Louisiana Governor Race Goes To Runoff

Republicans are claiming victory in Lousiana after Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards failed to win more than 50 percent of the vote and avoid a runoff in his re-election campaign.

Edwards, a conservative, pro-life Democrat who signed Lousiana’s heartbeat bill earlier this year, won 46.6 percent of the vote in the multiparty primary. Edwards faced a total of five other candidates in the primary.

Republican Eddie Rispone, a Baton Rouge businessman, finished second with 27.4 percent of the vote. Edwards and Rispone will face off in the general election on Nov. 16.

Republicans are encouraged because Ralph Abraham, another Republican, finished third with 23.6 percent. The combined total for the two Republicans was 51 percent of the vote, which means that, if Republicans can manage to turn out their voters again next month, they may be able to eke out a victory against Edwards, the only Democratic governor in the South. The three other candidates in the race, another Republican, another Democrat, and an independent, each garnered less than one percent of the vote.

The national Republican Party staged a large push late in the campaign against Edwards. The effort included a rally by President Trump in Lake Charles on the night before the election.

Forcing a runoff does not mean that the Republicans are assured of victory, however. In the 2015 election, Edwards again won a plurality in the primary in which three Republican candidates split a total of 57 percent of the vote. In the runoff, Edwards beat Republican David Vitter by 56 – 44 percent.

https://theresurgent.com/2019/10/13/louisiana-governor-race-goes-to-runoff/

Democrats Can Be Pro-Life In Louisiana

Can Democrats be pro-life? It turns out that they can be in Louisiana. When Pelican State legislators voted this week to pass a fetal heartbeat bill, it was the result of a bipartisan effort between Democrats and Republicans.

The Louisiana law, which bans abortion after a fetal heartbeat is detected and contains no exception for rape or incest, was sponsored by a Democrat. Senator John Milkovich, who represents Shreveport, introduced the bill in the Senate while Rep. Valarie Hodges of Livingston Parish, a Republican, shepherded the bill through the House.

In the initial Senate vote, there was no Republican opposition and only Democrats voted, one for and one against the bill. Ten Senate Republicans and 13 Democrats did not vote. The final bill passed the House with overwhelming support. Republicans voted in a bloc for passage while Democrats were split almost equally.

After passage, the bill went to the governor, also a Democrat, to be signed into law. Gov. John Bel Edwards, who is the South’s only Democratic governor, signed the bill on Thursday afternoon.

In a statement, the governor said, “As I prepare to sign this bill, I call on the overwhelming bipartisan majority of legislators who voted for it to join me in continuing to build a better Louisiana that cares for the least among us and provides more opportunity for everyone.”

NOLA.com notes that Edwards, who is rated at 100 percent by Louisiana Right to Life, is a Catholic who views anti-abortion policy and the Medicaid expansion as both pro-life policies. The paper points out that other prominent Louisiana Democrats are also staunchly pro-life.

Nevertheless, Bart Stupak, a former Wisconsin congressman who is currently on the board for Democrats for Life says that Edwards’ pro-life stance will make fundraising from the big Democrat donors difficult. “If you’re trying to raise money on the national level, it gets very, very difficult,” he said. “There will be no money. There will be no help.”

Abortion has become a litmus test for many in the party, but Louisiana Democrats have shown that they are not afraid to stand up for life. National Democrats should learn from their example and allow Democratic candidates and officials to follow their conscience on the issue.

Opinions on the abortion issue vary across the country and locking their candidates into a one-size-fits-all pro-choice position often hurts Democratic candidates who run in conservative states. Many people who would support Democrats on other issues cannot bring themselves to vote for pro-abortion candidates. If Democrats can learn to tolerate pro-lifers in their midst, the party would be stronger for its ideological diversity.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Brace Yourself: More Abortion Laws Are Coming

It has been a bad week for abortion proponents and it just keeps getting worse. After Georgia passed its heartbeat bill last week, Alabama followed with an even more restrictive bill that was signed into law on Wednesday. Now it seems that more states are poised to follow in passing bills that severely limit abortions within their borders.

The Associated Press reports that the Missouri Senate approved a bill by a 24-10 vote that would ban abortions after eight weeks. The bill contains exceptions for medical emergencies but not for cases of rape or incest. The bill must now be approved by the House of Representatives, which is controlled by Republicans, before it can be signed into law by Gov. Mike Parson, also a Republican.

