Republican presidential candidates for 2012

Hucabee (David Ball/Wikimedia)

In spite of the weaknesses of President Obama’s policies and his growing unpopularity, Republican challengers in 2012 may well have a tough time winning the presidency.  The likely slate of Republican challengers all have significant weaknesses that would lead to a difficult campaign. 

One of the leading Republican challengers is the man who won Georgia’s Republican delegates in 2008.  Mike Huckabee is a former governor of Arkansas and current television host on Fox News.  Huckabee is also a former pastor and author of several books, including the recently released A Simple Christmas.  Huckabee is a solid conservative, in spite of being denounced by several other candidates and talk show hosts as a “populist” and liberal.  Huckabee is a charismatic campaigner who stole the show at the 2008 Republican debates.  Huckabee is a supporter of the Fair Tax.

Huckabee’s chief weakness as a candidate is his record of pardons as Arkansas Governor.  Critics have pointed to the number of Huckabee pardons, the suspicion that many of them were issued based on jailhouse conversions, and the fact that several of the people to whom he gave clemency returned to a life of crime.  The most infamous of these was Maurice Clemmons, a juvenile prisoner in Arkansas, who moved to Washington State and murdered four police officers after being granted clemency by Huckabee.

Mitt Romney (Wikimedia/Steve Jurvetson)

Huckabee also made headlines recently on two occasions.  In one instance, he commented on the Michael Medved Show that Natalie Portman’s out-of-wedlock pregnancy sent a “problematic message” to young Americans.  In the second, he misspoke about Obama’s childhood and said that the president grew up in Kenya. Huckabee is currently the host of a talk show on Fox News.

A second Republican favorite was also a star of the 2008 GOP primaries.  Mitt Romney is a former governor of Massachusetts, but a native of Detroit.  Romney had a successful private sector career as a business management consultant and executive.  Notably, he was largely responsible for the success of the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City.  He was elected Massachusetts Governor in 2002.

Like Huckabee, Romney also has some less than desirable attributes to overcome.  The largest skeleton in Romney’s closet is Romneycare. The Massachusetts state health plan, which is widely described as a prototype of Obamacare, is increasingly unworkable and expensive, just like the federal version of universal health care.  Romneycare has many of the same features that conservatives find so unappealing in Obama’s reform law, including a mandate that everyone buy health insurance. 

Romney has other problems as well.  In his past political career he has held positions on social issues, such as abortion and gay rights, that many Republican voters would find objectionable.  His socially moderate (or liberal) positions may have helped him in Massachusetts, but hurt him nationally.  Additionally, Romney’s Mormon faith is controversial for some.

The third of the top three Republican figures in 2012 election speculation is Sarah Palin.  Palin, the former governor of Alaska, burst onto the national political scene in 2008 as John McCain’s running mate.  The “Mama Grizzly” was widely popular among conservatives, but was widely unpopular among the country at large.  Although more experienced than Barack Obama (and in the supporting role on the ticket instead of the lead), she was widely portrayed as a political neophyte.  Saturday Night Live skits mocking her (“I can see Russia from my house”) and she became a laughingstock in the media.

Sarah Palin (Wikimedia/Therealbs2002)

Palin went a long way toward redeeming herself in the 2010 elections.  Even though she was not a candidate, she played the role of Tea Party kingmaker in several races (but endorsed several losing candidates as well, notably in Delaware and Nevada).  She has also authored a book and hosted a cable television reality show.  Recently, Sarah Palin was voted the second most admired woman in the US (right behind Hillary Clinton).  She remains a favorite target of the left as her recent spat with comedienne Kathy Griffin shows.

Palin has two serious problems.  The first is that, although she was a popular governor of Alaska, she faced a number of charges of ethics violations.  Ultimately, she was cleared of all wrongdoing (although only after the 2008 election).  The deluge of ethics complaints was a factor in her decision to resign her position as Governor of Alaska.  Her resignation lends credence to charges of inexperience and doubts about whether she is tough enough to be president. 

