Final Attempt To Delay Wisconsin Primary Falls Flat

Wisconsin’s primary election was canceled for a few hours on Monday, but then it was back on. After working with legislative Republicans for the past week to try to reach an agreement to postpone the election, Gov. Tony Evers (D) issued an Executive Order moving the election to June 9. A few hours later, Wisconsin’s Supreme Court overturned the order and decreed that the election must go on.

Politico reported over the weekend that 10 mayors representing more than a million people had signed a joint letter asking the state government to delay the election. Following the letter, Evers called a special session on Saturday to consider a delay after weeks of party squabbling had failed to produce an agreement.

Evers, who had not called for delaying the election before last Friday, proposed a measure that would allow an all-mail election and extend the deadline for ballots. Republicans did not act on the measure, saying that the move was too late.

Before issuing his Executive Order delaying the election, Evers had tweeted only five days ago, “If I could have changed the election on my own I would have but I can’t without violating state law.” There were no known changes to the Wisconsin constitution or election laws over the past week.

Governor Tony Evers

✔@GovEvers

We have three branches of government to ensure a system of checks and balances, and questions about our elections typically rely on all three playing a role. If I could have changed the election on my own I would have but I can’t without violating state law.

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8:10 PM - Apr 1, 2020

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The order from the state Supreme Court does lay the seeds for more competent handling of future elections. Per the Wisconsin State Journal, the court let stand Gov. Evers’ call for a special session that could set rules for elections in future crises. Republicans are not expected to take action, however.

The back-and-forth over the election has led to an unprecedented level of requests for absentee ballots. The number of requests has led to delays in receiving absentee ballots, which must be postmarked by Election Day per the US Supreme Court.

For those voters choosing to vote in person, there will be problems as well. Shortages of poll workers and concerns about infections mean that there will be far fewer polling places than normal. The city of Milwaukee normally has 180 polling places but this on Tuesday will only have five. Long lines at polling places are expected, which probably represents a nightmare for Drs. Fauci and Birx.

Joe Biden is expected to win the presidential primary handily but turnout will be a wild card. Three polls taken in March showed Biden with a growing lead over Bernie Sanders. The most recent poll, by Marquette University, gave the former vice president a 28-point lead.

With most states delaying elections due to the pandemic, Wisconsin may be the only state to hold an in-person election in April. In terms of epidemiological studies, the sole election in the midst of a pandemic could be a valuable case study on the spread of a communicable disease. However, in terms of governance, it represents a political system that has failed to protect the citizens of the state from an existential threat.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Klobucharge! Is Amy The New Moderate Choice?

The surprises from the New Hampshire primary were not the top two finishers. Everyone knew Bernie Sanders would take the Granite State. The big news above the fold was how poorly Bernie fared relative to his performance in 2016 when he did not face a bevy of challengers. Likewise, Pete Buttigieg’s strong second-place finish was not unexpected after his win in Iowa.

The big news from New Hampshire came from further down the list with Amy Klobuchar’s surprisingly strong showing in third place. Last week, Klobuchar was polling in single-digits and this week her share of the vote pegged at just below 20 percent. What happened in the meantime?

There were two big reasons for the shift in polling. First, there was Klobuchar’s formidable performance in last week’s New Hampshire debate. Second, there was Joe Biden’s underwhelming finish in Iowa and his subsequent self-immolation moment in which he called a voter at a town hall meeting a “lying, dog-faced pony soldier.”

Aside from the question of what a pony soldier is and how it would apply at a town hall meeting, the lesson here is that candidates should probably refrain from insulting voters if they want to win votes. Even if Biden was joking, he has now built a history of attacking town hall attendees after calling an Iowa man “a damn liar” in December.

If we compare the recent polling trends on Real Clear Politics with the actual results, we see that Sanders, Biden, and Warren all underperformed relative to expectations while Buttigieg and Klobuchar did better than expected. I don’t think it is unreasonable to speculate that part of Klobuchar’s surge (dubbed the “Klobucharge” by the FiveThirtyEight podcast) came at the expense of Biden and Warren who both had lackluster performances in the recent debate. With Biden failing and Sanders’ success alarming the party, it is possible that Klobuchar is emerging as the moderate in the race.

When I discuss moderate Democrats, I always get comments that say that no Democrats are moderate so let me stipulate that the term is relative. A Democratic moderate is not the same as a Republican moderate, but there is a range in the Democratic platforms. Biden and Klobuchar are not identical to Bernie and Buttigieg by any stretch of the imagination.

The big question is what comes next. Well, next after Nevada where no one has any real idea of what is going to happen (but where Sanders is under attack by the Culinary union).

What about South Carolina?

