Swing State Voters Favor Biden On Crime And Coronavirus

 Fox News polling in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin found that President Trump trails Democratic challenger Joe Biden in all three of these states, which were won by Trump in 2016. A surprising finding of the report was that many voters prefer Biden over Trump when it comes to handling both crime and the Coronavirus pandemic.

In a head-to-head matchup, likely voters in all three states picked Biden over Trump:

Arizona: Biden-49 Trump-40

North Carolina: Biden-50 Trump-46

Wisconsin: Biden-50 Trump-42

The poll also asked about four issues facing the country: the economy, the pandemic, policing and criminal justice, and dealing with China. Here is who voters trusted “to do a better job” in the three states polled:

Arizona:
Economy: Biden-44 Trump-45
Coronavirus: Biden-53 Trump-36
Policing and Criminal Justice: Biden-47 Trump-42
China: Biden-44 Trump-43

 

North Carolina:
Economy: Biden-43 Trump-51
Coronavirus: Biden-50 Trump-41
Policing and Criminal Justice: Biden-46 Trump-47
China: Biden-43 Trump-48

Wisconsin:
Economy: Biden-45 Trump-45
Coronavirus: Biden-52 Trump-35
Policing and Criminal Justice: Biden-47 Trump-42
China: Biden-44 Trump-45

The polling showed lopsided support for Joe Biden on the pandemic, but also indicated a surprising weakness for the president on his signature issues. Across the three states, the best Trump could manage was a statistical tie on criminal justice. Joe Biden trailed the president on the economy and China in North Carolina but ranked statistically even with the president in Arizona and Wisconsin on those issues.

It is especially striking that Wisconsin voters preferred Joe Biden to handle policing and criminal justice since Kenosha has been the scene of violent protests and riots since Jacob Blake was shot by police on August 23. The subsequent unrest led to two killings by Kyle Rittenhouse, who is being charged with murder.

The polling also covered senatorial races in Arizona and North Carolina. In Arizona, Republican incumbent Martha McSally is trailing Democrat Mark Kelly by an astonishing 17 points (56-39 percent) in a race that is trending towards a landslide. In North Carolina, Thom Tillis, another Republican incumbent is doing a bit better but still trailing Democrat Cal Cunningham 48-42 percent.

These two races may provide Democrats with two of the three seats that they need to win control of the Senate. A probable loss by Alabama’s Doug Jones would require an additional two Democratic pickups.

The Fox polling only covered three swing states while several others are in play. If only these three states flipped from the 2016 results, Trump would still win the Electoral College by 270-268. Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania provide additional opportunities to put Biden over the top. As I discussed earlier this week, Biden leads in those states as well.

Polling data shows that Trump’s approaches to the plethora of crises facing voters are falling flat with voters. Today marks 60 days until Election Day. If Donald Trump intends to pivot to a more unifying (and competent) strategy that would better appeal to undecided and moderate voters, he is running out of time to do so.

Originally published on The Resurgent

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How Martha McSally Could Still End Up In The Senate

Martha McSally lost this year’s Senate race in Arizona, but she could soon be a US Senator anyway. In a bit of irony following the hard-fought race for the seat of the retiring Jeff Flake, both McSally and Democrat Kirsten Sinema, the winner in last week’s election, could soon be office neighbors across the country in Washington, D.C.

The secret to McSally’s possible success lies in the fact that former Senator Jon Kyl was appointed to fill John McCain’s seat after his death last summer. Kyl, who is 76, agreed to fill McCain’s seat through the end of this year. If Kyl retires before the end of McCain’s elected term in 2022, then Arizona’s Republican governor will appoint another successor to fill the seat. If Gov. Doug Ducey needs a Republican to fill a Senate seat, what better person would there be than a popular conservative congresswoman who just received more than a million votes in a very close Senate campaign?

McSally, a 52-year-old former Air Force fighter pilot, would have to defend her seat in 2022. Given her close race against Sinema in a heavily Democratic year, the advantage of incumbency in an electoral landscape that is possibly post-Trump would make it very likely that McSally would successfully defend her seat.

Laurie Roberts at the Arizona Republic wrote Monday that Gov. Ducey should appoint McSally in an effort to “salve… the open, gaping wound that is post-election Arizona.” Roberts said that McSally has traditionally been a “more moderate voice than the one portrayed during this campaign -- the one that allowed her to represent the state's most competitive district.”

Roberts also noted that McSally has a history of being “willing to work across the political aisle.” That is a quality that is currently in short supply and is very much needed.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Green Candidate Wilts In Arizona, Throws Support To Dems

The topsy-turvy Arizona Senate race just got upended once again. Kirsten Sinema, the Democrat candidate campaigning to replace retiring Republican Jeff Flake just got a boost as a third-party candidate in the race dropped out and endorsed her candidacy.

