Iran Just Knocked Out Half Of Saudi Arabia’s Oil Production

Drone attacks have temporarily destroyed half of Saudi Arabia’s oil capacity. Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility for the two attacks which left Saudi oil facilities in flames and knocked out production of 5.7 million barrels of oil and natural gas per day. The loss of production is equivalent to five percent of the world’s oil capacity.

Per CNN, Houthis said that they attacked two facilities of Aramco, the Saudi state-owned oil company, at  Abqaiq and Khurais. The attacks reportedly involved 10 drones and left the oil facilities in flames. The Saudis said that the fires were under control. It is not known how long oil production will be affected by the attacks.

Oil prices will probably rise when markets open next week. "Abqaiq is perhaps the most critical facility in the world for oil supply. Oil prices will jump on this attack," Jason Bordoff, founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, said in a statement.

"Sanctioned Iran supplies are another source of potential additional oil," Bordoff said. "But [US President Donald] Trump has already shown he is willing to pursue a maximum pressure campaign even when oil prices spike. If anything, the risk of tit-for-tat regional escalation that pushes oil prices even higher has gone up significantly."

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed the attacks on Iran in a tweet, saying, “Amid all the calls for de-escalation, Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply.  There is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.”

https://twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/1172963090746548225?s=20

While Pompeo did not cite evidence that Iran was behind the attacks, Iran has long used the Houthis as a proxy in their cold war with the Saudis. The cold war turned hot in 2015 when Saudi Arabia intervened on behalf of the government in the Yemeni civil war. The Houthi rebels, who are predominantly Shia Muslims, are backed by Iran and were in danger of taking over the country which borders Saudi Arabia at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula. The Saudis, who are Sunni Muslims, led a multinational coalition to aid the Yemeni government. At the time, the Saudis predicted that the fighting would only last a few months, but the war is still ongoing four years later.

The new unrest in the Middle East could affect the US in a couple of ways. First, the blow to global oil supplies is likely to drive up oil prices. Uncertainty about the future of Middle East oil production could also cause prices to go higher. With signs that the US and global economies are already slowing, higher energy costs could further slow growth.

If the attacks can be firmly linked to Iran, Saudi Arabia and the US may reciprocate with reprisals. In June, President Trump approved and then canceled an attack on Iran after the Iranians attacked several ships in the Persian Gulf.

There seem to be few options for a response to the attack. Iran seems determined to cause a confrontation. Their past behavior indicates that if the Saudis and the US do not take action then the Iranians will ratchet up their aggressive behavior.

After President Trump’s abortive attack and recent revelations that he may be considering extending a $15 billion credit line to Iran if the nation comes back into compliance with President Obama’s nuclear deal, which President Trump canceled in 2018, the Iranians almost certainly view Trump as a weak and indecisive leader and are seeking to find out how far they can push him. Since the rise of the Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979, Iran has had little love for Americans and Trump’s rejection of the nuclear deal was like a slap in the face.

The attack on Saudi oil production is one of those stories that is easy to overlook amid concerns about whether Beto O’Rourke’s threat to confiscate AR-15s and the culture wars about gender and abortion, but it may ultimately be of much greater importance than most topics being discussed. The event could impact the US and the world in much the same way as Saddam Hussein’s 1990 invasion of a small Middle Eastern country that most Americans had never heard of.

President Trump does not want war with Iran. The president is essentially an isolationist who wants to bring American soldiers home rather than dispatching them to a new front. War with Iran, if it did not reach a rapid and successful conclusion, would also complicate President Trump’s reelection campaign. The problem for Trump is that the Iranians sense that he does not want war and realize that this gives them an opportunity to run amok.

Taking military action against Iran runs the risk of igniting the Middle East in a regional war that could end up as another Iraq or Afghanistan. Not taking action is also risky, however. If Iran is allowed to act with impunity, the rogue nation will only be encouraged to continue its aggression.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Yemen suicide attack may have been intended for US warship

A Saudi frigate was attacked by Yemeni rebels in the Red Sea on Monday. Now Fox News is reporting that the attack, which left two Saudi sailors dead and three wounded, may have been intended for a US Navy warship.

The Saudi ship was originally believed to have been hit by a missile fired by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Based on a video of the attack, officials now believe that the attack was carried out by a suicide bomber in a small boat. This is similar to the attack on the USS Cole in 2000 which was carried out in the Yemeni port of Aden and killed 17 US sailors.

Fox reports that on the video of Monday’s attack, a voice can be heard shouting in Arabic, “Death to America, Death to Israel, Death to the Jews.” The recording prompted US defense analysts to believe that the attack may have been carried out as a practice run for an attack on a US ship or that the Saudi ship may have been misidentified as an American ship.

American ships do inhabit the Red Sea waters near Yemen. Last October, the USS Mason and the USS Ponce were attacked by anti-ship missiles in the same area. The USNI News reported that the Mason fired three defensive SM-2 missiles and a single Evolved Seasparrow missile to destroy the attacking Houthi missiles.