Joe Biden has been betting big on South Carolina with its large black population, which has been the base of his support. But now new polling shows that Biden’s support among black voters is falling as blacks turn to… Mike Bloomberg? [Checks notes.] Yes, Mike Bloomberg has cut sharply into Biden’s minority support in a new Quinnipiac poll that shows the mayor at 22 percent in the demographic versus 27 percent for the vice president. If Biden’s support among blacks is slipping then he’s toast.

But will blacks stick with Mayor Mike? Bloomberg is already in hot water as an embarrassing clip has resurfaced in which he blames “male minorities, 16 to 25” for “95 percent of your murders.” The comments relate to the unpopular stop-and-frisk policy of the NYPD in which police were permitted to stop and search minority men.

Black voters represent the kingmaker of the Democratic primary in almost every presidential campaign. The question is who they will coalesce around if they desert Joe Biden. The three remaining likely contenders are all white northerners with little minority support.

Bernie Sanders has not caught the imagination of black voters even in his second campaign. Pete Buttigieg has little traction in states after Iowa and New Hampshire and may be too liberal for black voters. That could conceivably leave Amy Klobuchar as the heir apparent to the moderate lane.

However, it is premature to count Joe Biden out. Despite the media narrative that his campaign is freefall, he is still the frontrunner in national polling, if only just so, and still holds a double-digit lead in South Carolina polling. As I pointed out last week, there is a dearth of polling in most Super Tuesday states so no one is really sure what will happen.

The most recent polling average in South Carolina shows Biden with 31 percent, surprisingly followed by Tom Steyer at 19 and Sanders at 17. Warren, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar are all at less than 10 percent. Mike Bloomberg doesn’t even register.

However, South Carolina is still two weeks away and the field is in a state of upheaval. A poor showing in Nevada could deepen Biden’s descent in the polls and impact his performance in the Palmetto State.

With the situation changing rapidly and little hard data to look at, especially relating to the minority vote, all eyes are on South Carolina and Super Tuesday. This year, the race could be described like Forest Gump’s box of chocolates.

“You never know what you’re gonna get.”

Originally published on The Resurgent

Iowa Caucuses Are Too Close To Call

Okay, political junkies, it’s time. A campaign season that already seems to be endless finally gets its official start today with the Iowa caucuses. As is fitting for a year with so much uncertainty, the Iowa race is too close to call.

If you’ve followed the polling, you know how topsy-turvy the Iowa race has been over the past few months. Elizabeth Warren led throughout the early fall and then Pete Buttigieg surged in November. As the new year dawned, Bernie Sanders was ascendant but then Joe Biden, who seemed to have written off Iowa months ago, was suddenly thrust back to the top of the polls.

The polling situation is made all the more difficult by the absence of the Des Moines Register poll that is normally considered the gold standard in the state. The paper decided not to release the poll results after reports that operators at the call center had adjusted the font size on their list of questions. The change caused Pete Buttigieg to be inadvertently dropped from the list of options and skewed the poll results.

Other recent polling alternated between favoring Biden and Sanders. Currently, the polling averages of both Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight show an edge for Sanders, by four points and one point respectively, but neither average reflects the new CBS poll that was released this morning.

The plot thickens if we throw the CBS poll into the mix because it shows Biden and Sanders tied at 25 percent. The CBS “Battleground Tracker” is actually more than a poll. It’s a model that blends multiple polls and considers the stated intentions of more than 35,000 likely voters.

Beyond the top two candidates, CBS found Pete Buttigieg in a close third at 23 percent and Elizabeth Warren at 16 percent. Amy Klobuchar, who you may remember was near the 15-percent threshold for earning delegates in a recent Emerson survey, is now polling at five percent. All other candidates were below five percent.

Under the current polling, Biden and Sanders can be expected to win an almost even number of delegates, regardless of who the top finisher is. Buttigieg and Warren are also likely to earn Iowa delegates.

The nature of caucuses, which require much more effort than simply casting a ballot in a primary, would normally favor Sanders since the Vermont senator inspires a zealous following among his Bernie Bro backers. However, the current state of alarm in the Democratic Party over a possible Sanders candidacy may mobilize establishment Democrats to spend the time to caucus for Joe Biden.

As I’ve said before, Sanders may well win Iowa and will almost certainly win New Hampshire, but the long term race still seems to favor Biden. Nevertheless, Bernie is peaking at the right time to give the former vice president a run for his money.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Have Democrats Learned That Voters Want A Moderate?

More than six months after what many pundits predicted would be a flash in the pan, Joe Biden still sits atop Democratic primary polls. The reason for Biden’s preeminence is simple: He is the dominant moderate in a race filled with progressives. Even though moderates do not represent a majority of Democratic primary voters, the moderate niche is large enough to allow Biden to sit atop the cluster of progressives competing for votes among a divided group of leftists. The situation is very similar to how Donald Trump’s plurality allowed him to win the Republican nomination in 2016 amid thanks to Republican primary voters divided between Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich.

