian army comes for him. This will inspire other Syrians and Iraqis to give him their allegiance.

The Mahdi’s first battle will be against the army of a Yemeni tribe, which he will win. The Mahdi will also fight a great war against a large number of Christians. Although many Muslims will be killed, the Mahdi will win the war and capture Constantinople (Istanbul, Turkey). The Mahdi will then become Caliph, or ruler, for a period of seven years.

Next, the Dajjal will appear. The Dajjal is a Muslim equivalent of the Antichrist. He is a fat, one-eyed man with a broad chest and sharp teeth. On his forehead is the word “infidel.” The Dajjal will be a deceiver who will trick people into following him. He will be able to spread wealth among his followers. He will fail to take the Saudi city of Medina, and will then turn toward Damascus with his army of 70,000 Jews.

As the Mahdi and his army prepare to face the Dajjal, Jesus will descend from heaven. His breath will kill much of the Dajjal’s army before killing the Dajjal himself with a spear. Afterwards, the Muslim army will kill the remainder of the Dajjal’s Jewish army. When they attempt to hide behind a rock, the rock will call the Muslims to kill the hiding Jew. Jesus will then become a Caliph and spread Islam throughout the world.

While many people, especially in Western countries, reject this Shia theology out of hand, it is important to realize that it doesn’t matter whether we believe it; what matters is that thousands of Muslims around the world believe it. Twelvers have already played a major role in a recent armed conflict: the Iraq War.

Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr led his Mahdi Army against Iraqi government and Coalition forces for several years after the fall of Saddam Hussein. In August 2004, he went so far as to call upon his followers to rise up and fight US troops. The Mahdi Army figured prominently in Iraq’s sectarian strife for several years until the “surge” of US troops. In August 2008, al-Sadr announced plans to have the Mahdi Army’s military operations stand down, largely due to a drop in Iranian funding. The Mahdi Army remains a coherent organization, but is now focused on Shiite spirituality.

Devotees of the Mahdi also figure prominently in the Iranian government. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is widely believed to have been a member of the Hojjatieh Society. This society was banned by the Ayatollah Khomeini after the Iranian Revolution because its members opposed the creation of an Islamic Republic, believing instead that the Mahdi should be the one to establish such a theocratic government. Along with Ahmadinejad, several members of his cabinet are believed to be Hojjatieh members.

Ahmadinejad has a long history as a follower of the Mahdi. In his former role as mayor of Tehran, he built a grand avenue for the Mahdi’s return and, as president, built a rail line from Tehran to Jamkaran, where the Mahdi is believed to have appeared at a wishing well. He also allocated $17 million to renovate the Jamkaran mosque. At his first cabinet meeting, Ahmadinejad required his cabinet members to swear an oath to the Mahdi.

More importantly, Ahmadinejad has also spearheaded Iran’s efforts to build a nuclear weapon. In numerous speeches since his election, he has spoke of his devotion to the Mahdi and his belief that the Mahdi will return soon. For example, he publicly stated that the goal of his administration was to establish a government and society that would be “a platform for the reappearance of the Mahdi.”

On his addresses to the United Nations, Ahmadinejad has also invoked the Mahdi. He ended his 2005 speech with a prayer: “O mighty lord, I pray to you to hasten the emergence of your last repository, the Promised One, that perfect and pure human being, the One that will fill this world with justice and peace.” He was not referring to Barack Obama.

Ahmadinejad later recalled, “One of our group told me that when I started to say ‘In the name of God the almighty and merciful,’ he saw a light around me, and I was placed inside this aura. I felt it myself. I felt the atmosphere suddenly change, and for those 27 or 28 minutes, the leaders of the world did not blink... And they were rapt. It seemed as if a hand was holding them there and had opened their eyes to receive the message from the Islamic republic.”

Ahmadinejad has also stated his intention to wipe Israel “off the map,” but he doesn’t stop there. He also says that “the Imam gave him the presidency for a single task: provoking a ‘clash of the civilizations’ in which the Muslim world, led by Iran, takes on the ‘infidel’ West, led by the United States, and defeats it.”

For those who take Ahmadinejad’s apocalyptic statements seriously, it is disturbing to think that a man who believes that he is called by Allah to sow chaos and destruction in the world may one day soon have nuclear weapons at his command. As Ayatollah Khamenei said, “It is the mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to erase Israel from the map of the region.”

Ahmadinejad’s meteoric rise to power from Tehran mayor has fueled his belief that Allah has a special role for him. In reality, it appears that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei helped to pave the way for Ahmadinejad. While Iran does have elections, the outcomes are heavily influenced by the Supreme Leader and his Revolutionary Guards.

It is also striking to note that belief in the Mahdi also has several parallels in Biblical end-time prophecy. The most obvious is that the Mahdi will appear as a militaristic savior during a time of fear, violence, and war. This closely resembles the Biblical Beast who will appear to lead a world government amid a time of God’s judgment on the earth.

In the theology of both religions, the end-time ruler will unify the world under a single religious and economic system. Both rulers will make war on Christians and Jews as well. Finally, both leaders will marshal their forces for apocalyptic end-time battles. As with the Mahdi, the Beast, or Antichrist, will also rule for a seven-year period, referred to by Christian theologians as the Tribulation. Also in both cases, Jesus will return at the end of the seven-year period. In Christian theology, He will return to judge the Antichrist and his minions. In Twelver theology, He will be a deputy to the Mahdi.

If Iran is allowed to obtain nuclear weapons, it is extremely likely that Ahmadinejad and Khamenei will use them to stoke the fires of fear and chaos in the world. It is likely that these weapons would be used against either Israel or the United States in an attempt to create a suitable environment for the return of the Mahdi. With the Iranian government convinced that they are doing the work of Allah, diplomacy is unlikely to convince them to shut down their weapons programs. It also likely that any attempt to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities would touch off a holy war as well. At this point, a war with Iran is extremely likely regardless of the West’s course of action.



Sources:
Rosenberg, Joel C. “Inside the Revolution,” Tyndale House, Carol Stream, IL 2009.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/intro/islam-ithna-ashari.htm
http://www.ezsoftech.com/akram/shia.asp
http://i-cias.com/e.o/twelvers.htm
http://islam.about.com/cs/divisions/f/shia_sunni.htm
http://www.inplainsite.org/html/imam_mahdi.html
http://www.wsu.edu/~dee/SHIA/HIDDEN.HTM
http://www.inter-islam.org/faith/mahdi1.htm
http://www.inter-islam.org/faith/Majorsigns.html
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iraq/al-sadr.htm
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,397483,00.html
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GI09Ak01.html
http://www.meforum.org/1985/ahmadinejad-and-the-mahdi
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/com-1_12_06_DP.html

Ft. Worth TX