More troubling is Palin’s abysmal approval rating.  The leftist hatchet job on this successful conservative woman may have done permanent damage.  Her unfavorable ratings are very high, even among Republicans.   In a March 2011 Quinnipiac poll, Palin was the lowest ranked Republican and scored just above Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi.  This means that Palin would be starting with a significant disadvantage in a campaign.

Two Georgians are also likely contenders in the race.  Newt Gingrich, former Clinton-era speaker of the House of Representatives and architect of the “Contract with America,” hinted strongly that he is considering a presidential run.  Since he left congress, Gingrich has served on several national security and health care commissions.  He has authored many fiction and nonfiction books.  Gingrich has set up foundations for health care reform, restoring America’s Judeo-Christian heritage, and for seeking bipartisan solutions.

A Gingrich candidacy would face problems as well.  Gingrich has a long history of personal and marital problems, including divorces and affairs.  Like Sarah Palin, he has a high negative rating and was unpopular when he left office after a showdown with Bill Clinton that led to a government shutdown.  Nevertheless his leadership of the House helped to balance the budget and generate surpluses in the 1990s, a development that President Clinton took credit for.

Herman Cain (Wikimedia/Gage Skidmore)

The second Georgian is the only one so far who has formally declared his candidacy.  Herman Cain has vast experience in the corporate world.  He was an executive at the Coca-Cola Company, Pillsbury, Burger King, and as CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, a company that he rescued from bankruptcy.  He also led the National Restaurant Association and was chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.  Today he is host of the Herman Cain Show on Atlanta’s WSB AM-750, where he often is also a frequent guest host for Neal Boortz.  Cain was emcee at 2010’s Douglas County Tea Party in west Georgia.

Cain’s biggest negative is his lack of name recognition.  He does not show up at all in many polls, but is starting to gain traction after winning a Tea Party straw poll in Phoenix in February.  He has never won a campaign.  He was defeated in a 2004 bid for Georgia’s GOP senate nomination.  Finally, even though he has extensive leadership and financial experience, he lacks the foreign policy experience needed in today’s world.

Donald Trump has also hinted at a possible candidacy.  The real estate tycoon and reality television star recently spoke at CPAC and told crowds that he might enter the race.  Trump has considered running before in 1988 and 2000.  He is well known, but it is questionable whether votes would seriously consider him as a candidate.

There are several other potential Republican candidates who suffer from lack of name recognition.  New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is engineering a turnaround of the Garden State, but, like many other potential candidates, is virtually unknown to most of the rest of the country.  Tim Pawlenty, the governor of Minnesota, has a conservative record and cool nickname (“T-Paw”).  Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour’s campaign may have ended before it started with an unfortunate remark about segregation.  Mitch Daniels, the two-term governor of Indiana, is also rumored to be considering a run for president.  He is also relatively unknown outside his state, but recently angered conservatives by proposing a truce on social issues, even as the left-wing assault on marriage continues.  Jon Huntsman, Jr., the current ambassador to China and former governor of Utah, is also thought to be a possible candidate.  Finally, Rick Santorum is a strong social conservative who is well known as a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.  However, Santorum suffered a landslide loss to Democrat Bob Casey in the 2006 elections that will not be easy to overcome.

Former candidate Ron Paul rounds out the list of likely GOP candidates for 2012.   Paul is a libertarian-leaning representative from Texas and has a loyal following around the country.  He previously ran for president in 1988 and 2008, but failed to win the nomination.

In spite of his dedicated following, Paul has many negatives.  Most obviously, Ron Paul is a year older than John McCain.  In 2012, he will be five years older than McCain was when he ran against Barack Obama in 2008.  As a libertarian, Paul also has taken a number of positions that most Republicans do not agree with.  He opposed the Iraq War and is somewhat of an isolationist.  Likewise, Paul’s call to end the Federal Reserve will probably sound a little too extreme for most voters.  In 2008, he failed to win a single state and never got more than 25% of the vote.

http://www.examiner.com/elections-2012-in-atlanta/republican-presidential-candidates-for-2012#ixzz1GIrrgSS1"> 

What's Ailin' Palin?