Now, after months of watching Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders vie for second place, another Democrat is contesting Biden for the moderate lane. Pete Buttigieg has exhibited a rise in the polls, doubling his share of voters since the beginning of October, per the Real Clear Politics average. Buttigieg now stands at 11 percent, which earns him an increasingly close fourth place. Aside from the Big Three, Mayor Pete is the only candidate to poll at more than 10 percent.

Whether Buttigieg is a moderate depends on how you define “moderate.” Jill Lawrence noted in USA Today that “his résumé includes service as a Navy intelligence officer in Afghanistan and three years at the management consulting firm McKinsey & Co.” and adds, “He’s religious and married (and also, by the way, gay).” Lawrence also notes that his public option health plan “for all who want it” is less radical than the Medicare-for-all plans of many of his opponents.

On the subject of health, it is also relevant to note that Elizabeth Warren’s Icarus-like journey to tie Joe Biden at the top of the polls only to fall apart and begin a long, slow crash back to ignominy can be traced to her radical health care reform plan. When Warren released her much-vaunted Medicare-for-all plan, even Democrats blanched at her sweeping plan to remake America’s health care system as well as its associated price tag.

Elizabeth Warren wasn’t the only candidate whose campaign flamed out over an overly radical platform. Beto O’Rourke, who got off to a quick start by raising more than six million dollars (enough to build a bionic man in 1973), failed to energize his flagging campaign by promising to confiscate assault rifles and tax churches. Progressives failed to rally to Beto’s liberal Christmas list, perhaps recognizing that these positions were too far out of the mainstream to be accepted by a majority of voters.

A third Democrat who succumbed to progressive preferences was Kamala Harris. There is more than one reason for Harris’ failure to launch, but one factor was that she catered her campaign to “woke” Twitter. In so doing, she failed to attract enough mainstream Democrats to keep her campaign going.  

But the fact that Buttigieg is appealing to moderate Democrats doesn’t mean that he is a moderate, especially in Republican terms. “Moderate” to Democrats means something different than it does to Republicans. Even a moderate Democrat is going to hold positions that most conservatives would consider to be deal-breakers. For conservatives, a voluntary public option is scarcely better than Medicaid-for-all and even though Buttigieg is a Christian, his religious views are far from harmonized with conservative evangelicals, especially when it comes to abortion. Mayor Pete may not be a true moderate but he does seem to appeal to moderate Democrats who aren’t sold on Joe Biden.

In fact, it’s difficult to say exactly what Buttigieg really is. As a city mayor, he doesn’t have much of a track record on national issues. As with other recent candidates such as Barack Obama and Donald Trump, his scant history makes Buttigieg a blank slate onto which supporters and opponents can project what they want to see.

Whether Buttigieg continues to surge or becomes another also-ran, it seems that Democratic voters are increasingly looking towards the moderates for their candidate. If Buttigieg falters, Andrew Yang and Amy Klobuchar seem likely to inherit the moderate-but-not-Biden niche.

However, in the end, Joe Biden is the heavy favorite to win the Democratic nomination. His victory will be in no small part due to the support of the largest moderate segment of the Democratic coalition, a demographic that is both staunchly Democrat and heavily Christian. It is a core group with which other Democrats, such as Buttigieg, have been able to make little headway against Biden.

Black voters will be the moderate kingmakers who propel Biden to the nomination.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Black Voters Not Sold On Biden

So far, Joe Biden holds the lead among black Democratic voters, but there are signs that members of the demographic, which makes up a large share of Democratic primary voters, are not thrilled with the candidacy of Barack Obama’s vice president. However, the several minority candidates in the Democratic field have nonetheless failed to catch fire with voters.

In a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, 39 percent of black Democrats favored Biden. Elizabeth Warren, another white candidate, ran a distant second in the poll at 22 percent. The other candidates, including Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg as well as the minority candidates, all polled at less than 10 percent.

Still, there are concerns about Biden, especially regarding his propensity for gaffes. For example, in last week’s debate, Biden claimed, “I come out of the black community in terms of my support” and said that he had the support of “the only black African American woman who had ever been elected to the United States Senate,” referring to Carol Mosely Braun.

That was news to Kamala Harris, who laughed back, “Nope. That's not true. The other one is here.”

Biden quickly corrected himself, saying, “I said the first.”

Another source of uncertainty surrounding Biden is his age. The 76-year-old candidate is viewed as healthy by almost as many voters (74 percent) as the 70-year-old Warren (80 percent) and more than Bernie Sanders (48 percent), age 78 and the victim of a recent heart attack. That doesn’t mean that voters are not concerned, however.