Another state, Louisiana, is also considering a heartbeat bill that would ban abortions on unborn babies old enough to have a detectable heartbeat. The Louisiana bill contains exceptions to prevent the mother’s death, if there is “a serious risk of the substantial and irreversible impairment of a major bodily function,” or if the pregnancy is deemed “medically futile,” but also omits exceptions for rape and incest per the AP. The bill has been approved by House and Senate committees but has not yet been voted on by either chamber.

While much of the recent abortion debate is centered on the lack of exceptions for rape and incest, the Guttmacher Institute found that abortions are rarely performed for those reasons. In a large study that ranged from 1987 through 2004, only one percent of abortions were due to rape and less than half a percent were due to incest.

In addition to Georgia and Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Ohio have also passed new laws aimed at reducing the number of abortions. The laws are designed to test the Supreme Court’s adherence to the Roe v. Wade precedent in the wake of the addition of two new Trump-appointed justices, Neal Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh. It is likely that the Court will strike down portions of the laws, if not rule them entirely unconstitutional, but a ruling would let legislators know how far they can go in regulating abortion in their states.

Regardless of the uproar, the laws have strong support among Republicans who control the state legislatures in these states. With the failure of the national GOP to defund Planned Parenthood and two new friendly justices on the Supreme Court, pro-life advocates hope that the tide may finally be about to turn.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Bobby Jindal calls for national revival

Speaking at a prayer rally in Louisiana last Saturday, Bobby Jindal called for a nationwide Christian revival. The Louisiana governor told attendees that spiritual renewal is needed to turn the country around.

According to ABC News, Jindal told the group, “"We can't just elect a candidate and fix what ails our country. We can't just pass a law and fix what ails our country. We need a spiritual revival to fix what ails our country.”

Other reports said that Jindal gave a personal account of his conversion to Catholicism. The 15-minute remarks, summarized in the Guardian, describe how Jindal became disillusioned with religion after the death of his grandfather. Later, a friend gave him a Bible that Jindal he would have sold if it hadn’t been personally inscribed. He was also influenced by a “pretty girl” in high school who wanted to be a Supreme Court justice so she could “help save innocent human lives right here in America” by restricting abortion.

Jindal said that his conversion came while at LSU in a chapel service that he had attended to hear a friend sing. He was moved to drop to his knees and worship by a film depicting Jesus Christ on the cross.

“God chose that moment to hit me harder than I’ve ever been hit before,” Jindal said.

Jindal, who is seriously considering a presidential campaign in 2016, skipped an event in Iowa attended by other potential candidates to attend the prayer rally. Donald Trump, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, and Chris Christie were in attendance at the Freedom Summit in Des Moines according to National Journal.

Jindal is not alone in calling for a return to Judeo-Christian values and religion in America. Many conservatives link the destruction of marriage and the family with the explosive increase in entitlement spending. The debate over same-sex marriage, federal mandates on abortifacient and contraceptive drugs, and the continuing controversy over abortion have created a crisis for religious freedom in America.

The Louisiana rally was sponsored by the American Family Association, a pro-family group that is considered “extremist” by the Southern Poverty Law Center due to its opposition to gay rights and same-sex marriage.

According to the Guardian, Jindal concluded his remarks saying, “It is like God has given us the book of life. He doesn’t let us see the pages for today, tomorrow. He doesn’t promise us everything will go the way we want. He doesn’t promise you your sports team will win, or you’ll get the promotion at work. He doesn’t promise you you’re going to win the next election or that everything’s going to happen like you want. But he does let you see the last page in the book of life. And on the last page, our God wins.”

Read the full article on Examiner.com

Independent and third party candidates may spoil Senate races

With control of the Senate coming down to a few seats that are too close to call, independent and third party candidates are positioned to play the spoiler in a number of races. In an unusual development, two independent candidates are making strong campaigns in two states. In several other states, Libertarian candidates are gaining just enough traction to affect the outcome of a close race. One three-way race pits a Tea Party favorite against another Republican and a Democrat.

The biggest outside threat to a race comes in Kansas, where independent Greg Orman is in a statistical tie with Republican incumbent Pat Roberts. The Democratic candidate, Chad Taylor, dropped out under pressure from national Democrats to step aside for Orman, a longtime Democrat supporter according to the Washington Examiner. Orman refuses say which party he would caucus with if he becomes the deciding vote in the Senate.