When Sarah Palin announced recently that she would resign as Alaska’s governor and leave office a year early, it was probably one of the only things that could have could have bumped Michael Jackson’s death from the headlines, even if only for a moment.

When Governor Palin became John McCain’s surprise pick as a vice presidential nominee last fall, she became the talk of the nation. She electrified conservative audiences with her homespun humor and charismatic speeches. She became the woman that the liberals loved to hate. Her record as a reform governor, her refusal to abort her son, Trig, born with Down Syndrome, and her call to “Drill, Baby, Drill” at a time of record-high oil prices made her a lightning rod for liberal attacks.

To be fair, Palin made her share of gaffes on the campaign trail. In a moment made famous by Tina Fey of Saturday Night Live, Palin claimed that her governorship gave her foreign policy experience since Alaska was so close to Russia. The line turned into “I can see Russia from my house” in a Tina Fey skit, although Palin never actually said those words. Palin faced extremely tough scrutiny and criticism from the media during the campaign.

In contrast, Barack Obama, who also had no foreign policy experience and less executive experience than Palin was given a pass on the many gaffes that he made during the campaign. Referring to babies as punishment for sexual mistakes and the claim that he had visited fifty-seven states “with one to go” were two of his best-known bloopers, but these were largely ignored by the mainstream media. Obama was covered in such little depth, that by the time he was elected, very few people had any idea who he really was or what he stood for other than “change.”

The attacks on Palin soon crossed the line from policy differences to vicious personal attacks. Soon after her introduction to the country, liberal bloggers at the Daily Kos started rumors that Palin’s young son, Trig, was actually her grandson by her daughter, Bristol. In spite of the fact that the rumor was pure speculation, it was covered in the mainstream media as well.

When Bristol Palin was revealed to be pregnant a few weeks later, it should have disproved the internet rumor, but Sarah Palin faced even more criticism and attacks. She was alleged to be a hypocrite and an unfit mother since Bristol was not married.

On the heels of Bristol’s pregnancy came a new scandal. Hackers broke into Palin’s personal Yahoo email account. Her personal email correspondence was then posted on the internet. David Kernell, was arrested and indicted in the crime, which was minimized by the media.

Even long after the campaign was over, Palin and her family still faced attacks. In June 2009, David Letterman joked about Palin’s daughters having sex with former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer and Yankee Alex “A-Rod” Rodriguez. Letterman later apologized for the joke.

Any of these attacks would make most people have second thoughts a life in the public eye. But Palin’s problems were not limited to media attacks on her family. A former state trooper made allegations that Palin improperly dismissed the state Public Service Commissioner because he would not fire a state trooper who divorced Palin’s sister. A month later, Palin was cleared of wrongdoing by the Alaska Personnel Board. This announcement was made the day before the presidential election after the damage to the campaign had already been done.

The ethics problems did not stop there. There have been at least thirteen separate ethics inquiries against Governor Palin. Each complaint has been resolved with no finding of a violation of state ethics law. If Palin had been found to have violated the law, it is safe to assume that we would all know about it as we did during the campaign when the first inquiry was damaging for her.

There are three likely possibilities as to why Governor Palin is resigning. Many people assume that she is leaving office to work on plans for a presidential campaign in 2012, but I think that this is unlikely. If Palin were truly interested in a presidential campaign, she would still have plenty of time if he had fulfilled her full term of office.

Additionally, Palin has consistently joined Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee as leading contenders for the 2012 nomination. She must realize that a resignation will most likely hurt her chances since many people would perceive her as a quitter. A recent poll indicates that 40% of Republican voters believe resigning will her chances in a presidential run. For a candidate who is already portrayed as an intellectual lightweight by a hostile media, resigning doesn’t seem to be a smart strategy.

It seems far more likely that Palin will either retire from public life entirely or cash in on her fame. After the ordeal that Governor Palin and her family have endured in the past year, no one could really blame her if she decided to withdraw from the spotlight and return to a life of hunting, fishing, and family (of course that isn’t the same as saying that no one would blame her). Her claims that the relentless attacks against her have hurt the state of Alaska make sense in light of the millions of dollars that it costs to investigate each allegation.