"Well, I was sort of leaning toward Joe Biden," said Elsie Just-Buddy, member of the Ebenezer Baptist Church in downtown Atlanta when asked by ABC News about her candidate preference. When asked about her hesitation, the member of the church once pastored by Martin Luther King, Jr. cited Biden’s age.

ABC reported that, after interviewing dozens of congregants at Ebenezer, black voters trusted and liked Biden due to familiarity with him from his years in the Obama Administration but weren’t very excited about his candidacy. They were open to a more exciting candidate, but, so far, that candidate has not emerged.

Another member of Ebenezer, Ernest Fry, said, “I think that he’d be a good candidate as well as the rest of them. But, you know, I don’t think anyone got it locked unless you got a good program for the people.”

Nevertheless, Elizabeth Warren, once renowned for her plans and currently smarting from a health plan so unrealistic that it was even mocked by Democrats, fares much worse than Biden. The very white woman from Massachusetts pleaded her case to minority voters in the Atlanta debate, saying, “As a white woman, I will never fully understand the discrimination, pain, and harm that black Americans have experienced just because of the color of their skin. When I am president of the United States, the lessons of black history will not be lost.”

Black Democratic candidates Corey Booker and Kamala Harris were critical of the fact that white Democrats top the polls. Both glossed over their own dearth of support from black voters when they made their complaints, however.  

Booker warned that black voters are “p-ss-d off because the only time our issues seem to be really paid attention to by politicians is when people are looking for their vote. And they're worried because, in the Democratic Party, we don't want to see people miss this opportunity and lose because we are nominating someone that … isn't trusted, doesn't have authentic connection.”

In a speech to the NAACP in Detroit last May, Harris complained that the notion of electability to Midwest voters led to prejudice against minority candidates, saying, “Too often, the definition of the Midwest leaves people out.” However, during Harris’ brief flirtation with frontrunner status, it was white voters and not blacks who rallied behind her.

Black support for Biden also comes as a surprise to many on the right who predicted that the Democratic Party would rally behind an intersectional candidate rather than another old white man. The fact that the top two choices of black voters are a white man and a white woman, even though there are prominent black candidates in the running, has exploded stereotypes on both sides.

For all the uneasiness and lack of excitement surrounding his campaign, Steady Joe Biden remains the candidate to beat. While others, including Kamala Harris, have flashed in the pan and quickly burned out, Biden’s position atop the polls with the support of a quarter to a third of Democratic voters has been very consistent since he entered the race.

Elizabeth Warren, who is currently plummeting in the polls, is the only other candidate with any significant support in the black community, and other potential frontrunners such as Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg have shown almost no minority appeal. Due to the lack of exciting alternatives, it seems almost certain that, barring a major gaffe or health problem, Joe Biden will emerge as the Democratic candidate at the end of the day. If so, he will have black voters to thank.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Satire: Democrats Propose Redistributing Joe Biden’s Poll Numbers

As Democrats approach their second primary debate, there is angst among the 2,352 presidential candidates over Joe Biden’s persistent polling lead. The other candidates and their supporters are reportedly bristling at the fact that Biden, an old, white man, maintains a comfortable polling lead over a diverse selection of candidates that includes women, African Americans, an Asian, a gay man, an aging hippie, and a matched set of white billionaires.

 “He didn’t build that,” Elizabeth Warren said of Biden’s widespread polling support at a recent secret meeting of the Democratic hopefuls. “He inherited most of those voters from Barack Obama since they remember him as Obama’s running mate.”

“That’s called ‘white privilege,’” Kamala Harris added. “He’s taking votes from a black man when there are other black candidates in the race who should be getting those votes.”

Bernie Sanders, who has consistently run a distant second to Biden, argued that taking support from the frontrunner and distributing it to other candidates was the most progressive thing that the Democratic Party could do.

“From each according to his polling numbers to each according to his need,” Sanders quipped, “and I really need another 10 to 15 percent in the polls. Redistributing some of the Joe’s polling numbers is only fair since he has plenty of them and so many of us don’t. We need to share the wealth.”

“That’s right,” said Kirsten Gillibrand.

“I don’t get it,” Sanders continued, “I was a rock star in 2016 and now no one pays attention to me. Isn’t this old Jewish socialist radical enough anymore? I’m still hip.”

“You think you’ve got it bad,” Beto O’Rourke chimed in, “What about me? I almost beat Ted Cruz in Texas just last year and now I can’t get arrested again.”

“I mean seriously, bro,” he continued, “I’m standing up on tables everywhere and generally raising a ruckus, but it’s like no one knows I’m alive. I think I’m having an existential crisis. Maybe if I shot someone on Fifth Avenue.”

