There are some issues that conservatives of good conscience
can disagree on and remain well within core conservative principles. One of
these is the issue of shutting down the government. As President Trump and
congressional Republicans consider shutting down the government over funding
for the “big, beautiful wall,” they should avoid falling into what is Democrat
trap.
The core problem for Republicans is a lack of votes.
Although Republicans have a majority in both houses of Congress, the margins
are slim and they lack the 60 votes required to end a Democrat filibuster. As a
legislative strategy, a government shutdown does nothing to resolve this
problem.
The only way for Republicans to pass a bill funding the
wall, or anything else for that matter, is to make Democrats and moderate
Republicans change their votes. The way to do that is to sweeten the pot. To
give Democrats something they want in exchange for something that Republicans
want.
A shutdown would do the opposite. It would be a combative
policy that would further alienate Democrats and give them no incentive at all
to vote for the Republican bill. In fact, a government shutdown would play
directly into the hands of Democrats who want nothing more than for the Trump
Administration to fail.
Further, if Republicans are determined to pick a fight, the
border wall is the wrong issue. Polling
indicates that about two-thirds
of Americans oppose Trump’s wall. Numerous studies, including one by the Government
Accountability Office (GAO), have indicated that a Trump-style wall would be
a boondoggle that is hugely expensive yet ineffective. This is especially true
in Texas where the Rio Grande forms the border with Mexico and much of the land
on the border is privately owned by ranchers who need access to the river’s
water.
Add to that the fact that voters don’t like shutdowns. When
Republicans shut down the government over Obamacare in 2013, the party’s
approval quickly tanked. In fact, Gallup
found that Republican approval sank to its lowest point ever. If Obamacare’s
failures had not turned the tables on the Democrats, Republicans would have
likely suffered a wipeout in the 2014 midterms. Through it all, Obamacare remained
intact.
The 2013 shutdown occurred with a Democrat president in
office and the GOP still took the brunt of the blame. There is little question
who would be blamed if Republicans, who now control the White House as well as
both houses of Congress, shut the government down over the wall.
As a strategy, a government shutdown offers very little for
conservatives to like. It would be an unpopular strategy used to enact an
unpopular policy, but that isn’t the worst part.
The worst part is that it won’t work. A government shutdown
would inevitably lead to yet another embarrassing defeat for the GOP and
President Trump. There is simply no way for the party to win without Democrat
votes for cloture.
Democrats would use a shutdown to tell the country that President
Trump and the Republicans are incapable of governing. It would be difficult to
prove them wrong.
Originally published
on The Resurgent
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