In my mind, the most likely scenario is that she will use her newfound free time to enter the private sector. It has been reported that Palin owes legal fees of more than $500,000 from defending the accusations against her (citation). It is likely that she can make millions of dollars from a book. It is also possible that she could host a television show like former candidate, Mike Huckabee. A third possibility is that she might take a position with a conservative organization or think tank. She might even start her own advocacy group for issues that are important to her. Any combination of these is possible.

Entering the private sector would also have the advantage of keeping Palin in the public eye. She could continue to build her image and fight the stereotypes that the media has been creating about her. If she believes that she is well placed to start a presidential nomination, then she will still have that option.

Whatever Governor Palin’s thinking, it does seem that she has made her political future more difficult, if not impossible. It may not be an insurmountable obstacle, but at least for the moment, she is damaged in the eyes of many potential voters.


Sources:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/09/24/politics/p122617D24.DTL
http://townhall.com/columnists/JohnHawkins/2008/09/19/barack_obamas_top_ten_campaign_gaffes
http://www.zimbio.com/Bristol+Palin/articles/2/Rumors+Sarah+Palin+Fifth+Child+Abound+Internet
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/republican_race/2008/09/01/2008-09-01_bristol_palins_pregnancy_was_an_open_sec.html
http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2008Sep17/0,4670,PalinHacked,00.html
http://www.talkentertainment.com/TalkBack.aspx?art=11460
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=6004368&page=1
http://cnnwire.blogs.cnn.com/2008/11/03/2nd-probe-clears-palin-in-trooper-case/
http://www.adn.com/palin/story/855907.html
http://www.adn.com/palin/story/810569.html
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2012/40_of_gop_voters_say_resignation_hurts_palin_s_chances_in_2012
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090710/ap_on_re_us/us_palin_resignation


Villa Rica GA
July 10, 2009

The Palins Choice for Life

Recently a media firestorm was introduced around Republican Vice President nominee, Sarah Palin, regarding abortion. On one front, Palin’s seventeen-year-old daughter Bristol was revealed to be pregnant outside of marriage. On another front, Palin recently gave birth to a son, Trig, who was diagnosed in the womb with Down’s syndrome. Governor Palin, who is pro-life, or anti-choice in the parlance of most media outlets, was roundly criticized for opposing abortion in both areas.

More than almost any other issue, Governor Palin’s response to these family crises highlights the difference between conservatives and liberals. In the decades since the 1973 Supreme Court decision in Roe v. Wade, the answer to both problems from the political left has been to turn to abortion.

Democratic Presidential candidate Barack Obama made it clear what his choice for his daughters would be if they were in Bristol Palin’s position. While campaigning in Pennsylvania in March 2008, Obama said, “…I’ve got two daughters, nine years old and six years old. I am going to teach them first of all about values and morals. But if they make a mistake, I don’t want them punished with a baby. I don’t want them punished with an STD at the age of 16.”

That Obama equates a baby with a disease is telling and highlights the difference between the two positions. The left views an unborn baby as nothing more than an inanimate lump of cells that has the potential to become a baby if left unchecked. Since the baby is not human, they reason that abortion is no more a moral issue than removing a tumor or some other unwanted growth.

Abortion advocates argue that unwanted and disabled babies should be aborted. They believe that children with disabilities or who are born to parents that did not want children have no chance for happiness, and are better off not being born.

Sometimes even being born is not enough. Barack Obama helped to kill the Born Alive Infants Protection Act in the Illinois legislature. The bill would have allowed infants born alive in botched abortions to receive the full protection of a human person under the law. Fortunately, a federal version of the law was passed by Congress in 2002 without dissent.

The right views an unborn baby as a human that simply has not been born yet. Since the unborn baby is a person already, it should be protected by the same laws that protect all other people. Abortion kills a living person and thus is murder and immoral.