“I'd like to buy the world a home and furnish it with love,” spoke up Marianne Williamson, “Grow apple trees and honey bees and snow-white turtle doves… but not just white turtle doves. As I told the prime minister of New Zealand, in my vision of America, turtle doves of all races, creeds, colors and sexual orientations are loved and welcome.”

“Um, yeah,” replied Amy Klobuchar. “That Joe Biden makes me so mad that I could stab him with my salad fork. I was the first moderate in this race and I’m a woman on top of that, don’t you know! If it wasn’t for Joe Biden, I’d be getting those moderate votes.”

“That’s right,” said Kirsten Gillibrand.

“I deserve those poll numbers more than anyone,” exclaimed Andrew Yang. “They talk about Elizabeth Warren’s plans, but I’ve got a plan for everything and my plans are more realistic than hers. Well, except for the universal basic income. I put that in there as a joke. But seriously, if space aliens abduct America’s honeybees, I have a plan for it. It’s on my Yang Gang website.”

“I can pay for those voters,” burst Pete Buttigieg. “Since the first debate, I’ve raked in the donations but only about a dozen voters will admit to supporting me. What sense does that make?”

“That’s because you’re gay,” answered Tulsi Gabbard. “Homosexual men across the country are supporting you and everybody knows that they have lots of money from their careers and since they don’t have kids, they get to keep it. Unlike the cis gender voters with kids whose money goes out as soon as it comes in, your voters have disposable income left over to send to you.”

“That sounds a bit homophobic,” John Hickenlooper jumped in.

“Sorry,” Gabbard replied. “Force of habit. Who are you anyway?”

“I'd like to each the world to sing in perfect harmony,” Williamson broke in. “I'd like to buy the world a coke and keep it company.”

“Yes,” nodded Kirsten Gillibrand gravely.

The door flew open and Joe Biden burst into the room.

“Hey old buddies, what is everybody doing here? I hope you’re not planning to stab Old Joe in the back. Et tu, Kamala?” Biden asked with a raised eyebrow.

“We want your polling numbers, Joe,” Harris replied. “It’s time for some affirmative action so bus your numbers on over to Kamala.”

“It’s for the greater good, Joe,” Elizabeth Warren said. “Modern Democrats are too woke to get behind a white, cis male like you.”

At that point, Biden calmly donned his aviator sunglasses and reached for a double-barrel shotgun that he had concealed just outside the door. Biden fired a blast into the air. Pieces of ceiling tile and shattered glass rained down as the candidates scattered and ran for the exits.

“That always works,” Biden cackled.

The meeting was adjourned.

Originally published on The Resurgent as satire.

Joe Biden Surges Back To Massive Lead

Joe Biden is defying the naysayers and regaining lost ground in Democratic primary polling. A new Fox News poll shows the former vice president with a commanding lead over his rivals in the form of the support of 33 percent of Democratic voters. His nearest opponent, Bernie Sanders, was a distant second at 15 percent.

The new poll is not an outlier. Other recent polls have also shown Biden with support in the upper 20s to low 30s. Another new poll by Economist/YouGov showed Biden at 25 percent, Politico/Morning Consult found him at 33 percent, and a Hill/HarrisX poll from last week gave him 29 percent. The Real Clear Politics average shows Biden trending upward from a low of 26 percent to his current average of 29 percent. While Biden’s standing is still below his average from before the first Democratic debate in June, he has unquestionably reversed his slide in the polls.

The news is not so good for Kamala Harris. The California senator saw a surge after the June debate and has since dropped off. Harris rose as high as 14 percent in the polling average before declining to her current standing at 11 percent.

The news also is not good for Bernie Sanders. The Vermont senator’s popularity ebbed after Biden entered the race and has since stagnated at an average of about 15 percent.

In addition to Biden’s resurgence, Elizabeth Warren has been the other beneficiary of Sanders’ and Harris’ misfortune. In June, the alleged Native American candidate almost doubled her single-digit share of average polling support, climbing from a low of seven percent at the beginning to 14 percent. She and Sanders are currently in a statistical tie for second place, but both are far behind Joe Biden. No other candidate aside from the top four has more than five percent support.

Part of Biden’s appeal is likely that he is seen as more moderate and electable than the other Democrats. Both Fox News and the Economist reported that, by about a two-to-one margin, Democrats preferred a candidate who was more like to beat Trump than one who reflected their policy preferences. In head-to-head polling matchups, Biden averages an eight-point lead over Trump, which would almost certainly be a large enough win to overcome any Electoral College edge that Trump might have. Bernie Sanders is favored over Trump by about four points, which could lead to an Electoral College tossup, while Harris and Warren have only a two-point edge.