It is also possible that Monday’s attack was meant for the Saudi ship. Saudi Arabia leads a coalition of Gulf states in an intervention in Yemen to support Yemen’s government in its civil war. Yemen’s government is fighting al-Qaeda as well as the Houthi tribesmen, who are backed by Iran.

If Iran uses its proxy forces to attack an American ship, it would be a dramatic escalation scarcely a week after President Trump’s inauguration. The suicide attack came just as Iran launched a medium-range missile test in violation of President Obama’s nuclear deal and a UN resolution.

Originally published on The Resurgent

Trump's First Drone Strike Kills Three in Yemen

MQ-9 Reaper drone (Staff Sgt. Brian Ferguso  USAF/freestockphotos.biz)

The first drone strike of the new Trump Administration is reported to have occurred in Yemen. Local security and tribal officials told the Associated Press that the two strikes on Saturday, the day after President Trump’s inauguration, killed three al-Qaeda officials. The strikes reportedly killed Abu Anis al-Abi, an area field commander for al-Qaeda, and two others who were not identified by AP.

Drone strikes in Yemen are nothing new. Standoff missile attacks by the unmanned aircraft were the Obama Administration’s weapon of choice in the War on Terror. According to Newsweek, between January 2009 and December 2016, President Obama ordered 526 drone strikes in various countries.

It was a 2011 drone attack in Yemen ordered by Obama that killed Anwar al-Awlaki, a member of al-Qaeda who was a US citizen. This attack in particular was criticized from both the right and left. Leftists have been critical of the drone war in general while many conservatives condemned the killing of an American citizen without a trial even though Awlaki was beyond the reach of the US criminal justice system.

Yemen’s role in the War on Terror goes back beyond the September 11 attacks. In October 2000, the USS Cole was attacked by al-Qaeda suicide bombers while on a refueling stop in Aden, killing 17 US sailors. The attack was one of several that foreshadowed the worst terror attack in US history.

Today, Yemen is engaged in a civil war that involves both al-Qaeda and Iran-backed Shia rebels from the Houthi tribe. A Sunni coalition led by Saudi Arabia is supporting forces loyal to President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, who is also backed by the US.

During the campaign, Trump supported drone strikes, saying, “The U.S. needs to use all means necessary to combat terrorism,” but argued that the US should not get involved in the Yemeni civil war. 

Originally published on The Resurgent

Iranian film says Muslim messiah returning soon

Ahmadinejad (Daniella Zalcman http://dan.iella.net/)

A documentary video, “The Coming is Near,” released on March 28 by the Iranian government promotes the idea that the Mahdi, an apocalyptic Muslim messiah, is about to return to usher a new Islamic civilization.  The documentary is based in Twelver Muslim theology to which many of Iran’s highest leaders subscribe. 

Twelver Muslims are a branch of Shia (Shiite) Islam.  Shiites and Sunnis, two factions prominent in the Iraq War, split after the death of Muhammad in A.D. 632 in a disagreement over who his successor should be.  Sunnis, the dominant branch of Islam, believe that leadership should be by elected leaders, while Shiites believe that Muslim leaders should come from Muhammad’s family line.  The Shia believe that there were twelve such leaders, called imams, although many Shia religious leaders use the title today.

The twelfth imam, Imam al-Mahdi, lived in Samarra, Iraq and was last seen in A.D. 874.  Twelvers believe that the Mahdi is in “occultation,” in the spirit world, where he is still alive.  They believe that he will one day return during a time of world chaos to usher in a worldwide Islamic caliphate (kingdom). 

According to the Iranian documentary (you can see a translated version here), the second coming of the Mahdi will occur in the near future.   Although the Mahdi is not mentioned in the Koran, his return is discussed the hadiths, collections of narrative sayings by Islamic leaders.  Some of the signs of the Mahdi’s return discussed in the film include fear, earthquakes, and sedition throughout the world.  Cultural decay, such as adultery, homosexuality, and women not wearing the hejab (head scarf and/or veil) are also cited.

The film addresses recent world events and singles out the United States and Israel as sources of evil in the world.  It also specifically points to several nations that the film’s producers believe are keys to the return of the Mahdi.  Most obviously, Iraq, home to many of the world’s Shiites, is mentioned.  Twelvers believe that Iraq will be central to the conflicts that precede the Mahdi’s return as well as the eventual  capitol of the Mahdi’s worldwide Islamic caliphate.  In the final battle against Israel, Iraqi forces will march under flags that say “Alghovah.”

The film also mentions Yemen, one of many Arab nations where protesters are demanding the resignation of the ruling authoritarian government.  The film focuses on the Shiite guerillas allied with al-Qaeda.  Yemen was the origin of several bombs sent to the U.S. and U.K. in October 2010.  According to the hadiths about the Mahdi, Yemen will be the embroiled in a revolution prior to the Mahdi’s second coming.  When the Mahdi returns, one of his first battles will be against an army of one of the Yemeni tribes.  Yemeni soldiers will be among the first to enter Mecca after the Mahdi’s return.