Another independent candidate is South Dakota’s Larry Pressler. Pressler is a former Republican congressman and Senator who supported Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Pressler, whose policy agenda closely aligns with Democratic positions these days, polled almost even with Mike Rounds (R), a former governor and the favorite to win the seat in early October. The poll, from Survey USA, also found that Pressler voters preferred Rick Weiland, the Democratic candidate, over Mike Rounds by almost a two-to-one margin.

The Libertarian Party is also positioned to spoil a number of races. The Libertarian website notes that there are Libertarian candidates on the ballot in nearly every battleground Senate race. These include Mark Fish in Alaska, Nathan LaFrane in Arkansas, Gaylon Kent in Colorado, Amanda Swafford in Georgia, Doug Butzier in Iowa, Randall Batson in Kansas, David Patterson in Kentucky, Roger Roots in Montana, and Sean Hough in North Carolina.

These Libertarian candidates have no chance of winning. Most don’t even show up in the polls, but they do have the potential to throw close races to the Democrats. Libertarian candidates often draw support disproportionately from voters who would otherwise support the Republican candidate.  This was the case last year in the Virginia gubernatorial election where a Libertarian candidate helped Democrat Terry McAuliffe eke out a three point victory over Ken Cuccinelli. In the Virginia race, and likely in others as well, Democratic fundraisers bankrolled the Libertarian candidate in order to dilute conservative votes according to campaign finance filings published by The Blaze.

In Georgia and Louisiana, candidates are required to get over 50 percent of the vote to win. If no candidate gets 50 percent, the top two finishers will compete in a runoff election. At this point, no candidate in either state is polling at more than 50 percent.

In Georgia, the most recent poll, by Landmark Communications, shows David Perdue (R) and Michelle Nunn (D) in a dead heat with 47 percent each. Amanda Swafford, the Libertarian candidate is at three percent and two percent are undecided. With Swafford in the race, it is likely that Perdue and Nunn will face each other in a runoff in January.

In Lousiana, incumbent Mary Landrieu (D) faces two Republicans. The Real Clear Politics average shows Landrieu with a slight lead over her two opponents, but falling far short of the necessary 50 percent. The leading Republican, Bill Cassidy, trails Landrieu by three points while Rob Maness, the Tea Party favorite, is a distant third with eight percent. Polling shows that Cassidy leads Landrieu in a two-way race and should and should have an edge in the runoff in December.

In both cases, a runoff would favor Republicans says analyst Dick Morris. Republican voters tend to be more motivated to vote in runoff elections and the absence of the third candidate would likely shift more votes to the GOP candidates. Additionally, Morris speculates that momentum after the Nov. 4 general election will likely favor Republicans, especially if the party captures the necessary six seats to control the Senate in the first round of elections.

In every race, with the sole exception of Kansas, the final victor is certain to be either a Democrat or a Republican. The question is whether enough voters will vote for independent and third party candidates to affect the outcome of the other races and perhaps the balance of the Senate.

Read the full article on Examiner.com

New Senate polls are good news for GOP

With just under a month to go until this year’s midterm elections, a number of new polls released this week on Monday and Tuesday, October 12 and 13, bring encouraging news for Republicans. The new round of polling found Republicans leading in the races for six battleground Senate seats. Additionally, one seat where the Democratic incumbent had led slightly in previous polls is now tied and in another a Republican challenger is closing the gap.

In Alaska, polling since the end of August has showed that Republican challenger Dan Sullivan is building a lead against incumbent Democrat Mark Begich. The most recent poll, by Rasmussen, released on Monday, gives Sullivan a three point lead. Other recent polls detailed on Real Clear Politics have Sullivan leading by as much as six points while Begich has not led a nonpartisan poll since July.

Two new polls from Colorado released on Monday both show Democratic Senator Mark Udall trailing Republican Cory Gardner. A Denver Post poll found Gardner with a two point lead while High Point/Survey USA found him leading by four points. The High Point poll is outside the margin of error for the poll. Polling has trended toward Gardner since mid-September according to Real Clear Politics.

In Iowa, the story was similar. Rasmussen polling released on Sunday found that Republican Joni Ernst is solidifying her lead over the Democratic incumbent, Bruce Braley. The three point lead, equal to the poll’s margin of error, may indicate that Ernst is starting to pull away.