Biden, who was born in Pennsylvania and later became a senator from Delaware, which is part of the greater Philadelphia media market, would also have an important advantage in a state that Trump won in 2016 and hopes to carry again. The blue-collar Trump voters of Pennsylvania would be more likely to rally around “Blue Collar Joe” than the other Democratic hopefuls. That is evident from state polling in which Biden leads his nearest contender by more than two-to-one.

Under the new rules for the Democratic primary, superdelegates will not be allowed to vote on the first ballot and state delegates are awarded to candidates based on their proportion of votes in the state primary. There are no winner-take-all states as in the Republican primary. This means that if Biden can maintain support from a quarter to a third of Democratic voters, he will almost certainly win the nomination. There are a couple of scenarios that could change that, however.

All eyes will be on Biden next week as Democrats take to the debate stage in Detroit for their second primary debate, another two-night affair to be held Tuesday and Wednesday. After his lackluster performance in June and his subsequent drop in the polls, Biden will be under intense pressure and scrutiny as Democratic voters decide whether he would be able to stand up to Donald Trump in a general election fight. Another disappointing performance could send Biden supporters to their second choice candidate.

Another possibility is that the numbers could change as candidates drop out. The recent Morning Consult poll also asked about second choices. At 30 percent, Biden was the top second choice of Sanders supporters but he fared worse with Warren and Harris supporters at 17 percent and 26 percent respectively. If two of his three top-tier opponents dropped out, Biden could face a strong challenger in a two-way race. (If that happens and Bernie Sanders ends up being elected president, just remember that I predicted the possibility way back in August 2018.)

The Democratic primary campaign is barely underway but, for now at least, it seems as though Democratic voters are sticking with Joe Biden. In an election year in which the primary goal is to oust a very unpopular opponent who won largely because his previous opponent failed to inspire the blue-collar core of the Democratic Party, Biden appears to be a safe choice.  

Originally published on The Resurgent

Can Trump get to 1,237?

(Michael Vadon/Wikimedia)

After Donald Trump’s sweep of the Northeast last night, there is a feeling of inevitability in many quarters. Trump won Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, all with more than 50 percent of the vote. The big question now is: Can Donald Trump get to 1,237 delegates? And a second question is, with Trump winning big victories and racking up delegates, why does he continue to call the system rigged?

After the April 26 primaries, the most recent tallies show Trump with 950 delegates. At this point, Ted Cruz and John Kasich are mathematically eliminated from winning the 1,237 delegates needed to be nominated on the first ballot and can only hope to deny Trump a victory.

There are 13 primaries and 622 delegates remaining. At first glance, it seems that Trump’s road to the nomination is easy one. He only needs to win 46 percent of remaining delegates. In reality, due to the structure of the Republican primary, it might be more difficult that it seems. Several of the primaries are winner-take-all and Trump will not win all of these.

To analyze Trump’s chances, we’ll assume that he takes an average of 45 percent of proportional delegates and examine the probable outcomes of winner-take-all states. Forty-five percent is not an unreasonable number in light of Trump’s past performance and the fact that the race is down to only three candidates. It is also in line with current national polls.

The next prize is Indiana on May 3. Indiana is a winner-take-all state with 57 delegates, approximately 20 percent of what Trump needs. Polling shows that the race in Indiana is close. Trump leads by single digits and the deal between Cruz and Kasich may keep Trump from winning. Trump currently needs 287 delegates to clinch the nomination. If Trump wins Indiana, the number will reduced to 230.

On May 10, Nebraska and West Virginia hold primaries. Nebraska is winner-take-all with 36 delegates and West Virginia is proportional with 34 delegates. There is no recent polling in either state, but Nebraska would probably lean toward Cruz and West Virginia toward Trump. Assuming 15 delegates for Trump from West Virginia, he would need 215 more.

On Tuesday, May 17, Oregon holds its primary. The only poll available is a year old and does not show Trump in the race. Cruz, however, has performed well in other western states. The state’s 28 delegates will be award proportionally. If Trump keeps his ratio of 45 percent, he would win about 13 delegates and need 202 more.

Washington’s primary is on May 24. The state’s 44 delegates will be awarded proportionally. There is no polling available in Washington. Forty-five percent of the delegates would net Trump about 20 and leave him needing an additional 182.

June 7 is the last multistate primary day. The biggest prize is California with 172 delegates to be awarded proportionally. Current polling shows Trump at about 45 percent in California. He should win about 78 delegates and leave the state needing 104 more.

On the same day, Montana, New Jersey and South Dakota hold winner-take-all primaries. Trump would probably take New Jersey’s 51 delegates, but lose in Montana and South Dakota. New Mexico also holds a proportional primary on June 7. Cruz led by one point in New Mexico in a February poll, but ceded the state to Kasich in the deal between the two candidates. After winning New Jersey, Trump will only need 53 delegates. Even if he wins all of New Mexico’s 24 delegates, an impossibility, he will fall just short of the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the Republican nomination.