Pro-lifers also argue that allowing abortion ultimately cheapens all life. Since 1973, euthanasia and suicide have become increasingly acceptable. In 1997, Oregon became the first US state to pass a law permitting assisted suicides. In 2005, Terri Schiavo died after her husband had her feeding tube removed against her family’s wishes. In Holland, infants can be euthanized, even without parental consent, if the baby is determined to have “an unlivable life.” Princeton professor Peter Singer, viewed in many circles as a leading philosopher, also espouses infanticide of disabled babies, even after they are born. The next step will be to euthanized the elderly who are terminally ill in order to save resources for the young.

One problem with aborting, or euthanizing, the disabled is that while most healthy people imagine that they would be miserable with a severe disability, in reality, disabled people are just as likely to be happy as healthy people. People with a severe illness or disability adapt to their condition and often become stronger mentally and spiritually. In fact, a group of disabled activists called Not Dead Yet has arisen to oppose Peter Singer and his ilk. The list of disabled people who have made significant contributions to society is long and includes such names as Helen Keller, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and Stephen Hawking. Disabled children often have a profound impact on their family and friends even if they do not achieve notoriety.

Most American women (75%) who have abortions say that the baby would interfere with caring for dependents or that they cannot afford to care for a baby. Many of these women are young (50% are under 25, 17% are teenagers) and poor (over four times as many women who live under the poverty level obtain abortions as do women 300% above the poverty level). While carrying a child under these circumstances can be daunting, there are options that women can consider.

The first option is become a single parent. While parenting alone is a difficult prospect, it is also rewarding. Financial assistance from the government, religious groups and family may make the job easier. Additionally, the baby’s father may be legally obligated to provide child support. A disadvantage to a single-parent family is that it can be extremely challenging financially.

Another option is marriage. If the woman is already in a serious relationship, it might be relatively easy to take the next step and get married. Marriage provides a supportive and stable family environment for raising children. An important advantage is that both parents can provide incomes or one can work while the other keeps the children. The responsibility for everything does not fall onto one person. Additionally, there are tax advantages to marriage as well.

An underutilized option is to place the baby up for adoption. No child is truly unwanted. Many couples who have difficulty in becoming pregnant would like to adopt a baby. The birth mother can choose which family will adopt her baby and can even choose to have further contact with her child as it grows up.

To help women overcome the basic human instinct to not kill another human being, abortion advocates devote considerable time and energy to proving that unborn babies are not human at all. They conspicuously avoid discussing babies and instead speak of “fetuses,” “embryos,” and “choice.”

Scientific evidence gives lie to the claim that unborn babies are not human. Even at very early points in its gestation, the unborn fetus takes on the appearance of a tiny person. The heart starts beating as early as the fourth week of the pregnancy, likely before the mother even knows that she is pregnant.

New 3-D ultrasounds provide a new window into the baby’s life inside the womb. It is not known at exactly what point an unborn baby can start to feel pain, but it is generally accepted even by abortion opponents that the fetus can feel pain by twenty weeks. Many scientists believe that even abortions done much earlier cause the fetus to die a painful death. The film Silent Scream (www.silentscream.org) offers haunting, but inconclusive evidence of the consciousness of an unborn baby at twelve weeks.

There is virtually no doubt that partial birth abortion, which are commonly performed at twenty-six weeks or later, cause excruciating pain for the baby. In a partial birth abortion, also called dilation and extraction (D&X), the child is partially delivered. While the head remains in the womb, the abortionist sticks a set of surgical scissors into the baby’s skull, and then spreads them to enlarge the opening. He then sucks out the baby’s brain with a suction catheter. The head must be crushed with forceps to be removed.

A similarly brutal method of late term abortion is dilation and evacuation (D&E). In this procedure, the abortionist grasps the child in the womb with a clamp, then proceeds to dismember its body and remove the pieces. Again, the head, referred to by the abortionist as “number one,” must be crushed with forceps to be removed

One of the most dramatic pieces of evidence that point to life inside the womb was a photo taken in 1999 by Mike Clancy. Clancy actually photographed two separate pre-natal surgeries to treat spina bifida in unborn babies. The photos of Samuel Armas and Sarah Marie Switzer show the unborn babies reaching out of the womb to grasp the surgeon’s finger. Samuel was at twenty-one weeks when his photo was taken. The picture can be seen at www.michaelclancy.com/story.html.

