Can Trump get to 1,237?

(Michael Vadon/Wikimedia)

After Donald Trump’s sweep of the Northeast last night, there is a feeling of inevitability in many quarters. Trump won Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, all with more than 50 percent of the vote. The big question now is: Can Donald Trump get to 1,237 delegates? And a second question is, with Trump winning big victories and racking up delegates, why does he continue to call the system rigged?

After the April 26 primaries, the most recent tallies show Trump with 950 delegates. At this point, Ted Cruz and John Kasich are mathematically eliminated from winning the 1,237 delegates needed to be nominated on the first ballot and can only hope to deny Trump a victory.

There are 13 primaries and 622 delegates remaining. At first glance, it seems that Trump’s road to the nomination is easy one. He only needs to win 46 percent of remaining delegates. In reality, due to the structure of the Republican primary, it might be more difficult that it seems. Several of the primaries are winner-take-all and Trump will not win all of these.

To analyze Trump’s chances, we’ll assume that he takes an average of 45 percent of proportional delegates and examine the probable outcomes of winner-take-all states. Forty-five percent is not an unreasonable number in light of Trump’s past performance and the fact that the race is down to only three candidates. It is also in line with current national polls.

The next prize is Indiana on May 3. Indiana is a winner-take-all state with 57 delegates, approximately 20 percent of what Trump needs. Polling shows that the race in Indiana is close. Trump leads by single digits and the deal between Cruz and Kasich may keep Trump from winning. Trump currently needs 287 delegates to clinch the nomination. If Trump wins Indiana, the number will reduced to 230.

On May 10, Nebraska and West Virginia hold primaries. Nebraska is winner-take-all with 36 delegates and West Virginia is proportional with 34 delegates. There is no recent polling in either state, but Nebraska would probably lean toward Cruz and West Virginia toward Trump. Assuming 15 delegates for Trump from West Virginia, he would need 215 more.

On Tuesday, May 17, Oregon holds its primary. The only poll available is a year old and does not show Trump in the race. Cruz, however, has performed well in other western states. The state’s 28 delegates will be award proportionally. If Trump keeps his ratio of 45 percent, he would win about 13 delegates and need 202 more.

Washington’s primary is on May 24. The state’s 44 delegates will be awarded proportionally. There is no polling available in Washington. Forty-five percent of the delegates would net Trump about 20 and leave him needing an additional 182.

June 7 is the last multistate primary day. The biggest prize is California with 172 delegates to be awarded proportionally. Current polling shows Trump at about 45 percent in California. He should win about 78 delegates and leave the state needing 104 more.

On the same day, Montana, New Jersey and South Dakota hold winner-take-all primaries. Trump would probably take New Jersey’s 51 delegates, but lose in Montana and South Dakota. New Mexico also holds a proportional primary on June 7. Cruz led by one point in New Mexico in a February poll, but ceded the state to Kasich in the deal between the two candidates. After winning New Jersey, Trump will only need 53 delegates. Even if he wins all of New Mexico’s 24 delegates, an impossibility, he will fall just short of the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the Republican nomination.

This explains why Trump calls the system rigged. He knows that even with his commanding lead in delegates and all the other candidates mathematically eliminated, the odds are against him amassing enough delegates to win the nomination on an uncontested first ballot.

Conventional wisdom holds that, as delegates begin to be unbound after first ballot, Trump’s chances of winning the nomination will diminish. Some delegates may initially be bound to vote for Trump, but actually support other candidates. After the first ballot, Trump’s much-touted negotiating skills will be required to convince his delegates not to flip to another candidate and to win other delegates to put him over the top. Considering Trump’s unpopularity with most of the party, this is unlikely.

Can Trump get to 1,237? It is possible, but not likely. He would need to maintain and even build on his momentum. Trump needs to win the winner-take-all states of Indiana and New Jersey as well as take about 55 percent of the remaining proportional delegates. This would mean doing much better in western states than he has done previously. Because Trump can see that it is unlikely that he will be the nominee, even though he will enter the convention with the most delegates, he charges that the system is rigged.

Read it on Conservative Firing Line or Freedom Daily

GOP race now between Romney and Paul (and it might be closer than you think)

Newt Gingrich announced this week that he planned to end his campaign soon. According to the New York Times, Gingrich told supporters in North Carolina “The campaign will go bye-bye.” Gingrich still trails Rick Santorum and frontrunner Mitt Romney in delegates.

According to the New York Times tally, Gingrich has 137 delegates. With 1,144 delegates needed to win the nomination and only 962 delegates remaining, it would have been mathematically impossible for Gingrich to become the nominee.

As Gingrich leaves the race, the Republican presidential primary comes down to Mitt Romney, the presumptive nominee, and another mathematically eliminated candidate, Rep. Ron Paul. Paul has won an estimated 80 delegates so far. Even if he were to win all remaining delegates he would fall far short of the nomination. The question is why Paul is staying in the race with the numbers stacked against him.

Paul’s strategy appears to be two-fold. In February, Rachel Maddow reported that Paul supporters were mounting a grass roots effort to gain control of delegates in caucus states. Regardless of the straw poll, Paul supporters would simply show up at local precincts and outlast the supporters of the winning candidates. In turn, they would take control of county and state caucuses as well. The strategy is working well in states won by Santorum and Gingrich.

For example, according to the Associated Press, Rick Santorum won the Minnesota primary caucus with 44.9 percent of the vote. Paul placed second with 27.1 percent. However, The Hill reported this week that Paul won 20 of 24 possible delegates and “nearly all” alternate delegates from Minnesota’s district conventions. Thirteen more delegates are at stake in the state convention on May 4 and Paul is likely to win many of these as well.

The second part of Paul’s strategy is to take delegates from Santorum and Gingrich, who have withdrawn from the race. CBS Denver reports that some Santorum supporters are turning to Ron Paul as an anti-Romney protest. The Santorum-Paul alliance won 13 of 18 delegates at the Colorado Republican convention. Colorado is also a caucus state. The Independent Voter Network speculates that Paul might similarly win a majority of delegates in the caucus states of Iowa, Missouri, Washington, and Nevada as well.

Paul’s ultimate strategy seems to be to sway enough delegates to deny Mitt Romney the 1,144 needed to secure the nomination. According to the Independent Voter Network, if no candidate wins on the first ballot all delegates will be released to vote for whomever they choose. This is called a brokered or contested convention. In this case, the convention would become a free-for-all. There is speculation that many of Romney’s delegates might be Ron Paul “sleeper” supporters that would then vote for Rep. Paul on subsequent ballots.

Paul’s covert strategy explains why he is remaining in the race even though he has yet to win a single election. In spite of Paul’s failure to win over Republican voters, he has a chance to become the Republican nominee and the only person standing between Barack Obama and a second term as president.

Read this article on Examiner.com:

http://www.examiner.com/article/gop-race-down-to-romney-and-paul-and-may-be-closer-than-you-think