This explains why Trump calls the system rigged. He knows that even with his commanding lead in delegates and all the other candidates mathematically eliminated, the odds are against him amassing enough delegates to win the nomination on an uncontested first ballot.

Conventional wisdom holds that, as delegates begin to be unbound after first ballot, Trump’s chances of winning the nomination will diminish. Some delegates may initially be bound to vote for Trump, but actually support other candidates. After the first ballot, Trump’s much-touted negotiating skills will be required to convince his delegates not to flip to another candidate and to win other delegates to put him over the top. Considering Trump’s unpopularity with most of the party, this is unlikely.

Can Trump get to 1,237? It is possible, but not likely. He would need to maintain and even build on his momentum. Trump needs to win the winner-take-all states of Indiana and New Jersey as well as take about 55 percent of the remaining proportional delegates. This would mean doing much better in western states than he has done previously. Because Trump can see that it is unlikely that he will be the nominee, even though he will enter the convention with the most delegates, he charges that the system is rigged.

Read it on Conservative Firing Line or Freedom Daily

Bernie Sanders' path to the White House

(Michael Vadon/Wikimedia)

“If Bernie Sanders wins the White House,” goes a popular meme, “it will be the first time a socialist has been elected president since 2008.” While Barack Obama is not an avowed socialist, the meme underscores the fact that socialistic ideas are not the anathema that they once were. Bernie Sanders could win.

Unlike Barack Obama, Bernie Sanders has been open about being a socialist, even if he doesn’t like the term. He has cited American Socialist Eugene V. Debs as his hero. Until he decided to run for the Democratic nomination last year, he served Vermont in Congress as an independent, not a Democrat.

Bernie’s success has surprised many political observers as well as the Clinton campaign. Over the past few months the Sanders campaign has morphed from a quixotic campaign that seemed to exist only to make a statement to a burgeoning political movement that is increasingly playing to win. Still, in spite of his victories, Sanders trails Clinton in the delegate count, thanks in large part to the Democratic system of unbound superdelegates.

At this point in the primary, it appears unlikely that Sanders can beat Hillary for the nomination in a straight fight. With 1,941 delegates still available, Sanders trails Hillary by 688. The proportional distribution of delegates in Democratic primaries makes it difficult for Sanders to win enough bound delegates to dethrone Hillary.

In addition to a Sanders surge, a Hillary implosion will probably be required for a Sanders win. A major gaffe by Mrs. Clinton or, perhaps more likely, an indictment, might swing enough Clinton backers and superdelegates toward Sanders to allow him to secure the nomination. The situation is somewhat similar to 2008 although Obama had a slight lead in pledged delegates in April of that year. In contrast, Sanders trails in a close race.

Winning the Democratic nomination might actually be the hardest part of Bernie’s path to the White House. While most on the right view the word “socialist” as very negative, polling shows that many young voters are more open to voting for socialists. The term is not the political kiss of death that it would have been 20 years ago.

Second, Bernie is not viewed nearly as negatively as Republican frontrunners Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Trump has the highest negative rating of any presumed nominee in history. Cruz fares better, but is still less popular than Sanders. Neither Republican is widely viewed as honest or trustworthy. With Cruz and Trump calling each other liars, competing to see who can be more harsh on immigration and even insulting each other’s wives, it is unlikely that either will seem much more likeable before the convention.

Current head-to-head polling shows that Bernie fares better against both Republicans than Mrs. Clinton. The Real Clear Politics average shows that Sanders leads Ted Cruz by 10 points while Clinton only leads the Texas senator by 2.5 points, well within the margin of error of most polls. Hillary leads Donald Trump by more than 10 points, but The Donald trails Bernie by a staggering 16 points. With several months yet to go in the bruising Republican primary, it is likely that the eventual Republican nominee will emerge even more damaged and with higher negatives, making it even harder to turn the national tide.

Sanders, on the other hand, is a likeable candidate. Even though most voters probably disagree with his policy prescriptions, he comes across as more honest and charismatic than either Hillary Clinton or the Republican frontrunners. His campaign has a positive energy that is lacking from the stolid plodding of the Clinton campaign, the televangelist feel of the Cruz campaign or the combativeness and anger of Trump. The Democratic primary has not been as dirty and damaging to its candidates as the Republican primary.

In short, it’s likely that Sanders could beat either Trump or Cruz in a head-to-head race if he can put away Hillary Clinton first. The odds are stacked against the Republican duo by their harsh appeals to the conservative base on immigration. The swing states where the presidential race will be decided are filled with moderates and minority voters who are much less enamored with the idea of deporting illegal aliens than are Republican primary voters.

