President Trump’s surprising decision to cut and run from
Syria is being panned by military analysts as “a serious strategic mistake”
that ranks with such errors as President Obama’s decision to withdraw from Iraq
and the abandonment of South Vietnam. Trump’s decision to retreat from Syria
reportedly went against
the advice of Defense Secretary James Mattis and other top generals.
“We have defeated ISIS in Syria,” Trump said in a tweet
justifying his unilateral decision to withdraw American troops from the
embattled Middle Eastern country.
But other analysts, such as Jack Keane, a retired four-star general and army vice chief of staff,
disagree. Keane, now a military analyst for Fox News, lashed out at the president,
calling the move “a serious strategic mistake” with “dire consequences.”
Keane, who has generally supported Trump’s foreign policy, told
Trish Regan on Fox Business that, “It’s a decision that the president will
come to regret.”
“The obvious analogy is a simple one,” Keane said. “How you
end a conflict is more important than how you start one and history will tell you
that. When we stayed in post-World War II Germany, Italy and Japan, we helped
to stabilize those countries. We did the same thing in Bosnia-Herzegovina.”
However, he added, “When we prematurely withdraw forces
because we’re tired or it or we’re frustrated by the time it took – Vietnam, Iraq, and now Syria – the consequences
are usually unfavorable and quite dire.”
“It is not speculation that ISIS will indeed reemerge,”
Keane said. “Our intelligence services have already forecasted that. The
reality is they will come back. They are conducting terrorist operations around
Raqqa right now on a low level.”
Keane said that ISIS leaders around Raqqa had been telling
people there that the Americans had not followed through with their promises to
rebuild schools, power plants, and other
infrastructure destroyed in the war against the terror group. ISIS will use the
unkept promises and withdrawal of American troops to recruit and gain
influence.
“The Iranians, which are a much greater threat than ISIS,
will now own all of Syria,” Keane said. “That is a fact. They will encroach on
the sovereignty and security of Israel.”
Keane also warned that the withdrawal would have implications
beyond the Middle East. “Russia and our adversaries will look at this, not as a victory for the United States,” he
said. “They will look at this as weakness. It will impact North Korea in terms
of the stalemate we have with them right now. It impacts Russia in terms of our
ability and willingness to confront them
and have some impact on them. And certainly,
it’s going to impact also with China…. It’s going to encourage them and
embolden them. All these things are related to one another.”
Keane acknowledged Trump’s concern for casualties and the
fact that ISIS was temporarily on the run in Syria, but said, “The one thing I
think history has also told us is the Middle East is a breeding ground for
radical Islam and it’s also the place Iran wants to dominate and control.”
Keane said that Trump’s withdrawal is already encouraging
ISIS to reemerge. Noting that the president said he was willing to redeploy
forces to Syria if ISIS returns, Keane asked, “Why? If you’re willing to do
that let’s finish it. Let’s stay the course and finish this thing once and for
all.”
The Trump withdrawal closely mirrors Barack Obama’s
premature withdrawal from Iraq in 2011. Against the advice of military
leaders, Obama removed the US military and the resulting power vacuum allowed ISIS to flourish and gain control
over large swaths of both Iraq and Syria. The expansion of ISIS required the US
to recommit troops to the region and gave
Russia a pretext for sending a large military force to Syria in 2015.
Additionally, the Syrian unrest created a refugee
crisis that led to a wave of terrorist attacks in Europe.
The Trump policy threatens to undo progress made on those
fronts. American forces in Syria have subdued
but not destroyed the ISIS threat and provided a counterbalance to Russian and
Iranian influence in the region. An American withdrawal that allows ISIS to
reform would also likely create new waves of refugees fleeing to Europe.
Another big winner from Trump’s isolationist policy is Iran. USA
Today points out that the US-controlled eastern portion of Syria had posed
an obstacle that prevented the Iranians from being able to move by land from Iran
all the way to Lebanon, home base of their ally Hezbollah. Without American
forces in the way, Iran can ship heavy weapons all the way to the Israeli
borders with Syria and Lebanon. Where Barack Obama gave Iran billions
of dollars, President Trump just gave the mullahs something much more strategically
valuable.
Originally published on The
Resurgent
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