If abortion opponents deny that life begins at conception, they must determine an arbitrary point at which life does begin. Some options for the beginning of life could include the first heartbeat, the first trimester, when the baby can live outside the womb, or when the baby is finally born.

The problem with most of these points of view is that they are arbitrary. Science has shown us that the baby is very much alive and active inside the womb long before it is born or can survive on its own. Scientific advances allow babies to live outside the womb with the help of medical technology at increasingly early stages of development. A baby that needs an incubator to live is no less human than an adult who needs a dialysis machine or a pacemaker.

Because sperm can live in the female body for up to five days, conception can occur several days after intercourse. Conception occurs twelve to twenty-four hours after the woman ovulates. The body will not know that it is pregnant until the egg implants itself on the uterine wall. This occurs between five and twelve days after conception.

If conception is allowed to occur, the unborn baby will grow according to a clearly defined schedule. The gestation period continues for forty weeks, until the baby is mature enough to live outside the womb. At that point, birth occurs. If the baby is healthy enough to prevent miscarriage and its growth is not artificially inhibited, conception results in the birth of a full-term baby forty weeks later. Therefore, it is evident that life begins at conception. It follows that if that life is artificially terminated, a living human being has been killed.

There are several medicines, referred to as morning after pills, which can prevent conception. Because these pills prevent, rather than terminate, a pregnancy, they escape most of the moral problems of abortion. A morning after pill must be used quickly after intercourse, before the woman is actually pregnant. To that end, women should be educated in the use of these contraceptive pills.

If it were as simple as educating women to use contraceptives though, abortion would be an almost nonexistent problem. Over the past few decades, sex education classes have been taught in more and more schools across the country, both in order to reduce unwanted pregnancies and sexually transmitted diseases. In spite of the increased education, almost fifty percent of women who have abortions did not use any contraceptives. Of those who did, most (76% of pill users) did not use their birth control consistently.

The effects of abortion on the mother are not often discussed, but they can be significant. Abortion is touted as an easy solution, but there are real physical, emotional, and psychological risks. In most states, abortion clinics are not required to meet the same standards of cleanliness as hospitals. Many women report that abortion clinics are dusty, smelly and generally unclean. These conditions can cause women to develop infections that can be life threatening. Infections might also result in infertility and disease.

An emerging problem with abortion is that numerous studies are finding strong links between abortion and breast cancer. In the early stages of pregnancy, the woman’s estrogen level increases dramatically. This leads to the growth of undifferentiated cells, in the breast that would ultimately help the body produce milk. In an abortion, the woman is left with abnormally high numbers of these cells that are never differentiated. Scientists believe that these cells are very vulnerable to carcinogens and lead to an increased likelihood of tumors later in life.

Psychological and emotional damage often last longer than the physical effects of the abortion. Post Abortion Syndrome (PAS) is a form of post-traumatic stress disorder. Many women experience feelings of guilt and anxiety that sometimes leads to depression and thoughts of suicide. In other cases, the guilt leads women to become obsessed with becoming pregnant again. Some women turn to alcohol, drugs or self-punishing behaviors as a means of coping.

All of these thoughts might not have been explicitly discussed by the Palin family as they dealt with Bristol’s pregnancy and Trig’s disease; they were already predisposed to err on the side of life. Although as many as 80% of unborn children who are diagnosed with Down’s syndrome are aborted, but the Palin’s strongly held pro-life views influenced them to allow Trig to be born. Similarly, Bristol Palin chose life for her as yet unborn child. With her family’s help, she will be able to raise a well-adjusted child regardless of whether she eventually marries the baby’s father.

By sticking to their principles and standing up for their pro-life beliefs, both Gov. Palin and Bristol are changing the way America looks at the choice of abortion. If Gov. Palin becomes our next Vice President, American’s will be able to see the childhood of both children. They will see that raising a disabled baby or an unplanned child is not as bad as it might seem. That, in turn, might help to further reduce the number of abortions in America and around the world. That would be a beautiful thing.

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Posted in Winner, South Dakota