The hadiths also refer to turmoil in Egypt.  The filmmakers say that that the people of Egypt were prophesied to rise up and kill their leader, plunging the country into turmoil.  The people of Egypt recently ousted their dictator, Hosni Mubarak, but they did not kill him.  Thus far, the Egyptian revolution has been relatively peaceful.

Saudi Arabia, the location of Mecca, also is found the film’s interpretation of Islamic prophecy.  The hadiths mention a royal line that some Muslim theologians believe is the house of Saud.  The death of a Saudi king named Abdullah is one of the key signs of the Mahdi’s return.  The current king of Saudi Arabia is named Abdullah and is suffering from an unspecified and possibly life-threatening illness.

It is perhaps unsurprising to anyone familiar with the Middle East that the Twelvers believe that Palestine (Israel) is also central to their end-time prophecies.  Imam Ali, the first imam after the Sunni-Shia split, said that Jews would come from the west and take control of Palestine while Arabs were divided.  According the film, Jewish control would last “until the time that the Arabs rid themselves of the influence of others, take back control of their affairs, and once again have strong determination.  At that time, they shall conquer the land of Palestine and the Arabs will be victorious and united.”  The destruction of Israel is the most important event marking the Mahdi’s return.

Khamenei (Dragonfire1024/Wikimedia)

Also unsurprising is the Iranian view of Iran’s role in the Mahdi’s return.  The filmmakers believe that the 1979 revolution was a precursor to the Mahdi’s return and that Iran’s purpose is to prepare the way for the Mahdi.  Muhammad is believed to have said, “In the end of time, descendents of Imam Ali will join ranks, their hearts close to one another through the cause of Ruhollah.”  The film depicts this is a reference to the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who they believe fulfills the prophecy of the man from Qom (a city in Iran where Khomeini studied). 

Imam Bagher, the fifth imam, is quoted in the film as saying, “I can see that the oppressed will rise from the East and request their rights and justice, but when it is ignored, they draw their swords and confront the enemy and that is how they succeed.  But they are not satisfied until all will revolt to see the guidance of the last messiah and their killed will be one of Martyrs.”

The film also discusses the primary characters in the Mahdi prophecies.  The Sofiani is only briefly mentioned in the film, but other sources indicate that this is a bloodthirsty leader with links to Syria.  The Sofiani will send an army to oppose the Mahdi.  He will also kill women and children.  Ironically, suicide bombers, terrorists, and Arab dictators all make war on women and children.

Seyed Khorasani is another prominent figure.  The film says that he is a high official who controls a great army and will pass the flag of Islam to the Mahdi.  He will reportedly be from the town of Bani Hashem and the province of Khorasan (although Bani Hashem is in Hormozgan rather than Khorasan).  He will also have a sign or disorder in his right hand and is associated with black flags.  The film claims that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may be Seyed Khorasani.  Khamenei is from Mashad, which is in Khorasan, and his right arm has been paralyzed since an assassination attempt in 1981.

The Yamani is also named in the film.  Yamani is a soldier of the Mahdi with strong ties to Yemen.  The film points to Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the terrorist group Hezbollah, as the Yamani.  The film claims that he was born in Yemen and immigrated to Lebanon, but western sources indicate that he was actually born in Beirut.

Finally, Shoeib-Ebne Saleh is the commander-in-chief appointed 72 months prior to the Mahdi’s second coming.  Saleh is appointed by Seyed Khorasani with the goal of capturing Jerusalem.  Not surprisingly, the identity of Shoeib-Ebne Saleh is purported to be none other than Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.  Ahmadinejad was took office on August 6, 2005.  In the estimation of the filmmakers, end time events will be occurring 72 months, six years, after Ahmadinejad’s inauguration.  That will be this August. 

Putin and Khamenei.  Ezekiel prophesied an alliance between Russia and Iran (www.kremlin.ru.)

Accordingly, Ayatollah Khamenei is quoted in the film as saying,   “I can tell you with utmost confidence:  The promise of Allah for The Coming and the establishment of a new Islamic civilization is on its way.”  The approaching date of August 2011 also explains the title of the documentary.  The leaders of Iran truly believe that the emergence of their Islamic messiah is only a few months from occurring. 

Many Georgians might be surprised to know that there is a Twelver Shia congregation in Atlanta.  The Dar-e-Abbas Islamic Center in Lilburn describes itself as adhering to the “Ashari (Twelver) Shiah tradition of Islam” on its Facebook page.  Several attempts were made to contact Dar-e-Abbas by email and telephone, but thus far no response has been received. 

Many western observers, particularly those who are secular, may discount the effect of Twelver prophetic beliefs on the geopolitical actions of Iran’s leadership.  However, Ahmadinejad and Khamenei have a long history of working to prepare the world for the Mahdi.  Their goal of a Muslim Jerusalem and an Islamic caliphate extending around the world puts them on a collision course, not only with Israel, but with the United States and most of the rest of the world.  If the Iranian regime obtains nuclear weapons, they may set in motion events that will spark a large-scale atomic holy war.

http://www.examiner.com/conservative-in-atlanta/iran-film-says-muslim-messiah-is-near">