Angela Green, the appropriately named nominee of the Green Party, announced her departure from the race yesterday afternoon and endorsed Sinema in a video clip posted on YouTube by Arizona’s 12 News.

“I want them [my supporters] to vote for a better Arizona and that would be Kyrsten Sinema, the Democratic Party,” Green said.

Polling in the race has been inconsistent with Republican Martha McSally leading in early October. Sinema then led in a spate of polls in the middle and end of the month. The two most recent polls show different results with ABC 15 showing a 7-point advantage for McSally and CNN showing Sinema ahead by four points.

The impact of Green’s endorsement on the race is uncertain. The ABC 15 poll pegged her support at one percent. Another two percent of voters were undecided. With the news of Green’s withdrawal coming less than a week prior to Election Day, many of her supporters may have already cast absentee ballots or voted early.

In an encouraging sign for Republicans, AZ Central reported last week that returned ballots from Republican voters had outpaced those from Democrats by 11 percentage points. Approximately 75 percent of Arizona voters are expected to vote early.

The race has been very fluid with some independent voters apparently changing their minds. Pollster Mike Noble told ABC 15 that McSally had benefited from the Kavanaugh hearings. On the other hand, McSally recently told Sean Hannity that her votes for Obamacare repeal were causing her to get her “ass kicked” over coverage of pre-existing conditions.

Any supporters of the Green Party candidate would almost certainly rally behind Sinema if they support either candidate. In a letter on her website that decries Democrat “bullying” of her campaign, Green wrote, “ Although Sinema is a Democrat, and if you do not know, I was a registered Democrat for many years prior to this election, who is supposed to be more of a progressive, her voting record shows she has voted over 62% with the Trump agenda.  Although that is better than the 97% voting record of McSally, I still believe Arizonan’s [sic] deserve better.” 

With the rapidly changing dynamics in Arizona, the race is an almost literal coin toss. The election could easily go either way. In such a close election, even a fraction of the one percent of voters who backed Green could prove decisive.

Originally published on The Resurgent

McSally "Getting Ass Kicked' In Arizona

Once thought to be a favorite, Republican Martha McSally is slipping in the polls in Arizona. The conservative vying for Jeff Flake’s Senate seat blames her decline on her 2017 vote to repeal Obamacare.

In an interview on Sean Hannity’s radio show quoted by Raw Story, McSally said, “Well, Sean, I did vote to repeal and replace Obamacare on that House bill — I’m getting my ass kicked for it right now because it’s being misconstrued by the Democrats. They’re trying to, you know, invoke fear in people who have family members or loved ones with pre-existing conditions.”

McSally told the Arizona Republic that Democrats were assassinating her character because of her vote even though many people with pre-existing conditions are not covered by Obamacare plans due to their cost.

“Now what we have is people right now, under Obamacare, with pre-existing conditions who have no health insurance,” she said, adding that people didn’t want the “crappy insurance” created by the Affordable Care Act.

Since the Affordable Care Act was passed in 2010, Republicans have made repealing the health insurance law a priority. Public opinion was against the law for years but shifted when Republicans launched several abortive attempts to repeal and replace it last year. Current polling shows that Americans now approve of the law by an average of nine points. Democrat claims that Republicans would eliminate coverage for pre-existing conditions was a major reason for the shift.

While polling remains close in the race, momentum seems to have moved towards Democrat Kirsten Sinema in recent weeks even though Arizona typically trends Republican. Sinema was also faced with an embarrassing video a few weeks ago in which she ridiculed Arizona voters.

The Real Clear Politics average gives Sinema a lead of less than one point, but recent polls favor the Democrat by larger margins. The last poll, released yesterday, showed Sinema with a six-point lead that is outside the margin of error. The Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato still rate the race as a tossup, but FiveThirtyEight has moved the Arizona to the “lean Democrat” category, pegging McSally’s chances of winning at 38 percent.

McSally, a former Air Force fighter pilot who flew the A-10 Thunderbolt in combat in Afghanistan, has served as a Republican congressman from Arizona since 2015. She has been a strong ally of Donald Trump, voting with the president more than 97 percent of the time.

Arizona seems to be the best chance for Democrats to pick up Republican Senate seat, but, if Sinema pulls off the win, it may only be to preserve the current balance of power in the Senate. Flipping Flake’s seat would only offset the projected Republican victory over Democratic incumbent Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota. With Democrats on the defense in most other close Senate races, it seems increasingly likely that the blue wave won’t reach the Senate, even if Arizona goes blue. 

Originally published on The Resurgent