In South Dakota, Republican Mike Rounds was considered a shoe-in for the open Senate seat vacated by Sen. Tim Johnson (D). Rounds was handily leading Democrat Rick Weiland before the entrance of independent Larry Pressler into the race. In the three-way race, Rounds still leads by four percent, just above the margin of error, according to a new poll by Harper, a Republican polling firm. Rounds also led by three percent in a Survey USA poll from last week. According to National Review, Pressler shares many policy objectives with Democrats and endorsed Obama in 2008 and 2012.

In Kansas, where Republican Sen. Pat Roberts is fighting a surprisingly tough battle against another independent, Greg Orman, the most recent poll, by Remington Research, shows Roberts with a two point lead. Roberts’ lead over Orman, who is widely believed to be a closet Democrat, is within the margin of error. Previous polls are split between the two candidates and the race must still be considered a tossup even though the momentum is favoring Roberts.

Recent polling in North Carolina may show a shift in public opinion there. A Survey USA poll released today shows Republican Thom Tillis with a one point lead, the first time that he has led incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan in months. Real Clear Politics shows a slow trend toward Tillis since August.

In New Hampshire, once considered a safe Democrat seat, Republican Scott Brown, a former Massachusetts senator, has pulled to within striking distance of Democrat Jeanne Shaheen. As recently as the end of September, Shaheen held a double-digit lead according to American Research Group. On Monday, two new polls showed that the race is now a dead heat. High Point/Survey USA shows Shaheen with a mere two point lead while New England College showed Brown with a one point lead.

The single bright spot for Democrats is Georgia where Republican David Perdue is trying to preserve a lead over Democrat Michelle Nunn for the open seat of retiring Republican Saxby Chambliss. Perdue has led consistently since early September, but Monday’s WSB-TV poll now shows a 46-46 tie.

In a number of other tossup races there have been no recent polls. Republican candidates are heavily favored to pick up Democratic seats in Montana and West Virginia and hold slight leads in Arkansas and Louisiana. In Kentucky, Republican Mitch McConnell is the slight favorite to retain his seat over Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes.

Also on Monday, a Gallup poll found that voters trust Republicans on seven of 13 election issues. Of the issues most important to voters, five are Republican issues. These include the economy, jobs, the way the federal government is working, ISIS and the budget deficit. Democrats scored highest on handling equal pay for women.

The final scorecard is a likely Republican gain of eight seats in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. In two more states, North Carolina and New Hampshire, Republican pickups look increasingly possible. There are no clear Democratic pickups although Georgia and Kansas (where Orman would likely caucus with Democrats) must be considered possible. At minimum, a net Republican gain of six to eight seats is likely, which would pass control of the Senate to the GOP. If current trends toward the Republicans continue, it is possible that the GOP would gain as many as ten seats.

Read the full article on Elections Examiner

Polls point to Republican wave

After months in a virtual deadlock, recent polling is now pointing toward a Republican wave in this year’s midterm elections. Polls from September 17 and recent weeks indicate that public opinion is breaking strongly toward the GOP.

The most recent poll, released Sept. 17, from CBS and the New York Times shows a strong advantage for Republicans in congressional elections. The poll found that 49 percent of registered voters would prefer the Republican candidate if the election were held today. Only 42 percent would prefer the Democrat.

A CNN poll from last week also points toward a significant movement toward Republicans. This poll found that voters favored Republicans by a 49-45 percent margin. Most significantly, the CNN poll found that independent voters favored Republicans by a 15 point margin. In the past, independent voters have often swayed elections toward the Democrats.

Rasmussen’s generic congressional ballot also shows a subtle shift toward Republicans. The Sept. 15 poll found that likely voters prefer Republicans by a 41-39 margin. This poll has typically reflected a close margin over the past several months.

From August to September 2014, Gallup’s party affiliation poll showed a startling nine point swing. In one month’s time, the poll moved from 46-42 percent in favor of the Democrats to 47-42 in favor of the Republicans when “leaners” are included. When leaners are not counted, the two parties are in a statistical tie. This poll has consistently favored Democrats for the past several years.

There are indications that this shift in national mood may be beginning to impact the hotly contested races that will decide control of the Senate as well. Several recent polls show that tossup races may be trending for the Republicans:

· The two most recent polls from Kansas, one from Rasmussen released today, the other from Fox News released Sept. 17, show incumbent Pat Roberts with a small lead over Democratic-leaning independent Greg Orman.