The final nail in the Republican coffin would be the party division that will result from the convention fight that is almost certain to occur. If Trump goes into the convention with a delegate lead that is short of the required majority and does not emerge as the nominee, a large number of his supporters will desert the GOP and either not vote or vote for an independent Trump or another third party.

On the other hand, a Trump nomination would be equally destructive to the GOP. As many as 30-40 percent of Republican voters could desert the party if Trump is its nominee. Trump opponents are also considering third party options. Regardless of the outcome of the primaries and convention, the Republican Party seems destined for a crackup.

Barring a third party run from the left by someone such as Michael Bloomberg, who says he has changed his mind about mounting an independent campaign, a divided Republican Party would almost assure a Democrat victory, whether the candidate is Sanders or Clinton. The biggest obstacle to the White House for Bernie Sanders is disposing of Hillary Clinton and her superdelegate lead. 

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Trump and Cruz approval hits record low; both may be unelectable

As the two leading contenders for the Republican nomination continue to hammer each other in round after round of primaries, it seems likely that neither will achieve a knockout or win enough delegates to win a decision at the convention. At this point, the main accomplishment of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz seems to have been to bruise and bloody each other enough so that neither is likely to be able to beat the presumed Democrat champion, Hillary Clinton.

A recent Gallup poll comparing approval ratings for the remaining candidates found that the historically poor view of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz held by Americans reached a new low amid their insults and squabbling over everything from wives to who would deport more illegal immigrants. Trump and Cruz approval ratings are the lowest of all remaining candidates.

Donald Trump, the perennially unpopular candidate who has been continually reviled since his campaign’s inception last summer, continues to hold the most negative rating with a net approval rating of -35. For those of you in Rio Lindo, this means that people who disapprove of Trump outnumber those who approve of him by 35 points. According to Washington Post research, Trump has the most negative rating of any serious presidential candidate ever. The only candidate who has ever rated worse than Mr. Trump is David Duke, a former Ku Klux Klan leader who ran for the Republican nomination in 1992.

Ted Cruz fares better in Gallup’s findings, but not by much. Cruz, who held a positive approval rating as recently as December has seen his rating plummet to near-Trumpian levels. Cruz’s -16 rating is actually one point higher than Donald Trump’s all-time high. Like Marco Rubio, whose campaign imploded when he adopted Trump’s tactics, Cruz is being tarnished by his tit for tat with The Donald.

Ironically, the third place finisher who is the odds on favorite to become the next president, Hillary Clinton, also has a negative rating. Nevertheless, the only candidate under investigation by the FBI (that we know of) and the only candidate who is likely to be indicted during the campaign, is still more popular than Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Her -11 rating is not her lowest and actually seems to be an improvement. Hillary’s approval rating has been remarkably consistent, even if slightly underwater, for the entire campaign.

The negative ratings of the two most likely Republican contenders may explain the increase in party identification among Democrats over the past few months. In the latest Gallup poll of party affiliation, Democrats led Republicans by six points. When leaners were taken into account, Democrats held an 8 point advantage. This margin is practically identical to the Democratic lead over Republicans as the 2012 elections approached.

Who fares best in the current public opinion? Ironically, it is John Kasich with a net favorable rating of 19 points who looks best to American voters. In a somewhat close second, Bernie Sanders finishes with a net positive rating of 10 percent.

Why are the also-rans finishing so much better than the frontrunners? In the case of Trump and Cruz, it might be that their attacks on each other have left the public with a sour taste its mouth. The anti-establishment and hardline immigration rhetoric of the pair might also simply not resonate with voters outside the Republican Party’s base.

Bernie Sanders’ popularity may be a rejection of Hillary Clinton among the Democratic Party base. Hillary is not generally well liked or trusted even among Democrats. Her FBI investigation and looming possible indictment have not gone unnoticed. Neither have the fundraising practices of the Clinton Foundation or Clinton connections to Wall Street. Sanders’ combination of democratic socialism and folksy populism is appealing for a party whose base has drifted farther and farther left during the eight years of the Obama Administration.

The widespread dissatisfaction with the leading candidates spells trouble for both parties. Ironically, for all their division Republicans may have an advantage here. If no Republican can win a majority and clinch the nomination, an open convention may present the party with a rare chance for a do-over. Scott Walker, the Republican governor of Wisconsin recently told The Cap Times, “I think if it’s an open convention, it’s very likely it would be someone who’s not currently running. I mean, who knows?”

Due to the nature of the Democratic race, Democrats will have no such opportunity for a split decision. With only two candidates running for the Democratic nomination, there will be only one winner and one loser. For better or for worse, Democrats will be stuck with the choice of their primary voters and superdelegates.

For Republicans who support none of the above remaining candidates, there is hope that the convention delegates will find a better candidate. The job of a political party is to nominate a candidate who can win. That job may well end up in the hands of convention delegates.

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