· A Quinnipiac poll released on Sept. 18 shows that Republican Cory Gardner is now leading Democratic incumbent Mark Udall in Colorado by eight points. A USA Today poll the day before showed Gardner with a one point lead.

· In Iowa, Quinnipiac found Republican Joni Ernst up by six points over incumbent Bruce Braley. Fox News showed the race in a tie the same day.

· In Louisiana, Fox News found incumbent Mary Landrieu trailing Republican challenger Bill Cassidy by an astonishing 13 points in a two-way race. In an open primary, Cassidy leads by four points.

Two races where the shift in public opinion has not yet made an impact are North Carolina, where Sen. Kay Hagan is holding a lead over Republican Thom Tillis, and New Hampshire, where Sen. Jeanne Shaheen consistently leads former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown. In both cases, the Democratic incumbents have single-digit leads over their Republican challengers. In other key races, such as Alaska and Arkansas, there are no recent polls.

One possible reason for the shift in public opinion is the news from Iraq. The shocking stories of massacres by ISIS and the collapse of the Iraqi army, to say nothing of videos showing the beheadings of two American hostages, have undermined President Obama’s foreign policy and the credibility of the Democrats on national security and terrorism.

Whether this week’s polls are truly the first indications of a Republican wave or a blip will soon be apparent. If the polls are accurate, with elections less than six weeks away, there will be little time for Democrats to reverse the trend toward the Republicans.

Read the full article on Elections Examiner

Republican Senate majority looms likely

Three months prior to the midterm congressional elections, polling is giving Republicans ample reason to be optimistic. Prominent political analysts estimate that enough Senate seats will change hands to create a Republican Senate majority. With new polls released on August 7, polling points toward a Republican Senate majority next year. August 7 also brought the revelation that a Democratic incumbent would withdraw from his reelection campaign.

As Examiner reported in March, a total of 36 Senate seats are up for reelection this year. Democrats are defending 21 seats and Republicans 15. The majority of these seats are safe for both parties, but 16 races are competitive enough to offer a challengers a chance. Republicans currently hold 45 seats in the Senate and would need to win an additional six seats to form a majority.

Alaska is still considered a tossup by both the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, both respected political analysts. With the Republican primary not until August 19, two recent polls give Democratic incumbent Mark Begich a slight lead over two potential Republicans challengers. A Public Policy poll from August 7 showed Begich leading former Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan by four points. A second Public Policy poll put Begich ahead of former Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell by three points. On July 28, a CBS poll showed Sullivan trailing Begich by 12 points and Treadwell trailing by two.

Public Policy found that Sullivan leads the primary polling with 35 percent. Treadwell is close behind at 29 percent, while 2010 Senate nominee Joe Miller is a distant third with 20 percent. The eventual nominee is likely to get a bump in the polls from his victory that may well boost him ahead of Sen. Begich.

Arkansas, another Democratic seat, is also a tossup. Incumbent Mark Pryor trailed Republican Tom Cotton by two points in a Public Policy poll from August 5.

Colorado leans Democrat according Larry Sabato, but is a tossup in Cook’s estimation. The most recent poll, by CBS, shows incumbent Mark Udall (D) with a narrow lead over Republican Cory Gardner.

Georgia is also a split decision with Sabato rating the seat of the retiring Saxby Chambliss as leaning Republican while Cook calls it a tossup. Two recent polls released on July 28 were also a split decision. CBS gave newly anointed Republican candidate David Perdue a six point lead over Democrat Michelle Nunn and Landmark Communications found a four point lead for Nunn. The race will likely start to solidify soon now that Republican nomination has finally been decided.

Iowa is considered a tossup by both analysts. Democratic Senator Tom Harkin is retiring, pitting Democrat Bruce Braley against Republican Joni Ernst. The July 28 CBS poll found a dead heat with Ernst leading by one point.

Kentucky is rated likely Republican by Sabato and a tossup by Cook. Nominally considered a safe seat, Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell was weakened by a tough primary challenge from a Tea Party candidate. A July 29 poll in the Courier Journal showed McConnell with a scant two point lead over Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes. The CBS poll released one day earlier gave McConnell a four point lead.

Louisiana is yet another tossup. CBS found that Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu trails Republican Bill Cassidy by one point.

Michigan is another split decision with Sabato calling the race a likely Democratic victory and Cook labeling it a tossup. The current senator, Carl Levin (D), is retiring. The most recent poll, by CBS, showed Republican Terry Lynn Land with a one point lead over Democrat Gary Peters.

Minnesota is a likely Democratic hold in the view of both analysts. Incumbent Al Franken leads likely Republican candidate Mike McFadden by 12 points in the CBS poll. The Minnesota primary will be held next week on August 12.

Mississippi is considered to be a probable Republican hold in spite of the bruising and still disputed primary campaign that left Republican incumbent Thad Cochran in the race. CBS found Cochran with a 14 point lead over Democrat Travis Childers. The wild card in this race is Cochran’s primary challenger, Chris McDaniel, who has still not conceded defeat and may challenge the primary results in court.

Montana is a likely Republican pickup according to both analysts. Democratic incumbent John Walsh trailed challenger Steve Daines by 16 points according to CBS and was unlikely to make up the deficit. He announced on August 7 that he was dropping out of the race in the midst of a scandal involving plagiarism in a 2007 research paper at the Army War College.

North Carolina is another tossup. Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan trails Republican Thom Tillis by five points in the most recent Rasmussen poll on August 7. A Civitas poll two days earlier showed Tillis with a two point lead and the CBS poll showed a one point Tillis lead. The race is still very close but is trending toward Tillis.

New Hampshire is rated as a Democratic hold by both analysts. Jeanne Shaheen, the incumbent, led former Massachusetts senator, Scott Brown, by 10 points according to CBS.

South Dakota is a second likely Republican pickup. Democrat Tim Johnson is retiring and Republican Mike Rounds is favored over Democrat Rick Weiland. There are no recent polls for this race.

Virginia is a likely Democratic hold. Incumbent Mike Warner leads former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie by 23 points in a Hampton University poll.

West Virginia is a third likely pickup for the GOP. CBS shows Republican Shelly Moore Capito leading Democrat Natalie Tennant by eight points. The seat is being vacated by Democrat Jay Rockefeller, who is retiring.

In the current analysis, Republicans will almost certainly flip three Senate seats from Democrat to Republican. These seats are in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. In addition to these three seats, the GOP would need three more seats to win control of the Senate.

There are nine states still rated as tossups. Seven of these states are being defended by the Democrats, while only two are Republican. Currently, Republicans hold narrow leads in five of the Democratic tossups: Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, and North Carolina. It is interesting to note that three of these states, Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina, voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, which may indicate an ideological change since the last Senate elections.

It is also interesting to note that several of the incumbent senators in tossup states were part of the class of 2009 that rode to victory on Barack Obama’s coattails. These senators include Mark Begich (D-Alaska), Mark Udall (D-Col.), and Kay Hagan (D-N.C.). With President Obama often polling with lower approval ratings than Democratic congressmen, he is unlikely to have coattails in 2014.

A final factor to consider is the rule of thumb that any incumbent who polls at less than 50 percent is in serious trouble. History has shown that undecided voters often, but not always, predominantly vote toward for challenger.

On the other side, only two seats are possible pickups for the Democrats. In Georgia, a tough primary season allowed Democrat Michelle Nunn to establish an early lead over the eventual Republican nominee, David Perdue. In Kentucky, a bitter campaign between Tea Party challenger and incumbent and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell left McConnell in a close race for the general election. Both of these races are likely to break for the Republicans.

In the end, whether the Republicans can successfully defend these two seats may well determine control of the Senate. It is a much easier proposition to win three tossup races than five. As Larry Sabato points out, Republicans have not beat more than two Democratic incumbents in any year since 1980. With the three likely pickups in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, the GOP is set to break a 30 year losing streak, but it will take more to win control of the Senate.

Many analysts believe that the GOP will overcome the odds. Sabato himself predicts a GOP pickup of between four and eight seats, which would put the chances of a Senate majority at approximately 50 percent. The comprehensive poll of Senate races by CBS also forecasted a 51-49 majority for the Republicans.

The Washington Post puts the odds even higher, giving the GOP an 82 percent chance of taking control of the Senate. The Post model calls for Republicans to win in Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, a pickup of seven seats. Based on current polling and trends, Examiner agrees with this assessment and would also consider North Carolina a likely Republican pickup for a total gain of eight seats.

 

Read the full article on National Elections Examiner

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